A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Spatial Interactions in Hedonic Pricing Models: The Urban Housing Market of Aveiro, Portugal

Spatial heterogeneity, spatial dependence and spatial scale constitute key features of spatial analysis of housing markets. However, the common practice of modelling spatial dependence as being generated by spatial interactions through a known spatial weights matrix is often not satisfactory. While existing estimators of spatial weights matrices are based on repeat sales or panel data, this paper takes this approach to a cross-section setting. Specifically, based on an a priori definition of housing submarkets and the assumption of a multifactor model, we develop maximum likelihood methodology to estimate hedonic models that facilitate understanding of both spatial heterogeneity and spatial interactions. The methodology, based on statistical orthogonal factor analysis, is applied to the urban housing market of Aveiro, Portugal at two different spatial scales.

Dimensionality of the Rosenberg self-esteem scale and its relationships with the three- and five-factor personality models

The authors investigated the dimensionality of the French version of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES; Rosenberg, 1965) using confirmatory factor analysis. We tested models of 1 or 2 factors. Results suggest the RSES is a 1-dimensional scale with 3 highly correlated items. Comparison with the Revised NEO-Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R; Costa, McCrae, & Rolland, 1998) demonstrated that Neuroticism correlated strongly and Extraversion and Conscientiousness moderately with the RSES. Depression accounted for 47% of the variance of the RSES. Other NEO-PI-R facets were also moderately related with self-esteem.

Measuring the Economic Significance of Structural Exchange Rate Models

This paper examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample performance of three monetary fundamental models of exchange rates and compares their out-of-sample performance to that of a simple Random Walk model. Using a data-set consisting of five currencies at monthly frequency over the period January 1980 to December 2009 and a battery of newly developed performance measures, the paper shows that monetary models do better (in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting) than a simple Random Walk model.

Stability of Growth Models with Generalised Lag Structures

This paper considers the lag structures of dynamic models in economics, arguing that the standard approach is too simple to capture the complexity of actual lag structures arising, for example, from production and investment decisions. It is argued that recent (1990s) developments in the the theory of functional differential equations provide a means to analyse models with generalised lag structures. The stability and asymptotic stability of two growth models with generalised lag structures are analysed. The paper concludes with some speculative discussion of time-varying parameters.

Forward Looking and Myopic Regional Computable General Equilibrium Models. How Significant is the Distinction?

We present a stylized intertemporal forward-looking model able that accommodates key regional economic features, an area where the literature is not well developed. The main difference, from the standard applications, is the role of saving and its implication for the balance of payments. Though maintaining dynamic forward-looking behaviour for agents, the rate of private saving is exogenously determined and so no neoclassical financial adjustment is needed. Also, we focus on the similarities and the differences between myopic and forward-looking models, highlighting the divergences among the main adjustment equations and the resulting simulation outcomes.

Estudi de la variabilitat genètica de diferents poblacions europees de l'espècie Taxus baccata L. (Taxaceae) amb microsatèl·lits nuclears

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada a la Università degli Studi di Firenze, Itàlia, durant juliol i agost del 2007. Des de un punt de vista teòric, l’estudi de l’abundància i distribució de les espècies a escala regional és un dels objectius principals de l’ecologia de poblacions i comunitats, i és imprescindible per a adoptar polítiques de conservació i de gestió de la biodiversitat. En aquest context, la persistència i abundància de les espècies a llarg termini front al canvi global depèn de la capacitat de migració i colonització (flux gènic), i de l’ existència de potencial evolutiu a les poblacions locals per a adaptar-se als canvis ambientals. Dispersió i potencial evolutiu, es troben íntimament relacionats. El coneixement bàsic sobre aquests aspectes resulta particularment important en el context biogeogràfic mediterrani, extremadament ric en espècies i subjecte històricament a canvis ambientals com a conseqüència de l’activitat humana. L’objectiu general del nostre grup de recerca és aprofundir en el coneixement de les causes de l’àrea de distribució i del grau de fragmentació de les espècies vegetals mediterrànies, així com les seves conseqüències ecològiques i evolutives. Concretament, determinar el potencial evolutiu i la presència d’adaptacions locals en funció de la distribució geogràfica i del grau de fragmentació. En el cas del teix (T.baccata) el projecte que s’està duent a terme pretén estudiar la distribució de la diversitat genètica de l’espècie i analitzar quins són els processos històrics, evolutius i ecològics que la condicionen. És amb aquest objectiu que es vol realitzar una caracterització de la seva variabilitat genètica utilitzant marcadors moleculars basats en els polimorfismes de l'ADN nuclear, anomenats microsatèl•lits nuclears.

No Good Deals - No Bad Models

Faced with the problem of pricing complex contingent claims, an investor seeks to make his valuations robust to model uncertainty. We construct a notion of a model- uncertainty-induced utility function and show that model uncertainty increases the investor's eff ective risk aversion. Using the model-uncertainty-induced utility function, we extend the \No Good Deals" methodology of Cochrane and Sa a-Requejo [2000] to compute lower and upper good deal bounds in the presence of model uncertainty. We illustrate the methodology using some numerical examples.

Identification of particular groups of microRNAs that positively or negatively impact on beta cell function in obese models of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: MicroRNAs are key regulators of gene expression involved in health and disease. The goal of our study was to investigate the global changes in beta cell microRNA expression occurring in two models of obesity-associated type 2 diabetes and to assess their potential contribution to the development of the disease. METHODS: MicroRNA profiling of pancreatic islets isolated from prediabetic and diabetic db/db mice and from mice fed a high-fat diet was performed by microarray. The functional impact of the changes in microRNA expression was assessed by reproducing them in vitro in primary rat and human beta cells. RESULTS: MicroRNAs differentially expressed in both models of obesity-associated type 2 diabetes fall into two distinct categories. A group including miR-132, miR-184 and miR-338-3p displays expression changes occurring long before the onset of diabetes. Functional studies indicate that these expression changes have positive effects on beta cell activities and mass. In contrast, modifications in the levels of miR-34a, miR-146a, miR-199a-3p, miR-203, miR-210 and miR-383 primarily occur in diabetic mice and result in increased beta cell apoptosis. These results indicate that obesity and insulin resistance trigger adaptations in the levels of particular microRNAs to allow sustained beta cell function, and that additional microRNA deregulation negatively impacting on insulin-secreting cells may cause beta cell demise and diabetes manifestation. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We propose that maintenance of blood glucose homeostasis or progression toward glucose intolerance and type 2 diabetes may be determined by the balance between expression changes of particular microRNAs.

Model Switching and Model Averaging in Time- Varying Parameter Regression Models

This paper investigates the usefulness of switching Gaussian state space models as a tool for implementing dynamic model selecting (DMS) or averaging (DMA) in time-varying parameter regression models. DMS methods allow for model switching, where a different model can be chosen at each point in time. Thus, they allow for the explanatory variables in the time-varying parameter regression model to change over time. DMA will carry out model averaging in a time-varying manner. We compare our exact approach to DMA/DMS to a popular existing procedure which relies on the use of forgetting factor approximations. In an application, we use DMS to select different predictors in an in ation forecasting application. We also compare different ways of implementing DMA/DMS and investigate whether they lead to similar results.

Manipulació genètica de vectors virals per a estratègies de teràpia gènica en malalties autoimmunes

Els tractaments actuals per a la Malaltia de Crohn es basen en l’administració de proteïnes recombinants amb capacitat immunosupressora. Aquests tractaments són sistèmics, crònics i causen el desenvolupament d’efectes secundaris severs com infeccions amb patògens oportunistes i una major incidència de tumors. Passar d’una administració sistèmica dels immunosupressors a una administració local sembla clau per evitar la severitat i el nombre de complicacions secundàries. Ha sigut descrit recentment que el subconjunt cel•lular Th-17 juga un paper central en moltes malalties autoimmunes en humans, com ara la Malaltia de Crohn, Escleroderma, Artritis reumatoide o Psoriasis. Per determinar com la via del Th-17 es veu afectada durant el desenvolupament i els estadis aguts de la malaltia, analitzarem una gran bateria de interleuquines/citoquines i els mecanismes intracel•lulars d’activació/inhibició de l’activitat de les cèl•lules del Sistema Immune. En un segon pas, clonarem els gens seleccionats relacionats amb la immunomodulació de la via del Th-17 en vectors recentment desenvolupats (adenovirus quimera 5/40 o diferents pseudotips d’AAVs ), ja que hipotitzem que una producció local d’immunomoduladors s’assolirà amb una eficiència major fent servir aquests vectors, evitant així els efectes secundaris. A aquests efectes, hem començat el projecte clonant els gens de la IL10 i del receptor transmembrenal de la IL23 en adenovirus i en genomes d’AAV.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

The convenient calculation of some test statistics in models of discrete choice

The paper considers the use of artificial regression in calculating different types of score test when the log