900 resultados para Early Warning System


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The eruption of Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 had substantial effects on global climate and led to the ‘Year Without a Summer’ of 1816 in Europe and North America. Although a tragic event — tens of thousands of people lost their lives — the eruption also was an ‘experiment of nature’ from which science has learned until today. The aim of this study is to summarize our current understanding of the Tambora eruption and its effects on climate as expressed in early instrumental observations, climate proxies and geological evidence, climate reconstructions, and model simulations. Progress has been made with respect to our understanding of the eruption process and estimated amount of SO2 injected into the atmosphere, although large uncertainties still exist with respect to altitude and hemispheric distribution of Tambora aerosols. With respect to climate effects, the global and Northern Hemispheric cooling are well constrained by proxies whereas there is no strong signal in Southern Hemisphere proxies. Newly recovered early instrumental information for Western Europe and parts of North America, regions with particularly strong climate effects, allow Tambora’s effect on the weather systems to be addressed. Climate models respond to prescribed Tambora-like forcing with a strengthening of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, global cooling and a slowdown of the water cycle, weakening of the summer monsoon circulations, a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, and a decrease of atmospheric CO₂. Combining observations, climate proxies, and model simulations for the case of Tambora, a better understanding of climate processes has emerged.

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The chronostratigraphy, the calcareous nannofossil biochronology, and the biostratigraphy of the Miocene and Pliocene sediments retrieved during Leg 115 in the equatorial western Indian Ocean are presented and discussed. Most of the zonal boundaries of the standard 1971 zonation of Martini and the 1973 zonation of Bukry are easily recognized in these low-latitude sediments. We also comment on the secondary events that are proposed in the literature to improve the biostratigraphic resolution provided by the standard zonations. The study of calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy and taphonomy of sequences from the Northern Mascarene Plateau area, which was drilled to investigate the Neogene history of carbonate flux and dissolution, indicate that the accumulation of carbonates in this area results from a complex interplay among carbonate bioproductivity, carbonate removal by chemical dissolution and mechanical erosion, and carbonate addition by mass and current transport. In spite of these drawbacks, major changes and trends in carbonate accumulation can be recognized, most of which, if not all, correlate with major steps in the evolution of the Neogene climatic system.

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The early Eocene represents a time of major changes in the global carbon cycle and fluctuations in global temperatures on both short- and long-time scales. These perturbations of the ocean-atmosphere system have been linked to orbital forcing and changes in net organic carbon burial, but accurate age models are required to disentangle the various forcing mechanisms and assess causal relationships. Discrepancies between the employed astrochronological and radioisotopic dating techniques prevent the construction of a robust time frame between ~49 and ~54 Ma. Here we present an astronomically tuned age model for this critical time period based on a new high-resolution benthic d13C record of ODP Site 1263, SE Atlantic. First, we assess three possible tuning options to the stable long-eccentricity cycle (405-kyr), starting from Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2, ~54 Ma). Next we compare our record to the existing bulk carbonate d13C record from the equatorial Atlantic (Demerara Rise, ODP Site 1258) to evaluate our three initial age models and compare them with alternative age models previously established for this site. Finally, we refine our preferred age model by expanding our tuning to the 100-kyr eccentricity cycle of the La2010d solution. This solution appears to accurately reflect the long- and short-term eccentricity-related patterns in our benthic d13C record of ODP Site 1263 back to at least 52 Ma and possibly to 54 Ma. Our time scale not only aims to provide a new detailed age model for this period, but it may also serve to enhance our understanding of the response of the climate system to orbital forcing during this super greenhouse period as well as trends in its background state.

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Knowledge of the evolution of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is key to understanding the past evolution of the climatic system. We developed a new rock-magnetic method to determine the constituent magnetic minerals of sediments and report on the evolution of NADW during 2.2-2.9 Ma. We measured isothermal remanence acquisition curves of North Atlantic deep-sea sediments drilled at the Gardar Drift and decomposed the first derivatives of these curves into high-coercivity and low-coercivity components. Residuals of the decomposition were sufficiently small throughout the study interval, confirming that the Gardar Drift sediments represent a mixing of the two end-members. Fractional changes of the high-coercivity component represent variation of the Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water, a branch of NADW formed at the Nordic Seas. The high-coercivity component increased significantly during an interglacial period just after ~2.68 Ma, which suggests that NADW formation in the Nordic Seas abruptly intensified at this time.

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Federal Highway Administration, Washington, D.C.

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"Mit einer Kupfertafel" --T.p

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Includes bibliographical references and indexes.

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The purpose of this study is to create a petroleum system model and to assess whether or not the La Luna Formation has potential for unconventional exploration and production in the Middle Magdalena Valley Basin (MMVB), Colombia. Today, the Magdalena River valley is an intermontane valley located between the Central and Eastern Cordillera of Colombia. The underlying basin, however, represents a major regional sedimentary basin that received deposits from the Triassic through the Cenozoic. In recent years Colombia has been of great exploration interest because of its potentially vast hydrocarbon resources, existing petroleum infrastructure, and skilled workforce. Since the early 1900s when the MMVB began producing, it has led to discoveries of 1.9 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 2.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of gas (Willatt et al., 2012). Colombia is already the third largest producer of oil in South America, and there is good potential for additional unconventional exploration and production in the Cretaceous source rocks (Willatt et al., 2012). Garcia Gonzalez et al. (2009) estimate the potential remaining hydrocarbons in the La Luna Formation in the MMVB to be between 1.15 and 10.33 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE; P90 and P10 respectively), with 2.02 BBOE cumulative production to date. Throughout the 1900s and early 2000s, Cenozoic continental and transitional clastic reservoirs were the primary exploration interest in the MMVB (Dickey, 1992). The Cretaceous source rocks, such as the La Luna Formation, are now the target for unconventional exploration and production. In the MMVB, the La Luna formation is characterized by relatively high total organic carbon (TOC) values, moderate maturity, and adequate thickness and depth (Veigal and Dzelalijal, 2014). The La Luna Formation is composed of Cenomanian-Santonian aged shales, marls, and limestones (Veigal and Dzelalijal, 2014). In addition to the in-situ hydrocarbons, the fractured limestones in the La Luna formation act as secondary reservoirs for light oil from other formations (Veigal and Dzelalijal, 2014). Thus the system can be considered more of a hybrid play, rather than a pure unconventional play. The Cretaceous source rocks of the MMVB exhibit excellent potential for unconventional exploration and production. Due to the complex structural nature of the MMVB, an understanding of the distribution of rocks and variations in rock qualities is essential for reducing risk in this play.

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A retrospective review was undertaken in 744 patients who were dose-individualized with gentamicin once daily to evaluate a change in gentamicin clearance as a potential predictor of nephrotoxicity. The definition of nephrotoxicity was chosen to be a change in creatinine clearance greater than 20%. Similarly, a change in gentamicin clearance of greater than 20% was also considered a possible index of nephrotoxicity. Four criteria were developed to assess the usefulness of gentamicin clearance as a predictor of nephrotoxicity. Following the application of the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 132 patients were available for the analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were assessed for each of the criteria. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were produced to determine if an optimum value in the change of gentamicin clearance could be found to maximize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of nephrotoxicity based on a decrease in creatinine clearance by 20% or more was 3.8%. Women were overrepresented in the nephrotoxic group [71.4% versus 40.1% (P = 0.0025)]. Patients with nephrotoxicity had statistically longer treatment periods, increased cumulative dose, and more dosing predictions (P < 0.05 in each case). The sensitivity of the criteria ranged from 43 to 46%, and specificity ranged from 93 to 99%. The positive and negative predictive values ranged from 63 to 94% and 86 to 89%, respectively. In those patients in whom nephrotoxicity was predicted from a change in gentamicin clearance, this change occurred on average 3 days before the change in creatinine clearance (P < 0.05). A change in gentamicin clearance to predict nephrotoxicity may be a useful addition to current monitoring methods, although it is not the complete answer.

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Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an important pathogen in immunocompromised patients and secretes a diverse set of virulence factors that aid colonization and influence host cell defenses. An important early step in the establishment of infection is the production of type III-secreted effectors translocated into host cells by the bacteria. We used cDNA microarrays to compare the transcriptomic response of lung epithelial cells to P. aeruginosa mutants defective in type IV pili, the type III secretion apparatus, or in the production of specific type III-secreted effectors. Of the 18,000 cDNA clones analyzed, 55 were induced or repressed after 4 It of infection and could be classified into four different expression patterns. These include (i) host genes that are induced or repressed in a type III secretion-independent manner (32 clones), (ii) host genes induced specifically by ExoU (20 clones), and (iii) host genes induced in an ExoU-independent but type III secretion dependent manner (3 clones). In particular, ExoU was essential for the expression of immediate-early response genes, including the transcription factor c-Fos. ExoU-dependent gene expression was mediated in part by early and transient activation of the AN transcription factor complex. In conclusion, the present study provides a detailed insight into the response of epithelial cells to infection and indicates the significant role played by the type III virulence mechanism in the initial host response.

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For most complex emergent technologies, product-market success depends on efficient linkages between changing lead innovators within the R&D process. In this paper, our unit of analysis is a complex high technology product and the system of alliance linkages formed to progress a product through R&D milestones. We present a model and evidence for advancing our understanding of how achieving early-to-market returns depends on systemic absorptive capacity. This systemic absorptive capacity is the cumulative efficiency in the use of absorptive capacity to link changing lead innovators across successive milestones in R&D product development. We advance propositions of how systemic absorptive capacity can explain performance differences between rival product development systems competing for early-to-market returns with similar products through accelerating speed to market, cost and quality advantages. These explanations are contrasted with the conclusions of previous studies that have focused on absorptive capacity of single firms or single alliances in RD.