Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

HHV-8 seroprevalence: a global view

BACKGROUND Human herpes virus 8 (HHV-8) is the underlying infectious cause of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and other proliferative diseases; that is, primary effusion lymphoma and multicentric Castleman disease. In regions with high HHV-8 seroprevalence in the general population, KS accounts for a major burden of disease. Outside these endemic regions, HHV-8 prevalence is high in men who have sex with men (MSM) and in migrants from endemic regions. We aim to conduct a systematic literature review and meta-analysis in order 1) to define the global distribution of HHV-8 seroprevalence (primary objective) and 2) to identify risk factors for HHV-8 infection, with a focus on HIV status (secondary objective). METHODS/DESIGN We will include observational studies reporting data on seroprevalence of HHV-8 in children and/or adults from any region in the world. Case reports and case series as well as any studies with fewer than 50 participants will be excluded. We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, and relevant conference proceedings without language restriction. Two reviewers will independently screen the identified studies and extract data on study characteristics and quality, study population, risk factors, and reported outcomes, using a standardized form. For the primary objective we will pool the data using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. For the secondary objective (association of HIV and HHV-8) we aim to pool odds ratios for the association of HIV and HHV-8 using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. Sub-group analyses and meta-regression analyses will be used to explore sources of heterogeneity, including factors such as geographical region, calendar years of recruitment, age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, different risk groups for sexually and parenterally transmitted infections (MSM, sex workers, hemophiliacs, intravenous drug users), comorbidities such as organ transplantation and malaria, test(s) used to measure HHV-8 infection, study design, and study quality. DISCUSSION Using the proposed systematic review and meta-analysis, we aim to better define the global seroprevalence of HHV-8 and its associated risk factors. This will improve the current understanding of HHV-8 epidemiology, and could suggest measures to prevent HHV-8 infection and to reduce its associated cancer burden.

Evidence based check-up: the general medical point of view

Check-up is a frequent motivation for patients to see their general practitioner. The challenge lies in the choice of screening tools to accomplish an efficient, individual and age-adapted approach. In this article we review evidence-based screening methods, whose efficacy has been demonstrated by randomized clinical trials, as well as their application in clinical practice. While cardiovascular check-up has a high grade of evidence for nearly all patients, counselling to lifestyle change except for smoking cessation has been proved with lower evidence. In contrast, relatively new is the fact that ultrasound to screen for an abdominal aortic aneurysm is useful among men smokers or past smokers between 65 and 75 years old.

Solar wind reflection from the lunar surface: The view from far and near

The Moon appears bright in the sky as a source of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs). These ENAs have recently been imaged over a broad energy range both from near the lunar surface, by India's Chandrayaan-1 mission (CH-1), and from a much more distant Earth orbit by NASA's Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) satellite. Both sets of observations have indicated that a relatively large fraction of the solar wind is reflected from the Moon as energetic neutral hydrogen. CH-1's angular resolution over different viewing angles of the lunar surface has enabled measurement of the emission as a function of angle. IBEX in contrast views not just a swath but a whole quadrant of the Moon as effectively a single pixel, as it subtends even at the closest approach no more than a few degrees on the sky. Here we use the scattering function measured by CH-1 to model global lunar ENA emission and combine these with IBEX observations. The deduced global reflection is modestly larger (by a factor of 1.25) when the angular scattering function is included. This provides a slightly updated IBEX estimate of AH=0.11±0.06 for the global neutralized albedo, which is ˜25% larger than the previous values of 0.09±0.05, based on an assumed uniform scattering distribution.

A view through gloomy glasses: accuracy and bias in relationships of narcissists

Narcissists’ perception of others is marked by a negative bias in the service of their own self-enhancement. The aim of this study was to determine whether narcissists’ negative bias extends to the perception of romantic partners too. In addition, we explored whether partners of narcissists succumb to specific perception biases as well. During 14 days, 86 couples completed measures of support given to and received from their partners. The results indicated that both male and female narcissists were more accurate in detecting negative support (e.g., blaming the partner for his or her problems) received from their partners, while female narcissists only were less accurate in perceiving altruistic support motives (e.g., truly enjoying to help the partner) of their male partner. Moreover, narcissists as well as their partners displayed a negative bias by underestimating the amount of altruistic support motives reported by each of them. On the other hand, partners of narcissists were positively biased as well and underestimated the negative support given by the narcissists. Results are discussed in relation to the self-regulatory goals of narcissists and of their partners and with respect to the possible impact of their accuracy and biases on the couple wellbeing.

An investigation of the pica practices of pregnant women in Houston and Prairie View, Texas

Pregnant African American women are at higher risk of having a preterm delivery and/or a low birthweight infant. Many factors are associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes but a food habit that deserves further study in the causal process is pica, a craving for, and ingestion of, nonnutritive substances such as laundry starch, clay, dirt, or ice. This food habit is more common in the African American population but has not been adequately studied in relation to preterm and/or low birth weight infants.^ Mothers (n = 281) with infants less than one year of age who participated in the Special Supplementary Food Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) at clinics in Houston and Prairie View, Texas were interviewed regarding pica practices during pregnancy, dietary practices, and some demographic indices. Hospital records were abstracted for health information on the mothers and infants, including birthweight and gestational age at birth of the infant.^ The subjects were 88.6% African American, 6.8% Hispanic, and 4.6% Caucasian. Overall prevalence of pica was 76.5%. Pica prevalence by substance(s) was as follows: ice 53.7%; ice and freezer frost 14.6%; other substances such as baking soda, baking powder, cornstarch, laundry starch, and clay or dirt 8.2%; and 23.5% reported no pica. The women who reported ice/freezer frost pica had a higher percentage of illegal drug use and alcohol use during pregnancy. The women who reported other pica substances had the lowest mean educational level, highest gravidity, and a higher percentage smoked during pregnancy.^ There were no significant differences in nutrient intakes measured by the mean 24-hour dietary recalls between women who reported ice pica (n = 103) and women who denied pica (n = 50). The women who reported ice/freezer frost pica or other pica substances had more food cravings and food dislikes during pregnancy than those who reported ice pica or no pica.^ There were no differences in mean birthweight or mean gestational age at birth of infants born to mothers from the three pica groups and the no pica group but regression analyses revealed a possible relationship between pica, low maternal hemoglobin at delivery, and preterm birth. ^

A Wavelet Analysis of Pliopleistocene Climate Indicators: A New View of Periodicity Evolution

Wavelet analysis offers an alternative to Fourier based time-series analysis, and is particularly useful when the amplitudes and periods of dominant cycles are time dependent. We analyse climatic records derived from oxygen isotopic ratios of marine sediment cores with modified Morlet wavelets. We use a normalization of the Morlet wavelets which allows direct correspondence with Fourier analysis. This provides a direct view of the oscillations at various frequencies, and illustrates the nature of the time-dependence of the dominant cycles.