Probability and story-telling : normative and descriptive models of juridical proof

The operation of the law rests on the selection of an account of the facts. Whether this involves prediction or postdiction, it is not possible to achieve certainty. Any attempt to model the operation of the law completely will therefore raise questions of how to model the process of proof. In the selection of a model a crucial question will be whether the model is to be used normatively or descriptively. Focussing on postdiction, this paper presents and contrasts the mathematical model with the story model. The former carries the normative stamp of scientific approval, whereas the latter has been developed by experimental psychologists to describe how humans reason. Neil Cohen's attempt to use a mathematical model descriptively provides an illustration of the dangers in not clearly setting this parameter of the modelling process. It should be kept in mind that the labels 'normative' and 'descriptive' are not eternal. The mathematical model has its normative limits, beyond which we may need to critically assess models with descriptive origins.

ACE research briefing paper 007 : Ken Talbot - an entrepreneur's contribution to the growth of the Australian Mining Industry

Ken Talbot was one of Australian mining’s most successful entrepreneurs and rose to the top of his industry to become one of Australia’s wealthiest men. Although the nation’s resources industry is synonymous with global names such as Xstrata, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, Ken was an individual who made a big impact on the development and growth of the sector. This case study examines Ken’s achievements, his transition from employee to entrepreneur, and the qualities that enabled him to succeed at such a high level. In particular, it focuses on his Jellinbah and Coppabella mining developments that directly led to the creation of Macarthur Coal and the Talbot Group. By the time of his premature death in an African plane crash in 2010, Ken had amassed a fortune estimated at almost $1 billion and was aged just 59. The last publically available Talbot Group annual report for calendar year 2009 showed that the investment portfolio of the group returned 113 per cent that year. Even throughout the global financial crisis the portfolio made a positive return on investment of no less than 10 per cent. Ken’s sense of mateship and his tremendous people skills were keys to his success in the mining industry and the wider community. In addition to excelling in business, he is also remembered for his philanthropy and leaving 30 per cent of his estate to charity through the Talbot Family Foundation.

Conducting accelerometer-based activity assessments in field-based research

Purpose The purpose of this review is to address important methodological issues related to conducting accelerometer-based assessments of physical activity in free-living individuals. Methods We review the extant scientific literature for empirical information related to the following issues: product selection, number of accelerometers needed, placement of accelerometers, epoch length, and days of monitoring required to estimate habitual physical activity. We also discuss the various options related to distributing and collecting monitors and strategies to enhance compliance with the monitoring protocol. Results No definitive evidence exists currently to indicate that one make and model of accelerometer is more valid and reliable than another. Selection of accelerometer therefore remains primarily an issue of practicality, technical support, and comparability with other studies. Studies employing multiple accelerometers to estimate energy expenditure report only marginal improvements in explanatory power. Accelerometers are best placed on hip or the lower back. Although the issue of epoch length has not been studied in adults, the use of count cut points based on 1-min time intervals maybe inappropriate in children and may result in underestimation of physical activity. Among adults, 3–5 d of monitoring is required to reliably estimate habitual physical activity. Among children and adolescents, the number of monitoring days required ranges from 4 to 9 d, making it difficult to draw a definitive conclusion for this population. Face-to-face distribution and collection of accelerometers is probably the best option in field-based research, but delivery and return by express carrier or registered mail is a viable option. Conclusion Accelerometer-based activity assessments requires careful planning and the use of appropriate strategies to increase compliance.

Functional independence following subacute inpatient rehabilitation was not affected by age among older patients recovering from cardiac-related hospital admissions

Introduction Older people recovering from cardiac events requiring an acute hospital admission may experience a decline in physical function limiting their ability to return home to their previous accommodation. Subacute inpatient rehabilitation therapies have potential to assist recovery of physical functioning. However, it is unknown whether age influences the length of stay or physical functioning at discharge from subacute inpatient rehabilitation for this population. Objectives This study examined the outcomes of a cohort of older patients recovering from a cardiac event requiring hospitalisation to investigate the association between age and physical function at discharge, as well as age and length of rehabilitation stay. Methods Participants included 145 consecutive inpatient admissions to a subacute geriatric assessment and rehabilitation unit with a cardiac condition as their primary reason for hospital admission. Participants were required to complete a multi-disciplinary physical functioning assessment within 72 hours of admission to the unit, and again within 72 hours prior to discharge from the unit. The primary outcome measure was the Functional Independence Measure motor score. Demographic and clinical information, including length of stay and discharge destination, were also recorded. Results A total n=126 (87%) participants, with a mean (standard deviation) age of 79 (10) years, had both assessments completed and were included in analyses. Participants who had passed away (n=4, 3%), or did not have both assessments completed per protocol were excluded from analyses. Discharge destinations included home (n=101, 80%), residential aged care (n=17, 13%) and another hospital (n=8, 6%). The (median, interquartile range) Functional Independence Measure motor score was higher at discharge (79, 71 to 84) than admission (61, 48 to 71); z=7.75 p<0.001. Age was not associated with Functional Independence Measure motor score at discharge (t= -0.18, p=0.86), or length of stay in the rehabilitation unit (t= -0.52, 0.60). Conclusion Any perception that age may be associated with longer lengths of stay and reduced physical function outcomes among patients with cardiac conditions admitted for subacute inpatient rehabilitation for older adults is not supported data from this investigation. Older age should not be considered a disincentive when considering the suitability of patients with cardiac diagnoses for this type of inpatient rehabilitation or their potential physical functioning outcome.

Outsourcing income tax returns : convenient and/or controversial

This paper investigates the outsourcing of income tax return preparation by Australian accounting firms. It identifies the extent to which firms are currently outsourcing accounting services or considering outsourcing accounting services, with a focus on personal and business income tax return preparation. The motivations and barriers for outsourcing by Australian accounting firms are also considered in this paper. Privacy, security of client data, and the competence of the outsourcing provider's staff have been identified as risks associated with outsourcing. An expectation relating to confidentiality of client data is also examined in this paper. Statistical analysis of data collected from a random sample of Australian accounting firms using a survey questionnaire provided the empirical data for the paper. The results indicate that the majority of Australian accounting firms are either currently outsourcing or considering outsourcing accounting services, and firms are outsourcing taxation preparation both onshore and offshore. The results also indicate that firms expect the volume of outsourced work to increase in the future. In contrast to the literature identifying labour arbitrage as the primary driver for organisations choosing to outsource, this study found that the main factors considered by accounting firms in the decision to outsource were to expedite delivery of services to clients and to enable the firm to focus on core competencies. Data from this study also supports the literature which ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this study.

Cisplatin treatment of primary and metastatic epithelial ovarian carcinomas generates residual cells with mesenchymal stem cell-like profile

Epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT) and cancer stem cells (CSC) have been associated with resistance to chemotherapy. Eighty percent of ovarian cancer patients initially respond to platinum-based combination therapy but most return with recurrence and ultimate demise. To better understand such chemoresistance we have assessed the potential role of EMT in tumor cells collected from advanced-stage ovarian cancer patients and the ovarian cancer cell line OVCA 433 in response to cisplatin in vitro. We demonstrate that cisplatin-induced transition from epithelial to mesenchymal morphology in residual cancer cells correlated with reduced E-cadherin, and increased N-cadherin and vimentin expression. The mRNA expression of Snail, Slug, Twist, and MMP-2 were significantly enhanced in response to cisplatin and correlated with increased migration. This coincided with increased cell surface expression of CSC-like markers such as CD44, α2 integrin subunit, CD117, CD133, EpCAM, and the expression of stem cell factors Nanog and Oct-4. EMT and CSC-like changes in response to cisplatin correlated with enhanced activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK)1/2. The selective MEK inhibitor U0126 inhibited ERK2 activation and partially suppressed cisplatin-induced EMT and CSC markers. In vivo xenotransplantation of cisplatin-treated OVCA 433 cells in zebrafish embryos demonstrated significantly enhanced migration of cells compared to control untreated cells. U0126 inhibited cisplatin-induced migration of cells in vivo, suggesting that ERK2 signaling is critical to cisplatin-induced EMT and CSC phenotypes, and that targeting ERK2 in the presence of cisplatin may reduce the burden of residual tumor, the ultimate cause of recurrence in ovarian cancer patients.

Aspects of Keno modelling

In two earlier papers, an intricate Jackpot structure and analysis of pseudo-random numbers for Keno in the Australian state of Queensland circa 2000 were described. Aspects of the work were also reported at an international conference . Since that time, many aspects of the game in Australia have changed. The present paper presents more up-to-date details of Keno throughout the states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. A much simpler jackpot structure is now in place and this is described. Two add-ons or side-bets to the game are detailed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player (ERTP) are presented in all cases.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

The subset sum problem in Keno modelling

Aspects of Keno modelling throughout the Australian states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria are discussed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player are presented in each case.

Enhancing paramedics procedural skills using a cadaveric model

Background Paramedic education has evolved in recent times from vocational post-employment to tertiary pre-employment supplemented by clinical placement. Simulation is advocated as a means of transferring learned skills to clinical practice. Sole reliance of simulation learning using mannequin-based models may not be sufficient to prepare students for variance in human anatomy. In 2012, we trialled the use of fresh frozen human cadavers to supplement undergraduate paramedic procedural skill training. The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether cadaveric training is an effective adjunct to mannequin simulation and clinical placement. Methods A multi-method approach was adopted. The first step involved a Delphi methodology to formulate and validate the evaluation instrument. The instrument comprised of knowledge-based MCQs, Likert for self-evaluation of procedural skills and behaviours, and open answer. The second step involved a pre-post evaluation of the 2013 cadaveric training. Results One hundred and fourteen students attended the workshop and 96 evaluations were included in the analysis, representing a return rate of 84%. There was statistically significant improved anatomical knowledge after the workshop. Students' self-rated confidence in performing procedural skills on real patients improved significantly after the workshop: inserting laryngeal mask (MD 0.667), oropharyngeal (MD 0.198) and nasopharyngeal (MD 0.600) airways, performing Bag-Valve-Mask (MD 0.379), double (MD 0.344) and triple (MD 0.326,) airway manoeuvre, doing 12-lead electrocardiography (MD 0.729), using McGrath(R) laryngoscope (MD 0.726), using McGrath(R) forceps to remove foreign body (MD 0.632), attempting thoracocentesis (MD 1.240), and putting on a traction splint (MD 0.865). The students commented that the workshop provided context to their theoretical knowledge and that they gained an appreciation of the differences in normal tissue variation. Following engagement in/ completion of the workshop, students were more aware of their own clinical and non-clinical competencies. Conclusions The paramedic profession has evolved beyond patient transport with minimal intervention to providing comprehensive both emergency and non-emergency medical care. With limited availability of clinical placements for undergraduate paramedic training, there is an increasing demand on universities to provide suitable alternatives. Our findings suggested that cadaveric training using fresh frozen cadavers provides an effective adjunct to simulated learning and clinical placements.

Idealised simulation of downburst winds

Convectively driven downburst winds pose a threat to structures and communities in many regions of Australia not subject to tropical cyclones. Extreme value analysis shows that for return periods of interest to engineering design these events produce higher gust wind speeds than synoptic scale windstorms. Despite this, comparatively little is known of the near ground wind structure of these potentially hazardous windstorms. With this in mind, a series of idealised three-dimensional numerical simulations were undertaken to investigate convective storm wind fields. A dry, non-hydrostatic, sub-cloud model with parameterisation of the microphysics was used. Simulations were run with a uniform 20 m horizontal grid resolution and a variable vertical resolution increasing from 1 m. A systematic grid resolution study showed further refinement did not alter the morphological structure of the outflow. Simulations were performed for stationary downbursts in a quiescent air field, stationary downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds, and also translating downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds.

Loading of a very tall building in a simulated downburst wind field

Thunderstorm downbursts are important for wind engineers as they have been shown to produce the design wind speeds for mid to high return periods in many regions of Australia [1]. In structural design codes (e.g. AS/NZS1170.02-02) an atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is assumed, and a vertical profile is interpolated from recorded 10 m wind speeds. The ABL assumption is however inaccurate when considering the complex structure of a thunderstorm outflow, and its effects on engineered structures. Several researchers have shown that the downburst, close to its point of divergence is better represented by an impinging wall jet profile than the traditional ABL. Physical modelling is the generally accepted approach to estimate wind loads on structures and it is therefore important to physically model the thunderstorm downburst so that its effects on engineered structures may be studied. An advancement on the simple impinging jet theory, addressed here is the addition of a pulsing mechanism to the jet which allows not only the divergent characteristics of a downburst to be produced, but also it allows the associated leading ring vortex to be developed. The ring vortex modelling is considered very important for structural design as it is within the horizontal vortex that the largest velocities occur [2]. This paper discusses the flow field produced by a pulsed wall jet, and also discusses the induced pressures that this type of flow has on a scaled tall building.

Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

Predicting stock market returns and volatility with investor sentiment : evidence from eight developed countries

We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.

Online video in education : acquisition, value & ROI

The session explores the potential for “Patron Driven Acquisition” (PDA) as a model for the acquisition of online video. Today, PDA has become a standard model of acquisition in the eBook market, more effectively aligning spend with use and increased return on investment (ROI). PDA is an unexplored model for acquisition of video, for which library collection development is complicated by higher storage and delivery costs, labor overheads for content selection and acquisition, and a dynamic film industry in which media and the technology that supports it is changing daily. Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and La Trobe University in Australia launched a research project in collaboration with Kanopy to explore the opportunity for PDA of video. The study relied on three data sources: (1) national surveys to compare the video purchasing and use practices of colleges, (2) on-campus pilot projects of PDA models to assess user engagement and behavior, and (3) testing of various user applications and features to support the model. The study incorporates usage statistics and survey data and builds upon a peer-reviewed research paper presented at the VALA 2014 conference in Melbourne, Australia. This session will be conducted by the researchers and will graphically present the results from the study. It will map out a future for video PDA, and how libraries can more cost-effectively acquire and maximize the discoverability of online video. The presenters will also solicit input and welcome questions from audience members.