The formation of large-scale current sheets within magnetic clouds

Magnetic clouds are a class of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CME) predominantly characterised by a smooth rotation in the magnetic field direction, indicative of a magnetic flux rope structure. Many magnetic clouds, however, also contain sharp discontinuities within the smoothly varying magnetic field, suggestive of narrow current sheets. In this study we present observations and modelling of magnetic clouds with strong current sheet signatures close to the centre of the apparent flux rope structure. Using an analytical magnetic flux rope model, we demonstrate how such current sheets can form as a result of a cloud’s kinematic propagation from the Sun to the Earth, without any external forces or influences. This model is shown to match observations of four particular magnetic clouds remarkably well. The model predicts that current sheet intensity increases for increasing CME angular extent and decreasing CME radial expansion speed. Assuming such current sheets facilitate magnetic reconnection, the process of current sheet formation could ultimately lead a single flux rope becoming fragmented into multiple flux ropes. This change in topology has consequences for magnetic clouds as barriers to energetic particle propagation.

Global scale water stages from SAR imagery (GlosSARi) to support global flood forecasting

Despite the success of studies attempting to integrate remotely sensed data and flood modelling and the need to provide near-real time data routinely on a global scale as well as setting up online data archives, there is to date a lack of spatially and temporally distributed hydraulic parameters to support ongoing efforts in modelling. Therefore, the objective of this project is to provide a global evaluation and benchmark data set of floodplain water stages with uncertainties and assimilation in a large scale flood model using space-borne radar imagery. An algorithm is developed for automated retrieval of water stages with uncertainties from a sequence of radar imagery and data are assimilated in a flood model using the Tewkesbury 2007 flood event as a feasibility study. The retrieval method that we employ is based on possibility theory which is an extension of fuzzy sets and that encompasses probability theory. In our case we first attempt to identify main sources of uncertainty in the retrieval of water stages from radar imagery for which we define physically meaningful ranges of parameter values. Possibilities of values are then computed for each parameter using a triangular ‘membership’ function. This procedure allows the computation of possible values of water stages at maximum flood extents along a river at many different locations. At a later stage in the project these data are then used in assimilation, calibration or validation of a flood model. The application is subsequently extended to a global scale using wide swath radar imagery and a simple global flood forecasting model thereby providing improved river discharge estimates to update the latter.

Top-down solar modulation of climate: evidence for centennial-scale change

During the descent into the recent ‘exceptionally’ low solar minimum, observations have revealed a larger change in solar UV emissions than seen at the same phase of previous solar cycles. This is particularly true at wavelengths responsible for stratospheric ozone production and heating. This implies that ‘top-down’ solar modulation could be a larger factor in long-term tropospheric change than previously believed, many climate models allowing only for the ‘bottom-up’ effect of the less-variable visible and infrared solar emissions. We present evidence for long-term drift in solar UV irradiance, which is not found in its commonly used proxies. In addition, we find that both stratospheric and tropospheric winds and temperatures show stronger regional variations with those solar indices that do show long-term trends. A top-down climate effect that shows long-term drift (and may also be out of phase with the bottom-up solar forcing) would change the spatial response patterns and would mean that climate-chemistry models that have sufficient resolution in the stratosphere would become very important for making accurate regional/seasonal climate predictions. Our results also provide a potential explanation of persistent palaeoclimate results showing solar influence on regional or local climate indicators.

A multispacecraft analysis of a small-scale transient entrained by solar wind streams

The images taken by the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs), part of the SECCHI imaging package onboard the pair of STEREO spacecraft, provide information on the radial and latitudinal evolution of the plasma compressed inside corotating interaction regions (CIRs). A plasma density wave imaged by the HI instrument onboard STEREO-B was found to propagate towards STEREO-A, enabling a comparison between simultaneous remotesensing and in situ observations of its structure to be performed. In situ measurements made by STEREO-A show that the plasma density wave is associated with the passage of a CIR. The magnetic field compressed after the CIR stream interface (SI) is found to have a planar distribution. Minimum variance analysis of the magnetic field vectors shows that the SI is inclined at 54° to the orbital plane of the STEREO-A spacecraft. This inclination of the CIR SI is comparable to the inclination of the associated plasma density wave observed by HI. A small-scale magnetic cloud with a flux rope topology and radial extent of 0.08 AU is also embedded prior to the SI. The pitch-angle distribution of suprathermal electrons measured by the STEREO-A SWEA instrument shows that an open magnetic field topology in the cloud replaced the heliospheric current sheet locally. These observations confirm that HI observes CIRs in difference images when a small-scale transient is caught up in the compression region.

A link between low-frequency mesoscale eddy variability around Madagascar and the large-scale Indian Ocean variability

A connection is shown to exist between the mesoscale eddy activity around Madagascar and the large-scale interannual variability in the Indian Ocean. We use the combined TOPEX/Poseidon-ERS sea surface height (SSH) data for the period 1993–2003. The SSH-fields in the Mozambique Channel and east of Madagascar exhibit a significant interannual oscillation. This is related to the arrival of large-scale anomalies that propagate westward along 10°–15°S in response to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. Positive (negative) SSH anomalies associated to a positive (negative) IOD phase induce a shift in the intensity and position of the tropical and subtropical gyres. A weakening (strengthening) results in the intensity of the South Equatorial Current and its branches along east Madagascar. In addition, the flow through the narrows of the Mozambique Channel around 17°S increases (decreases) during periods of a stronger and northward (southward) extension of the subtropical (tropical) gyre. Interaction between the currents in the narrows and southward propagating eddies from the northern Channel leads to interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy of the central Channel in phase with the one in the SSH-field.

Correlations between microphysical properties of large-scale semi-transparent cirrus and the state of the atmosphere

By making use of TOVS Path-B satellite retrievals and ECMWF reanalyses, correlations between bulk microphysical properties of large-scale semi-transparent cirrus (visible optical thickness between 0.7 and 3.8) and thermodynamic and dynamic properties of the surrounding atmosphere have been studied on a global scale. These clouds constitute about half of all high clouds. The global averages (from 60°N to 60°S) of mean ice crystal diameter, De, and ice water path (IWP) of these clouds are 55 μm and 30 g m−2, respectively. IWP of these cirrus is slightly increasing with cloud-top temperature, whereas De of cold cirrus does not depend on this parameter. Correlations between De and IWp of large-scale cirrus seem to be different in the midlatitudes and in the tropics. However, we observe in general stronger correlations between De and IWP and atmospheric humidity and winds deduced from the ECMWF reanalyses: De and IWP increase both with increasing atmospheric water vapour. There is also a good distinction between different dynamical situations: In humid situations, IWP is on average about 10 gm−2 larger in regions with strong large-scale vertical updraft only that in regions with strong large-scale horizontal winds only, whereas the mean De of cold large-scale cirrus decreases by about 10 μm if both strong large-scale updraft and horizontal winds are present.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scale

The structure and dynamics of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies generated by convective storms is investigated both theoretically and in a numerical model case study. Linear theory suggests that if the storm-induced heating is on a sufficiently small scale (relative to the Rossby radius of deformation), and the environment contains moderate vertical wind shear (of order 1 m s(-1) km(-1)), then the dominant mode of a diabatically generated PV anomaly is a horizontally oriented dipole. The horizontal dipoles are typically of O(10 PVU), compared with the O(1 PVU) vertical dipoles that have been studied extensively throughout the literature. Furthermore, the horizontal PV dipoles are realized almost entirely as relative vorticity anomalies (on a time-scale of the order of tens of minutes after the heating has been turned on). The analysis of horizontal PV dipoles offers a new perspective on the vorticity dynamics of individual convective cells, implying that moist processes play a role in the maintenance of vertical vorticity in the convective storm environment.

Controls on boundary layer ventilation: Boundary layer processes and large-scale dynamics

Midlatitude cyclones are important contributors to boundary layer ventilation. However, it is uncertain how efficient such systems are at transporting pollutants out of the boundary layer, and variations between cyclones are unexplained. In this study 15 idealized baroclinic life cycles, with a passive tracer included, are simulated to identify the relative importance of two transport processes: horizontal divergence and convergence within the boundary layer and large-scale advection by the warm conveyor belt. Results show that the amount of ventilation is insensitive to surface drag over a realistic range of values. This indicates that although boundary layer processes are necessary for ventilation they do not control the magnitude of ventilation. A diagnostic for the mass flux out of the boundary layer has been developed to identify the synoptic-scale variables controlling the strength of ascent in the warm conveyor belt. A very high level of correlation (R-2 values exceeding 0.98) is found between the diagnostic and the actual mass flux computed from the simulations. This demonstrates that the large-scale dynamics control the amount of ventilation, and the efficiency of midlatitude cyclones to ventilate the boundary layer can be estimated using the new mass flux diagnostic. We conclude that meteorological analyses, such as ERA-40, are sufficient to quantify boundary layer ventilation by the large-scale dynamics.

Orography in a contour dynamics model of large-scale atmospheric flow

The influence of orography on the structure of stationary planetary Rossby waves is studied in the context of a contour dynamics model of the large-scale atmospheric flow. Orography of infinitesimal and finite amplitude is studied using analytical and numerical techniques. Three different types of orography are considered: idealized orography in the form of a global wave, idealized orography in the form of a local table mountain, and the earth's orography. The study confirms the importance of resonances, both in the infinitesimal orography and in the finite orography cases. With finite orography the stationary waves organize themselves into a one-dimensional set of solutions, which due to the resonances, is piecewise connected. It is pointed out that these stationary waves could be relevant for atmospheric regimes.

Decadal-scale rainfall variability in Ethiopia recorded in an annually laminated, Holocene-age, stalagmite

An annually laminated, uranium-series dated, Holocene stalagmite from southeast Ethiopia has been analysed for growth rate and δ13C and δ18O variations at annual to biennial resolution, in order to provide the first long duration proxy record of decadal-scale rainfall variability in this climatically sensitive region. Our study site (10°N) is climatically influenced by both summer (June—August) and spring (March—May) rainfall caused by the annual movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and modulated by large-scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and in ocean temperatures. Here we show that stalagmite growth, episodic throughout the last 7800 years, demonstrates decadal-scale (8—25 yr) variability in both growth rate and δ 18O. A hydrological model was employed and indicates that this decadal variability is due to variations in the relative amounts of rainfall in the two rain seasons. Our record, unique in its combination of length (a total of ~1000 years), annual chronology and high resolution δ18O, shows for the first time that such decadal-scale variability in rainfall in this region has occurred through the Holocene, which implies persistent decadal-scale variability for the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic driving factors.

Detecting local adaptation in widespread grassland species - the importance of scale and local plant community

1 Adaptation of plant populations to local environments has been shown in many species but local adaptation is not always apparent and spatial scales of differentiation are not well known. In a reciprocal transplant experiment we tested whether: (i) three widespread grassland species are locally adapted at a European scale; (ii) detection of local adaptation depends on competition with the local plant community; and (iii) local differentiation between neighbouring populations from contrasting habitats can be stronger than differentiation at a European scale. 2 Seeds of Holcus lanatus, Lotus corniculatus and Plantago lanceolata from a Swiss, Czech and UK population were sown in a reciprocal transplant experiment at fields that exhibit environmental conditions similar to the source sites. Seedling emergence, survival, growth and reproduction were recorded for two consecutive years. 3 The effect of competition was tested by comparing individuals in weeded monocultures with plants sown together with species from the local grassland community. To compare large-scale vs. small-scale differentiation, a neighbouring population from a contrasting habitat (wet-dry contrast) was compared with the 'home' and 'foreign' populations. 4 In P. lanceolata and H. lanatus, a significant home-site advantage was detected in fitness-related traits, thus indicating local adaptation. In L. corniculatus, an overall superiority of one provenance was found. 5 The detection of local adaptation depended on competition with the local plant community. In the absence of competition the home-site advantage was underestimated in P. lanceolata and overestimated in H. lanatus. 6 A significant population differentiation between contrasting local habitats was found. In some traits, this small-scale was greater than large-scale differentiation between countries. 7 Our results indicate that local adaptation in real plant communities cannot necessarily be predicted from plants grown in weeded monocultures and that tests on the relationship between fitness and geographical distance have to account for habitat-dependent small-scale differentiation. Considering the strong small-scale differentiation, a local provenance from a different habitat may not be the best choice in ecological restoration if distant populations from a more similar habitat are available.