Where do they come from? Prevalence and characteristics of nascent entrepreneurs

This paper reports on a unique study of a large, random sample of business start-ups that were identified prior to the actual, commercial launch of the ventures. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, to present frequencies on the involvement of the Swedish population in the small business sector (particularly in start-ups of firms) and to compare these with estimates from Norway and the USA, which are based on studies using a similar research design. The authors also discuss the possible reasons for the differences that emerge between countries. Second, the characteristics of nascent entrepreneurs (i.e. individuals trying to start an independent business) are analysed and compared for sub-groups within the sample and with characteristics of business founders as they appear in theoretical accounts or retrospective empirical studies of surviving all firms. In order to get a representative sample from the working age population, respondents (n = 30,427) were randomly selected and interviewed by telephone. It was found that 2.0% of the Swedish population at the time of the interview were trying to start an independent business. Sweden had a significantly lower prevalence rate of nascent entrepreneurs compared to Norway and the USA. Nascent entrepreneurs were then compared to a control group of people not trying to start a business. The results confirmed findings from previous studies of business founders pointing to the importance of role models and the impression of self-employment obtained through these, employment status, age, education and experience. Marital status, the number of children in the household, and length of employment experience were unrelated to the probability of becoming a nascent entrepreneur. The gender of the respondent was the strongest distinguishing factor. Importantly, the results suggest that while one has a reasonably good understanding of the characteristics associated with men going into business for themselves, the type of variables investigated here have very limited ability to predict nascent entrepreneur status for women.

Collaborative academic/practitioner research in project management : theory and models

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide of a review of the theory and models underlying project management (PM) research degrees that encourage reflective learning. Design/methodology/approach – Review of the literature and reflection on the practice of being actively involved in conducting and supervising academic research and disseminating academic output. The paper argues the case for the potential usefulness of reflective academic research to PM practitioners. It also highlights theoretical drivers of and barriers to reflective academic research by PM practitioners. Findings – A reflective learning approach to research can drive practical results though it requires a great deal of commitment and support by both academic and industry partners. Practical implications – This paper suggests how PM practitioners can engage in academic research that has practical outcomes and how to be more effective at disseminating these research outcomes. Originality/value – Advanced academic degrees, in particular those completed by PM practitioners, can validate a valuable source of innovative ideas and approaches that should be more quickly absorbed into the PM profession’s sources of knowledge. The value of this paper is to critically review and facilitate a reduced adaptation time for implementation of useful reflective academic research to industry.

Incentivising private health insurance through the income tax regime : Capitalising on behavioural models

The Australian income tax regime is generally regarded as a mechanism by which the Federal Government raises revenue, with much of the revenue raised used to support public spending programs. A prime example of this type of spending program is health care. However, a government may also decide that the private sector should provide a greater share of the nation's health care. To achieve such a policy it can bring about change through positive regulation, or it can use the taxation regime, via tax expenditures, not to raise revenue but to steer or influence individuals in its desired direction. When used for this purpose, tax expenditures steer taxpayers towards or away from certain behaviour by either imposing costs on, or providing benefits to them. Within the context of the health sector, the Australian Federal Government deploys social steering via the tax system, with the Medicare Levy Surcharge and the 30 percent Private Health Insurance Rebate intended to steer taxpayer behaviour towards the Government’s policy goal of increasing the amount of health provision through the private sector. These steering mechanisms are complemented by the ‘Lifetime Health Cover Initiative’. This article, through the lens of behavioural economics, considers the ways in which these assorted mechanisms might have been expected to operate and whether they encourage individuals to purchase private health insurance.

A review of models and model usage scenarios for an airport complex system

Airports represent the epitome of complex systems with multiple stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions and complex interactions between many actors. The large number of existing models that capture different aspects of the airport are a testament to this. However, these existing models do not consider in a systematic sense modelling requirements nor how stakeholders such as airport operators or airlines would make use of these models. This can detrimentally impact on the verification and validation of models and makes the development of extensible and reusable modelling tools difficult. This paper develops from the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) framework a methodology to help structure the review and development of modelling capabilities and usage scenarios. The method is applied to the review of existing airport terminal passenger models. It is found that existing models can be broadly categorised according to four usage scenarios: capacity planning, operational planning and design, security policy and planning, and airport performance review. The models, the performance metrics that they evaluate and their usage scenarios are discussed. It is found that capacity and operational planning models predominantly focus on performance metrics such as waiting time, service time and congestion whereas performance review models attempt to link those to passenger satisfaction outcomes. Security policy models on the other hand focus on probabilistic risk assessment. However, there is an emerging focus on the need to be able to capture trade-offs between multiple criteria such as security and processing time. Based on the CONOPS framework and literature findings, guidance is provided for the development of future airport terminal models.

Numerical models to simulate the thermal performance of LSF wall panels

Fire safety of buildings has been recognised as very important by the building industry and the community at large. Gypsum plasterboards are widely used to protect light gauge steel frame (LSF) walls all over the world. Gypsum contains free and chemically bound water in its crystal structure. Plasterboard also contains gypsum (CaSO4.2H2O) and calcium carbonate (CaCO3). The dehydration of gypsum and the decomposition of calcium carbonate absorb heat, and thus are able to protect LSF walls from fires. Kolarkar and Mahendran (2008) developed an innovative composite wall panel system, where the insulation was sandwiched between two plasterboards to improve the thermal and structural performance of LSF wall panels under fire conditions. In order to understand the performance of gypsum plasterboards and LSF wall panels under standard fire conditions, many experiments were conducted in the Fire Research Laboratory of Queensland University of Technology (Kolarkar, 2010). Fire tests were conducted on single, double and triple layers of Type X gypsum plasterboards and load bearing LSF wall panels under standard fire conditions. However, suitable numerical models have not been developed to investigate the thermal performance of LSF walls using the innovative composite panels under standard fire conditions. Continued reliance on expensive and time consuming fire tests is not acceptable. Therefore this research developed suitable numerical models to investigate the thermal performance of both plasterboard assemblies and load bearing LSF wall panels. SAFIR, a finite element program, was used to investigate the thermal performance of gypsum plasterboard assemblies and LSF wall panels under standard fire conditions. Appropriate values of important thermal properties were proposed for plasterboards and insulations based on laboratory tests, literature review and comparisons of finite element analysis results of small scale plasterboard assemblies from this research and corresponding experimental results from Kolarkar (2010). The important thermal properties (thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity and density) of gypsum plasterboard and insulation materials were proposed as functions of temperature and used in the numerical models of load bearing LSF wall panels. Using these thermal properties, the developed finite element models were able to accurately predict the time temperature profiles of plasterboard assemblies while they predicted them reasonably well for load bearing LSF wall systems despite the many complexities that are present in these LSF wall systems under fires. This thesis presents the details of the finite element models of plasterboard assemblies and load bearing LSF wall panels including those with the composite panels developed by Kolarkar and Mahendran (2008). It examines and compares the thermal performance of composite panels developed based on different insulating materials of varying densities and thicknesses based on 11 small scale tests, and makes suitable recommendations for improved fire performance of stud wall panels protected by these composite panels. It also presents the thermal performance data of LSF wall systems and demonstrates the superior performance of LSF wall systems using the composite panels. Using the developed finite element of models of LSF walls, this thesis has proposed new LSF wall systems with increased fire rating. The developed finite element models are particularly useful in comparing the thermal performance of different wall panel systems without time consuming and expensive fire tests.

Driver response time of queuing vehicles at urban signalized intersections

Driver response (reaction) time (tr) of the second queuing vehicle is generally longer than other vehicles at signalized intersections. Though this phenomenon was revealed in 1972, the above factor is still ignored in conventional departure models. This paper highlights the need for quantitative measurements and analysis of queuing vehicle performance in spontaneous discharge pattern because it can improve microsimulation. Video recording from major cities in Australia plus twenty two sets of vehicle trajectories extracted from the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) Peachtree Street Dataset have been analyzed to better understand queuing vehicle performance in the discharge process. Findings from this research will alleviate driver response time and also can be used for the calibration of the microscopic traffic simulation model.

The economics of happiness : a lifetime perspective

The three studies in this thesis focus on happiness and age and seek to contribute to our understanding of happiness change over the lifetime. The first study contributes by offering an explanation for what was evolving to a ‘stylised fact’ in the economics literature, the U-shape of happiness in age. No U-shape is evident if one makes a visual inspection of the age happiness relationship in the German socio-economic panel data, and, it seems counter-intuitive that we just have to wait until we get old to be happy. Eliminating the very young, the very old, and the first timers from the analysis did not explain away regression results supporting the U-shape of happiness in age, but fixed effect analysis did. Analysis revealed found that reverse causality arising from time-invariant individual traits explained the U-shape of happiness in age in the German population, and the results were robust across six econometric methods. Robustness was added to the German fixed effect finding by replicating it with the Australian and the British socio-economic panel data sets. During analysis of the German data an unexpected finding emerged, an exceedingly large negative linear effect of age on happiness in fixed-effect regressions. There is a large self-reported happiness decline by those who remain in the German panel. A similar decline over time was not evident in the Australian or the British data. After testing away age, time and cohort effects, a time-in-panel effect was found. Germans who remain in the panel for longer progressively report lower levels of happiness. Because time-in-panel effects have not been included in happiness regression specifications, our estimates may be biased; perhaps some economics of the happiness studies, that used German panel data, need revisiting. The second study builds upon the fixed-effect finding of the first study and extends our view of lifetime happiness to a cohort little visited by economists, children. Initial analysis extends our view of lifetime happiness beyond adulthood and revealed a happiness decline in adolescent (15 to 23 year-old) Australians that is twice the size of the happiness decline we see in older Australians (75 to 86 yearolds), who we expect to be unhappy due to declining income, failing health and the onset of death. To resolve a difference of opinion in the literature as to whether childhood happiness decreases, increases, or remains flat in age; survey instruments and an Internet-based survey were developed and used to collect data from four hundred 9 to 14 year-old Australian children. Applying the data to a Model of Childhood Happiness revealed that the natural environment life-satisfaction domain factor did not have a significant effect on childhood happiness. However, the children’s school environment and interactions with friends life-satisfaction domain factors explained over half a steep decline in childhood happiness that is three times larger than what we see in older Australians. Adding personality to the model revealed what we expect to see with adults, extraverted children are happier, but unexpectedly, so are conscientious children. With the steep decline in the happiness of young Australians revealed and explanations offered, the third study builds on the time-invariant individual trait finding from the first study by applying the Australian panel data to an Aggregate Model of Average Happiness over the lifetime. The model’s independent variable is the stress that arises from the interaction between personality and the life event shocks that affect individuals and peers throughout their lives. Interestingly, a graphic depiction of the stress in age relationship reveals an inverse U-shape; an inverse U-shape that looks like the opposite of the U-shape of happiness in age we saw in the first study. The stress arising from life event shocks is found to explain much of the change in average happiness over a lifetime. With the policy recommendations of economists potentially invoking unexpected changes in our lives, the ensuing stress and resulting (un)happiness warrant consideration before economists make policy recommendations.

What explains the association between socioeconomic status and depression among Vietnamese adults?

Background Depression is a major public health problem worldwide and is currently ranked second to heart disease for years lost due to disability. For many decades, international research has found that depressive symptoms occur more frequently among low socioeconomic (SES) individuals than their more-advantaged peers. However, the reasons as to why those of low socioeconomic groups suffer more depressive symptoms are not well understood. Studies investigating the prevalence of depression and its association with SES emanate largely from developed countries, with little research among developing countries. In particular, there is a serious dearth of research on depression and no investigation of its association with SES in Vietnam. The aims of the research presented in this Thesis are to: estimate the prevalence of depressive symptoms among Vietnamese adults, examine the nature and extent of the association between SES and depression and to elucidate causal pathways linking SES to depressive symptoms Methods The research was conducted between September 2008 and November 2009 in Hue city in central Vietnam and used a combination of qualitative (in-depth interviews) and quantitative (survey) data collection methods. The qualitative study contributed to the development of the theoretical model and to the refinement of culturally-appropriate data collection instruments for the quantitative study. The main survey comprised a cross-sectional population–based survey with randomised cluster sampling. A sample of 1976 respondents aged between 25-55 years from ten randomly-selected residential zones (quarters) of Hue city completed the questionnaire (response rate 95.5%). Measures SES was classified using three indicators: education, occupation and income. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (CES-D) scale was used to measure depressive symptoms (range0-51, mean=11.0, SD=8.5). Three cut-off points for the CES-D scores were applied: ‘at risk for clinical depression’ (16 or above), ‘depressive symptoms’ (above 21) and ‘depression’ (above 25). Six psychosocial indicators: life time trauma, chronic stress, recent life events, social support, self esteem, and mastery were hypothesized to mediate the association between SES and depressive symptoms. Analyses The prevalence of depressive symptoms were analysed using bivariate analyses. The multivariable analytic phase comprised of ordinary least squares regression, in accordance with Baron and Kenny’s three-step framework for mediation modeling. All analyses were adjusted for a range of confounders, including age, marital status, smoking, drinking and chronic diseases and the mediation models were stratified by gender. Results Among these Vietnamese adults, 24.3% were at or above the cut-off for being ‘at risk for clinical depression’, 11.9% were classified as having depressive symptoms and 6.8% were categorised as having depression. SES was inversely related to depressive symptoms: the least educated those with low occupational status or with the lowest incomes reported more depressive symptoms. Socioeconomicallydisadvantaged individuals were more likely to report experiencing stress (life time trauma, chronic stress or recent life events), perceived less social support and reported fewer personal resources (self esteem and mastery) than their moreadvantaged counterparts. These psychosocial resources were all significantly associated with depressive symptoms independent of SES. Each psychosocial factor showed a significant mediating effect on the association between SES and depressive symptoms. This was found for all measures of SES, and for males and females. In particular, personal resources (mastery, self esteem) and chronic stress accounted for a substantial proportion of the variation in depressive symptoms between socioeconomic groups. Social support and recent life events contributed modestly to socioeconomic differences in depressive symptoms, whereas lifetime trauma contributed the least to these inequalities. Conclusion This is the first known study in Vietnam or any developing country to systematically examine the extent to which psychosocial factors mediate the relationship between SES and depression. The study contributes new evidence regarding the burden of depression in Vietnam. The findings have practical relevance for advocacy, for mental health promotion and health-care services, and point to the need for programs that focus on building a sense of personal mastery and self esteem. More broadly, the work presented in this Thesis contributes to the international scientific literature on the social determinants of depression.

Tests and Models of Non-compositional Concepts

The question of under what conditions conceptual representation is compositional remains debatable within cognitive science. This paper proposes a well developed mathematical apparatus for a probabilistic representation of concepts, drawing upon methods developed in quantum theory to propose a formal test that can determine whether a specific conceptual combination is compositional, or not. This test examines a joint probability distribution modeling the combination, asking whether or not it is factorizable. Empirical studies indicate that some combinations should be considered non-compositionally.

Standardisation of digital human models

Digital human models (DHM) have evolved as useful tools for ergonomic workplace design and product development, and found in various industries and education. DHM systems which dominate the market were developed for specific purposes and differ significantly, which is not only reflected in non-compatible results of DHM simulations, but also provoking misunderstanding of how DHM simulations relate to real world problems. While DHM developers are restricted by uncertainty about the user need and lack of model data related standards, users are confined to one specific product and cannot exchange results, or upgrade to another DHM system, as their previous results would be rendered worthless. Furthermore, origin and validity of anthropometric and biomechanical data is not transparent to the user. The lack of standardisation in DHM systems has become a major roadblock in further system development, affecting all stakeholders in the DHM industry. Evidently, a framework for standardising digital human models is necessary to overcome current obstructions.

Models of collective cell behaviour with crowding effects : comparing lattice-based and lattice-free approaches

Individual-based models describing the migration and proliferation of a population of cells frequently restrict the cells to a predefined lattice. An implicit assumption of this type of lattice based model is that a proliferative population will always eventually fill the lattice. Here we develop a new lattice-free individual-based model that incorporates cell-to-cell crowding effects. We also derive approximate mean-field descriptions for the lattice-free model in two special cases motivated by commonly used experimental setups. Lattice-free simulation results are compared to these mean-field descriptions and to a corresponding lattice-based model. Data from a proliferation experiment is used to estimate the parameters for the new model, including the cell proliferation rate, showing that the model fits the data well. An important aspect of the lattice-free model is that the confluent cell density is not predefined, as with lattice-based models, but an emergent model property. As a consequence of the more realistic, irregular configuration of cells in the lattice-free model, the population growth rate is much slower at high cell densities and the population cannot reach the same confluent density as an equivalent lattice-based model.

Robust performance analysis on YAWL process models with advanced constructs

The importance of actively managing and analyzing business processes is acknowledged more than ever in organizations nowadays. Business processes form an essential part of an organization and their ap-plication areas are manifold. Most organizations keep records of various activities that have been carried out for auditing purposes, but they are rarely used for analysis purposes. This paper describes the design and implementation of a process analysis tool that replays, analyzes and visualizes a variety of performance metrics using a process definition and its execution logs. Performing performance analysis on existing and planned process models offers a great way for organizations to detect bottlenecks within their processes and allow them to make more effective process improvement decisions. Our technique is applied to processes modeled in the YAWL language. Execution logs of process instances are compared against the corresponding YAWL process model and replayed in a robust manner, taking into account any noise in the logs. Finally, performance characteristics, obtained from replaying the log in the model, are projected onto the model.

Accuracy of rate estimation using relaxed-clock models with a critical focus on the early metazoan radiation

In recent years, a number of phylogenetic methods have been developed for estimating molecular rates and divergence dates under models that relax the molecular clock constraint by allowing rate change throughout the tree. These methods are being used with increasing frequency, but there have been few studies into their accuracy. We tested the accuracy of several relaxed-clock methods (penalized likelihood and Bayesian inference using various models of rate change) using nucleotide sequences simulated on a nine-taxon tree. When the sequences evolved with a constant rate, the methods were able to infer rates accurately, but estimates were more precise when a molecular clock was assumed. When the sequences evolved under a model of autocorrelated rate change, rates were accurately estimated using penalized likelihood and by Bayesian inference using lognormal and exponential models of rate change, while other models did not perform as well. When the sequences evolved under a model of uncorrelated rate change, only Bayesian inference using an exponential rate model performed well. Collectively, the results provide a strong recommendation for using the exponential model of rate change if a conservative approach to divergence time estimation is required. A case study is presented in which we use a simulation-based approach to examine the hypothesis of elevated rates in the Cambrian period, and it is found that these high rate estimates might be an artifact of the rate estimation method. If this bias is present, then the ages of metazoan divergences would be systematically underestimated. The results of this study have implications for studies of molecular rates and divergence dates.

'Nothing exists for one cause' : putting biology back into evolution

The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.

Mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds for efficient delivery of vascular endothelial growth factor

In this article, we, for the first time, investigated mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds for the delivery of vascular endothelial growth factor. We have found that mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds have significantly higher loading efficiency and more sustained release of vascular endothelial growth factor than non-mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds. In addition, vascular endothelial growth factor delivery from mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds has improved the viability of endothelial cells. The study has suggested that mesopore structures in mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds play an important role in improving the loading efficiency, decreasing the burst release, and maintaining the bioactivity of vascular endothelial growth factor, indicating that mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds are an excellent carrier of vascular endothelial growth factor for potential bone tissue engineering applications.