Accelerogram processing using reliability bounds and optimal correction methods

This study addresses the problem of obtaining reliable velocities and displacements from accelerograms, a concern which often arises in earthquake engineering. A closed-form acceleration expression with random parameters is developed to test any strong-motion accelerogram processing method. Integration of this analytical time history yields the exact velocities, displacements and Fourier spectra. Noise and truncation can also be added. A two-step testing procedure is proposed and the original Volume II routine is used as an illustration. The main sources of error are identified and discussed. Although these errors may be reduced, it is impossible to extract the true time histories from an analog or digital accelerogram because of the uncertain noise level and missing data. Based on these uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is proposed as a new accelerogram processing method. A most probable record is presented as well as a reliability interval which reflects the level of error-uncertainty introduced by the recording and digitization process. The data is processed in the frequency domain, under assumptions governing either the initial value or the temporal mean of the time histories. This new processing approach is tested on synthetic records. It induces little error and the digitization noise is adequately bounded. Filtering is intended to be kept to a minimum and two optimal error-reduction methods are proposed. The "noise filters" reduce the noise level at each harmonic of the spectrum as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio. However, the correction at low frequencies is not sufficient to significantly reduce the drifts in the integrated time histories. The "spectral substitution method" uses optimization techniques to fit spectral models of near-field, far-field or structural motions to the amplitude spectrum of the measured data. The extremes of the spectrum of the recorded data where noise and error prevail are then partly altered, but not removed, and statistical criteria provide the choice of the appropriate cutoff frequencies. This correction method has been applied to existing strong-motion far-field, near-field and structural data with promising results. Since this correction method maintains the whole frequency range of the record, it should prove to be very useful in studying the long-period dynamics of local geology and structures.

Multiscale model reduction methods for deterministic and stochastic partial differential equations

Partial differential equations (PDEs) with multiscale coefficients are very difficult to solve due to the wide range of scales in the solutions. In the thesis, we propose some efficient numerical methods for both deterministic and stochastic PDEs based on the model reduction technique.

For the deterministic PDEs, the main purpose of our method is to derive an effective equation for the multiscale problem. An essential ingredient is to decompose the harmonic coordinate into a smooth part and a highly oscillatory part of which the magnitude is small. Such a decomposition plays a key role in our construction of the effective equation. We show that the solution to the effective equation is smooth, and could be resolved on a regular coarse mesh grid. Furthermore, we provide error analysis and show that the solution to the effective equation plus a correction term is close to the original multiscale solution.

For the stochastic PDEs, we propose the model reduction based data-driven stochastic method and multilevel Monte Carlo method. In the multiquery, setting and on the assumption that the ratio of the smallest scale and largest scale is not too small, we propose the multiscale data-driven stochastic method. We construct a data-driven stochastic basis and solve the coupled deterministic PDEs to obtain the solutions. For the tougher problems, we propose the multiscale multilevel Monte Carlo method. We apply the multilevel scheme to the effective equations and assemble the stiffness matrices efficiently on each coarse mesh grid. In both methods, the $\KL$ expansion plays an important role in extracting the main parts of some stochastic quantities.

For both the deterministic and stochastic PDEs, numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the methods. We also show the computational time cost reduction in the numerical examples.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Formal methods for control synthesis in partially observed environments : application to autonomous robotic manipulation

Modern robots are increasingly expected to function in uncertain and dynamically challenging environments, often in proximity with humans. In addition, wide scale adoption of robots requires on-the-fly adaptability of software for diverse application. These requirements strongly suggest the need to adopt formal representations of high level goals and safety specifications, especially as temporal logic formulas. This approach allows for the use of formal verification techniques for controller synthesis that can give guarantees for safety and performance. Robots operating in unstructured environments also face limited sensing capability. Correctly inferring a robot's progress toward high level goal can be challenging.

This thesis develops new algorithms for synthesizing discrete controllers in partially known environments under specifications represented as linear temporal logic (LTL) formulas. It is inspired by recent developments in finite abstraction techniques for hybrid systems and motion planning problems. The robot and its environment is assumed to have a finite abstraction as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), which is a powerful model class capable of representing a wide variety of problems. However, synthesizing controllers that satisfy LTL goals over POMDPs is a challenging problem which has received only limited attention.

This thesis proposes tractable, approximate algorithms for the control synthesis problem using Finite State Controllers (FSCs). The use of FSCs to control finite POMDPs allows for the closed system to be analyzed as finite global Markov chain. The thesis explicitly shows how transient and steady state behavior of the global Markov chains can be related to two different criteria with respect to satisfaction of LTL formulas. First, the maximization of the probability of LTL satisfaction is related to an optimization problem over a parametrization of the FSC. Analytic computation of gradients are derived which allows the use of first order optimization techniques.

The second criterion encourages rapid and frequent visits to a restricted set of states over infinite executions. It is formulated as a constrained optimization problem with a discounted long term reward objective by the novel utilization of a fundamental equation for Markov chains - the Poisson equation. A new constrained policy iteration technique is proposed to solve the resulting dynamic program, which also provides a way to escape local maxima.

The algorithms proposed in the thesis are applied to the task planning and execution challenges faced during the DARPA Autonomous Robotic Manipulation - Software challenge.

Efficient methods for stochastic optimal control

The Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is central to stochastic optimal control (SOC) theory, yielding the optimal solution to general problems specified by known dynamics and a specified cost functional. Given the assumption of quadratic cost on the control input, it is well known that the HJB reduces to a particular partial differential equation (PDE). While powerful, this reduction is not commonly used as the PDE is of second order, is nonlinear, and examples exist where the problem may not have a solution in a classical sense. Furthermore, each state of the system appears as another dimension of the PDE, giving rise to the curse of dimensionality. Since the number of degrees of freedom required to solve the optimal control problem grows exponentially with dimension, the problem becomes intractable for systems with all but modest dimension.

In the last decade researchers have found that under certain, fairly non-restrictive structural assumptions, the HJB may be transformed into a linear PDE, with an interesting analogue in the discretized domain of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). The work presented in this thesis uses the linearity of this particular form of the HJB PDE to push the computational boundaries of stochastic optimal control.

This is done by crafting together previously disjoint lines of research in computation. The first of these is the use of Sum of Squares (SOS) techniques for synthesis of control policies. A candidate polynomial with variable coefficients is proposed as the solution to the stochastic optimal control problem. An SOS relaxation is then taken to the partial differential constraints, leading to a hierarchy of semidefinite relaxations with improving sub-optimality gap. The resulting approximate solutions are shown to be guaranteed over- and under-approximations for the optimal value function. It is shown that these results extend to arbitrary parabolic and elliptic PDEs, yielding a novel method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of systems governed by partial differential constraints. Domain decomposition techniques are also made available, allowing for such problems to be solved via parallelization and low-order polynomials.

The optimization-based SOS technique is then contrasted with the Separated Representation (SR) approach from the applied mathematics community. The technique allows for systems of equations to be solved through a low-rank decomposition that results in algorithms that scale linearly with dimensionality. Its application in stochastic optimal control allows for previously uncomputable problems to be solved quickly, scaling to such complex systems as the Quadcopter and VTOL aircraft. This technique may be combined with the SOS approach, yielding not only a numerical technique, but also an analytical one that allows for entirely new classes of systems to be studied and for stability properties to be guaranteed.

The analysis of the linear HJB is completed by the study of its implications in application. It is shown that the HJB and a popular technique in robotics, the use of navigation functions, sit on opposite ends of a spectrum of optimization problems, upon which tradeoffs may be made in problem complexity. Analytical solutions to the HJB in these settings are available in simplified domains, yielding guidance towards optimality for approximation schemes. Finally, the use of HJB equations in temporal multi-task planning problems is investigated. It is demonstrated that such problems are reducible to a sequence of SOC problems linked via boundary conditions. The linearity of the PDE allows us to pre-compute control policy primitives and then compose them, at essentially zero cost, to satisfy a complex temporal logic specification.

Advanced density functional theory methods for materials science

In this work we chiefly deal with two broad classes of problems in computational materials science, determining the doping mechanism in a semiconductor and developing an extreme condition equation of state. While solving certain aspects of these questions is well-trodden ground, both require extending the reach of existing methods to fully answer them. Here we choose to build upon the framework of density functional theory (DFT) which provides an efficient means to investigate a system from a quantum mechanics description.

Zinc Phosphide (Zn₃P₂) could be the basis for cheap and highly efficient solar cells. Its use in this regard is limited by the difficulty in n-type doping the material. In an effort to understand the mechanism behind this, the energetics and electronic structure of intrinsic point defects in zinc phosphide are studied using generalized Kohn-Sham theory and utilizing the Heyd, Scuseria, and Ernzerhof (HSE) hybrid functional for exchange and correlation. Novel 'perturbation extrapolation' is utilized to extend the use of the computationally expensive HSE functional to this large-scale defect system. According to calculations, the formation energy of charged phosphorus interstitial defects are very low in n-type Zn₃P₂ and act as 'electron sinks', nullifying the desired doping and lowering the fermi-level back towards the p-type regime. Going forward, this insight provides clues to fabricating useful zinc phosphide based devices. In addition, the methodology developed for this work can be applied to further doping studies in other systems.

Accurate determination of high pressure and temperature equations of state is fundamental in a variety of fields. However, it is often very difficult to cover a wide range of temperatures and pressures in an laboratory setting. Here we develop methods to determine a multi-phase equation of state for Ta through computation. The typical means of investigating thermodynamic properties is via ’classical’ molecular dynamics where the atomic motion is calculated from Newtonian mechanics with the electronic effects abstracted away into an interatomic potential function. For our purposes, a ’first principles’ approach such as DFT is useful as a classical potential is typically valid for only a portion of the phase diagram (i.e. whatever part it has been fit to). Furthermore, for extremes of temperature and pressure quantum effects become critical to accurately capture an equation of state and are very hard to capture in even complex model potentials. This requires extending the inherently zero temperature DFT to predict the finite temperature response of the system. Statistical modelling and thermodynamic integration is used to extend our results over all phases, as well as phase-coexistence regions which are at the limits of typical DFT validity. We deliver the most comprehensive and accurate equation of state that has been done for Ta. This work also lends insights that can be applied to further equation of state work in many other materials.

Monitoring fish populations in Lower Lough Erne, Northern Ireland: applicability of current methods and implications for future monitoring under the EC Water Framework Directive

The proposed EC Water Framework Directive (WFD) will require member states to monitor both biotic and abiotic components of lake environments. With adoption of the WFD some measurement of fish populations will also be required. This paper describes work carried out since 1971, and particularly since 1991, on the status of fish populations in Lower Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, with an emphasis on defining change over time due to human impacts on the lake. This offers a reasonable starting point from which to develop a monitoring programme suitable for the needs of the WFD in this lake. The implications for as yet unmonitored fish populations in lakes are also determined.

Radar methods for the exploration of glaciers

The problem of finding the depths of glaciers and the current methods are discussed briefly. Radar methods are suggested as a possible improvement for, or adjunct to, seismic and gravity survey methods. The feasibility of propagating electromagnetic waves in ice and the maximum range to be expected are then investigated theoretically with the aid of experimental data on the dielectric properties of ice. It is found that the maximum expected range is great enough to measure the depth of many glaciers at the lower radar frequencies if there is not too much liquid water present. Greater ranges can be attained by going to lower frequencies.

The results are given of two expeditions in two different years to the Seward Glacier in the Yukon Territory. Experiments were conducted on a small valley glacier whose depth was determined by seismic sounding. Many echoes were received but their identification was uncertain. Using the best echoes, a profile was obtained each year, but they were not in exact agreement with each other. It could not be definitely established that echoes had been received from bedrock. Agreement with seismic methods for a considerable number of glaciers would have to be obtained before radar methods could be relied upon. The presence of liquid water in the ice is believed to be one of the greatest obstacles. Besides increasing the attenuation and possibly reflecting energy, it makes it impossible to predict the velocity of propagation. The equipment used was far from adequate for such purposes, so many of the difficulties could be attributed to this. Partly because of this, and the fact that there are glaciers with very little liquid water present, radar methods are believed to be worthy of further research for the exploration of glaciers.