871 resultados para Dynamic Model Averaging
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This paper analyses an overlapping generations model with absolute bequest motive. It is shown that the widely accepted criterion to verify dynamic efficiency does not apply to this case. In our model the social planner maximizes welfare by choosing a capital stock larger than the golden role and a real rate of interest smaller than the rate of growth of the economy.
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It is well documented venture capital‟s positive impact on creation and development of highly successful innovative companies worldwide. Venture capital not only provides funding to startups and SMEs (small and medium enterprises) that usually have financing gap, especially in emerging markets, but also brings a whole package of valuable resources that reduces companies‟ mortality rates. Using quantitative data obtained from an empirical survey as background, this paper discusses the role of venture capital in the success of innovative startups and SMEs, and it examines if, and to what extent, venture capitalists are supporting the entrepreneurial activity in Brazil. I focused on the portfolio companies analyzes and confirmed the hypothesis that the venture capital industry has been supporting entrepreneurship in Brazil. Second, I identified an important evidence of a venture capital‟s positive impact on economic activity, especially the capital market. Third, it became clear that venture capital-back entrepreneurship is highly concentrated in the Southeast region. And fourth, I identified that private equity expansion is also playing a key role on that dynamics. As consequence, I conclude that the venture capital (and private equity) industry has been very important to build an enormously dynamic and strong local entrepreneurial economy. Its committed capital grew 50% per year between 2005 and 2008 to achieve US$27 billion, which invested US$ 11 billion, which employs 1,400 professionals (75% with post-graduate degrees) and maintains 482 portfolio companies, mostly SMEs. In addition, venture capital-backed companies represented one third of the IPOs that occurred in Brazil between 2004 and 2008 (approximately US$15 billion).
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We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.
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My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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This paper presents a consistent and concise analysis of the free and forced vibration of a mass supported by a parallel combination of a spring and an elastically supported damper (a Zener model). The results are presented in a compact form and the physical behaviour of the system is emphasised. This system is very similar to the conventional single-degree-of freedom system (sdof)-(Voigt model), but the dynamics can be quite different depending on the system parameters. The usefulness of the additional spring in series with the damper is investigated, and optimum damping values for the system subject to different types of excitation are determined and compared.There are three roots to the characteristic equation for the Zener model; two are complex conjugates and the third is purely real. It is shown that it is not possible to achieve critical damping of the complex roots unless the additional stiffness is at least eight times that of the main spring. For a harmonically excited system, there are some possible advantages in using the additional spring when the transmitted force to the base is of interest, but when the displacement response of the system is of interest then the benefits are marginal. It is shown that the additional spring affords no advantages when the system is excited by white noise. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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In this paper, the dynamic behaviour of the "click" mechanism is analysed. A more accurate model is used than in the past, in which the limits of movement due to the geometry of the flight mechanism are imposed. Moreover, the effects of different damping models are investigated. In previous work, the damping model was assumed to be of the linear viscous type for simplicity, but it is likely that the damping due to drag forces is nonlinear. Accordingly, a model of damping in which the damping force is proportional to the square of the velocity is used, and the results are compared with the simpler model of linear viscous damping. Because of the complexity of the model an analytical approach is not possible so the problem has been cast in terms of non-dimensional variables and solved numerically. The peak kinetic energy of the wing root per energy input in one cycle is chosen to study the effectiveness of the "click" mechanism compared with a linear resonant mechanism. It is shown that, the "click" mechanism has distinct advantages when it is driven below its resonant frequency. When the damping is quadratic, there are some further advantages compared to when the damping is linear and viscous, provided that the amplitude of the excitation force is large enough to avoid the erratic behaviour of the mechanism that occurs for small forces. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A direct version of the boundary element method (BEM) is developed to model the stationary dynamic response of reinforced plate structures, such as reinforced panels in buildings, automobiles, and airplanes. The dynamic stationary fundamental solutions of thin plates and plane stress state are used to transform the governing partial differential equations into boundary integral equations (BIEs). Two sets of uncoupled BIEs are formulated, respectively, for the in-plane state ( membrane) and for the out-of-plane state ( bending). These uncoupled systems are joined to formamacro-element, in which membrane and bending effects are present. The association of these macro-elements is able to simulate thin-walled structures, including reinforced plate structures. In the present formulation, the BIE is discretized by continuous and/or discontinuous linear elements. Four displacement integral equations are written for every boundary node. Modal data, that is, natural frequencies and the corresponding mode shapes of reinforced plates, are obtained from information contained in the frequency response functions (FRFs). A specific example is presented to illustrate the versatility of the proposed methodology. Different configurations of the reinforcements are used to simulate simply supported and clamped boundary conditions for the plate structures. The procedure is validated by comparison with results determined by the finite element method (FEM).
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Meconium (MEC) is a potent inactivator of pulmonary surfactant. The authors studied the effects of polyethylene glycol addition to the exogenous surfactant over the lung mechanics and volumes. Human meconium was administrated to newborn rabbits. Animals were ventilated for 20 minutes and dynamic compliance, ventilatory pressure, and tidal volume were recorded. Animals were randomized into 3 study groups: MEC group (without surfactant therapy); S100 group (100 mg/kg surfactant); and PEG group (100 mg/kg porcine surfactant plus 5% PEG). After ventilation, a pulmonary pressure-volume curve was built. Histological analysis was carried out to calculate the mean alveolar size (Lm) and the distortion index (DI). Both groups treated with surfactant showed higher values of dynamic pulmonary compliance and lower ventilatory pressure, compared with the MEC group (P .05). S100 group had a larger maximum lung volume, V30, compared with the MEC group (P .05). Lm and DI values were smaller in the groups treated with surfactant than in the MEC group (P .05). No differences were observed between the S100 and PEG groups. Animals treated with surfactant showed significant improvement in pulmonary function as compared to nontreated animals. PEG added to exogenous surfactant did not improve lung mechanics or volumes.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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The behavior of the transition pion form factor for processes gamma (*)gamma --> pi(0) and gamma (*)gamma (*) --> pi(0) at large values of space-like photon momenta is estimated within the nonlocal covariant quark-pion model. It is shown that, in general, the coefficient of the leading asymptotic term depends dynamically on the ratio of the constituent quark mass and the average virtuality of quarks in the vacuum and kinematically on the ratio of photon virtualities. The kinematic dependence of the transition form factor allows us to obtain the relation between the pion light-cone distribution amplitude and the quark-pion vertex function. The dynamic dependence indicates that the transition form factor gamma (*)gamma -->, pi(0) at high momentum transfers is very sensitive to the nonlocality size of nonperturbative fluctuations in the QCD vacuum. (C) 2000 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.
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The covariant quark model of the pion based on the effective nonlocal quark-hadron Lagrangian involving nonlocality induced by instanton fluctuations of the QCD vacuum is reviewed. Explicit gauge invariant formalism allows us to construct the conserved vector and axial currents and to demonstrate their consistency with the Ward-Takahashi identities and low-energy theorems. The spontaneous breaking of chiral symmetry results in the dynamic quark mass and the vertex of the quark-pion interaction, both momentum-dependent. The parameters of the instanton vacuum, the average size of the instantons, and the effective quark mass are expressed in terms of the vacuum expectation values of the lowest dimension quark-gluon operators and low-energy pion observables. The transition pion form factor for the processes gamma*gamma --> pi (0) and gamma*gamma* --> pi (0) is analyzed in detail. The kinematic dependence of the transition form factor at high momentum transfers allows one to determine the relationship between the light-cone amplitude of the quark distribution in the pion and the quark-pion vertex function. Its dynamic dependence implies that the transition form factor gamma*gamma --> pi (0) at high momentum transfers is acutely sensitive to the size of the nonlocality of nonperturbative fluctuations in the QCD vacuum. In the leading twist, the distribution amplitude and the distribution function of the valence quarks in the pion are calculated at a low normalization point of the order of the inverse average instanton size rho (-1)(c). The QCD results are evolved to higher momentum transfers and are in reasonable agreement with available experimental data on the pion structure.
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A non-twist Hamiltonian system perturbed by two waves with particular wave numbers can present Robust Tori, barriers created by the vanishing of the perturbing Hamiltonian at some defined positions. When Robust Tori exist, any trajectory in phase space passing close to them is blocked by emergent invariant curves that prevent the chaotic transport. We analyze the breaking up of the RT as well the transport dependence on the wave numbers and on the wave amplitudes. Moreover, we report the chaotic web formation in the phase space and how this pattern influences the transport.