Weather variability, sunspots, and the blooms of cyanobacteria

The roles of weather variability and sunspots in the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, were investigated using cyanobacteria cell data collected from the Fred Haigh Dam, Queensland, Australia. Time series generalized linear model and classification and regression (CART) model were used in the analysis. Data on notified cell numbers of cyanobacteria and weather variables over the periods 2001 and 2005 were provided by the Australian Department of Natural Resources and Water, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. The results indicate that monthly minimum temperature (relative risk [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.25) and rainfall (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03-1.20) had a positive association, but relative humidity (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91-0.98) and wind speed (RR:0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98) were negatively associated with the cyanobacterial numbers, after adjustment for seasonality and auto-correlation. The CART model showed that the cyanobacteria numbers were best described by an interaction between minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunspot numbers. When minimum temperature exceeded 18%C and relative humidity was under 66%, the number of cyanobacterial cells rose by 2.15-fold. We conclude that the weather variability and sunspot activity may affect cyanobacterial blooms in dams.

Temperature variation and emergency hospital admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia, 1996-2005

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death. This study evaluated the association between temperature variation and emergency admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia. Daily emergency admissions for stroke, meteorologic and air pollution data were obtained for the period of January 1996 to December 2005. The relative risk of emergency admissions for stroke was estimated with a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model. For primary intracerebral hemorrhage (PIH) emergency admissions, the average daily PIH for the group aged < 65 increased by 15% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 5, 26%) and 12% (95% CI: 2, 22%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature in summer, respectively, after controlling for potential confounding effects of humidity and air pollutants. For ischemic stroke (IS) emergency admissions, the average daily IS for the group aged ≥ 65 decreased by 3% (95% CI: -6, 0%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in winter after adjustment for confounding factors. Temperature variation was significantly associated with emergency admissions for stroke, and its impact varied with different type of stroke. Health authorities should pay greater attention to possible increasing emergency care for strokes when temperature changes, in both summer and winter.

Socio-environmental factors and suicide in Queensland, Australia

Suicide has drawn much attention from both the scientific community and the public. Examining the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide is essential in developing suicide prevention strategies and interventions, because it will provide health authorities with important information for their decision-making. However, previous studies did not examine the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide using a spatial analysis approach. The purpose of this study was to identify the patterns of suicide and to examine how socio-environmental factors impact on suicide over time and space at the Local Governmental Area (LGA) level in Queensland. The suicide data between 1999 and 2003 were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Socio-environmental variables at the LGA level included climate (rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature), Socioeconomic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) and demographic variables (proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate, proportion of population with low income and low education level). Climate data were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. SEIFA and demographic variables were acquired from ABS. A series of statistical and geographical information system (GIS) approaches were applied in the analysis. This study included two stages. The first stage used average annual data to view the spatial pattern of suicide and to examine the association between socio-environmental factors and suicide over space. The second stage examined the spatiotemporal pattern of suicide and assessed the socio-environmental determinants of suicide, using more detailed seasonal data. In this research, 2,445 suicide cases were included, with 1,957 males (80.0%) and 488 females (20.0%). In the first stage, we examined the spatial pattern and the determinants of suicide using 5-year aggregated data. Spearman correlations were used to assess associations between variables. Then a Poisson regression model was applied in the multivariable analysis, as the occurrence of suicide is a small probability event and this model fitted the data quite well. Suicide mortality varied across LGAs and was associated with a range of socio-environmental factors. The multivariable analysis showed that maximum temperature was significantly and positively associated with male suicide (relative risk [RR] = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.07). Higher proportion of Indigenous population was accompanied with more suicide in male population (male: RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.03). There was a positive association between unemployment rate and suicide in both genders (male: RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.06; female: RR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.16). No significant association was observed for rainfall, minimum temperature, SEIFA, proportion of population with low individual income and low educational attainment. In the second stage of this study, we undertook a preliminary spatiotemporal analysis of suicide using seasonal data. Firstly, we assessed the interrelations between variables. Secondly, a generalised estimating equations (GEE) model was used to examine the socio-environmental impact on suicide over time and space, as this model is well suited to analyze repeated longitudinal data (e.g., seasonal suicide mortality in a certain LGA) and it fitted the data better than other models (e.g., Poisson model). The suicide pattern varied with season and LGA. The north of Queensland had the highest suicide mortality rate in all the seasons, while there was no suicide case occurred in the southwest. Northwest had consistently higher suicide mortality in spring, autumn and winter. In other areas, suicide mortality varied between seasons. This analysis showed that maximum temperature was positively associated with suicide among male population (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.47) and total population (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.32). Higher proportion of Indigenous population was accompanied with more suicide among total population (RR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.19) and by gender (male: RR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.13; female: RR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.48). Unemployment rate was positively associated with total (RR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.24 to 1.59) and female (RR=1.09, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.18) suicide. There was also a positive association between proportion of population with low individual income and suicide in total (RR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.48) and male (RR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.72) population. Rainfall was only positively associated with suicide in total population (RR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.19). There was no significant association for rainfall, minimum temperature, SEIFA, proportion of population with low educational attainment. The second stage is the extension of the first stage. Different spatial scales of dataset were used between the two stages (i.e., mean yearly data in the first stage, and seasonal data in the second stage), but the results are generally consistent with each other. Compared with other studies, this research explored the variety of the impact of a wide range of socio-environmental factors on suicide in different geographical units. Maximum temperature, proportion of Indigenous population, unemployment rate and proportion of population with low individual income were among the major determinants of suicide in Queensland. However, the influence from other factors (e.g. socio-culture background, alcohol and drug use) influencing suicide cannot be ignored. An in-depth understanding of these factors is vital in planning and implementing suicide prevention strategies. Five recommendations for future research are derived from this study: (1) It is vital to acquire detailed personal information on each suicide case and relevant information among the population in assessing the key socio-environmental determinants of suicide; (2) Bayesian model could be applied to compare mortality rates and their socio-environmental determinants across LGAs in future research; (3) In the LGAs with warm weather, high proportion of Indigenous population and/or unemployment rate, concerted efforts need to be made to control and prevent suicide and other mental health problems; (4) The current surveillance, forecasting and early warning system needs to be strengthened, to trace the climate and socioeconomic change over time and space and its impact on population health; (5) It is necessary to evaluate and improve the facilities of mental health care, psychological consultation, suicide prevention and control programs; especially in the areas with low socio-economic status, high unemployment rate, extreme weather events and natural disasters.

Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Sensitivity analysis of voltage imbalance in distribution networks with rooftop PVs

A comprehensive voltage imbalance sensitivity analysis and stochastic evaluation based on the rating and location of single-phase grid-connected rooftop photovoltaic cells (PVs) in a residential low voltage distribution network are presented. The voltage imbalance at different locations along a feeder is investigated. In addition, the sensitivity analysis is performed for voltage imbalance in one feeder when PVs are installed in other feeders of the network. A stochastic evaluation based on Monte Carlo method is carried out to investigate the risk index of the non-standard voltage imbalance in the network in the presence of PVs. The network voltage imbalance characteristic based on different criteria of PV rating and location and network conditions is generalized. Improvement methods are proposed for voltage imbalance reduction and their efficacy is verified by comparing their risk index using Monte Carlo simulations.

The impact of delayed blood centrifuging, choice of collection tube, and type of assay on 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations

Studies have examined the associations between cancers and circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], but little is known about the impact of different laboratory practices on 25(OH)D concentrations. We examined the potential impact of delayed blood centrifuging, choice of collection tube, and type of assay on 25(OH)D concentrations. Blood samples from 20 healthy volunteers underwent alternative laboratory procedures: four centrifuging times (2, 24, 72, and 96 h after blood draw); three types of collection tubes (red top serum tube, two different plasma anticoagulant tubes containing heparin or EDTA); and two types of assays (DiaSorin radioimmunoassay [RIA] and chemiluminescence immunoassay [CLIA/LIAISON®]). Log-transformed 25(OH)D concentrations were analyzed using the generalized estimating equations (GEE) linear regression models. We found no difference in 25(OH)D concentrations by centrifuging times or type of assay. There was some indication of a difference in 25(OH)D concentrations by tube type in CLIA/LIAISON®-assayed samples, with concentrations in heparinized plasma (geometric mean, 16.1 ng ml−1) higher than those in serum (geometric mean, 15.3 ng ml−1) (p = 0.01), but the difference was significant only after substantial centrifuging delays (96 h). Our study suggests no necessity for requiring immediate processing of blood samples after collection or for the choice of a tube type or assay.

The effect of monocular and binocular cataract blur on postural stability among older adults

Purpose: First-eye cataract surgery can reduce the rate of falls among older adults, yet the effect of second-eye surgery on the rate of falling remains unclear. The present study investigated the effect of monocular and binocular simulated cataract blur on postural stability among older adults. Methods: Postural stability was assessed on 34 healthy older adults (mean 68.2 years, SD 3.5) with normal vision, using a portable force platform (BT4, HUR Labs, Finland) which collected data on centre of pressure (COP) displacement. Stability was assessed on firm and foam surfaces under four binocular viewing conditions using Vistech filters to simulate cataract blur: [1] best-corrected vision both eyes; [2] blur over non-dominant eye, [3] blur over dominant eye and [4] blur over both eyes. Binocular logMAR visual acuity, Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity and stereoacuity were also measured under these viewing conditions and ocular dominance measured using the hole-in-card test. Generalized estimating equations with an exchangeable correlation structure examined the effect of the surface and vision conditions on postural stability. Results: Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were significantly reduced under monocular and binocular cataract blur compared to normal viewing. All blur conditions resulted in loss of stereoacuity. Binocular cataract blur significantly reduced postural stability compared to normal vision on the firm (COP path length; p=0.013) and foam surface (anterior-posterior COP RMS, COP path length and COP area; p<0.01). However, no significant differences in postural stability were found between the monocular blur conditions compared to normal vision, or between the dominant and non-dominant monocular blur conditions on either the firm or foam surfaces. Conclusions: Findings indicate that binocular blur significantly impairs postural stability, and suggests that improvements in postural stability may justify first-eye cataract surgery, particularly during somatosensory disruption. Postural stability was not significantly impaired in the monocular cataract blur conditions compared to the normal vision condition, nor was there any effect of ocular dominance on postural stability in the presence of monocular cataract blur.

Extended GNSS ambiguity resolution models with regularization criterion and constraints

This paper firstly presents an extended ambiguity resolution model that deals with an ill-posed problem and constraints among the estimated parameters. In the extended model, the regularization criterion is used instead of the traditional least squares in order to estimate the float ambiguities better. The existing models can be derived from the general model. Secondly, the paper examines the existing ambiguity searching methods from four aspects: exclusion of nuisance integer candidates based on the available integer constraints; integer rounding; integer bootstrapping and integer least squares estimations. Finally, this paper systematically addresses the similarities and differences between the generalized TCAR and decorrelation methods from both theoretical and practical aspects.

Three Carrier Ambiguity Resolutions : Generalised problems, models and solutions

In this paper, the problems of three carrier phase ambiguity resolution (TCAR) and position estimation (PE) are generalized as real time GNSS data processing problems for a continuously observing network on large scale. In order to describe these problems, a general linear equation system is presented to uniform various geometry-free, geometry-based and geometry-constrained TCAR models, along with state transition questions between observation times. With this general formulation, generalized TCAR solutions are given to cover different real time GNSS data processing scenarios, and various simplified integer solutions, such as geometry-free rounding and geometry-based LAMBDA solutions with single and multiple-epoch measurements. In fact, various ambiguity resolution (AR) solutions differ in the floating ambiguity estimation and integer ambiguity search processes, but their theoretical equivalence remains under the same observational systems models and statistical assumptions. TCAR performance benefits as outlined from the data analyses in some recent literatures are reviewed, showing profound implications for the future GNSS development from both technology and application perspectives.

Study of ICT adoption for building project management in the Indian construction industry

Building project management requires effective coordination and collaboration between multiple project members. It can be achieved through real time communication flow between all. In present scenario, it can be achieved through adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Construction industry primarily comprises small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Also, ICT adoption has been slow in the industry.---------- Research is required to assess the factors that affect ICT adoption at the three levels of industry, organization and people, with focus on SMEs. This paper discusses a component of the research undertaken to study these factors and issues in the context of Indian construction industry. A questionnaire survey was conducted and through quantitative data analysis the extent of adoption of formal Project Management processes, ICT adoption for these processes and factors including perception based factors affecting ICT adoption were studied. Results of data analysis includes identification of issues that require action at the three study levels.---------- The results can be generalized for other countries with due considerations, specifically for countries where the construction industry is similar to Indian construction industry in terms of working methodologies or for large countries.

Analysing Seasonal Health Data

Seasonal patterns have been found in a remarkable range of health conditions, including birth defects, respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease. Accurately estimating the size and timing of seasonal peaks in disease incidence is an aid to understanding the causes and possibly to developing interventions. With global warming increasing the intensity of seasonal weather patterns around the world, a review of the methods for estimating seasonal effects on health is timely. This is the first book on statistical methods for seasonal data written for a health audience. It describes methods for a range of outcomes (including continuous, count and binomial data) and demonstrates appropriate techniques for summarising and modelling these data. It has a practical focus and uses interesting examples to motivate and illustrate the methods. The statistical procedures and example data sets are available in an R package called ‘season’. Adrian Barnett is a senior research fellow at Queensland University of Technology, Australia. Annette Dobson is a Professor of Biostatistics at The University of Queensland, Australia. Both are experienced medical statisticians with a commitment to statistical education and have previously collaborated in research in the methodological developments and applications of biostatistics, especially to time series data. Among other projects, they worked together on revising the well-known textbook "An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models," third edition, Chapman Hall/CRC, 2008. In their new book they share their knowledge of statistical methods for examining seasonal patterns in health.

Fraud detection in ERP systems using scenario matching

ERP systems generally implement controls to prevent certain common kinds of fraud. In addition however, there is an imperative need for detection of more sophisticated patterns of fraudulent activity as evidenced by the legal requirement for company audits and the common incidence of fraud. This paper describes the design and implementation of a framework for detecting patterns of fraudulent activity in ERP systems. We include the description of six fraud scenarios and the process of specifying and detecting the occurrence of those scenarios in ERP user log data using the prototype software which we have developed. The test results for detecting these scenarios in log data have been verified and confirm the success of our approach which can be generalized to ERP systems in general.

Contemporary dramaturgy in theatre for young people : the conceptual shape of displacement and installation

This thesis investigates Theatre for Young People (TYP) as a site of performance innovation. The inquiry is focused on contemporary dramaturgy and its fieldwork aims to identify new dramaturgical principles operating in the creation and presentation of TYP. The research then seeks to assess how these new principles contribute to Postdramatic Theatre theory. This research inquiry springs from an imperative based in practice: Young people under 25 years have a literacy based on online hypertextual experiences which take the reader outside the frames of a dramatic narrative and beyond principles such as linearity, dramatic unity, teleology and resolution. As a dramaturg and educator I wanted to understand the new ways that young people engage in cultural products, to identify and utilize the new principles of dramaturgy that are now in evidence. My research examines how two playwright/directors approach their work and the new principles that can be identified in their dramaturgy. The fieldwork is scoped into two case studies: the first on TJ Eckleberg working in Australian Theatre for Young People and the second on Kristo Šagor working in German Children’s and Young People’s Theatre (KJT). These case studies address both types of production dramaturgy - the dramaturgy emergent through process in devised performance making, and that emergent in a performance based on a written playscript. On Case Study One the researcher, as participant observer, worked as production dramaturg on a large scale, site specific performance, observing the dramaturgy in process of its director and chief devisor. On Case Study Two the researcher, as observer and analyst, undertook a performance analysis of three playscripts and productions by a contemporary German playwright and director. Utilizing participant observation, reflective practice and grounded analysis the case studies have identified two new principles animating the dramaturgy of these TYP practitioners, namely ‘displacement’ and ‘installation.’ Taking practice into theory, the thesis concludes by demonstrating how displacement and installation contribute to Postdramatic Theatre’s “arsenal of expressive gestures which serve as theatre’s response to changed social communication under the conditions of generalized communication technologies” (Lehmann, H.-T., 2006, p.23). This research makes an original contribution to knowledge by evidencing that the principles of Postdramatic Theory lie within the practice of contemporary Theatre for Young People. It also contributes valuable research to a specialized, often overlooked terrain, namely Dramaturgy in Theatre for Young People, presented here with a contemporary, international and intercultural perspective.