The ERA-40 re-analysis

ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized. A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the second-generation ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2005. The contributions of N. A. Rayner and R. W. Saunders are Crown copyright.

Intake, growth and meat quality of steers given diets based on varying proportions of maize silage and grass silage

Simmental × Holstein-Friesian steers were offered four forage diets. These comprised grass silage (G); proportionately 0·67 grass silage, proportionately 0·33 maize silage (GGM); 0·33 grass silage, 0·67 maize silage ( MMG); maize silage ( M) from 424 (s.d. = 11·5) kg to slaughter at a minimum weight of 560 kg. Forages were mixed and offered ad libitum. Steers were offered 2 kg of a concentrate daily, the concentrate being formulated such that all steers had similar crude protein intakes across dietary treatments. A sample of steers was slaughtered at the beginning of the experimental period to allow the calculation of the rate of gain of the carcass and its components. Carcass dissection of a sample of steers allowed the development of a prediction equation of carcass composition based on thoracic limb dissection of all carcasses. Forage dry matter intake and live-weight gain increased linearly as maize silage replaced grass silage in the forage mixture, resulting in improvements in food conversion ratio (all P = 0·001). Killing-out proportion increased with maize silage inclusion ( P < 0·001) but fat and conformation scores did not differ significantly between diets. However, increasing maize inclusion in the diet resulted in a greater weight ( P = 0·05) and proportion ( P = 0·008) of fat in the carcass, and significant increases in internal fat deposition. The inclusion of maize led to a progressive increase in the daily gains of carcass ( P < 0·001), and significant increases in the daily gains of both fat ( P < 0·001) and lean tissue ( P < 0·001). Fat colour was more yellow in cattle given diets G and GGM than diets MMG and M ( P < 0·001) and colour intensity was lower on diet M than the other three diets ( P < 0·001). There were no significant differences in any aspects of eating quality between diets. Therefore, maize silage has the potential to reduce the time taken for finishing beef animals to achieve slaughter weight with no apparent detrimental effects on subsequent meat quality.

A randomised controlled trial of cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis in a routine clinical service

Objective: To evaluate CBTp delivered by non-expert therapists, using CBT relevant measures. Methods: Participants (N=74) were randomised into immediate therapy or waiting list control groups. The therapy group was offered six months of therapy and followed up three months later. The waiting list group received therapy after waiting nine months (becoming the delayed therapy group). Results: Depression improved in the combined therapy group at both the end of therapy and follow-up. Other significant effects were found in only one of the two therapy groups (positive symptoms; cognitive flexibility; uncontrollability of thoughts) or one of the two timepoints (end of therapy: PANSS general symptoms, anxiety, suicidal ideation, social functioning, resistance to voices; follow-up: power beliefs about voices, negative symptoms). There was no difference in costs between the groups. Conclusions: The only robust improvement was in depression. Nevertheless, there were further encouraging but modest improvements in both emotional and cognitive variables, in addition to psychotic symptoms.

Intake, live-weight gain and carcass characteristics of beef cattle given diets based on forage maize silage harvested at different stages of maturity

Advancing maturity of forage maize is associated with increases in the proportion of dry matter (DM) and starch, and decreases in the proportions of structural carbohydrates in the ensiled crop. This experiment investigated the effects of three maize silages of 291 (low), 339 (medium) and 393 (high) g DM per kg fresh weight on the performance of 48 Simmental. Holstein-Friesian cattle. Equal numbers of steers (mean start weight = 503 (s.d. 31.3) kg) and heifers (mean start weight = 378 (s.d. 11.2) kg) were offered individually isonitrogenous diets composed of the three silages plus a protein supplement with minerals once daily until slaughter at the target live weight of 575 and 475 kg for steers and heifers, respectively. Intake was reduced on the low diet (P < 0.01) compared with the other two treatments. Dietary starch intake increased by a total of 1 kg/day between low and medium diets but by only 0.2 kg/day between medium and high diets. Unlike starch intake, total neutral-detergent fibre intake showed no significant difference (P > 0.05) between diets. There were no differences in live-weight gain between treatments but differences (P < 0.05) in food conversion efficiency indicated relative gains of 115, 100 and 102 g gain per kg DM intake for diets low, medium and high, respectively. There were no differences between diets in carcass weights, fat score and overall conformation.

Effect of breed, gender, housing system and dietary crude protein content on performance of finishing beef cattle fed maize-silage-based diets

Maize silage-based diets with three dietary crude protein (CP) supplements were offered to 96 finishing cattle of contrasting breed (Holstein Friesian (HF) v. Simmental x HF (SHF)) and gender (bull v. steer) housed in two types of feeding system (group fed v. individually fed). The three protein supplements differed either in CP or protein degradability (degradable (LUDP) v. rumen undegradable (HUDP)) and provided CP concentrations of 142 (Con), 175 (LUDP) and 179 (HUDP) g/kg dry matter (DM) respectively, with ratios of degradable to undegradable of 3.0, 1.4 and 0.9:1 for diets Con, LOP and HUDP respectively. DM intakes were marginally higher (P = 0. 102) for LOP when compared with Con and HOP Rates of daily live-weight gain (DLWG) were higher (P = 0.005) in LUDP and HOP when compared with Con. HF had higher DM intakes than SHF although this did not result in any improvement in HF DLWG. Bulls had significantly better DM intakes, DLWG and feed conversion efficiency than steers. Conformation scores were better in SHF than HF (P < 0.001) and fat scores lower in bulls than steers (p < 0.001). There was a number of first order interactions established between dietary treatment, breed, gender and housing system with respect to rates of gain and carcass fat scores.

The relationship between multi-species catch and effort: among fishery comparisons

The control of fishing mortality via fishing effort remains fundamental to most fisheries management strategies even at the local community or co-management level. Decisions to support such strategies require knowledge of the underlying response of the catch to changes in effort. Even under adaptive management strategies, imprecise knowledge of the response is likely to help accelerate the adaptive learning process. Data and institutional capacity requirements to employ multi-species biomass dynamics and age-structured models invariably render their use impractical particularly in less developed regions of the world. Surplus production models fitted to catch and effort data aggregated across all species offer viable alternatives. The current paper seeks models of this type that best describe the multi-species catch–effort responses in floodplain-rivers, lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries based upon among fishery comparisons, building on earlier work. Three alternative surplus production models were fitted to estimates of catch per unit area (CPUA) and fisher density for 258 fisheries in Africa, Asia and South America. In all cases examined, the best or equal best fitting model was the Fox type, explaining up to 90% of the variation in CPUA. For lake and reservoir fisheries in Africa and Asia, the Schaefer and an asymptotic model fitted equally well. The Fox model estimates of fisher density (fishers km−2) at maximum yield (iMY) for floodplain-rivers, African lakes and reservoirs and reef-based fisheries are 13.7 (95% CI [11.8, 16.4]); 27.8 (95% CI [17.5, 66.7]) and 643 (95% CI [459,1075]), respectively and compare well with earlier estimates. Corresponding estimates of maximum yield are also given. The significantly higher value of iMY for reef-based fisheries compared to estimates for rivers and lakes reflects the use of a different measure of fisher density based upon human population size estimates. The models predict that maximum yield is achieved at a higher fishing intensity in Asian lakes compared to those in Africa. This may reflect the common practice in Asia of stocking lakes to augment natural recruitment. Because of the equilibrium assumptions underlying the models, all the estimates of maximum yield and corresponding levels of effort should be treated with caution.

Statistical methods for ordered categorical data based on a constrained odds model

The proportional odds model provides a powerful tool for analysing ordered categorical data and setting sample size, although for many clinical trials its validity is questionable. The purpose of this paper is to present a new class of constrained odds models which includes the proportional odds model. The efficient score and Fisher's information are derived from the profile likelihood for the constrained odds model. These results are new even for the special case of proportional odds where the resulting statistics define the Mann-Whitney test. A strategy is described involving selecting one of these models in advance, requiring assumptions as strong as those underlying proportional odds, but allowing a choice of such models. The accuracy of the new procedure and its power are evaluated.

Comparative evaluation of a new effective population size estimator based on approximate Bayesian computation

We describe and evaluate a new estimator of the effective population size (N-e), a critical parameter in evolutionary and conservation biology. This new "SummStat" N-e. estimator is based upon the use of summary statistics in an approximate Bayesian computation framework to infer N-e. Simulations of a Wright-Fisher population with known N-e show that the SummStat estimator is useful across a realistic range of individuals and loci sampled, generations between samples, and N-e values. We also address the paucity of information about the relative performance of N-e estimators by comparing the SUMMStat estimator to two recently developed likelihood-based estimators and a traditional moment-based estimator. The SummStat estimator is the least biased of the four estimators compared. In 32 of 36 parameter combinations investigated rising initial allele frequencies drawn from a Dirichlet distribution, it has the lowest bias. The relative mean square error (RMSE) of the SummStat estimator was generally intermediate to the others. All of the estimators had RMSE > 1 when small samples (n = 20, five loci) were collected a generation apart. In contrast, when samples were separated by three or more generations and Ne less than or equal to 50, the SummStat and likelihood-based estimators all had greatly reduced RMSE. Under the conditions simulated, SummStat confidence intervals were more conservative than the likelihood-based estimators and more likely to include true N-e. The greatest strength of the SummStat estimator is its flexible structure. This flexibility allows it to incorporate any, potentially informative summary statistic from Population genetic data.

Induction of cytochrome P-450 activity in individual Chironomus riparius Meigen larvae exposed to xenobiotics

Cytochrome P450 activity in individual Chironomus riparius larvae was measured using a microtiter plate adaptation of the ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) assay. The sensitivity of this biomarker was tested by exposing larvae to phenobarbital (0.5 and 1.0 mM) and permethrin (1 and 10 mug/g). Both chemicals induced EROD activity in C. riparius larvae by up to 1.58-fold with PB and 2.47-fold with permethrin. EROD induction was more pronounced after 48 h. The initially high EROD activity in the controls suggested that P450s are induced by stress. Feeding levels prior to exposure also had a significant effect on EROD activity. EROD activity compared to the control was highest when larvae were fed double the normal ration. These results indicate that EROD activity in individual C. riparius may be a useful biomarker to add to a suite of biomarkers for the detection of freshwater pollution. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

Oxidation of oleic acid at the air-water interface and its potential effects on cloud critical supersaturations

The oxidation of organic films on cloud condensation nuclei has the potential to affect climate and precipitation events. In this work we present a study of the oxidation of a monolayer of deuterated oleic acid (cis-9-octadecenoic acid) at the air-water interface by ozone to determine if oxidation removes the organic film or replaces it with a product film. A range of different aqueous sub-phases were studied. The surface excess of deuterated material was followed by neutron reflection whilst the surface pressure was followed using a Wilhelmy plate. The neutron reflection data reveal that approximately half the organic material remains at the air-water interface following the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone, thus cleavage of the double bond by ozone creates one surface active species and one species that partitions to the bulk (or gas) phase. The most probable products, produced with a yield of similar to(87 +/- 14)%, are nonanoic acid, which remains at the interface, and azelaic acid (nonanedioic acid), which dissolves into the bulk solution. We also report a surface bimolecular rate constant for the reaction between ozone and oleic acid of (7.3 +/- 0.9) x 10(-11) cm(2) molecule s(-1). The rate constant and product yield are not affected by the solution sub-phase. An uptake coefficient of ozone on the oleic acid monolayer of similar to 4 x 10(-6) is estimated from our results. A simple Kohler analysis demonstrates that the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone on an atmospheric aerosol will lower the critical supersaturation needed for cloud droplet formation. We calculate an atmospheric chemical lifetime of oleic acid of 1.3 hours, significantly longer than laboratory studies on pure oleic acid particles suggest, but more consistent with field studies reporting oleic acid present in aged atmospheric aerosol.