Simple procedures to assess and compare the ecological niche of species

Hutchinson's (1957; Cold Spring Harbour Symp Quant Biol 22:415-427) niche concept is being used increasingly in the context of global change, and is currently applied to many ecological issues including climate change, exotic species invasion and management of endangered species. For both the marine and terrestrial realms, there is a growing need to assess the breadth of the niches of individual species and to make comparisons among them to forecast the species' capabilities to adapt to global change. In this paper, we describe simple non-parametric multivariate procedures derived from a method originally used in climatology to (1) evaluate the breadth of the ecological niche of a species and (2) examine whether the niches are significantly separated. We first applied the statistical procedures to a simple fictive example of 3 species separated by 2 environmental factors in order to describe the technique. We then used it to quantify and compare the ecological niche of 2 key-structural marine zooplankton copepod species, Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus, in the northern part of the North Atlantic Ocean using 3 environmental factors. The test demonstrates that the niches of both species are significantly separated and that the coldwater species has a niche larger than that of its warmer-water congeneric species.

Multi-decadal oceanic ecological datasets and their application in marine policy and management

Long-term biological time-series in the oceans are relatively rare. Using the two longest of these we show how the information value of such ecological time-series increases through space and time in terms of their potential policy value. We also explore the co-evolution of these oceanic biological time-series with changing marine management drivers. Lessons learnt from reviewing these sequences of observations provide valuable context for the continuation of existing time-series and perspective for the initiation of new time-series in response to rapid global change. Concluding sections call for a more integrated approach to marine observation systems and highlight the future role of ocean observations in adaptive marine management.

Physiology, ecological niches and species distribution

Although many studies have debated the theoretical links between physiology, ecological niches and species distribution, few studies have provided evidence for a tight empirical coupling between these concepts at a macroecological scale. We used an ecophysiological model to assess the fundamental niche of a key-structural marine species. We found a close relationship between its fundamental and realized niche. The relationship remains constant at both biogeographical and decadal scales, showing that changes in environmental forcing propagate from the physiological to the macroecological level. A substantial shift in the spatial distribution is detected in the North Atlantic and projections of range shift using IPCC scenarios suggest a poleward movement of the species of one degree of latitude per decade for the 21st century. The shift in the spatial distribution of this species reveals a pronounced alteration of polar pelagic ecosystems with likely implications for lower and upper trophic levels and some biogeochemical cycles.

Recovery or decline of the Northwestern Black Sea: A societal choice revealed by socio-ecological modelling

During recent decades anthropogenic activities have dramatically impacted the Black Sea ecosystem. High levels of riverine nutrient input during the 1970s and 1980s caused eutrophic conditions including intense algal blooms resulting in hypoxia and the subsequent collapse of benthic habitats on the northwestern shelf. Intense fishing pressure also depleted stocks of many apex predators, contributing to an increase in planktivorous fish that are now the focus of fishing efforts. Additionally, the Black Sea's ecosystem changed even further with the introduction of exotic species. Economic collapse of the surrounding socialist republics in the early 1990s resulted in decreased nutrient loading which has allowed the Black Sea ecosystem to start to recover, but under rapidly changing economic and political conditions, future recovery is uncertain. In this study we use a multidisciplinary approach to integrate information from socio-economic and ecological systems to model the effects of future development scenarios on the marine environment of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The Driver–Pressure–State-Impact-Response framework was used to construct conceptual models, explicitly mapping impacts of socio-economic Drivers on the marine ecosystem. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs), a stochastic modelling technique, were used to quantify these causal relationships, operationalise models and assess the effects of alternative development paths on the Black Sea ecosystem. BBNs use probabilistic dependencies as a common metric, allowing the integration of quantitative and qualitative information. Under the Baseline Scenario, recovery of the Black Sea appears tenuous as the exploitation of environmental resources (agriculture, fishing and shipping) increases with continued economic development of post-Soviet countries. This results in the loss of wetlands through drainage and reclamation. Water transparency decreases as phytoplankton bloom and this deterioration in water quality leads to the degradation of coastal plant communities (Cystoseira, seagrass) and also Phyllophora habitat on the shelf. Decomposition of benthic plants results in hypoxia killing flora and fauna associated with these habitats. Ecological pressure from these factors along with constant levels of fishing activity results in target stocks remaining depleted. Of the four Alternative Scenarios, two show improvements on the Baseline ecosystem condition, with improved waste water treatment and reduced fishing pressure, while the other two show a worsening, due to increased natural resource exploitation leading to rapid reversal of any recent ecosystem recovery. From this we conclude that variations in economic policy have significant consequences for the health of the Black Sea, and ecosystem recovery is directly linked to social–economic choices.

Identifying four phytoplankton functional types from space: An ecological approach

Deriving maps of phytoplankton taxa based on remote sensing data using bio-optical properties of phytoplankton alone is challenging. A more holistic approach was developed using artificial neural networks, incorporating ecological and geographical knowledge together with ocean color, bio-optical characteristics, and remotely sensed physical parameters. Results show that the combined remote sensing approach could discriminate four major phytoplankton functional types (diatoms, dinoflagellates, coccolithophores, and silicoflagellates) with an accuracy of more than 70%. Models indicate that the most important information for phytoplankton functional type discrimination is spatio-temporal information and sea surface temperature. This approach can supply data for large-scale maps of predicted phytoplankton functional types, and an example is shown.

Ecological Investigations with the Continuous Plankton Recorder: The Phytoplankton in the Southern North Sea. 1932-37.

1. The changes in the composition and distribution of the plankton of the southern North Sea have been investigated month by month, from June 1932 to December 1937; the present report deals with the phytoplankton. The survey was carried out by the Continuous Plankton Recorder, towed at a standard depth of 10 metres, by ships on regular steamship lines across the North Sea from Hull towards the Skagerrak, to Bremen and to Rotterdam, and later between London and Esbjerg. 2. The material and methods are described, together with a discussion on the validity of this type of survey and some comparison of its results with those obtained by other methods (pp. 76-86). 3. Particular attention has been paid to Rhizosolenia styliformis (pp. 92- 107), Biddulphia sinensis (pp. 108-115), Phaeocystis (pp. 149-153), and the Dinoflagellates (pp. 134-149); of these the first three are known to be of particular importance in relation to the herring fisheries. More generalised data are available for the principal diatoms other than R. styliformis and B. sinensis (pp. 116-134). 4. The main part of the work is an ecological study of the phytoplankton changes in time and space over the 5½ years. Each year is marked by some distinct variations in the abundance and the times of increase, maximum numbers and decline as recorded in the different forms. These variations in the annual cycles are compared on the different lines by a series of graphs arranged against a time scale of months, a set for each year being placed side by side (Plates I-XXI). More detailed studies by more frequent records were made in the autumns of 1934, 1935, 1936 and 1937 (cf. Figs. 3 and 4). The changes in spatial distribution are shown by a series of monthly maps arranged in a similar manner for each year (Plates XXII-LXIV). These intensive studies of the changes in time and space are also intended to form the basis for correlations with other features in the general ecology of the area (e. g. the zooplankton, hydrology, meteorology and fisheries) to be made in later publications. 5. Whilst each form has shown its own peculiar features, a trend towards a general increase in the phytoplankton as a whole has been observed during the period, although the years 1934 and 1936 have in some respects shown deviations and regressive features, and not all organisms have revealed the same trend. The possible relation of this gradual trend to other events observed in recent years in these and neighbouring waters is discussed (pp. 162-167). 6. The application of these results to the study of patchiness (pp. 154-158), inter-relationships in the plankton (pp. 159-160) and to water movements (pp. 160-162) is briefly discussed.

Ecological Investigations with the Continuous Plankton Recorder: The Copepoda of the Southern North Sea. 1932-37.

I. The monthly changes in the distribution and abundance of the Copepoda in the southern North Sea have been investigated from June 1932 to December 1937 by using the Continuous Plankton Recorder. This was towed at a standard depth of 10 metres by ships sailing on regular lines from Hull to Rotterdam, to Bremen and towards the Skagerrak, and later from London to Esbjerg. 2. The methods are described and those limitations which apply more particularly to the Copepoda are discussed (pp. 175 to 186 and 198 to 203). 3. The first part of the report deals with the Copepoda as a whole, i.e. the total population. The difference between the summer and winter distributions is stressed. The variations in numbers from year to year are found to be considerable and it is suggested that they are sufficiently large to be reflected in the success or failure of the broods of those fish which are at some period of their development dependent upon the Copepoda for food. 4. The second part deals with the data concerning the constituent species or groups of allied species ; a list of these is given on p. 197. 5. The group Paracalanus + Pseudocalanus was by far the most abundant and together with the genera Temora and Acartia was found to be responsible for most of the fluctuations in the population (pp. 205 to 208). 6. The distributions, seasonal and spatial, of the other common forms are described, with the exception of that of Oalantts finmarchicus which is to be the subject of a later report. 7. The recorder results are compared with the findings of the International Council survey from 1902 to 1908; some marked disagreements are discussed (pp. 227 to 232). 8. The appearance of the northern forms Oandacia armata and Metridia lucens during the winters of 1932-33, 1933-34 and 1937 are recorded (pp. 222 to 223) 9. A summarised account of the main seasonal changes in the area is given (pp. 232 to 234) and followed by a brief comparison of the 5½ years investigated.