Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity

The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes. Methods. We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details. Results. The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion. Conclusions. The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes – a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth’s climate.

Predictive Margins and Marginal Effects in Stata

Tables of estimated regression coefficients, usually accompanied by additional information such as standard errors, t-statistics, p-values, confidence intervals or significance stars, have long been the preferred way of communicating results from statistical models. In recent years, however, the limits of this form of exposition have been increasingly recognized. For example, interpretation of regression tables can be very challenging in the presence of complications such as interaction effects, categorical variables, or nonlinear functional forms. Furthermore, while these issues might still be manageable in the case of linear regression, interpretational difficulties can be overwhelming in nonlinear models such as logistic regression. To facilitate sensible interpretation of such models it is often necessary to compute additional results such as marginal effects, predictive margins, or contrasts. Moreover, smart graphical displays of results can be very valuable in making complex relations accessible. A number of helpful commands geared at supporting these tasks have been recently introduced in Stata, making elaborate interpretation and communication of regression results possible without much extra effort. Examples of such commands are -margins-, -contrasts-, and -marginsplot-. In my talk, I will discuss the capabilities of these commands and present a range of examples illustrating their use.

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets

The meter-per-second precision achieved by today’s velocimeters enables us to search for 1−10 M⊕ planets in the habitable zone of cool stars. This paper reports on the detection of three planets orbiting GJ 163 (HIP 19394), a M3 dwarf monitored by our ESO/HARPS search for planets. We made use of the HARPS spectrograph to collect 150 radial velocities of GJ 163 over a period of eight years. We searched the radial-velocity time series for coherent signals and found five distinct periodic variabilities. We investigated the stellar activity and called into question the planetary interpretation for two signals. Before more data can be acquired we concluded that at least three planets are orbiting GJ 163. They have orbital periods of Pb = 8.632 ± 0.002, Pc = 25.63 ± 0.03, and Pd = 604 ± 8 days and minimum masses msini = 10.6 ± 0.6, 6.8 ± 0.9, and 29 ± 3 M⊕, respectively. We hold our interpretations for the two additional signals with periods P(e) = 19.4 and P(f) = 108 days. The inner pair presents an orbital period ratio of 2.97, but a dynamical analysis of the system shows that it lays outside the 3:1 mean motion resonance. The planet GJ 163c, in particular, is a super-Earth with an equilibrium temperature of Teq = (302 ± 10)(1 − A)1/4 K and may lie in the so-called habitable zone for albedo values (A = 0.34 − 0.89) moderately higher than that of Earth (A⊕ = 0.2−0.3).

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets

The vast diversity of planetary systems detected to date is defying our capability of understanding their formation and evolution. Well-defined volume-limited surveys are the best tool at our disposal to tackle the problem, via the acquisition of robust statistics of the orbital elements. We are using the HARPS spectrograph to conduct our survey of ≈850 nearby solar-type stars, and in the course of the past nine years we have monitored the radial velocity of HD 103774, HD 109271, and BD-061339. In this work we present the detection of five planets orbiting these stars, with msin   (i) between 0.6 and 7 Neptune masses, four of which are in two multiple systems, comprising one super-Earth and one planet within the habitable zone of a late-type dwarf. Although for strategic reasons we chose efficiency over precision in this survey, we have the capability to detect planets down to the Neptune and super-Earth mass range as well as multiple systems, provided that enough data points are made available.

Caring Minds

DEAN’S MESSAGE CELEBRATING 35 YEARS AKERS SCHOLARSHIP ENDOWMENT NANCY B. WILLERSON ENDOWED PROFESSORSHIP PARTNERS LUNCHEON UT PARTNERS WITH ALDINE ISD THE FUTURE IS HERE RETIRED PHYSICIANS SHARE YEARS OF KNOWLEDGE CARING FOR BABIES RESEARCH STARS CENTER ON AGING VIDEOS/ALUMNI NEWS FACULTY SCHOLARSHIP

The PLATO 2.0 mission

PLATO 2.0 has recently been selected for ESA’s M3 launch opportunity (2022/24). Providing accurate key planet parameters (radius, mass, density and age) in statistical numbers, it addresses fundamental questions such as: How do planetary systems form and evolve? Are there other systems with planets like ours, including potentially habitable planets? The PLATO 2.0 instrument consists of 34 small aperture telescopes (32 with 25 s readout cadence and 2 with 2.5 s candence) providing a wide field-of-view (2232 deg 2) and a large photometric magnitude range (4–16 mag). It focusses on bright (4–11 mag) stars in wide fields to detect and characterize planets down to Earth-size by photometric transits, whose masses can then be determined by ground-based radial-velocity follow-up measurements. Asteroseismology will be performed for these bright stars to obtain highly accurate stellar parameters, including masses and ages. The combination of bright targets and asteroseismology results in high accuracy for the bulk planet parameters: 2 %, 4–10 % and 10 % for planet radii, masses and ages, respectively. The planned baseline observing strategy includes two long pointings (2–3 years) to detect and bulk characterize planets reaching into the habitable zone (HZ) of solar-like stars and an additional step-and-stare phase to cover in total about 50 % of the sky. PLATO 2.0 will observe up to 1,000,000 stars and detect and characterize hundreds of small planets, and thousands of planets in the Neptune to gas giant regime out to the HZ. It will therefore provide the first large-scale catalogue of bulk characterized planets with accurate radii, masses, mean densities and ages. This catalogue will include terrestrial planets at intermediate orbital distances, where surface temperatures are moderate. Coverage of this parameter range with statistical numbers of bulk characterized planets is unique to PLATO 2.0. The PLATO 2.0 catalogue allows us to e.g.: - complete our knowledge of planet diversity for low-mass objects, - correlate the planet mean density-orbital distance distribution with predictions from planet formation theories,- constrain the influence of planet migration and scattering on the architecture of multiple systems, and - specify how planet and system parameters change with host star characteristics, such as type, metallicity and age. The catalogue will allow us to study planets and planetary systems at different evolutionary phases. It will further provide a census for small, low-mass planets. This will serve to identify objects which retained their primordial hydrogen atmosphere and in general the typical characteristics of planets in such low-mass, low-density range. Planets detected by PLATO 2.0 will orbit bright stars and many of them will be targets for future atmosphere spectroscopy exploring their atmosphere. Furthermore, the mission has the potential to detect exomoons, planetary rings, binary and Trojan planets. The planetary science possible with PLATO 2.0 is complemented by its impact on stellar and galactic science via asteroseismology as well as light curves of all kinds of variable stars, together with observations of stellar clusters of different ages. This will allow us to improve stellar models and study stellar activity. A large number of well-known ages from red giant stars will probe the structure and evolution of our Galaxy. Asteroseismic ages of bright stars for different phases of stellar evolution allow calibrating stellar age-rotation relationships. Together with the results of ESA’s Gaia mission, the results of PLATO 2.0 will provide a huge legacy to planetary, stellar and galactic science.

High Resolution Transmission Spectroscopy as a Diagnostic for Jovian Exoplanet Atmospheres: Constraints from Theoretical Models

We present high resolution transmission spectra of giant planet atmospheres from a coupled 3-D atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model that includes Doppler shifts which arise from winds and planetary motion. We model jovian planets covering more than two orders of magnitude in incident flux, corresponding to planets with 0.9 to 55 day orbital periods around solar-type stars. The results of our 3-D dynamical models reveal certain aspects of high resolution transmission spectra that are not present in simple 1-D models. We find that the hottest planets experience strong substellar to anti-stellar (SSAS) winds, resulting in transmission spectra with net blue shifts of up to 3 km s−1, whereas less irradiated planets show almost no net Doppler shifts. Compared to 1-D models, peak line strengths are significantly reduced for the hottest atmospheres owing to Doppler broadening from a combination of rotation (which is faster for close-in planets under the assumption of tidal locking) and atmospheric winds. Finally, high resolution transmission spectra may be useful in studying the atmospheres of exoplanets with optically thick clouds since line cores for very strong transitions should remain optically thick to very high altitude. High resolution transmission spectra are an excellent observational test for the validity of 3-D atmospheric dynamics models, because they provide a direct probe of wind structures and heat circulation. Ground-based exoplanet spectroscopy is currently on the verge of being able to verify some of our modeling predictions, most notably the dependence of SSAS winds on insolation. We caution that interpretation of high resolution transmission spectra based on 1-D atmospheric models may be inadequate, as 3-D atmospheric motions can produce a noticeable effect on the absorption signatures.

ON THE STABILITY OF SUPER-EARTH ATMOSPHERES

We investigate the stability of super-Earth atmospheres around M stars using a seven-parameter, analytical framework. We construct stability diagrams in the parameter space of exoplanetary radius versus semimajor axis and elucidate the regions in which the atmospheres are stable against the condensation of their major constituents, out of the gas phase, on their permanent nightside hemispheres. We find that super-Earth atmospheres that are nitrogen-dominated (Earth-like) occupy a smaller region of allowed parameter space, compared to hydrogen-dominated atmospheres, because of the dual effects of diminished advection and enhanced radiative cooling. Furthermore, some super-Earths which reside within the habitable zones of M stars may not possess stable atmospheres, depending on the mean molecular weight and infrared photospheric pressure of their atmospheres. We apply our stability diagrams to GJ 436b and GJ 1214b, and demonstrate that atmospheric compositions with high mean molecular weights are disfavored if these exoplanets possess solid surfaces and shallow atmospheres. Finally, we construct stability diagrams tailored to the Kepler data set, for G and K stars, and predict that about half of the exoplanet candidates are expected to harbor stable atmospheres if Earth-like conditions are assumed. We include 55 Cancri e and CoRoT-7b in our stability diagram for G stars

THE EFFECTS OF IRRADIATION ON HOT JOVIAN ATMOSPHERES: HEAT REDISTRIBUTION AND ENERGY DISSIPATION

Hot Jupiters, due to the proximity to their parent stars, are subjected to a strong irradiating flux that governs their radiative and dynamical properties. We compute a suite of three-dimensional circulation models with dual-band radiative transfer, exploring a relevant range of irradiation temperatures, both with and without temperature inversions. We find that, for irradiation temperatures T irr lsim 2000 K, heat redistribution is very efficient, producing comparable dayside and nightside fluxes. For T irr ≈ 2200-2400 K, the redistribution starts to break down, resulting in a high day-night flux contrast. Our simulations indicate that the efficiency of redistribution is primarily governed by the ratio of advective to radiative timescales. Models with temperature inversions display a higher day-night contrast due to the deposition of starlight at higher altitudes, but we find this opacity-driven effect to be secondary compared to the effects of irradiation. The hotspot offset from the substellar point is large when insolation is weak and redistribution is efficient, and decreases as redistribution breaks down. The atmospheric flow can be potentially subjected to the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (as indicated by the Richardson number) only in the uppermost layers, with a depth that penetrates down to pressures of a few millibars at most. Shocks penetrate deeper, down to several bars in the hottest model. Ohmic dissipation generally occurs down to deeper levels than shock dissipation (to tens of bars), but the penetration depth varies with the atmospheric opacity. The total dissipated Ohmic power increases steeply with the strength of the irradiating flux and the dissipation depth recedes into the atmosphere, favoring radius inflation in the most irradiated objects. A survey of the existing data, as well as the inferences made from them, reveals that our results are broadly consistent with the observational trends.

Scientific rationale for Saturn׳s in situ exploration

Remote sensing observations meet some limitations when used to study the bulk atmospheric composition of the giant planets of our solar system. A remarkable example of the superiority of in situ probe measurements is illustrated by the exploration of Jupiter, where key measurements such as the determination of the noble gases׳ abundances and the precise measurement of the helium mixing ratio have only been made available through in situ measurements by the Galileo probe. This paper describes the main scientific goals to be addressed by the future in situ exploration of Saturn placing the Galileo probe exploration of Jupiter in a broader context and before the future probe exploration of the more remote ice giants. In situ exploration of Saturn׳s atmosphere addresses two broad themes that are discussed throughout this paper: first, the formation history of our solar system and second, the processes at play in planetary atmospheres. In this context, we detail the reasons why measurements of Saturn׳s bulk elemental and isotopic composition would place important constraints on the volatile reservoirs in the protosolar nebula. We also show that the in situ measurement of CO (or any other disequilibrium species that is depleted by reaction with water) in Saturn׳s upper troposphere may help constraining its bulk O/H ratio. We compare predictions of Jupiter and Saturn׳s bulk compositions from different formation scenarios, and highlight the key measurements required to distinguish competing theories to shed light on giant planet formation as a common process in planetary systems with potential applications to most extrasolar systems. In situ measurements of Saturn׳s stratospheric and tropospheric dynamics, chemistry and cloud-forming processes will provide access to phenomena unreachable to remote sensing studies. Different mission architectures are envisaged, which would benefit from strong international collaborations, all based on an entry probe that would descend through Saturn׳s stratosphere and troposphere under parachute down to a minimum of 10 bar of atmospheric pressure. We finally discuss the science payload required on a Saturn probe to match the measurement requirements.

SALSA: a tool to estimate the stray light contamination for low-Earth orbit observatories

Stray light contamination reduces considerably the precision of photometric of faint stars for low altitude spaceborne observatories. When measuring faint objects, the necessity of coping with stray light contamination arises in order to avoid systematic impacts on low signal-to-noise images. Stray light contamination can be represented by a flat offset in CCD data. Mitigation techniques begin by a comprehensive study during the design phase, followed by the use of target pointing optimisation and post-processing methods. We present a code that aims at simulating the stray-light contamination in low-Earth orbit coming from reflexion of solar light by the Earth. StrAy Light SimulAtor (SALSA) is a tool intended to be used at an early stage as a tool to evaluate the effective visible region in the sky and, therefore to optimise the observation sequence. SALSA can compute Earth stray light contamination for significant periods of time allowing missionwide parameters to be optimised (e.g. impose constraints on the point source transmission function (PST) and/or on the altitude of the satellite). It can also be used to study the behaviour of the stray light at different seasons or latitudes. Given the position of the satellite with respect to the Earth and the Sun, SALSA computes the stray light at the entrance of the telescope following a geometrical technique. After characterising the illuminated region of the Earth, the portion of illuminated Earth that affects the satellite is calculated. Then, the flux of reflected solar photons is evaluated at the entrance of the telescope. Using the PST of the instrument, the final stray light contamination at the detector is calculated. The analysis tools include time series analysis of the contamination, evaluation of the sky coverage and an objects visibility predictor. Effects of the South Atlantic Anomaly and of any shutdown periods of the instrument can be added. Several designs or mission concepts can be easily tested and compared. The code is not thought as a stand-alone mission designer. Its mandatory inputs are a time series describing the trajectory of the satellite and the characteristics of the instrument. This software suite has been applied to the design and analysis of CHEOPS (CHaracterizing ExOPlanet Satellite). This mission requires very high precision photometry to detect very shallow transits of exoplanets. Different altitudes and characteristics of the detector have been studied in order to find the best parameters, that reduce the effect of contamination. © (2014) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

AIV procedure for a CHEOPS demonstration model

The CHaracterizing ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS) is an ESA Small Mission whose launch is planned for the end of 2017. It is a Ritchey-Chretien telescope with a 320 mm aperture providing a FoV of 0.32 degrees, which will target nearby bright stars already known to host planets, and measure, through ultrahigh precision photometry, the radius of exo-planets, allowing to determine their composition. This paper will present the details of the AIV plan for a demonstration model of the CHEOPS Telescope with equivalent structure but different CTEs. Alignment procedures, needed GSEs and devised verification tests will be described and a path for the AIV of the flight model, which will take place at industries premises, will be sketched. © (2014) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE).

Shaping the PSF to nearly top-hat profile: CHEOPS laboratory results

Spreading the PSF over a quite large amount of pixels is an increasingly used observing technique in order to reach extremely precise photometry, such as in the case of exoplanets searching and characterization via transits observations. A PSF top-hat profile helps to minimize the errors contribution due to the uncertainty on the knowledge of the detector flat field. This work has been carried out during the recent design study in the framework of the ESA small mission CHEOPS. Because of lack of perfect flat-fielding information, in the CHEOPS optics it is required to spread the light of a source into a well defined angular area, in a manner as uniform as possible. Furthermore this should be accomplished still retaining the features of a true focal plane onto the detector. In this way, for instance, the angular displacement on the focal plane is fully retained and in case of several stars in a field these look as separated as their distance is larger than the spreading size. An obvious way is to apply a defocus, while the presence of an intermediate pupil plane in the Back End Optics makes attractive to introduce here an optical device that is able to spread the light in a well defined manner, still retaining the direction of the chief ray hitting it. This can be accomplished through an holographic diffuser or through a lenslet array. Both techniques implement the concept of segmenting the pupil into several sub-zones where light is spread to a well defined angle. We present experimental results on how to deliver such PSF profile by mean of holographic diffuser and lenslet array. Both the devices are located in an intermediate pupil plane of a properly scaled laboratory setup mimicking the CHEOPS optical design configuration. © (2014) COPYRIGHT Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

The CHEOPS mission

Ground based radial velocity (RV) searches continue to discover exoplanets below Neptune mass down to Earth mass. Furthermore, ground- based transit searches now reach milli-mag photometric precision and can dis- cover Neptune size planets around bright stars. These searches will find exo- planets around bright stars anywhere on the sky, their discoveries representing prime science targets for further study due to the proximity and brightness of their host stars. A mission for transit follow-up measurements of these prime targets is currently lacking. The first ESA S-class mission CHEOPS (CHarac- terizing ExoPlanet Satellite) will fill this gap. It will perform ultra-high preci- sion photometric monitoring of selected bright target stars almost anywhere on the sky with sufficient precision to detect Earth-sized transits. It will be able to detect transits of RV-planets by photometric monitoring if the geometric con- figuration results in a transit. For Hot Neptunes discovered from the ground, CHEOPS will be able to improve the transit light curve so that the radius can be determined precisely. Because of the host stars’ brightness, high precision RV measurements will be possible for all targets. All planets observed in tran- sit by CHEOPS will be validated and their masses will be known. This will provide valuable data for constraining the mass-radius relation of exoplanets, especially in the Neptune-mass regime. During the planned 3.5 year mission, about 500 targets will be observed. There will be 20% of open time available for the community to develop new science programmes.

Prometheus on Mars: Nineteenth-Century Science Fiction and the Language of Romanticism

The development of astrophysics in the nineteenth century drew mankind closer to the planets. For the first time, it was possible to give serious scientific consideration to the possibilities for life on other planets. The greatest leap, however, was in recognizing what was not known, and acknowledging the limits of human intuition. ‘Ideas,’ wrote Agnes M. Clerke, ‘have all at once become plastic’. As the scientific community tested the limits of scientific understanding, it became the role of science-fiction writers to imagine the universe beyond these limits. This paper will examine the ways in which nineteenth-century science fiction used the inheritance of the poetic language of Romanticism to reinstate the centrality of human being in the universe. I will explore the ways in which writers such as Edward Bulwer-Lytton (The Coming Race, 1871) and W. S. Lach-Szyrma (Aleriel, 1883) extended the Byronic hero to envisage extra-terrestrial utopias. The Hegelian systematic mythology described by Byron and Shelley had reimagined paradise and redemption on earth. Through science fiction, this mythology extended out towards the stars. A discourse on the possibilities of extra-terrestrial life became a Romantic discourse on the possibilities of being. The Byronic hero could now find a home not by escaping the shackles of religion, but as an angelic citizen of Venus or Mars. In this way, the paper will explore how science-fiction writers appropriated the language of Romantic poetry to build a bridge between the framework of scientific knowledge and the extent of human imagination.