Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?

Exchange rate movements affect exports in two ways -- its depreciation and its variability (risk). A depreciation raises exports, but the associated exchange rate risk could offset that positive effect. The present paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation encourages exports, as expected, for most countries, but its contribution to export growth is weak. Exchange rate risk contributes to export growth in Malaysia and the Philippines, leading to positive net effects. Exchange rate risk generates a negative effect for six of the countries, resulting in a negative net effect in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and a zero net effect in Korea and Thailand. Since the negative effect of exchange rate risk may offset, or even dominate, positive contributions from depreciation, policy makers need to reduce exchange rate fluctuation along with and possibly before efforts to depreciate the currency.

Dynamic Effects of Currency Depreciation on Stock Market Returns during the Asian Financial Crisis

The current international integration of financial markets provides a channel for currency depreciation to affect stock prices. Moreover, the recent financial crisis in Asia with its accompanying exchange rate volatility affords a case study to examine that channel. This paper applies a bivariate GARCH-M model of the reduced form of stock market returns to investigate empirically the effects of daily currency depreciation on stock market returns for five newly emerging East Asian stock markets during the Asian financial crisis. The evidence shows that the conditional variances of stock market returns and depreciation rates exhibit time-varying characteristics for all countries. Domestic currency depreciation and its uncertainty adversely affects stock market returns across countries. The significant effects of foreign exchange market events on stock market returns suggest that international fund managers who invest in the newly emerging East Asian stock markets must evaluate the value and stability of the domestic currency as a part of their stock market investment decisions.

Cross-Country Evidence on Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance and GARCH Models

This paper revisits the issue of conditional volatility in real GDP growth rates for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Previous studies find high persistence in the volatility. This paper shows that this finding largely reflects a nonstationary variance. Output growth in the four countries became noticeably less volatile over the past few decades. In this paper, we employ the modified ICSS algorithm to detect structural change in the unconditional variance of output growth. One structural break exists in each of the four countries. We then use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications modeling output growth and its volatility with and without the break in volatility. The evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply in Canada, Japan, and the U.K. and disappears in the U.S., excess kurtosis vanishes in Canada, Japan, and the U.S. and drops substantially in the U.K., once we incorporate the break in the variance equation of output for the four countries. That is, the integrated GARCH (IGARCH) effect proves spurious and the GARCH model demonstrates misspecification, if researchers neglect a nonstationary unconditional variance.

Variation of genotype and prevalence of Noro virus in U.S. students in Mexico with Traveler's Diarrhea, summer of 2004 and 2005

Noro virus, a positive single stranded RNA virus has been identified as a major etiologic agent in food borne gastroenteritis and diarrheal diseases. The emergence of this organism as a major non-bacterial cause in such outbreaks is partly due to the improved diagnostic tools like Reverse Transcription Polymerase chain reaction (RTPCR) that enable its detection. Noro virus accounts for nearly 96% of non-bacterial gastroenteritis outbreaks in US (1). Travelers' Diarrhea (TD) has remained a constant public health risk in the developed nations for decades and bacteria like Entero toxigenic Escherichia coli, Entero aggregative Escherichia coli have been described as the main etiologic agents for TD (2-4). A possible viral contribution to TD has been discovered in two studies (5, 6). The current study was designed to determine the prevalence of Noro virus in a population of 107 US students with TD acquired in Mexico in 2005 and to compare the prevalence to the prevalence of Noro virus in a similar study done in 2004. This study involved the testing of clinical stool specimens from 107 subjects in 2005 for the presence of Noro virus using RTPCR. The prevalence of Noro virus in 2004 used for comparison to 2005 data was obtained from published data (5). All subjects were recruited as TD subjects in a randomized, double-blinded clinical trial comparing a standard three day dosing of Rifaximin with and without an anti motility drug Loperamide. The prevalence of Noro virus geno group I was similar in both years, but geno group II prevalence differed across the two years (p = 0.003). This study finding suggests that the prevalence of Noro virus geno groups varies with time even within a specific geographic location. This study emphasizes the need for further systematic epidemiologic studies to determine the molecular epidemiology and the prevalence patterns of different geno groups of this virus. These are essential to planning and implementation of public health measures to lessen the burden of TD due to Noro virus infection among US travelers. ^

Clinical relevance of polymorphic DNA copy number variation (CNV) in African American women with stage I-II breast cancer

Objectives. The chief goal of this study was to analyze copy number variation (CNV) in breast cancer tumors from 25 African American women with early stage breast cancer (BC) using molecular inversion probes (MIP) in order to: (1) compare the degree of CNV in tumors compared to normal lymph nodes, and (2) determine whether gains and/or losses of genes in specific chromosomes differ between pathologic subtypes of breast cancer defined by known prognostic markers, (3) determine whether gains/losses in CN are associated with known oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes, and (4) determine whether increased gains/losses in CN for specific chromosomes were associated with differences in breast cancer recurrence. ^ Methods. Twenty to 37 nanograms of DNA extracted from 25 formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tumor samples and matched normal lymph nodes were added to individual tubes. Oligonucleotide probes with recognition sequences at each terminus were hybridized with a genomic target sequence to form a circular structure. Probes are released from genomic DNA obtained from FFPE samples, and those which have been correctly "circularized" in the proper allele/nucleotide reaction combination are amplified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) primers. Amplicons were fluorescently labeled and the tag sequences released from the genome homology regions by treatment with uracil-N-glycosylase to cleave the probe at the site where uracils are present, and detected using a complementary tag array developed by Affymetrix. ^ Results. Analysis of CN gains and losses from tumors and normal tissues showed marked differences in tumors with numerous chromosomes affected. Similar changes were not observed in normal lymph nodes. When tumors were stratified into four groups based on expression or lack of expression of the estrogen receptor and HER2/neu, distinct patterns of CNV for different chromosomes were observed. Gains or losses in CN for specific chromosomes correlated with amplifications/deletions of particular oncogenes or tumor suppressor genes (i.e. such as found on chromosome 17) known to be associated with aggressive tumor phenotype and poor prognosis. There was a trend for increases in CN observed for chromosome 17 to correlate inversely with time to recurrence of BC (p=0.14 for trend). CNV was also observed for chromosomes 5, 8, 10, 11, and 16, which are known sites for several breast cancer susceptibility alleles. ^ Conclusions. This study is the first to validate the MIP technique, to correlate differences in gene expression with known prognostic tumor markers, and to correlate significant increases/decreases in CN with known tumor markers associated with prognosis. The results of this study may have far reaching public health implications towards identifying new high-risk groups based on genomic differences in CNP, both with respect to prognosis and response to therapy, and to eventually identify new therapeutic targets for prevention and treatment of this disease. ^

In-vivo diffusion tensor imaging of rat spinal cord with a phased array coil at 7T

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a non-invasive technique that offers excellent soft tissue contrast for characterizing soft tissue pathologies. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is an MRI technique that has shown to have the sensitivity to detect subtle pathology that is not evident on conventional MRI. ^ Rats are commonly used as animal models in characterizing the spinal cord pathologies including spinal cord injury (SCI), cancer, multiple sclerosis, etc. These pathologies could affect both thoracic and cervical regions and complete characterization of these pathologies using MRI requires DTI characterization in both the thoracic and cervical regions. Prior to the application of DTI for investigating the pathologic changes in the spinal cord, it is essential to establish DTI metrics in normal animals. ^ To date, in-vivo DTI studies of rat spinal cord have used implantable coils for high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and spin-echo pulse sequences for reduced geometric distortions. Implantable coils have several disadvantages including: (1) the invasive nature of implantation, (2) loss of SNR due to frequency shift with time in the longitudinal studies, and (3) difficulty in imaging the cervical region. While echo planar imaging (EPI) offers much shorter acquisition times compared to spin-echo imaging, EPI is very sensitive to static magnetic field inhomogeneities and the existing shimming techniques implemented on the MRI scanner do not perform well on spinal cord because of its geometry. ^ In this work, an integrated approach has been implemented for in-vivo DTI characterization of rat spinal cord in the thoracic and cervical regions. A three element phased array coil was developed for improved SNR and extended spatial coverage. A field-map shimming technique was developed for minimizing the geometric distortions in EPI images. Using these techniques, EPI based DWI images were acquired with optimized diffusion encoding scheme from 6 normal rats and the DTI-derived metrics were quantified. ^ The phantom studies indicated higher SNR and smaller bias in the estimated DTI metrics than the previous studies in the cervical region. In-vivo results indicated no statistical difference in the DTI characteristics of either gray matter or white matter between the thoracic and cervical regions. ^

Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

External assessment of myocardial glucose metabolism with $\sp{18}$F-2 -deoxy-2 -fluoro-D-glucose

Despite the popularity of the positron emitting glucose analog, ($\sp{18}$F) -2-deoxy-2-fluoro-D-glucose (2FDG), for the noninvasive "metabolic imaging" of organs with positron emission tomography (PET), the physiological basis for the tracer has not been tested, and the potential of 2FDG for the rapid kinetic analysis of altered glucose metabolism in the intact heart has not been fully exploited. We, therefore, developed a quantitative method to characterize metabolic changes of myocardial glucose metabolism noninvasively and with high temporal resolution.^ The first objective of the work was to provide direct evidence that the initial steps in the metabolism of 2FDG are the same as for glucose and that 2FDG is retained by the tissue in proportion to the rate of glucose utilization. The second objective was to characterize the kinetic changes in myocardial glucose transport and phosphorylation in response to changes in work load, competing substrates, acute ischemia and reperfusion, and the addition of insulin. To assess changes in myocardial glucose metabolism isolated working rat hearts were perfused with glucose and 2FDG. Tissue uptake of 2FDG and the input function were measured on-line by external detection. The steady state rate of 2FDG phosphorylation was determined by graphical analysis of 2FDG time-activity curves.^ The rate of 2FDG uptake was linear with time and the tracer was retained in its phosphorylated form. Tissue accumulation of 2FDG decreased within seconds with a reduction in work load, in the presence of competing substrates, and during reperfusion after global ischemia. Thus, most interventions known to alter glucose metabolism induced rapid parallel changes in 2FDG uptake. By contrast, insulin caused a significant increase in 2FDG accumulation only in hearts from fasted animals when perfused at a sub-physiological work load. The mechanism for this phenomenon is not known but may be related to the existence of two different glucose transporter systems and/or glycogen metabolism in the myocardial cell.^ It is concluded that (1) 2FDG traces glucose uptake and phosphorylation in the isolated working rat heart; and (2) early and transient kinetic changes in glucose metabolism can be monitored with high temporal resolution with 2FDG and a simple positron coincidence counting system. The new method has revealed transients of myocardial glucose metabolism, which would have remained unnoticed with conventional methods. These transients are not only important for the interpretation of glucose metabolic PET scans, but also provide insights into mechanisms of glucose transport and phosphorylation in heart muscle. ^

Isotope ratios of basalts from ODP Leg 115 holes (Table 1)

Strontium, neodymium, and lead isotope ratios are reported for 13 Leg 115 basalts as well as 3 basalts from Texaco drill hole SM-1 on the Mascarene Plateau. The 87Sr/86Sr ratios and eNd range from 0.70330 to 0.70439 and 5.5 to 7.4, respectively, although 87Sr/86Sr ratios higher than 0.70383 are found only in SM-1 basalts. The high 87Sr/86Sr values are thought to reflect seawater Sr in secondary phases, although all samples were strongly leached in HC1 before analysis. 206Pb/204Pb ratios range from 18.53 to 18.80, and sho high 207Pb/204Pb and 208Pb/204Pb ratios relative to 206Pb/204Pb ratios, typical of Indian Ocean mid-ocean ridge (MORB) and oceanic-island basalts (OIB). Isotopic compositions of Leg 115 basalts generally fall between fields for MORB and Reunion Island basalts, consistent with the conclusion drawn from geochronological studies that Deccan flood basalt volcanism, the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge, and the Mascarene Plateau are all products of the Reunion mantle plume. Isotopic compositions of magmas produced by this plume have varied systematically with time in the direction of less "depleted," less MORB-like isotopic signatures. This compositional change has been accompanied by a decrease in eruption rate. We interpret Deccan volcanism as the voluminous beginning of the plume. Reduced entrainment of asthenosphere following melting of the plume head resulted in less MORB-like isotope ratios in magmas and a decrease in eruptive activity with time.

Facies analysis on sediment core CRP-3 from the Ross Sea, Antarctica

Cape Roberts Project drill core 3 (CRP-3) was obtained from Roberts ridge, a sea-floor high located at 77°S, 12 km offshore from Cape Roberts in western McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. The recovered core is about 939 m long and comprises strata dated as being early Oligocene (possibly latest Eocene) in age, resting unconformably on ~116 m of basement rocks consisting of Palaeozoic Beacon Supergroup sediments. The core includes ten facies commonly occurring in five major associations that are repeated in particular sequences throughout the core and which are interpreted as representing different depositional environments through time. Depositional systems inferred to be represented in the succession include: outer shelf, inner shelf, nearshore to shoreface each under iceberg influence, deltaic and/or grounding-line fan, and ice proximal-ice marginal-subglacial (mass flow/rainout diamictite/subglacial till) singly or in combination. The record is taken to represent the initial talus/alluvial fan setting of a glaciated rift margin adjacent to the block-uplifted Transantarctic Mountains. Development of a deltaic succession upcore was probably associated with the formation of palaeo-Mackay valley with temperate glaciers in its headwaters. At that stage glaciation was intense enough to support glaciers ending in the sea elsewhere along the coast, but a local glacier was fluctuating down to the sea by the time the youngest part of CRP-3 was being deposited. Changes in palaeoenvironmental interpretations in this youngest part of the core are used to estimate relative glacial proximity to the drillsite through time. These inferred glacial fluctuations are compared with the global d180 and Mg/Ca curves to evaluate the potential of glacial fluctuations on Antarctica for influencing these records of global change. Although the comparisons are tentative at present, the records do have similarities, but there are also some differences that require further evaluation.

Model results of ocean physical field of the reference state and the targets in NetCDF format

In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

(Table 1) Paleomagnetic of ODP Leg 126 sites

A paleomagnetic study was made on the deep-marine sediments and volcanic rocks drilled by Ocean Drilling Program Leg 126 in the Izu-Bonin forearc region (Sites 787, 792, and 793). This study evaluates the sense and amount of the tectonic drift and rotation associated with the evolution of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Izu-Bonin Arc. Alternating-field and thermal demagnetization experiments show that most of the samples have stable remanence and are suitable for paleomagnetic studies. Paleomagnetic declinations were recovered by two methods of core orientation, one of which uses a secondary viscous magnetization vector of each specimen as an orientation standard, and the other of which is based on the data of downhole microresistivity measurement obtained by using a formation microscanner. Oligocene to early Miocene samples show 10° to 14° shallower paleolatitudes than those of the present. Middle Miocene to early Oligocene samples show progressive clockwise deflections (up to ~80°) in declination with time. These results suggest large northward drift and clockwise rotation of the Izu-Bonin forearc region since early Oligocene time. Considering previous paleomagnetic results from the other regions in the Philippine Sea, this motion may reflect large clockwise rotation of the whole Philippine Sea Plate over the past 40 m.y.

Age models and stabile isotope ratios from SO35 cores

Stable isotope measurements on the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white) have been carried out on a number of selected deep-seas sediment cores from the South Lau and Norlh Fiji Basins. The d18O-curves show good correlation with the inter-ocean oraphic correlation composite d18O-record of the standard reference section (Prell et al. 1986), which, in combination with the chronostratigraphic classifications of Herterich & Sarnthein (1984, modified) and Imbrie et al. 1984), allows a detailed dating of the sedimentary sequences. The deepest layers in core no. 119 (southern Lau Basin) could be assigned to Isotope Stage 24. Measurements made on bulk carbonate in two cores show a much higher glacial-interglacial amplitude, allowing the general identification of the conventional oxygen isotope stages. The d13C-values of the benthic foraminifer Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi show progressively lighter values northwards reflecting an increasing contribution of the isotopically lighter CO2 from the remineralisation of organic matter during the general northward movement of the deep water masses. Cyclicities in the sedimentation rates were observed in core nos. 117 and 119 (both southern Lau Basin) where the interglacials exhibit higher levels than the glacials. Calculated new or export paleoproductivity show that the glacials had higher productivity in the euphotic zone. From the oxygen isotope stratigraphy, the five ash layers in core nos. 117 and 119 could be dated as about 530 ka B.P. in Stage 14, 695 ka B.P. in Stage 18, 775 ka B.P. in Stage 21, 790 ka B.P. and 825 ka B.P. in Stage 22. Carbonate dissolution occurred during stages 5, 8 and 10 to 12.

Organic compounds in sediments and pore waters of ODP Sites 117-723 and 117-724

Total organic carbon, amino compounds, and carbohydrates were measured in pore waters and sediments of Pliocene to Pleistocene age from Sites 723 and 724 (ODP Leg 117) to evaluate (1) relationships between organic matter in the sediment and in the pore water, (2) the imprint of lithological variations on the abundance and contribution of organic substances, (3) degradation of amino compounds and carbohydrates with time and/or depth, and (4) the dependence of the ammonia concentration in the pore water on the degradation of amino compounds in the sediment. Total organic carbon concentrations (TOC) of the investigated sediment samples range from 0.9% to 8.7%, and total nitrogen concentrations (TN) from 0.1% to 0.5%. Up to 4.9% of the TOC is contributed by hydrolyzable amino acids (THAA) which are present in amounts between 1.1 and 21.3 µmol/g dry sediment and decrease strongly downhole. Hydrolyzable carbohydrates (THCHO) were found in concentrations from 1.3 to 6.6 ?mol/g sediment constituting between 0.1% and 2.0% of the TOC. Differences between the distribution patterns of monomers in Sites 723 and 724 indicate higher terrigenous influence for Site 724 and, furthermore, enhanced input of organic matter that is relatively resistant to microbial degradation. Lithologically distinct facies close to the Pliocene/Pleistocene boundary yield different organic matter compositions. Laminated horizons seem to correspond with enhanced amounts of biogenic siliceous material and minor microbiological degradation. Total amounts of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in pore waters vary between 11 and 131 mg/L. Concentrations of DOC as well as of dissolved amino compounds and carbohydrates appear to be related to microbial activity and/or associated redox zones and not so much to the abundance of organic matter in the sediments. Distributions of amino acids and monosaccharides in pore waters show a general enrichment in relatively stable components in comparison to those of the sediments. Nevertheless, the same trend appears between amino acids present in the sediments from Sites 723 and 724 as well as between amino acids in pore waters from these two sites, indicating a direct relation between the dissolved and the sedimentary organic fractions. Different ammonia concentrations in the pore waters of Sites 723 and 724 seem to be related to enhanced release of ammonia from degradation of amino compounds in Site 723.

Anelastic strain recovery and elastic properties of ODP Leg 123 oceanic basalt samples

A knowledge of rock stress is fundamental for improving our understanding of oceanic crustal mechanisms and lithospheric dynamic processes. However, direct measurements of stress in the deep oceans, and in particular stress magnitudes, have proved to be technically difficult. Anelastic strain recovery measurements were conducted on 15 basalt core samples from Sites 765 and 766 during Leg 123. Three sets of experiments were performed: anelastic strain recovery monitoring, dynamic elastic property measurements, and thermal azimuthal anisotropy observations. In addition, a range of other tests and observations were recorded to characterize each of the samples. One common feature of the experimental results and observations is that apparently no consistent orientation trend exists, either between the different measurements on each core sample or between the same sets of measurements on the various core samples. However, some evidence of correspondence between velocity anisotropy and anelastic strain recovery exists, but this is not consistent for all the core samples investigated. Thermal azimuthal anisotropy observations, although showing no conclusive correlations with the other results, were of significant interest in that they clearly exhibited anisotropic behavior. The apparent reproducibility of this behavior may point toward the possibility of rocks that retain a "memory" of their stress history, which could be exploited to derive stress orientations from archived core. Anelastic strain recovery is a relatively new technique. Because use of the method has extended to a wider range of rock types, the literature has begun to include examples of rocks that contracted with time. Strong circumstantial evidence exists to suggest that core-sample contractions result from the slow diffusion of pore fluids from a preexisting microcrack structure that permits the rock to deflate at a greater rate than the expansion caused by anelastic strain recovery. Both expansions and contractions of the Leg 123 cores were observed. The basalt cores have clearly been intersected by an abundance of preexisting fractures, some of which pass right through the samples, but many are intercepted or terminate within the rock matrix. Thus, the behavior of the core samples will be influenced not only by the properties of the rock matrix between the fractures, but also by how these macro- and micro-scale fractures mutually interact. The strain-recovery curves recorded during Leg 123 for each of the 15 basalt core samples may reflect the result of two competing time dependent processes: anelastic strain recovery and pore pressure recovery. Were these the only two processes to influence the gauge responses, then one might expect that given the additional information required, established theoretical models might be used to determine consistent stress orientations and reliable stress magnitudes. However, superimposed upon these competing processes is their respective interaction with the preexisting fractures that intersect each core. Evidence from our experiments and observations suggests that these fractures have a dominating influence on the characteristics of the recovery curves and that their effects are complex.