Problems in estimating the response functions of natural climatic recording systems [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High-resolution proxy records of climate, such as varves, ice cores, and tree-rings, provide the opportunity for reconstructing climate on a year-by-year basis. In order to do so it is necessary to approximate the complex nonlinear response function of the natural recording system using linear statistical models. Three problems with this approach were discussed, and possible solutions were suggested. Examples were given from a reconstruction of Santa Barbara precipitation based on tree-ring records from Santa Barbara County.

High-resolution natural recording systems: intercomparisons of the response to interannual climatic variability [abstract]

The goal of this work is to examine the properties of recording mechanisms which are common to continuously recording high-resolution natural systems in which climatic signals are imprinted and preserved as proxy records. These systems produce seasonal structures as an indirect response to climatic variability over the annual cycle. We compare the proxy records from four different high-resolution systems: the Quelccaya ice cap of the Peruvian Andes; composite tree ring growth from southern California and the southwestern United States; and the marine varve sedimentation systems in the Santa Barbara basin (off California, United States) and in the Gulf of California, Mexico. An important focus of this work is to indicate how the interannual climatic signal is recorded in a variety of different natural systems with vastly different recording mechanisms and widely separated in space. These high-resolution records are the products of natural processes which should be comparable, to some degree, to human-engineered systems developed to transmit and record physical quantities. We therefore present a simple analogy of a data recording system as a heuristic model to provide some unifying concepts with which we may better understand the formation of the records. This analogy assumes special significance when we consider that natural proxy records are the principal means to extend our knowledge of climatic variability into the past, beyond the limits of instrumentally recorded data.

Statistics of natural movements are reflected in motor errors.

Humans use their arms to engage in a wide variety of motor tasks during everyday life. However, little is known about the statistics of these natural arm movements. Studies of the sensory system have shown that the statistics of sensory inputs are key to determining sensory processing. We hypothesized that the statistics of natural everyday movements may, in a similar way, influence motor performance as measured in laboratory-based tasks. We developed a portable motion-tracking system that could be worn by subjects as they went about their daily routine outside of a laboratory setting. We found that the well-documented symmetry bias is reflected in the relative incidence of movements made during everyday tasks. Specifically, symmetric and antisymmetric movements are predominant at low frequencies, whereas only symmetric movements are predominant at high frequencies. Moreover, the statistics of natural movements, that is, their relative incidence, correlated with subjects' performance on a laboratory-based phase-tracking task. These results provide a link between natural movement statistics and motor performance and confirm that the symmetry bias documented in laboratory studies is a natural feature of human movement.

Economic valuation of natural resources: a handbook for coastal resource policymakers

Professionals who are responsible for coastal environmental and natural resource planning and management have a need to become conversant with new concepts designed to provide quantitative measures of the environmental benefits of natural resources. These amenities range from beaches to wetlands to clean water and other assets that normally are not bought and sold in everyday markets. At all levels of government — from federal agencies to townships and counties — decisionmakers are being asked to account for the costs and benefits of proposed actions. To non-specialists, the tools of professional economists are often poorly understood and sometimes inappropriate for the problem at hand. This handbook is intended to bridge this gap. The most widely used organizing tool for dealing with natural and environmental resource choices is benefit-cost analysis — it offers a convenient way to carefully identify and array, quantitatively if possible, the major costs, benefits, and consequences of a proposed policy or regulation. The major strength of benefit-cost analysis is not necessarily the predicted outcome, which depends upon assumptions and techniques, but the process itself, which forces an approach to decision-making that is based largely on rigorous and quantitative reasoning. However, a major shortfall of benefit-cost analysis has been the difficulty of quantifying both benefits and costs of actions that impact environmental assets not normally, nor even regularly, bought and sold in markets. Failure to account for these assets, to omit them from the benefit-cost equation, could seriously bias decisionmaking, often to the detriment of the environment. Economists and other social scientists have put a great deal of effort into addressing this shortcoming by developing techniques to quantify these non-market benefits. The major focus of this handbook is on introducing and illustrating concepts of environmental valuation, among them Travel Cost models and Contingent Valuation. These concepts, combined with advances in natural sciences that allow us to better understand how changes in the natural environment influence human behavior, aim to address some of the more serious shortcomings in the application of economic analysis to natural resource and environmental management and policy analysis. Because the handbook is intended for non-economists, it addresses basic concepts of economic value such as willingness-to-pay and other tools often used in decision making such as costeffectiveness analysis, economic impact analysis, and sustainable development. A number of regionally oriented case studies are included to illustrate the practical application of these concepts and techniques.

Assessment of natural resource conditions in and adjacent to Dry Tortugas National Park

This project characterized and assessed the condition of coastal water resources in the Dry Tortugas National Park (DRTO) located in the Florida Keys. The goal of the assessment was to: (1) identify the state of knowledge of natural resources that exist within the DRTO, (2) summarize the state of knowledge about natural and anthropogenic stressors and threats that affected these resources, and (3) describe strategies being implemented by DRTO managers to meet their resource management goals. The park, located in the Straits of Florida 113 km (70 miles) west of Key West, is relatively small (269 square kilometers) with seven small islands and extensive shallow water coral reefs. Significant natural resources within DRTO include coastal and oceanic waters, coral reefs, reef fisheries, seagrass beds, and sea turtle and bird nesting habitats. This report focuses on marine natural resources identified by DRTO resource managers and researchers as being vitally important to the Tortugas region and the wider South Florida ecosystem. Selected marine resources included physical resources (geology, oceanography, and water quality) and biological resources (coral reef and hardbottom benthic assemblages, seagrass and algal communities, reef fishes and macro invertebrates, and wildlife [sea turtles and sea-birds]). In the past few decades, some of these resources have deteriorated because of natural and anthropogenic factors that are local and global in scale. To meet mandated goals (Chapter 1), resource managers need information on: (1) the types and condition of natural and cultural resources that occur within the park and (2) the stressors and threats that can affect those resources. This report synthesizes and summarizes information on: (1) the status of marine natural resources occurring at DRTO; and (2) types of stressors and threats currently affecting those resources at the DRTO. Based on published information, the assessment suggests that marine resources at DRTO and its surrounding region are affected by several stressors, many of which act synergistically. Of the nine resource components assessed, one resource category – water quality – received an ecological condition ranking of "Good"; two components – the nonliving portion of coral reef and hardbottom and reef fishes – received a rating of "Caution"; and two components – the biotic components of coral reef and hardbottom substrates and sea turtles – received a rating of "Significant concern" (Table E-1). Seagrass and algal communities and seabirds were unrated for ecological condition because the available information was inadequate. The stressor category of tropical storms was the dominant and most prevalent stressor in the Tortugas region; it affected all of the resource components assessed in this report. Commercial and recreational fishing were also dominant stressors and affected 78% of the resource components assessed. The most stressed resource was the biotic component of coral reef and hardbottom resources, which was affected by 76% of the stressors. Water quality was the least affected; it was negatively affected by 12% of stressors. The systematic assessment of marine natural resources and stressors in the Tortugas region pointed to several gaps in the information. For example, of the nine marine resource components reviewed in this report, the living component of coral reefs and hardbottom resources had the best rated information with 25% of stressor categories rated "Good" for information richness. In contrast, the there was a paucity of information for seagrass and algal communities and sea birds resource components.