Hydro-Meteorology and Water Budget of the Mara River Basin Under Land Use Change Scenarios

Mara is a transboundary river located in Kenya and Tanzania and considered to be an important life line to the inhabitants of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. It is also a source of water for domestic water supply, irrigation, livestock and wildlife. The alarming increase of water demand as well as the decline in the river flow in recent years has been a major challenge for water resource managers and stakeholders. This has necessitated the knowledge of the available water resources in the basin at different times of the year. Historical rainfall, minimum and maximum stream flows were analyzed. Inter and intra-annual variability of trends in streamflow are discussed. Landsat imagery was utilized in order to analyze the land use land cover in the upper Mara River basin. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the basin water balance and understand the hydrologic effect of the recent land use changes from forest-to-agriculture. The results of this study provided the potential hydrological impacts of three land use change scenarios in the upper Mara River basin. It also adds to the existing literature and knowledge base with a view of promoting better land use management practices in the basin.

A Modeling Approach to Determine the Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change Scenarios on the Water Flux of the Upper Mara River

With the flow of the Mara River becoming increasingly erratic especially in the upper reaches, attention has been directed to land use change as the major cause of this problem. The semi-distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool 5 (SWAT) and Landsat imagery were utilized in the upper Mara River Basin in order to 1) map existing field scale land use practices in order to determine their impact 2) determine the impacts of land use change on water flux; and 3) determine the impacts of rainfall (0%, ±10% and ±20%) and air temperature variations (0% and +5%) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections on the water flux of the 10 upper Mara River. This study found that the different scenarios impacted on the water balance components differently. Land use changes resulted in a slightly more erratic discharge while rainfall and air temperature changes had a more predictable impact on the discharge and water balance components. These findings demonstrate that the model results 15 show the flow was more sensitive to the rainfall changes than land use changes. It was also shown that land use changes can reduce dry season flow which is the most important problem in the basin. The model shows also deforestation in the Mau Forest increased the peak flows which can also lead to high sediment loading in the Mara River. The effect of the land use and climate change scenarios on the sediment and 20 water quality of the river needs a thorough understanding of the sediment transport processes in addition to observed sediment and water quality data for validation of modeling results.

Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: Results of a Modeling Study to Support Better Resource Management

Some of the most valued natural and cultural landscapes on Earth lie in river basins that are poorly gauged and have incomplete historical climate and runoff records. The Mara River Basin of East Africa is such a basin. It hosts the internationally renowned Mara-Serengeti landscape as well as a rich mixture of indigenous cultures. The Mara River is the sole source of surface water to the landscape during the dry season and periods of drought. During recent years, the flow of the Mara River has become increasingly erratic, especially in the upper reaches, and resource managers are hampered by a lack of understanding of the relative influence of different sources of flow alteration. Uncertainties about the impacts of future climate change compound the challenges. We applied the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate the response of the headwater hydrology of the Mara River to scenarios of continued land use change and projected climate change. Under the data-scarce conditions of the basin, model performance was improved using satellite-based estimated rainfall data, which may also improve the usefulness of runoff models in other parts of East Africa. The results of the analysis indicate that any further conversion of forests to agriculture and grassland in the basin headwaters is likely to reduce dry season flows and increase peak flows, leading to greater water scarcity at critical times of the year and exacerbating erosion on hillslopes. Most climate change projections for the region call for modest and seasonally variable increases in precipitation (5–10 %) accompanied by increases in temperature (2.5–3.5 °C). Simulated runoff responses to climate change scenarios were non-linear and suggest the basin is highly vulnerable under low (−3 %) and high (+25 %) extremes of projected precipitation changes, but under median projections (+7 %) there is little impact on annual water yields or mean discharge. Modest increases in precipitation are partitioned largely to increased evapotranspiration. Overall, model results support the existing efforts of Mara water resource managers to protect headwater forests and indicate that additional emphasis should be placed on improving land management practices that enhance infiltration and aquifer recharge as part of a wider program of climate change adaptation.

GIS layers of seafloor characteristics in the Azores region (North Atlantic), links to files in ArcGIS format

Inventory of some important datasets related to the physical characteristics of the seafloor surrounding the Azores Archipelago. The objective is to ensure that our compilation is readily available for any researchers interested in this type information but also to support institutions responsible for the management and conservation of local resources.

Aplicação de géis de goma guar no processo de clarificação de salmouras e águas produzidas

Produced water is considered the main effluent of the oil industry, due to their increased volume in mature fields and its varied composition. The oil and grease content (TOG) is the main parameter for the final disposal of produced water. In this context, it is of great significance to develop an alternative method based on guar gum gel for the treatment of synthetic produced water, and using as the differential a polymer having high hydrophilicity for clarifying waters contaminated with oil. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the efficiency of guar gum gels in the remotion of oil from produced water. Guar gum is a natural polymer that, under specific conditions, forms three-dimensional structures, with important physical and chemical properties. By crosslinking the polymer chains by borate ions in the presence of salts, the effect salting out occurs, reducing the solubility of the polymer gel in water. As a result, there is phase separation with the oil trapped in the collapsed gel. The TOG was quantified from the spectroscopy in the ultraviolet and visible region. The system was proven to be highly efficient in the removal of dispersed oil from water produced synthetically, reaching removal percentages above 90%.

Inventory of thermo-erosional valleys and streams in three ice-rich permafrost lowlands adjacent to the Laptev Sea, with links to maps in ArcGIS format

This dataset provides an inventory of thermo-erosional landforms and streams in three lowland areas underlain by ice-rich permafrost of the Yedoma-type Ice Complex at the Siberian Laptev Sea coast. It consists of two shapefiles per study region: one shapefile for the digitized thermo-erosional landforms and streams, one for the study area extent. Thermo-erosional landforms were manually digitized from topographic maps and satellite data as line features and subsequently analyzed in a Geographic Information System (GIS) using ArcGIS 10.0. The mapping included in particular thermo-erosional gullies and valleys as well as streams and rivers, since development of all of these features potentially involved thermo-erosional processes. For the Cape Mamontov Klyk site, data from Grosse et al. [2006], which had been digitized from 1:100000 topographic map sheets, were clipped to the Ice Complex extent of Cape Mamontov Klyk, which excludes the hill range in the southwest with outcropping bedrock and rocky slope debris, coastal barrens, and a large sandy floodplain area in the southeast. The mapped features (streams, intermittent streams) were then visually compared with panchromatic Landsat-7 ETM+ satellite data (4 August 2000, 15 m spatial resolution) and panchromatic Hexagon data (14 July 1975, 10 m spatial resolution). Smaller valleys and gullies not captured in the maps were subsequently digitized from the satellite data. The criterion for the mapping of linear features as thermo-erosional valleys and gullies was their clear incision into the surface with visible slopes. Thermo-erosional features of the Lena Delta site were mapped on the basis of a Landsat-7 ETM+ image mosaic (2000 and 2001, 30 m ground resolution) [Schneider et al., 2009] and a Hexagon satellite image mosaic (1975, 10 m ground resolution) [G. Grosse, unpublished data] of the Lena River Delta within the extent of the Lena Delta Ice Complex [Morgenstern et al., 2011]. For the Buor Khaya Peninsula, data from Arcos [2012], which had been digitized based on RapidEye satellite data (8 August 2010, 6.5 m ground resolution), were completed for smaller thermo-erosional features using the same RapidEye scene as a mapping basis. The spatial resolution, acquisition date, time of the day, and viewing geometry of the satellite data used may have influenced the identification of thermo-erosional landforms in the images. For Cape Mamontov Klyk and the Lena Delta, thermo-erosional features were digitized using both Hexagon and Landsat data; Hexagon provided higher resolution and Landsat provided the modern extent of features. Allowance of up to decameters was made for the lateral expansion of features between Hexagon and Landsat acquisitions (between 1975 and 2000).

Glare, a GIS tool to reconstruct the 3D surface of palaeoglaciers

Acknowledgements This research has been supported by the Leverhulme Trust International Network Grant IN-2012-140. Processing and collecting of ground penetrating data in Forgefonna was part of Elend Førre's master's project that was completed in 2009 at the Department of Geography, University of Bergen. We also acknowledge Dr Andreas Bauder for providing the subglacial topography data for Griessgletscher and Simone Tarquini for granting access to the high resolution TIN of Italy, a cut of which is provided to the reader to practice the tools (see Appendix). Referees Dr. Iestyn Barr, Dr. Jeremy Ely and Dr. Marc Oliva are thanked for their constructive comments and tool testing, which significantly improved the final output.

Impact of protected forests on rural household fuel tree planting and deforestation: Chiro District, Ethiopia

This study aims at exploring the potential impact of forest protection intervention on rural households’ private fuel tree planting in Chiro district of eastern Ethiopia. The study results revealed a robust and significant positive impact of the intervention on farmers’ decisions to produce private household energy by growing fuel trees on their farm. As participation in private fuel tree planting is not random, the study confronts a methodological issue in investigating the causal effect of forest protection intervention on rural farm households’ private fuel tree planting through non-parametric propensity score matching (PSM) method. The protection intervention on average has increased fuel tree planting by 503 (580.6%) compared to open access areas and indirectly contributed to slowing down the loss of biodiversity in the area. Land cover/use is a dynamic phenomenon that changes with time and space due to anthropogenic pressure and development. Forest cover and land use changes in Chiro District, Ethiopia over a period of 40 years was studied using remotely sensed data. Multi temporal satellite data of Landsat was used to map and monitor forest cover and land use changes occurred during three point of time of 1972,1986 and 2012. A pixel base supervised image classification was used to map land use land cover classes for maps of both time set. The result of change detection analysis revealed that the area has shown a remarkable land cover/land use changes in general and forest cover change in particular. Specifically, the dense forest cover land declined from 235 ha in 1972 to 51 ha in 1986. However, government interventions in forest protection in 1989 have slowed down the drastic change of dense forest cover loss around the protected area through reclaiming 1,300 hectares of deforested land through reforestation program up to 2012.

(Supplement 1) Selected chemical composition of Icelandic river waters and bedrock age

In this study we map the spatial distribution of selected dissolved constituents in Icelandic river waters using GIS methods to study and interpret the connection between river chemistry, bedrock, hydrology, vegetation and aquatic ecology. Five parameters were selected: alkalinity, SiO2, Mo, F and the dissolved inorganic nitrogen and dissolved inorganic phosphorus mole ratio (DIN/DIP). The highest concentrations were found in rivers draining young rocks within the volcanic rift zone and especially those draining active central volcanoes. However, several catchments on the margins of the rift zone also had high values for these parameters, due to geothermal influence or wetlands within their catchment area. The DIN/DIP mole ratio was higher than 16 in rivers draining old rocks, but lowest in rivers within the volcanic rift zone. Thus primary production in the rivers is limited by fixed dissolved nitrogen within the rift zone, but dissolved phosphorus in the old Tertiary catchments. Nitrogen fixation within the rift zone can be enhanced by high dissolved molybdenum concentrations in the vicinity of volcanoes. The river catchments in this study were subdivided into several hydrological categories. Importantly, the variation in the hydrology of the catchments cannot alone explain the variation in dissolved constituents. The presence or absence of central volcanoes, young reactive rocks, geothermal systems and wetlands is important for the chemistry of the river waters. We used too many categories within several of the river catchments to be able to determine a statistically significant connection between the chem¬istry of the river waters and the hydrological categories. More data are needed from rivers draining one single hydrological category. The spatial dissolved constituent distribution clearly revealed the difference between the two extremes, the young rocks of the volcanic rift zone and the old Tertiary terrain.

Seafloor spreading magnetic anomaly isochron map compilation for the Weddell Sea and Scotia Sea

The deep sea sedimentary record is an archive of the pre-glacial to glacial development of Antarctica and changes in climate, tectonics and ocean circulation. Identification of the pre-glacial, transitional and full glacial components in the sedimentary record is necessary for ice sheet reconstruction and to build circum-Antarctic sediment thickness grids for past topography and bathymetry reconstructions, which constrain paleoclimate models. A ~3300 km long Weddell Sea to Scotia Sea transect consisting of multichannel seismic reflection data from various organisations, were used to interpret new horizons to define the initial basin-wide seismostratigraphy and to identify the pre-glacial to glacial components. We mapped seven main units of which three are in the inferred Cretaceous-Paleocene pre-glacial regime, one in the Eocene-Oligocene transitional regime and three units in the Miocene-Pleistocene full glacial climate regime. Sparse borehole data from ODP leg 113 and SHALDRIL constrain the ages of the upper three units. Compiled seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies constrain the basement ages and the hypothetical age model. In many cases, the new horizons and stratigraphy contradict the interpretations in local studies. Each seismic sedimentary unit and its associated base horizon are continuous and traceable for the entire transect length, but reflect a lateral change in age whilst representing the same deposition process. The up to 1240 m thick pre-glacial seismic units form a mound in the central Weddell Sea basin and, in conjunction with the eroded flank geometry, support the interpretation of a Cretaceous proto-Weddell Gyre. The base reflector of the transitional seismic unit, which marks the initial ice sheet advances to the outer shelf, has a lateral model age of 26.6-15.5 Ma from southeast to northwest. The Pliocene-Pleistocene glacial deposits reveals lower sedimentations rates, indicating a reduced sediment supply. Sedimentation rates for the pre-glacial, transitional and full glacial components are highest around the Antarctic Peninsula, indicating higher erosion and sediment supply of a younger basement. We interpret an Eocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet expansion, Oligocene grounding of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Early Miocene grounding of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet.

Results of wave modelling for Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, and a reef lagoon off Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The distribution, abundance, behaviour, and morphology of marine species is affected by spatial variability in the wave environment. Maps of wave metrics (e.g. significant wave height Hs, peak energy wave period Tp, and benthic wave orbital velocity URMS) are therefore useful for predictive ecological models of marine species and ecosystems. A number of techniques are available to generate maps of wave metrics, with varying levels of complexity in terms of input data requirements, operator knowledge, and computation time. Relatively simple "fetch-based" models are generated using geographic information system (GIS) layers of bathymetry and dominant wind speed and direction. More complex, but computationally expensive, "process-based" models are generated using numerical models such as the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model. We generated maps of wave metrics based on both fetch-based and process-based models and asked whether predictive performance in models of benthic marine habitats differed. Predictive models of seagrass distribution for Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, and Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia, were generated using maps based on each type of wave model. For Lizard Island, performance of the process-based wave maps was significantly better for describing the presence of seagrass, based on Hs, Tp, and URMS. Conversely, for the predictive model of seagrass in Moreton Bay, based on benthic light availability and Hs, there was no difference in performance using the maps of the different wave metrics. For predictive models where wave metrics are the dominant factor determining ecological processes it is recommended that process-based models be used. Our results suggest that for models where wave metrics provide secondarily useful information, either fetch- or process-based models may be equally useful.

Sediment budget and geomorphic process units of the Swedish Kärkevagge, link to ArcInfo E00 files

Geomorphic process units have been derived in order to allow quantification via GIS techniques at a catchment scale. Mass movement rates based on existing field measurements are employed in the budget calculations. In the Kärkevagge catchment, Northern Sweden, 80% of the area can be identified either as a source area for sediments or as a zone where sediments are deposited. The overall budget for the slopes beneath the rockwalls in the Kärkevagge is approximately 680 t/a whilst about 150 t a-1 are transported into the fluvial system.

Abundance, biomass and secondary production of benthic megafauna on the Barents Sea shelf in 2008 and 2009

Megabenthos plays a major role in the overall energy flow on Arctic shelves, but information on megabenthic secondary production on large spatial scales is scarce. Here, we estimated for the first time megabenthic secondary production for the entire Barents Sea shelf by applying a species-based empirical model to an extensive dataset from the joint Norwegian? Russian ecosystem survey. Spatial patterns and relationships were analyzed within a GIS. The environmental drivers behind the observed production pattern were identified by applying an ordinary least squares regression model. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to examine the varying relationship of secondary production and the environment on a shelfwide scale. Significantly higher megabenthic secondary production was found in the northeastern, seasonally ice-covered regions of the Barents Sea than in the permanently ice-free southwest. The environmental parameters that significantly relate to the observed pattern are bottom temperature and salinity, sea ice cover, new primary production, trawling pressure, and bottom current speed. The GWR proved to be a versatile tool for analyzing the regionally varying relationships of benthic secondary production and its environmental drivers (R² = 0.73). The observed pattern indicates tight pelagic? benthic coupling in the realm of the productive marginal ice zone. Ongoing decrease of winter sea ice extent and the associated poleward movement of the seasonal ice edge point towards a distinct decline of benthic secondary production in the northeastern Barents Sea in the future.

Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Multi-Scale Visualization and Interpretation of Geological Relationships

Visualization and interpretation of geological observations into a cohesive geological model are essential to Earth sciences and related fields. Various emerging technologies offer approaches to multi-scale visualization of heterogeneous data, providing new opportunities that facilitate model development and interpretation processes. These include increased accessibility to 3D scanning technology, global connectivity, and Web-based interactive platforms. The geological sciences and geological engineering disciplines are adopting these technologies as volumes of data and physical samples greatly increase. However, a standardized and universally agreed upon workflow and approach have yet to properly be developed. In this thesis, the 3D scanning workflow is presented as a foundation for a virtual geological database. This database provides augmented levels of tangibility to students and researchers who have little to no access to locations that are remote or inaccessible. A Web-GIS platform was utilized jointly with customized widgets developed throughout the course of this research to aid in visualizing hand-sized/meso-scale geological samples within a geologic and geospatial context. This context is provided as a macro-scale GIS interface, where geophysical and geodetic images and data are visualized. Specifically, an interactive interface is developed that allows for simultaneous visualization to improve the understanding of geological trends and relationships. These developed tools will allow for rapid data access and global sharing, and will facilitate comprehension of geological models using multi-scale heterogeneous observations.