Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Laboratorial atopy markers in children with human immunodeficiency virus

Changes in immune system functions are one of the most important consequences of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Studies have reported a higher prevalence of disease mediated by immunological hypersensitivity mechanisms in HIV-positive patients. This study aims to observe how immunological changes in HIV-infected children interfere in atopy determinants. Fifty-seven HIV-positive children were studied between June 2004-August 2005 to evaluate the possible modifications in atopy diagnosis from prick test environmental allergen reactivity. Patients were subjected to two evaluations: on both occasions, atopic and non-atopic groups were correlated with immunological (CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocyte concentrations and serum levels of IgA, IgM, IgG and IgE) and viral parameters (HIV viral load). The percent atopy was 20.05 in the first and 29.82 in the second evaluation and atopy was diagnosed in patients without immunosuppression or with moderate immunosuppression. Six patients changed from a negative to a positive atopy profile. One patient with a decreased CD4+ T lymphocyte concentration failed to demonstrate prick test positivity between evaluations. Multivariate analysis showed that the variables associated with atopy diagnosis included a personal history of allergic diseases as well as elevated IgE for age and elevated IgE levels. Atopy development in HIV-infected children seems to be modulated by genetic and environmental factors as well as immunological condition.

Coronary vasomotor control in obesity and morbid obesity: contrasting flow responses with endocannabinoids, leptin, and inflammation.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate abnormalities in coronary circulatory function in 2 different disease entities of obese (OB) and morbidly obese (MOB) individuals and to evaluate whether these would differ in severity with different profiles of endocannabinoids, leptin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) plasma levels. BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that altered plasma levels of endocannabinoids, leptin, and CRP may affect coronary circulatory function in OB and MOB. METHODS: Myocardial blood flow (MBF) responses to cold pressor test from rest and during pharmacologically induced hyperemia were measured with N-13 ammonia positron emission tomography/computed tomography. Study participants (n = 111) were divided into 4 groups based on their body mass index (BMI) (kg/m(2)): 1) control group (BMI: 20 to 24.9, n = 30); 2) overweight group (BMI: 25 to 29.9, n = 31), 3) OB group (BMI: 30 to 39.9, n = 25); and 4) MOB group (BMI ≥40, n = 25). RESULTS: The cold pressor test-induced change in endothelium-related MBF response (ΔMBF) progressively declined in overweight and OB groups when compared with the control group [median: 0.19 (interquartile range [IQR] 0.08, 0.27) and 0.11 (0.03, 0.17) vs. 0.27 (0.23, 0.38) ml/g/min; p ≤ 0.01, respectively], whereas it did not differ significantly between OB and MOB groups [median: 0.11 (IQR: 0.03, 0.17) and 0.09 (-0.01, 0.19) ml/g/min; p = 0.93]. Compared with control subjects, hyperemic MBF subjects comparably declined in the overweight, OB, and MOB groups [median: 2.40 (IQR 1.92, 2.63) vs. 1.94 (1.65, 2.30), 2.05 (1.67, 2.38), and 2.14 (1.78, 2.76) ml/g/min; p ≤ 0.05, respectively]. In OB individuals, ΔMBF was inversely correlated with increase in endocannabinoid anandamide (r = -0.45, p = 0.044), but not with leptin (r = -0.02, p = 0.946) or with CRP (r = -0.33, p = 0.168). Conversely, there was a significant and positive correlation among ΔMBF and elevated leptin (r = 0.43, p = 0.031) and CRP (r = 0.55, p = 0.006), respectively, in MOB individuals that was not observed for endocannabinoid anandamide (r = 0.07, p = 0.740). CONCLUSIONS: Contrasting associations of altered coronary endothelial function with increases in endocannabinoid anandamide, leptin, and CRP plasma levels identify and characterize OB and MOB as different disease entities affecting coronary circulatory function.

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

Negative control of quorum sensing by RpoN (sigma54) in Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1.

In Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1, the expression of several virulence factors such as elastase, rhamnolipids, and hydrogen cyanide depends on quorum-sensing regulation, which involves the lasRI and rhlRI systems controlled by N-(3-oxododecanoyl)-L-homoserine lactone and N-butyryl-L-homoserine lactone, respectively, as signal molecules. In rpoN mutants lacking the transcription factor sigma(54), the expression of the lasR and lasI genes was elevated at low cell densities, whereas expression of the rhlR and rhlI genes was markedly enhanced throughout growth by comparison with the wild type and the complemented mutant strains. As a consequence, the rpoN mutants had elevated levels of both signal molecules and overexpressed the biosynthetic genes for elastase, rhamnolipids, and hydrogen cyanide. The quorum-sensing regulatory protein QscR was not involved in the negative control exerted by RpoN. By contrast, in an rpoN mutant, the expression of the gacA global regulatory gene was significantly increased during the entire growth cycle, whereas another global regulatory gene, vfr, was downregulated at high cell densities. In conclusion, it appears that GacA levels play an important role, probably indirectly, in the RpoN-dependent modulation of the quorum-sensing machinery of P. aeruginosa.

An indirect immunofluorescence antibody test employing whole eggs as the antigen for the diagnosis of abdominal angiostrongyliasis

Abdominal angiostrongyliasis is a potentially fatal zoonotic disease with a broad geographical distribution throughout Central and South America. This study assessed the performance of Angiostrongylus costaricensis eggs as the antigen in an indirect immunofluorescence assay for the determination of parasite-specific IgG and IgG1 antibodies. For prevalence studies, an IgG antibody titre > 16 was identified as the diagnostic threshold with the best performance, providing 93.7% sensitivity and 84.6% specificity. Cross reactivity was evaluated with 65 additional samples from patients with other known parasitic infections. Cross reactivity was observed only in samples from individuals infected with Strongyloides stercoralis. For clinical diagnosis, we recommend the determination of IgG only as a screening test. IgG1 determination may be used to increase the specificity of the results for patients with a positive screening test.