Long-term forest fire ecology and dynamics in southern Switzerland

1 Pollen and charcoal analysis at two lakes in southern Switzerland revealed that fire has had a prominent role in changing the woodland composition of this area for more than 7000 years. 2 The sediment of Lago di Origlio for the period between 5100 and 3100 bc cal. was sampled continuously with a time interval of about 10 years. Peaks of charcoal particles were significantly correlated with repeated declines in pollen of Abies, Hedera, Tilia, Ulmus, Fraxinus excelsior t., Fagus and Vitis and with increases in Alnus glutinosa t., shrubs (e.g. Corylus, Salix and Sambucus nigra t.) and several herbaceous species. The final disappearance of the lowland Abies alba stands at around 3150 bc cal. may be an example of a fire-caused local extinction of a fire-intolerant species. 3 Forest fires tended to diminish pollen diversity. The charcoal peaks were preceded by pollen types indicating human activity. Charcoal minima occurred during periods of cold humid climate, when fire susceptibility would be reduced. 4 An increase of forest fires at about 2100 bc cal. severely reduced the remaining fire-sensitive plants: the mixed-oak forest was replaced by a fire-tolerant alder–oak forest. The very strong increase of charcoal influx, and the marked presence of anthropogenic indicators, point to principally anthropogenic causes. 5 We suggest that without anthropogenic disturbances Abies alba would still form lowland forests together with various deciduous broadleaved tree taxa.

Directional statistics: introduction

In many of the natural and physical sciences, measurements are directions, either in two or three dimensions. The analysis of directional data relies on specific statistical models and procedures, which differ from the usual models and methodologies of Cartesian data. This chapter briefly introduces statistical models and inference for this type of data. The basic von Mises-Fisher distribution is introduced and nonparametric methods such as goodness-of-fit tests are presented. Further references are given for exploring related topics such as correlation and regression.

7000-year human legacy of elevation-dependent European fire regimes

Variability in fire regime at the continental scale has primarily been attributed to climate change, often overshadowing the widely potential impact of human activities. However, human ignition modifies the rhythm of fire episodes occurrence (fire frequency), whereas land use alters vegetation composition and fuel load, and thus the amount of biomass burned. It is unclear, however, whether and how humans have exercised a significant influence over fire regimes at continental and millennial scales. Based on sedimentary charcoal records, we use new alternative estimate of fire frequency and biomass burned for the last 16000 years (here after 16 ky) that we evaluate with outputs from climate, vegetation, land use and population models. We find that pronounced regional-scale land use changes in southern Europe at the beginning of the Neolithic (8–6 ky), during the Bronze Age (5–4 ky) and the medieval period (1 ky) caused a doubling of fire frequency compared to the Holocene average (the last 11.5 ky). Despite anthropogenic influences, southern European biomass burned decreased from 7 ky, which is in line both with changes in orbital parameters leading climate cooling and also reductions in biomass availability because of land use. Our study underscores the role of elevation-dependent parameters, and particularly biomass and land management, as major drivers of fire regime variability. Results attest a determinant anthropogenic driving-force on fire regime and a decrease in fire-carbon emissions since 7 ky in Southern Europe.

Paleofires and models illuminate future fire scenarios

Advances in Interdisciplinary Paleofire Research: Data and Model Comparisons for the Past Millennium; Harvard Forest, Petersham, Massachusetts, 27 September to 2 October 2015

Holocene vegetation and fire history of the mountains of Northern Sicily (Italy)

Knowledge about vegetation and fire history of the mountains of Northern Sicily is scanty. We analysed five sites to fill this gap and used terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish robust radiocarbon chronologies. Palynological records from Gorgo Tondo, Gorgo Lungo, Marcato Cixé, Urgo Pietra Giordano and Gorgo Pollicino show that under natural or near natural conditions, deciduous forests (Quercus pubescens, Q. cerris, Fraxinus ornus, Ulmus), that included a substantial portion of evergreen broadleaved species (Q. suber, Q. ilex, Hedera helix), prevailed in the upper meso-mediterranean belt. Mesophilous deciduous and evergreen broadleaved trees (Fagus sylvatica, Ilex aquifolium) dominated in the natural or quasi-natural forests of the oro-mediterranean belt. Forests were repeatedly opened for agricultural purposes. Fire activity was closely associated with farming, providing evidence that burning was a primary land use tool since Neolithic times. Land use and fire activity intensified during the Early Neolithic at 5000 bc, at the onset of the Bronze Age at 2500 bc and at the onset of the Iron Age at 800 bc. Our data and previous studies suggest that the large majority of open land communities in Sicily, from the coastal lowlands to the mountain areas below the thorny-cushion Astragalus belt (ca. 1,800 m a.s.l.), would rapidly develop into forests if land use ceased. Mesophilous Fagus-Ilex forests developed under warm mid Holocene conditions and were resilient to the combined impacts of humans and climate. The past ecology suggests a resilience of these summer-drought adapted communities to climate warming of about 2 °C. Hence, they may be particularly suited to provide heat and drought-adapted Fagus sylvatica ecotypes for maintaining drought-sensitive Central European beech forests under global warming conditions.

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE EFFECT OF TESTOSTERONE ON THE QUANTITATIVE MAINTENANCE OF SPERMATOGENESIS IN THE HYPOPHYSECTOMIZED ADULT RAT (PHARMACOKINETICS, MORPHOMETRY, STATISTICS)

Administration of gonadotropins or testosterone (T) will maintain qualitatively normal spermatogenesis and fertility in hypophysectomized (APX) rats. However, quantitative maintenance of the spermatogenic process in APX rats treated with T alone or in combination with follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) has not been demonstrated. Studies reported here were conducted to determine whether it would be possible to increase intratesticular testosterone (ITT) levels in APX rats to those found in normal animals by administration of appropriate amounts of testosterone propionate (TP) and if under these conditions spermatogenesis can be maintained quantitatively. Quantitative analysis of spermatogenesis was performed on stages VI and VII of the spermatogenic cycle utilizing criteria of Leblond and Clermont (1952) all cell types were enumerated. In a series of experiments designed to investigate the effects of T on spermatogenesis, TP was administered to 60 day old APX rats twice daily for 30 days in doses ranging from 0.6 to 15 mg/day or from 0.6 to 6.0 mg/day in combination with FSH. The results of this study demonstrate that the efficiency of transformation of type A to type B spermatogonia and the efficacy of the meiotic prophase are related to ITT levels, and that quantitatively normal completion of the reduction division requires normal ITT levels. The ratio of spermatids to spermatocytes in the vehicle-treated APX rats was 1:1.38; in the APX rats treated with 15 mg of TP it was 1:4.0 (the theoretically expected number). This study is probably the first to demonstrate: (1) the pharmacokinetics of TP, (2) the profile and quantity of T-immunoactivity in both serum and testicular tissue of APX and IC rats as well as APX rats treated with TP alone or in combination with FSH, (3) the direct correlation of serum T and ITT levels in treated APX rats (r = 0.9, p < 0.001) as well as in the IC rats (r = 0.9, p < 0.001), (4) the significant increase in the number of Type B spermatogonia, preleptotene and pachytene spermatocytes and round spermatids in TP-treated APX rats, (5) the correlation of the number of round spermatids formed in IC rats to ITT levels (r = 0.9, p < 0.001), and (6) the correlation of the quantitative maintenance of spermatogenesis with ITT levels (r = 0.7, p < 0.001) in the testes of TP-treated APX rats. These results provide direct experimental evidence for the key role of T in the spermatogenic process. ^

Connecticut Poison Control Center. 2002 and 2003 Annual Report and Poison Exposure Statistics

The Connecticut Poison Control Center (CPCC) at the University of Connecticut Health Center (UCHC) was established in 1957 under Connecticut General Statute 10a- 132. The CPCC’s main responsibility is to provide 24-hour emergency toxicology management consultations for victims of poisoning, and serve as a source for pharmacology and toxicology-related information. The center monitors the epidemiology of human poisoning and provides surveillance for environmental and occupational chemical exposures, drug abuse, and pharmaceutical interactions and adverse effects. The CPCC performs toxicological research, and provides formal toxicology instruction for allied health professionals, as well as professional and consumer poison prevention education. The CPCC is one of 63 nationwide centers certified by the American Association of Poison Control Centers (AAPCC), and the only poison center in the state of Connecticut. The AAPCC establishes standards of care for poisoning and administers the Toxic Exposure Surveillance System (TESS), a national database of poisoning statistics, to which the CPCC is a contributor.

Rumshisky`s Music Album. Mamenu. Including an Elegy to the Triangle Fire Victims. Violinsatz

A.Schorr

"Mameniu"! Including an Elegy to the Triangle Fire Victims

A.Schorr

Assessment of the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification by using techniques of mathematical statistics and simulation study

Objectives. This paper seeks to assess the effect on statistical power of regression model misspecification in a variety of situations. ^ Methods and results. The effect of misspecification in regression can be approximated by evaluating the correlation between the correct specification and the misspecification of the outcome variable (Harris 2010).In this paper, three misspecified models (linear, categorical and fractional polynomial) were considered. In the first section, the mathematical method of calculating the correlation between correct and misspecified models with simple mathematical forms was derived and demonstrated. In the second section, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007-2008) were used to examine such correlations. Our study shows that comparing to linear or categorical models, the fractional polynomial models, with the higher correlations, provided a better approximation of the true relationship, which was illustrated by LOESS regression. In the third section, we present the results of simulation studies that demonstrate overall misspecification in regression can produce marked decreases in power with small sample sizes. However, the categorical model had greatest power, ranging from 0.877 to 0.936 depending on sample size and outcome variable used. The power of fractional polynomial model was close to that of linear model, which ranged from 0.69 to 0.83, and appeared to be affected by the increased degrees of freedom of this model.^ Conclusion. Correlations between alternative model specifications can be used to provide a good approximation of the effect on statistical power of misspecification when the sample size is large. When model specifications have known simple mathematical forms, such correlations can be calculated mathematically. Actual public health data from NHANES 2007-2008 were used as examples to demonstrate the situations with unknown or complex correct model specification. Simulation of power for misspecified models confirmed the results based on correlation methods but also illustrated the effect of model degrees of freedom on power.^

Changes in 911 call volume and type during Hurricane Ike and the implementation and usefulness of the TeleHealth Nurse system for the Houston Fire Department

This study examined both changing call volume and type with resulting effect of TeleHealth Nurse, the Houston Fire Department's (HFD) telephone nurse line, on call burden during Hurricane Ike. On September 13, 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall in the Galveston area and continued north through Houston resulting in catastrophic damages in infrastructure and posing a public health threat. The overall goal of this study looked at data from Houston Fire Department to obtain a better understanding of the needs of citizens before, during, and after a hurricane. This study looked at four aspects of emergency response from HFD. The first section looked at call volumes surrounding the time of Hurricane Ike in 2008 compared to the same time period in 2007. The data showed a 12% increase in calls surrounding Hurricane Ike compared to previous years with a p value <.001. Next, the study evaluated the types of calls prevalent during Hurricane Ike compared to the same time period in 2007. The data showed a statistically significant increase in chronic health problems such as diabetes and cardiac events, Obstetric calls and an increase in breathing problems, falls, and lacerations during the days following Hurricane Ike. There was also a statistically significant increase in auto med alerts and check patients surrounding Hurricane Ike's landfall. The third section analyzed the change in call volume sent to HFD's Telephone Nurse Line during Hurricane Ike and compares this to earlier time periods while the fourth and final section looks at the types of calls sent to the nurse line during Hurricane Ike. The data showed limited use of the TeleHealth Nurse line before Hurricane Ike, but when the winds were at their strongest and ambulances were unable to leave the station, the nurse line was the only functioning medical help some people were able to receive. These studies bring a better understanding to the number and types of calls that a city might experience during a natural disaster, such as a hurricane. This study also shows the usefulness of an EMS Telephone Nurse Line during a natural disaster.^

Teaching safety at a summer camp: Evaluation of a children's fire safety curriculum in an urban community setting

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Danger Rangers Fire Safety Curriculum in increasing the fire safety knowledge of low-income, minority children in pre-kindergarten to third grade in Austin, TX during a summer day camp in 2007.^ Methods: Data was collected from child participants via teacher and researcher administered tests at pretest, posttest (immediately after the completion of the fire safety module), and at a 3 week follow-up to asses retention. In addition, a self-administered questionnaire was collected from parents pre- and post-intervention to assess home-related fire/burn risk factors. Paired t-tests were conducted using STATA 12.0 to evaluate pretest, posttest, and retention test mean scores as well as mean fire safety rules listed by grade group. McNemar's test was used to determine if there was a difference in fire-related risk factors as reported by the parents of the participants before and after the intervention. Only those who had paired data for the tests/surveys being compared were included in the analysis.^ Results: The first/second grade group and the third grade group scored significantly higher on fire safety knowledge on the posttest compared to the pretest (p<0.0001 for both groups). However, there was no significant change in knowledge scores for the pre-kindergarten to kindergarten group (p=0.14). Among the first/second grade group, knowledge levels did not significantly decline between the posttest and retention test (p=0.25). However, the third grade group had significantly lower fire safety knowledge scores on the retention test compared to the posttest (p<0.001). A similar increase was seen in the amount of fire safety rules listed after the intervention (p<0.0001 between pre and posttest for both the first/second grade and third grade groups), with no decline from the posttest to the retention test (p=0.50) for the first/second grade group, but a significant decline in the third grade group (p=0.001). McNemar's chi-square test showed a significant increase in the percentage of participants' parents reporting smoke detector testing on a regular basis and having a fire escape plan for their family after the intervention (p=0.01 and p<0.0001, respectively). However, there was no significant change in the frequency of reports of the child playing in the kitchen while the parent cooks or the house/apartment having a working smoke detector.^ Conclusion: We found that general fire safety knowledge improved and the number of specific fire safety rules increased among the first to third grade children who participated in the Danger Rangers fire safety program. However, it did not significantly increase general fire safety knowledge among the pre-k/k group. This study also showed that a program targeted towards children has the potential to influence familial risk factors by proxy. The Danger Rangers Fire Safety Curriculum should be further evaluated by conducting a randomized controlled trial, using valid measures that assess fire safety attitudes, beliefs, behaviors, as well as fire/burn related outcomes.^

Use of universal precautions in the workplace: A comparison of two fire /EMS services

The Health Belief Model (HBM) provided the theoretical framework for examining Universal Precautions (UP) compliance factors by Firefighter, EMTs and Paramedics (prehospital care providers). A convenient sample of prehospital care providers (n = 4000) from two cities (Houston and Washington DC), were surveyed to explore the factors related to their decision to comply with Universal Precautions. Eight hundred and sixty-five useable questionnaires were analyzed. The responders were primarily male (95.7%) eight hundred and twenty-eight and thirty-seven were female, prehospital based (100%), EMTs (60.0%) and paramedics (12.8%) who had a mean 13 years of prehospital care experience. ^ Linear regression was used to evaluate the four hypotheses. The first hypothesis evaluating perceived susceptibility and seriousness with reported UP use was statistically significant (p = < .05). Perceived susceptibility, when considered independently, did not make a significant contribution (t = −4.2852; p = 0.0000) to the stated use of Universal precautions. The hypothesis is not supported as stated. The data indicates the opposite effect. Supported is the premise that as perceived susceptibility and perceived seriousness increase the use of Universal Precautions decreases. Hypothesis two tested perceived benefits with internal and external barriers. Both perceived benefits and internal and external barriers as well as the overall regression were significant (F = 112.6, p = 0.0000). The contribution of internal and external barriers was statistically significant (t = 0.0175; p = 0.0000) and (t = 0.0128; p = 0.0000). Hypothesis three which tested modifying factors, cues to action, select demographic variables, and the main effects of the HBM with self reported UP compliance overall was significant. The variables gender, birth, education, job type, EMS certification, years of service, years of experience providing patient care, Universal Precautions training hours, type of apparatus assigned to and the number of EMS related incidents responded to in a month were found to have a significant contribution to the stated use of Universal Precautions. ^ The additive effects were tested by use of a stepwise regression that assessed the contribution of each of the significant variables. Three variables in the equation were statistically significant. Internal barriers (t = −8.5507; p = 0.0000), external barriers (t = −6.2862; p = 0.000) and job type 2 & 3. Job type two (t = −2.8464; p = 0.0045 is titled Engineer/Operator. Job type three (t = −2.5730; p = 0.0103) is titled captain. The overall regression was significant (F = 24.06; p = 0.000). The Hypothesis is supported in the certain demographic variables do influence the stated use of Universal precautions and that as internal and external barriers are decreased, there is an increase in the stated use of Universal Precautions. ^ In summary, this study demonstrated that internal and external barriers have a significant impact on the stated use of Universal Precautions. Internal barriers are those factors within the individual that require an internal change (i.e., forgetfulness, freedom, perception of the urgency of the patient's needs etc.) and external barriers are things in the environment that can be altered (i.e., equipment design, availability of equipment, ease of use). These two model variables explained 23%–30% of the variance. ^