Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

W-singularities in cosmological models

Recently a new type of cosmological singularity has been postulated for infinite barotropic index w in the equation of state p = wρ of the cosmological fluid, but vanishing pressure and density at the singular event. Apparently the barotropic index w would be the only physical quantity to blow up at the singularity. In this talk we would like to discuss the strength of such singularities and compare them with other types. We show that they are weak singularities

Equation of state for hot dense matter using a relativistic screened hydrogenic model

The study of matter under conditions of high density, pressure, and temperature is a valuable subject for inertial confinement fusion (ICF), astrophysical phenomena, high-power laser interaction with matter, etc. In all these cases, matter is heated and compressed by strong shocks to high pressures and temperatures, becomes partially or completely ionized via thermal or pressure ionization, and is in the form of dense plasma. The thermodynamics and the hydrodynamics of hot dense plasmas cannot be predicted without the knowledge of the equation of state (EOS) that describes how a material reacts to pressure and how much energy is involved. Therefore, the equation of state often takes the form of pressure and energy as functions of density and temperature. Furthermore, EOS data must be obtained in a timely manner in order to be useful as input in hydrodynamic codes. By this reason, the use of fast, robust and reasonably accurate atomic models, is necessary for computing the EOS of a material.

Mathematical models for the arrangement and the cleaning of the river basin and surroundings of the river sandy grounds to its passage by the city of Salta (Argentina)

The province of Salta is located the Northwest of Argentina in the border with Bolivia, Chile and Paraguay. Its Capital is the city of Salta that concentrates half of the inhabitants of the province and has grown to 600000 hab., from a small active Spanish town well founded in 1583. The city is crossed by the Arenales River descending from close mountains at North, source of water and end of sewers. But with actual growing it has become a focus of infection and of remarkable unhealthiness. It is necessary to undertake a plan for the recovery of the river, directed to the attainment of the well-being and to improve the life?s quality of the Community. The fundamental idea of the plan is to obtain an ordering of the river basin and an integral management of the channel and its surroundings, including the cleaning out. The improvement of the water?s quality, the healthiness of the surroundings and the improvement of the environment, must go hand by hand with the development of sport activities, of relaxation, tourism, establishment of breeding grounds, kitchen gardens, micro enterprises with clean production and other actions that contribute to their benefit by the society, that being a basic factor for their care and sustainable use. The present pollution is organic, chemical, industrial, domestic, due to the disposition of sweepings and sewer effluents that affects not only the flora and small fauna, destroying the biodiversity, but also to the health of people living in their margins. Within the plan it will be necessary to consider, besides hydric and environmental cleaning and the prevention of floods, the planning of the extraction of aggregates, the infrastructure and consolidation of margins works and the arrangement of all the river basin. It will be necessary to consider the public intervention at state, provincial and local level, and the private intervention. In the model it has been necessary to include the sub-model corresponding to the election of the entity to be the optimal instrument to reach the proposed objectives, giving an answer to the social, environmental and economic requirements. For that the authors have used multi-criteria decision methods to qualify and select alternatives, and for the programming of their implementation. In the model the authors have contemplated the short, average and long term actions. They conform a Paretooptimal alternative which secures the ordering, integral and suitable management of the basin of the Arenales River, focusing on its passage by the city of Salta.

Service needs forecasting: an approach for the automotive industry using analogies with medical ER management models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, car makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper establishes a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER.

SERVICE NEEDS FORECASTING: An Approach for the Motor Industry Using Analogies with Medical ER Management Models.

During the past years, the industry has shifted position and moved towards “the luxury universe” whose customers are demanding, treating individuals as unique and valued customer for the business, offering vehicles produced with the state of the art technologies and implementing the highest finishing standards. Due to the competitive level in the market, motor makers enable processes which equalizes customer services to E.R. management, being dealt with the maximum urgency that allows the comparison between both, car workshops and emergency rooms, where workshop bays or ramps will be equal to emergency boxes and skilled technicians are equivalent to the health care specialist, who will carry out tests and checks prior to afford any final operation, keeping the “patient” under control before it is back to normal utilization. This paper ratify a valid model for the automotive industry to estimate customer service demand forecasting under variable demand conditions using analogies with patient demand models used for the medical ER

The Analysis of Airline Business Models in the Development of Possible Future Business Options

Innovations in the current interconnected world of organizations have lead to a focus on business models as a fundamental statement of direction and identity. Although industry transformations generally emanate from technological changes, recent examples suggest they may also be due to the introduction of new business models. In the past, different types of airline business models could be clearly separated from each other. However, this has changed in recent years partly due to the concentration process and partly to reaction caused by competitive pressure. At least it can be concluded that in future the distinction of different business models will remain less clear. To advance the use of business models as a concept, it is essential to be able to compare and perform analyses to identify the business models that may have the highest potential. This can essentially contribute to understanding the synergies and incompatibilities in the case of two airlines that are going in for a merger. This is illustrated by the example of Swiss Air-Lufthansa merger analysis. The idea is to develop quantitative methods and tools for comparing and analyzing Aeronautical/Airline business models. The paper identifies available methods of comparing airline business models and lays the ground work for a quantitative model of comparing airline business models. This can be a useful tool for business model analysis when two airlines are merged

Propuesta metodológica de aplicación sectorial de Análisis de Ciclo de Vida (ACV) para la evaluación ambiental de la edificación en España

La aplicación de criterios de sostenibilidad ha de entenderse como el procedimiento esencial para la necesaria reconversión del sector de la construcción, que movilizando el 10% de la economía mundial, representa más de la tercera parte del consumo mundial de recursos, en torno al 30-40% del consumo energético y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, 30-40% de la generación de residuos y el 12% de todo el gasto en agua dulce del planeta. La presente investigación se enmarca en una estrategia general de promover la evaluación de la sostenibilidad en la edificación en el contexto español, dando un primer paso centrado en la evaluación del comportamiento ambiental. El hilo conductor de la investigación parte de la necesidad de establecer un marco teórico de sostenibilidad, que permita clarificar conceptos y definir criterios de valoración adecuados. Como siguiente paso, la investigación se dirige a la revisión del panorama internacional de normativa e instrumentos voluntarios, con el objetivo de clarificar el difuso panorama que caracteriza a la sostenibilidad en el sector de la edificación en la actualidad y enmarcar la investigación en un contexto de políticas y programaciones ya existentes. El objetivo principal reside en el planteamiento de una metodología de evaluación de los aspectos o impactos ambientales asociados al ciclo de vida de la edificación, aplicable al contexto español, como una de las tres dimensiones que constituyen los pilares básicos de la sostenibilidad. Los ámbitos de evaluación de los aspectos sociales y económicos, para los que no existe actualmente un grado de definición metodológico suficientemente congruente, son adicionalmente examinados, de cara a ofrecer una visión holística de la evaluación. Previo al desarrollo de la propuesta, se aborda, en primer lugar, la descripción de las características básicas y limitaciones de la metodología de Análisis de Ciclo de Vida (ACV), para posteriormente proceder a profundizar en el estado del arte de aplicación de ACV a la edificación, realizando una revisión crítica de los trabajos de investigación que han sido desarrollados en los últimos años. Esta revisión permite extraer conclusiones sobre su grado de coherencia con el futuro entorno normativo e identificar dos necesidades prioritarias de actuación: -La necesidad de armonización, dadas las fuertes inconsistencias metodológicas detectadas, que imposibilitan la comparación de los resultados obtenidos en los trabajos de evaluación. -La necesidad de simplificación, dada la complejidad inherente a la evaluación, de modo que, manteniendo el máximo rigor, sea viable su aplicación práctica en el contexto español. A raíz de la participación en los trabajos de desarrollo normativo a nivel europeo, se ha adquirido una visión crítica sobre las implicaciones metodológicas de la normativa en definición, que permite identificar la hoja de ruta que marcará el escenario europeo en los próximos años. La definición de la propuesta metodológica integra los principios generales de aplicación de ACV con el protocolo metodológico establecido en la norma europea, considerando adicionalmente las referencias normativas de las prácticas constructivas en el contexto español. En el planteamiento de la propuesta se han analizado las posibles simplificaciones aplicables, con el objetivo de hacer viable su implementación, centrando los esfuerzos en la sistematización del concepto de equivalente funcional, el establecimiento de recomendaciones sobre el tipo de datos en función de su disponibilidad y la revisión crítica de los modelos de cálculo de los impactos ambientales. Las implicaciones metodológicas de la propuesta se describen a través de una serie de casos de estudio, que ilustran su viabilidad y las características básicas de aplicación. Finalmente, se realiza un recorrido por los aspectos que han sido identificados como prioritarios en la conformación del escenario de perspectivas futuras, líneas de investigación y líneas de acción. Abstract Sustainability criteria application must be understood as the essential procedure for the necessary restructuring of the construction sector, which mobilizes 10% of the world economy, accounting for more than one third of the consumption of the world's resources, around 30 - 40% of energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases, 30-40% of waste generation and 12% of all the fresh water use in the world. This research is in line with an overall strategy to promote the sustainability assessment of building in the Spanish context, taking a first step focused on the environmental performance assessment. The thread of the present research sets out from the need to establish a theoretical framework of sustainability which clarifies concepts and defines appropriate endpoints. As a next step, the research focuses on the review of the international panorama regulations and voluntary instruments, with the aim of clarifying the fuzzy picture that characterizes sustainability in the building sector at present while framing the research in the context of existing policies and programming. The main objective lies in the approach of a methodology for the assessment of the environmental impacts associated with the life cycle of building, applicable to the Spanish context, as one of the three dimensions that constitute the pillars of sustainability. The areas of assessment of social and economic issues, for which there is currently a degree of methodological definition consistent enough, are further examined, in order to provide a holistic view of the assessment. The description of the basic features and limitations of the methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are previously addressed, later proceeding to deepen the state of the art of LCA applied to the building sector, conducting a critical review of the research works that have been developed in recent years. This review allows to establish conclusions about the degree of consistency with the future regulatory environment and to identify two priority needs for action: - The need for harmonization, given the strong methodological inconsistencies detected that prevent the comparison of results obtained in assessment works. - The need for simplification, given the inherent complexity of the assessment, so that, while maintaining the utmost rigor, make the practical application feasible in the Spanish context. The participation in the work of policy development at European level has helped to achieve a critical view of the methodological implications of the rules under debate, identifying the roadmap that will mark the European scene in the coming years. The definition of the proposed methodology integrates the general principles of LCA methodology with the protocol established in the European standard, also considering the regulatory standards to construction practices in the Spanish context. In the proposed approach, possible simplifications applicable have been analyzed, in order to make its implementation possible, focusing efforts in systematizing the functional equivalent concept, establishing recommendations on the type of data based on their availability and critical review of the calculation models of environmental impacts. The methodological implications of the proposal are described through a series of case studies, which illustrate the feasibility and the basic characteristics of its application. Finally, the main aspects related to future prospects, research lines and lines of action that have been identified as priorities are outlined.

Modal contribution and state space order selection in operational modal analysis

The estimation of modal parameters of a structure from ambient measurements has attracted the attention of many researchers in the last years. The procedure is now well established and the use of state space models, stochastic system identification methods and stabilization diagrams allows to identify the modes of the structure. In this paper the contribution of each identified mode to the measured vibration is discussed. This modal contribution is computed using the Kalman filter and it is an indicator of the importance of the modes. Also the variation of the modal contribution with the order of the model is studied. This analysis suggests selecting the order for the state space model as the order that includes the modes with higher contribution. The order obtained using this method is compared to those obtained using other well known methods, like Akaike criteria for time series or the singular values of the weighted projection matrix in the Stochastic Subspace Identification method. Finally, both simulated and measured vibration data are used to show the practicability of the derived technique. Finally, it is important to remark that the method can be used with any identification method working in the state space model.

A review of the potential of renewable energy sources for the State of Jammu and Kashmir (India)

The future economic development trajectory for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated growth in energy demand, with expected shortages. Many of its current policies and strategies are aimed at the improvement and possible maximization of energy production from the renewable sector. It is also clear that while energy-conservation and energy-efficiency can make an important contribution in the national energy strategy, renewable energies will be essential to the solution and are likely to play an increasingly important role for the growth of grid power, providing energy access, reducing consumption of fossil fuels, and helping India pursue its low carbon progressive pathway. However, most of the states in India, like the northernmost State of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), have experienced an energy crisis over a sustained period of time. As India intends to be one of the emerging powers of the 21st century, it has to embark upon with these pressing issues in a more sustainable manner and accordingly initiate various renewable energy projects within these states. This paper will provide a broad-spectrum view about the energy situation within J&K and will highlight the current policies along with future strategies for the optimal utilization of renewable energy resources.

News in engineering education in Spain effective from 2010 in presence of external changes and mixed crisis, looking mostly to agro and civil engineers.

The engineering careers models were diverse in Europe, and are adopting now in Spain the Bolonia process for European Universities. Separated from older Universities, that are in part technically active, Civil Engineering (Caminos, Canales y Puertos) started at end of 18th century in Spain adopting the French models of Upper Schools for state civil servants with exam at entry. After 1800 intense wars, to conserve forest regions Ingenieros de Montes appeared as Upper School, and in 1855 also the Ingenieros Agrónomos to push up related techniques and practices. Other Engineers appeared as Upper Schools but more towards private factories. These ES got all adapted Lower Schools of Ingeniero Tecnico. Recently both grew much in number and evolved, linked also to recognized Professions. Spanish society, into European Community, evolved across year 2000, in part highly well, but with severe discordances, that caused severe youth unemployment with 2008-2011 crisis. With Bolonia process high formal changes step in from 2010-11, accepted with intense adaptation. The Lower Schools are changing towards the Upper Schools, and both that have shifted since 2010-11 various 4-years careers (Grado), some included into the precedent Professions, and diverse Masters. Acceptation of them to get students has started relatively well, and will evolve, and acceptation of new grades for employment in Spain, Europe or outside will be essential. Each Grado has now quite rigid curricula and programs, MOODLE was introduced to connect pupils, some specific uses of Personal Computers are taught in each subject. Escuela de Agronomos centre, reorganized with its old name in its precedent buildings at entrance of Campus Moncloa, offers Grados of Agronomic Engineering and Science for various public and private activities for agriculture, Alimentary Engineering for alimentary activities and control, Agro-Environmental Engineering more related to environment activities, and in part Biotechnology also in laboratories in Campus Monte-Gancedo for Biotechnology of Plants and Computational Biotechnology. Curricula include Basics, Engineering, Practices, Visits, English, ?project of end of career?, Stays. Some masters will conduce to specific professional diploma, list includes now Agro-Engineering, Agro-Forestal Biotechnology, Agro and Natural Resources Economy, Complex Physical Systems, Gardening and Landscaping, Rural Genie, Phytogenetic Resources, Plant Genetic Resources, Environmental Technology for Sustainable Agriculture, Technology for Human Development and Cooperation.

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, select alternatives and development of plans for adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it.

There is evidence that the climate changes and that now, the change is influenced and accelerated by the CO2 augmentation in atmosphere due to combustion by humans. Such ?Climate change? is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most countries and international organisms UNO (e.g. Rio de Janeiro 1992), OECD, EC, etc . . . the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. The Protocol of Kyoto 1997 set international efforts about CO2 emissions, but it was partial and not followed e.g. by USA and China . . . , and in Durban 2011 the ineffectiveness of humanity on such global real challenges was set as evident. Among all that, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs, and the authors propose to enter in that frame for study. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model must help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, which will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly in especially vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will consider criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion) and environmental, at the present moment and the future. The intention is to obtain tools for aiding to get a realistic position for these challenges, which are an important part of the future problems of humanity in next decades.

Development of mathematical models to elaborate strategies, to select alternatives and the development of plans for the adaptation of communities to climate change in different geographical areas including costs to implement it

Climate change is on the policy agenda at the global level, with the aim of understanding and reducing its causes and to mitigate its consequences. In most of the countries and international organisms UNO, OECD, EC, etc … the efforts and debates have been directed to know the possible causes, to predict the future evolution of some variable conditioners, and trying to make studies to fight against the effects or to delay the negative evolution of such. Nevertheless, the elaboration of a global model was not boarded that can help to choose the best alternative between the feasible ones, to elaborate the strategies and to evaluate the costs. As in all natural, technological and social changes, the best-prepared countries will have the best bear and the more rapid recover. In all the geographic areas the alternative will not be the same one, but the model should help us to make the appropriated decision. It is essential to know those areas that are more sensitive to the negative effects of climate change, the parameters to take into account for its evaluation, and comprehensive plans to deal with it. The objective of this paper is to elaborate a mathematical model support of decisions, that will allow to develop and to evaluate alternatives of adaptation to the climatic change of different communities in Europe and Latin-America, mainly, in vulnerable areas to the climatic change, considering in them all the intervening factors. The models will take into consideration criteria of physical type (meteorological, edaphic, water resources), of use of the ground (agriculturist, forest, mining, industrial, urban, tourist, cattle dealer), economic (income, costs, benefits, infrastructures), social (population), politician (implementation, legislation), educative (Educational programs, diffusion), sanitary and environmental, at the present moment and the future.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

Modelización de los Procesos de Cristalización en Poliolefinas

“Por lo tanto, la cristalización de polímeros se supone, y en las teorías se describe a menudo, como un proceso de múltiples pasos con muchos aspectos físico-químicos y estructurales influyendo en él. Debido a la propia estructura de la cadena, es fácil entender que un proceso que es termodinámicamente forzado a aumentar su ordenamiento local, se vea obstaculizado geométricamente y, por tanto, no puede conducirse a un estado de equilibrio final. Como resultado, se forman habitualmente estructuras de no equilibrio con diferentes características dependiendo de la temperatura, presión, cizallamiento y otros parámetros físico-químicos del sistema”. Estas palabras, pronunciadas recientemente por el profesor Bernhard Wunderlich, uno de los mas relevantes fisico-quimicos que han abordado en las ultimas décadas el estudio del estado físico de las macromoléculas, adelantan lo que de alguna manera se explicita en esta memoria y constituyen el “leitmotiv” de este trabajo de tesis. El mecanismo de la cristalización de polímeros esta aun bajo debate en la comunidad de la física de polímeros y la mayoría de los abordajes experimentales se explican a través de la teoría LH. Esta teoría clásica debida a Lauritzen y Hoffman (LH), y que es una generalización de la teoría de cristalización de una molécula pequeña desde la fase de vapor, describe satisfactoriamente muchas observaciones experimentales aunque esta lejos de explicar el complejo fenómeno de la cristalización de polímeros. De hecho, la formulación original de esta teoría en el National Bureau of Standards, a comienzos de la década de los 70, sufrió varias reformulaciones importantes a lo largo de la década de los 80, buscando su adaptación a los hallazgos experimentales. Así nació el régimen III de cristalización que posibilita la creacion de nichos moleculares en la superficie y que dio pie al paradigma ofrecido por Sadler y col., para justificar los experimentos que se obtenian por “scattering” de neutrones y otras técnicas como la técnica de “droplets” o enfriamiento rapido. Por encima de todo, el gran éxito de la teoría radica en que explica la dependencia inversa entre el tamaño del plegado molecular y el subenfriamiento, definido este ultimo como el intervalo de temperatura que media entre la temperatura de equilibrio y la temperatura de cristalización. El problema concreto que aborda esta tesis es el estudio de los procesos de ordenamiento de poliolefinas con distinto grado de ramificacion mediante simulaciones numéricas. Los copolimeros estudiados en esta tesis se consideran materiales modelo de gran homogeneidad molecular desde el punto de vista de la distribución de tamaños y de ramificaciones en la cadena polimérica. Se eligieron estas poliolefinas debido al gran interes experimental en conocer el cambio en las propiedades fisicas de los materiales dependiendo del tipo y cantidad de comonomero utilizado. Además, son modelos sobre los que existen una ingente cantidad de información experimental, que es algo que preocupa siempre al crear una realidad virtual como es la simulación. La experiencia en el grupo Biophym es que los resultados de simulación deben de tener siempre un correlato mas o menos próximo experimental y ese argumento se maneja a lo largo de esta memoria. Empíricamente, se conoce muy bien que las propiedades físicas de las poliolefinas, en suma dependen del tipo y de la cantidad de ramificaciones que presenta el material polimérico. Sin embargo, tal como se ha explicado no existen modelos teóricos adecuados que expliquen los mecanismos subyacentes de los efectos de las ramas. La memoria de este trabajo es amplia por la complejidad del tema. Se inicia con una extensa introducción sobre los conceptos básicos de una macromolecula que son relevantes para entender el contenido del resto de la memoria. Se definen los conceptos de macromolecula flexible, distribuciones y momentos, y su comportamiento en disolución y fundido con los correspondientes parametros caracteristicos. Se pone especial énfasis en el concepto de “entanglement” o enmaranamiento por considerarse clave a la hora de tratar macromoléculas con una longitud superior a la longitud critica de enmaranamiento. Finaliza esta introducción con una reseña sobre el estado del arte en la simulación de los procesos de cristalización. En un segundo capitulo del trabajo se expone detalladamente la metodología usada en cada grupo de casos. En el primer capitulo de resultados, se discuten los estudios de simulación en disolución diluida para sistemas lineales y ramificados de cadena única. Este caso mas simple depende claramente del potencial de torsión elegido tal como se discute a lo largo del texto. La formación de los núcleos “babys” propuestos por Muthukumar parece que son consecuencia del potencial de torsión, ya que este facilita los estados de torsión mas estables. Así que se propone el análisis de otros potenciales que son igualmente utilizados y los resultados obtenidos sobre la cristalización, discutidos en consecuencia. Seguidamente, en un segundo capitulo de resultados se estudian moleculas de alcanos de cadena larga lineales y ramificados en un fundido por simulaciones atomisticas como un modelo de polietileno. Los resultados atomisticos pese a ser de gran detalle no logran captar en su totalidad los efectos experimentales que se observan en los fundidos subenfriados en su etapa previa al estado ordenado. Por esta razon se discuten en los capítulos 3 y 4 de resultados sistemas de cadenas cortas y largas utilizando dos modelos de grano grueso (CG-PVA y CG-PE). El modelo CG-PE se desarrollo durante la tesis. El uso de modelos de grano grueso garantiza una mayor eficiencia computacional con respecto a los modelos atomísticos y son suficientes para mostrar los fenómenos a la escala relevante para la cristalización. En todos estos estudios mencionados se sigue la evolución de los procesos de ordenamiento y de fusión en simulaciones de relajación isoterma y no isoterma. Como resultado de los modelos de simulación, se han evaluado distintas propiedades fisicas como la longitud de segmento ordenado, la cristalinidad, temperaturas de fusion/cristalizacion, etc., lo que permite una comparación con los resultados experimentales. Se demuestra claramente que los sistemas ramificados retrasan y dificultan el orden de la cadena polimérica y por tanto, las regiones cristalinas ordenadas decrecen al crecer las ramas. Como una conclusión general parece mostrarse una tendencia a la formación de estructuras localmente ordenadas que crecen como bloques para completar el espacio de cristalización que puede alcanzarse a una temperatura y a una escala de tiempo determinada. Finalmente hay que señalar que los efectos observados, estan en concordancia con otros resultados tanto teoricos/simulacion como experimentales discutidos a lo largo de esta memoria. Su resumen se muestra en un capitulo de conclusiones y líneas futuras de investigación que se abren como consecuencia de esta memoria. Hay que mencionar que el ritmo de investigación se ha acentuado notablemente en el ultimo ano de trabajo, en parte debido a las ventajas notables obtenidas por el uso de la metodología de grano grueso que pese a ser muy importante para esta memoria no repercute fácilmente en trabajos publicables. Todo ello justifica que gran parte de los resultados esten en fase de publicación. Abstract “Polymer crystallization is therefore assumed, and in theories often described, to be a multi step process with many influencing aspects. Because of the chain structure, it is easy to understand that a process which is thermodynamically forced to increase local ordering but is geometrically hindered cannot proceed into a final equilibrium state. As a result, nonequilibrium structures with different characteristics are usually formed, which depend on temperature, pressure, shearing and other parameters”. These words, recently written by Professor Bernhard Wunderlich, one of the most prominent researchers in polymer physics, put somehow in value the "leitmotiv "of this thesis. The crystallization mechanism of polymers is still under debate in the physics community and most of the experimental findings are still explained by invoking the LH theory. This classical theory, which was initially formulated by Lauritzen and Hoffman (LH), is indeed a generalization of the crystallization theory for small molecules from the vapor phase. Even though it describes satisfactorily many experimental observations, it is far from explaining the complex phenomenon of polymer crystallization. This theory was firstly devised in the early 70s at the National Bureau of Standards. It was successively reformulated along the 80s to fit the experimental findings. Thus, the crystallization regime III was introduced into the theory in order to explain the results found in neutron scattering, droplet or quenching experiments. This concept defines the roughness of the crystallization surface leading to the paradigm proposed by Sadler et al. The great success of this theory is the ability to explain the inverse dependence of the molecular folding size on the supercooling, the latter defined as the temperature interval between the equilibrium temperature and the crystallization temperature. The main scope of this thesis is the study of ordering processes in polyolefins with different degree of branching by using computer simulations. The copolymers studied along this work are considered materials of high molecular homogeneity, from the point of view of both size and branching distributions of the polymer chain. These polyolefins were selected due to the great interest to understand their structure– property relationships. It is important to note that there is a vast amount of experimental data concerning these materials, which is essential to create a virtual reality as is the simulation. The Biophym research group has a wide experience in the correlation between simulation data and experimental results, being this idea highly alive along this work. Empirically, it is well-known that the physical properties of the polyolefins depend on the type and amount of branches presented in the polymeric material. However, there are not suitable models to explain the underlying mechanisms associated to branching. This report is extensive due to the complexity of the topic under study. It begins with a general introduction to the basics concepts of macromolecular physics. This chapter is relevant to understand the content of the present document. Some concepts are defined along this section, among others the flexibility of macromolecules, size distributions and moments, and the behavior in solution and melt along with their corresponding characteristic parameters. Special emphasis is placed on the concept of "entanglement" which is a key item when dealing with macromolecules having a molecular size greater than the critical entanglement length. The introduction finishes with a review of the state of art on the simulation of crystallization processes. The second chapter of the thesis describes, in detail, the computational methodology used in each study. In the first results section, we discuss the simulation studies in dilute solution for linear and short chain branched single chain models. The simplest case is clearly dependent on the selected torsion potential as it is discussed throughout the text. For example, the formation of baby nuclei proposed by Mutukhumar seems to result from the effects of the torsion potential. Thus, we propose the analysis of other torsion potentials that are also used by other research groups. The results obtained on crystallization processes are accordingly discussed. Then, in a second results section, we study linear and branched long-chain alkane molecules in a melt by atomistic simulations as a polyethylene-like model. In spite of the great detail given by atomistic simulations, they are not able to fully capture the experimental facts observed in supercooled melts, in particular the pre-ordered states. For this reason, we discuss short and long chains systems using two coarse-grained models (CG-PVA and CG-PE) in section 3 and 4 of chapter 2. The CG-PE model was developed during the thesis. The use of coarse-grained models ensures greater computational efficiency with respect to atomistic models and is enough to show the relevant scale phenomena for crystallization. In all the analysis we follow the evolution of the ordering and melting processes by both isothermal and non isothermal simulations. During this thesis we have obtained different physical properties such as stem length, crystallinity, melting/crystallization temperatures, and so on. We show that branches in the chains cause a delay in the crystallization and hinder the ordering of the polymer chain. Therefore, crystalline regions decrease in size as branching increases. As a general conclusion, it seems that there is a tendency in the macromolecular systems to form ordered structures, which can grown locally as blocks, occupying the crystallization space at a given temperature and time scale. Finally it should be noted that the observed effects are consistent with both, other theoretical/simulation and experimental results. The summary is provided in the conclusions chapter along with future research lines that open as result of this report. It should be mentioned that the research work has speeded up markedly in the last year, in part because of the remarkable benefits obtained by the use of coarse-grained methodology that despite being very important for this thesis work, is not easily publishable by itself. All this justify that most of the results are still in the publication phase.