A Note on the Generalization Performance of Kernel Classifiers with Margin

We present distribution independent bounds on the generalization misclassification performance of a family of kernel classifiers with margin. Support Vector Machine classifiers (SVM) stem out of this class of machines. The bounds are derived through computations of the $V_gamma$ dimension of a family of loss functions where the SVM one belongs to. Bounds that use functions of margin distributions (i.e. functions of the slack variables of SVM) are derived.

SQualTrack: A Tool for Robust Fault Detection

One of the techniques used to detect faults in dynamic systems is analytical redundancy. An important difficulty in applying this technique to real systems is dealing with the uncertainties associated with the system itself and with the measurements. In this paper, this uncertainty is taken into account by the use of intervals for the parameters of the model and for the measurements. The method that is proposed in this paper checks the consistency between the system's behavior, obtained from the measurements, and the model's behavior; if they are inconsistent, then there is a fault. The problem of detecting faults is stated as a quantified real constraint satisfaction problem, which can be solved using the modal interval analysis (MIA). MIA is used because it provides powerful tools to extend the calculations over real functions to intervals. To improve the results of the detection of the faults, the simultaneous use of several sliding time windows is proposed. The result of implementing this method is semiqualitative tracking (SQualTrack), a fault-detection tool that is robust in the sense that it does not generate false alarms, i.e., if there are false alarms, they indicate either that the interval model does not represent the system adequately or that the interval measurements do not represent the true values of the variables adequately. SQualTrack is currently being used to detect faults in real processes. Some of these applications using real data have been developed within the European project advanced decision support system for chemical/petrochemical manufacturing processes and are also described in this paper

Resiliencia y variables sociodemograficas

En el presente trabajo se aborda la definición de una de las variables dentro de lo que se denomina Capital psicológico positivo, la Resiliencia, sus principales características y algunas de las variables socio demográficas que en el estudio pretenden ver el nivel de relación existente entre cada una de ellas (indirecta o directamente) en el proceso resiliente de una persona para posteriores discusiones y su implicación dentro de la gestión empresarial y sus direcciones futuras.

Analysis and Simulation of Transverse Random Fracture of Long Fibre Reinforced Composites

La present tesi proposa una metodología per a la simulació probabilística de la fallada de la matriu en materials compòsits reforçats amb fibres de carboni, basant-se en l'anàlisi de la distribució aleatòria de les fibres. En els primers capítols es revisa l'estat de l'art sobre modelització matemàtica de materials aleatoris, càlcul de propietats efectives i criteris de fallada transversal en materials compòsits. El primer pas en la metodologia proposada és la definició de la determinació del tamany mínim d'un Element de Volum Representatiu Estadístic (SRVE) . Aquesta determinació es du a terme analitzant el volum de fibra, les propietats elàstiques efectives, la condició de Hill, els estadístics de les components de tensió i defromació, la funció de densitat de probabilitat i les funcions estadístiques de distància entre fibres de models d'elements de la microestructura, de diferent tamany. Un cop s'ha determinat aquest tamany mínim, es comparen un model periòdic i un model aleatori, per constatar la magnitud de les diferències que s'hi observen. Es defineix, també, una metodologia per a l'anàlisi estadístic de la distribució de la fibra en el compòsit, a partir d'imatges digitals de la secció transversal. Aquest anàlisi s'aplica a quatre materials diferents. Finalment, es proposa un mètode computacional de dues escales per a simular la fallada transversal de làmines unidireccionals, que permet obtenir funcions de densitat de probabilitat per a les variables mecàniques. Es descriuen algunes aplicacions i possibilitats d'aquest mètode i es comparen els resultats obtinguts de la simulació amb valors experimentals.

Geostatistics for constrained variables: positive data, compositions and probabilities. Applications to environmental hazard monitoring

Aquesta tesi estudia com estimar la distribució de les variables regionalitzades l'espai mostral i l'escala de les quals admeten una estructura d'espai Euclidià. Apliquem el principi del treball en coordenades: triem una base ortonormal, fem estadística sobre les coordenades de les dades, i apliquem els output a la base per tal de recuperar un resultat en el mateix espai original. Aplicant-ho a les variables regionalitzades, obtenim una aproximació única consistent, que generalitza les conegudes propietats de les tècniques de kriging a diversos espais mostrals: dades reals, positives o composicionals (vectors de components positives amb suma constant) són tractades com casos particulars. D'aquesta manera, es generalitza la geostadística lineal, i s'ofereix solucions a coneguts problemes de la no-lineal, tot adaptant la mesura i els criteris de representativitat (i.e., mitjanes) a les dades tractades. L'estimador per a dades positives coincideix amb una mitjana geomètrica ponderada, equivalent a l'estimació de la mediana, sense cap dels problemes del clàssic kriging lognormal. El cas composicional ofereix solucions equivalents, però a més permet estimar vectors de probabilitat multinomial. Amb una aproximació bayesiana preliminar, el kriging de composicions esdevé també una alternativa consistent al kriging indicador. Aquesta tècnica s'empra per estimar funcions de probabilitat de variables qualsevol, malgrat que sovint ofereix estimacions negatives, cosa que s'evita amb l'alternativa proposada. La utilitat d'aquest conjunt de tècniques es comprova estudiant la contaminació per amoníac a una estació de control automàtic de la qualitat de l'aigua de la conca de la Tordera, i es conclou que només fent servir les tècniques proposades hom pot detectar en quins instants l'amoni es transforma en amoníac en una concentració superior a la legalment permesa.

Quantified real constraint solving using modal intervals with applications to control

Les restriccions reals quantificades (QRC) formen un formalisme matemàtic utilitzat per modelar un gran nombre de problemes físics dins els quals intervenen sistemes d'equacions no-lineals sobre variables reals, algunes de les quals podent ésser quantificades. Els QRCs apareixen en nombrosos contextos, com l'Enginyeria de Control o la Biologia. La resolució de QRCs és un domini de recerca molt actiu dins el qual es proposen dos enfocaments diferents: l'eliminació simbòlica de quantificadors i els mètodes aproximatius. Tot i això, la resolució de problemes de grans dimensions i del cas general, resten encara problemes oberts. Aquesta tesi proposa una nova metodologia aproximativa basada en l'Anàlisi Intervalar Modal, una teoria matemàtica que permet resoldre problemes en els quals intervenen quantificadors lògics sobre variables reals. Finalment, dues aplicacions a l'Enginyeria de Control són presentades. La primera fa referència al problema de detecció de fallades i la segona consisteix en un controlador per a un vaixell a vela.

Operations on Risk Variables

In the article the author considers and analyzes operations and functions on risk variables. She takes into account the following variables: the sum of risk variables, its product, multiplication by a constant, division, maximum, minimum and median of a sum of random variables. She receives the formulas for probability distribution and basic distribution parameters. She conducts the analysis for dependent and independent random variables. She propose the examples of the situations in the economy and production management of risk modelled by this operations. The analysis is conducted with the way of mathematical proving. Some of the formulas presented are taken from the literature but others are the permanent results of the author.

Biologically motivated model for object detection and identification in real-world scenes

The classical computer vision methods can only weakly emulate some of the multi-level parallelisms in signal processing and information sharing that takes place in different parts of the primates’ visual system thus enabling it to accomplish many diverse functions of visual perception. One of the main functions of the primates’ vision is to detect and recognise objects in natural scenes despite all the linear and non-linear variations of the objects and their environment. The superior performance of the primates’ visual system compared to what machine vision systems have been able to achieve to date, motivates scientists and researchers to further explore this area in pursuit of more efficient vision systems inspired by natural models. In this paper building blocks for a hierarchical efficient object recognition model are proposed. Incorporating the attention-based processing would lead to a system that will process the visual data in a non-linear way focusing only on the regions of interest and hence reducing the time to achieve real-time performance. Further, it is suggested to modify the visual cortex model for recognizing objects by adding non-linearities in the ventral path consistent with earlier discoveries as reported by researchers in the neuro-physiology of vision.

Real-time context-aware network security policy enforcement system (RC-NSPES)

The major technical objectives of the RC-NSPES are to provide a framework for the concurrent operation of reactive and pro-active security functions to deliver efficient and optimised intrusion detection schemes as well as enhanced and highly correlated rule sets for more effective alerts management and root-cause analysis. The design and implementation of the RC-NSPES solution includes a number of innovative features in terms of real-time programmable embedded hardware (FPGA) deployment as well as in the integrated management station. These have been devised so as to deliver enhanced detection of attacks and contextualised alerts against threats that can arise from both the network layer and the application layer protocols. The resulting architecture represents an efficient and effective framework for the future deployment of network security systems.

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities.

The underlying return generating factors for REIT returns: an application of independent component analysis

Multi-factor approaches to analysis of real estate returns have, since the pioneering work of Chan, Hendershott and Sanders (1990), emphasised a macro-variables approach in preference to the latent factor approach that formed the original basis of the arbitrage pricing theory. With increasing use of high frequency data and trading strategies and with a growing emphasis on the risks of extreme events, the macro-variable procedure has some deficiencies. This paper explores a third way, with the use of an alternative to the standard principal components approach – independent components analysis (ICA). ICA seeks higher moment independence and maximises in relation to a chosen risk parameter. We apply an ICA based on kurtosis maximisation to weekly US REIT data using a kurtosis maximising algorithm. The results show that ICA is successful in capturing the kurtosis characteristics of REIT returns, offering possibilities for the development of risk management strategies that are sensitive to extreme events and tail distributions.

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.