Circulation of private notes during a currency shortage

This paper provides a search theoretical model that captures two phenomena that have characterized several episodes of monetary history: currency shortages and the circulation of privately issued notes. As usual in these models, the media of exchange are determined as part of the equilibrium. We characterize all the different equilibria and specify the conditions under which there is a currency shortage and/or privately issued notes are used as means of payment. There is multiplicity of equilibria for the entire parameter space, but there always exist an equilibrium in which notes circulate, either alone or together with coins. Hence, credit is a self-fulfilling phenomenon that depends on the beliefs of agents about the acceptability and future repayment of notes. The degree of circulation of coins depends on two crucial parameters, the intrinsic utility of holding coins and the extent with which it is possible to find exchange opportunities in the market.

Implementation, elimination of weakly dominated strategies and evolutionary dynamics

This paper is concerned with the realism of mechanisms that implementsocial choice functions in the traditional sense. Will agents actually playthe equilibrium assumed by the analysis? As an example, we study theconvergence and stability properties of Sj\"ostr\"om's (1994) mechanism, onthe assumption that boundedly rational players find their way to equilibriumusing monotonic learning dynamics and also with fictitious play. Thismechanism implements most social choice functions in economic environmentsusing as a solution concept the iterated elimination of weakly dominatedstrategies (only one round of deletion of weakly dominated strategies isneeded). There are, however, many sets of Nash equilibria whose payoffs maybe very different from those desired by the social choice function. Withmonotonic dynamics we show that many equilibria in all the sets ofequilibria we describe are the limit points of trajectories that havecompletely mixed initial conditions. The initial conditions that lead tothese equilibria need not be very close to the limiting point. Furthermore,even if the dynamics converge to the ``right'' set of equilibria, it stillcan converge to quite a poor outcome in welfare terms. With fictitious play,if the agents have completely mixed prior beliefs, beliefs and play convergeto the outcome the planner wants to implement.

Endotoxin impairs cardiac hemodynamics by affecting loading conditions but not by reducing cardiac inotropism.

Acute myocardial dysfunction is a typical manifestation of septic shock. Experimentally, the administration of endotoxin [lipopolysacharride (LPS)] to laboratory animals is frequently used to study such dysfunction. However, a majority of studies used load-dependent indexes of cardiac function [including ejection fraction (EF) and maximal systolic pressure increment (dP/dt(max))], which do not directly explore cardiac inotropism. Therefore, we evaluated the direct effects of LPS on myocardial contractility, using left ventricular (LV) pressure-volume catheters in mice. Male BALB/c mice received an intraperitoneal injection of E. coli LPS (1, 5, 10, or 20 mg/kg). After 2, 6, or 20 h, cardiac function was analyzed in anesthetized, mechanically ventilated mice. All doses of LPS induced a significant drop in LV stroke volume and a trend toward reduced cardiac output after 6 h. Concomitantly, there was a significant decrease of LV preload (LV end-diastolic volume), with no apparent change in LV afterload (evaluated by effective arterial elastance and systemic vascular resistance). Load-dependent indexes of LV function were markedly reduced at 6 h, including EF, stroke work, and dP/dt(max). In contrast, there was no reduction of load-independent indexes of LV contractility, including end-systolic elastance (ejection phase measure of contractility) and the ratio dP/dt(max)/end-diastolic volume (isovolumic phase measure of contractility), the latter showing instead a significant increase after 6 h. All changes were transient, returning to baseline values after 20 h. Therefore, the alterations of cardiac function induced by LPS are entirely due to altered loading conditions, but not to reduced contractility, which may instead be slightly increased.

Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibrationexercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of theprocedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particularreference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide anoverview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problemand compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--lineardynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated modelto the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standardproblem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether amodel with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate savingand aggregate investment in an open economy.

Contrôle biologique de la pourriture cendrée (Macrophomina phaseolina) du niébé par l’enrobage des semences avec Clonostachys rosea: Impact des conditions de conservation des semences traitées sur la performance du bioagent.

Dans les sols infestés avec Macrophomina phaseolina les semences de niébé ne germent pas ou bien la plantule est détruite plus ou moins rapidement après la germination. Clonostachys rosea est un champignon commun du sol reconnu comme un saprophyte avec une haute capacité de compétition sur les racines et dans le sol. Notre étude a pour objectif d’évaluer l’effet de C. rosea en traitement de semences du niébé conservées à 40°C sur le développement de la pourriture charbonneuse. L’effet de la durée de conservation sur la viabilité des spores et le pouvoir antagonique du bioagent a également été étudié dans les conditions semi contrôlé et au champ. Les isolats de C. rosea proviennent de la collection du laboratoire de phytopathologie de AGRHYMET. La production des spores a été effectuée sur le milieu PDA pendant 4 semaines. Les semences du niébé ont été traitées avec une suspension de spores à la concentration de 108 spores / ml à raison de 5 ml de suspension par kg de semences. Les semences traitées ont été séchées sous la hotte à flux laminaire pendant 2 h avant d’être semées ou conservées à 40°C. Des tests de viabilité des spores de C. rosea sur le milieu de culture PDA ont été effectués au laboratoire tous les 15 jours de conservation. Le taux de germination des semences sur papier buvard, évalué au cinquième jour après semis au laboratoire a été de 99 %. La forte moyenne de spores viables au jour de l’enrobage (J0) (>4,5 105), a chuté à 1700 spores par graines après 75 jours de conservation. En serre, le niveau de colonisation des tissus des plants de niébé se développant sur le sol infesté a été significativement plus faible chez les plants issus de graines enrobées (1009 microsclérotes/g tissus) que chez ceux issus de graines non enrobées (2356 microsclérotes/g tissus). Par rapport a la sévérité de la maladie, exprimée sur une échelle de 1-5, ont été notées une forte infection des plants du témoin Macrophomina (graines non traitées semées dans un sol infesté) et des attaques moins sévères sur les traitements G3M et G4M (graines traitées semées dans un sol infesté). Au champ dans l’essai semé avec des graines enrobées mais non conservées, l’association des isolats G3 et G4 a été nettement supérieure aux autres traitements par rapport aux rendements en fane et en graines. Par contre, par rapport au rendement, aucun effet des traitements n’a été observé dans l’essai semé avec les graines conservées pendant 30 jours.

Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).

Assessing an intuitive condition for stability under a range of traffic conditions via a generalised Lu-Kumar network

We argue the importance both of developing simple sufficientconditions for the stability of general multiclass queueing networks and also of assessing such conditions under a range of assumptions on the weight of the traffic flowing between service stations. To achieve the former, we review a peak-rate stability condition and extend its range of application and for the latter, we introduce a generalisation of the Lu-Kumar network on which the stability condition may be tested for a range of traffic configurations. The peak-rate condition is close to exact when the between-station traffic is light, but degrades as this traffic increases.

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate a dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for humancapital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.

Ambiguity in election games

We construct a model in which the ambiguity of candidates allows them toincrease the number of voters to whom they appeal when voters have intense preferences for one of the alternatives available. An ambiguous candidate may offer voters with different preferences the hope that their most preferred alternative will be implemented. We find conditions under which ambiguous strategies are chosen in equilibrium. These conditions include the case in which there is an outcome that is a majority winner against all other outcomes but is not the most preferred outcome for a majority of voters. It is shown that if the number of candidates or parties increases, ambiguity will not be possible in equilibrium, but a larger set of possible policies increases the chance that at least one candidate will choose to be ambiguous in equilibrium.

A simple access pricing rule to achieve the Ramsey outcome for interconnected networks

This paper considers a general and informationally efficient approach to determine the optimal access pricing rule for interconnected networks. It shows that there exists a simple rule that achieves the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium when networks compete in linear prices without network-based price discrimination. The approach is informationally efficient in the sense that the regulator is required to know only the marginal cost structure, i.e. the marginal cost of making and terminating a call. The approach is general in that access prices can depend not only on the marginal costs but also on the retail prices, which can be observed by consumers and therefore by the regulator as well. In particular, I consider the set of linear access pricing rules which includes any fixed access price, the Efficient Component Pricing Rule (ECPR) and the Modified ECPR as special cases. I show that in this set, there is a unique rule that implements the Ramsey outcome as the unique equilibrium independently of the underlying demand conditions.

Trade, markup heterogeneity and misallocations

We argue that the procompetitive effect of international trade may bring about significant welfare costs that have not been recognized. We formulate a stylized general equilibrium model with a continuum of imperfectly competitive industries to show that, under plausible conditions, a trade-induced increase in competition can actually amplify monopoly distortions. This happens because trade, while lowering the average level of market power, may increase its cross-sectoral dispersion. Using data on US industries, we document a dramatic increase in the dispersion of market power overtime. We also show evidence thattrade might be responsible for it and provide some quantifications of the induced welfare cost. Our results suggest that, to avoid some unpleasant effects of globalization, trade integration should be accompanied by procompetitive reforms (i.e., deregulation) in the nontraded sectors.

Equilibrium unemployment insurance

In this paper, we incorporate a positive theory of unemployment insuranceinto a dynamic overlapping generations model with search-matching frictionsand on-the-job learning-by-doing. The model shows that societies populatedby identical rational agents, but differing in the initial distributionof human capital across agents, may choose very different unemploymentinsurance levels in a politico-economic equilibrium. The interactionbetween the political decision about the level of the unemployment insuranceand the optimal search behavior of the unemployed gives rise to aself-reinforcing mechanism whichmay generate multiple steady-stateequilibria. In particular, a European-type steady-state with highunemployment, low employment turnover and high insurance can co-exist withan American-type steady-state with low unemployment, high employment turnoverand low unemployment insurance. A calibrated version of the model featurestwo distinct steady-state equilibria with unemployment levels and durationrates resembling those of the U.S. and Europe, respectively.

The influence of environmental conditions on immune responses, morphology and recapture probability of nestling house martins (Delichon urbica)

Nestling birds produced later in the season are hypothesized to be of poor quality with a low probability of survival and recruitment. In a Spanish population of house martins (Delichon urbica), we first compared reproductive success, immune responses and morphological traits between the first and the second broods. Second, we investigated the effects of an ectoparasite treatment and breeding date on the recapture rate the following year. Due probably to a reverse situation in weather conditions during the experiment, with more rain during rearing of the first brood, nestlings reared during the second brood were in better condition and had stronger immune responses compared with nestlings from the first brood. Contrary to other findings on house martins, we found a similar recapture rate for chicks reared during the first and the second brood. Furthermore, ectoparasitic house martin bugs had no significant effect on the recapture rate. Recaptured birds had similar morphology but higher immunoglobulin levels when nestlings compared with non-recaptured birds. This result implies that a measure of immune function is a better predictor of survival than body condition per se.

Optimal taxation without state-contingent debt

To recover a version of Barro's (1979) `random walk'tax smoothing outcome, we modify Lucas and Stokey's (1983) economyto permit only risk--free debt. This imparts near unit root like behaviorto government debt, independently of the government expenditureprocess, a realistic outcome in the spirit of Barro's. We showhow the risk--free--debt--only economy confronts the Ramsey plannerwith additional constraints on equilibrium allocations thattake the form of a sequence of measurability conditions.We solve the Ramsey problem by formulating it in terms of a Lagrangian,and applying a Parameterized Expectations Algorithm tothe associated first--order conditions. The first--order conditions andnumerical impulse response functions partially affirmBarro's random walk outcome. Though the behaviors oftax rates, government surpluses, and government debts differ, allocationsare very close for computed Ramsey policies across incomplete and completemarkets economies.

Generic finiteness of equilibrium payoffs for bimatrix games

It is shown that in any affine space of payoff matrices the equilibriumpayoffs of bimatrix games are generically finite.