A community-based assessment of the spatiotemporal distribution of influenza in a U.S.-Mexico border county during the spring 2009 novel H1N1 swine-origin influenza A pandemic

This study retrospectively evaluated the spatial and temporal disease patterns associated with influenza-like illness (ILI), positive rapid influenza antigen detection tests (RIDT), and confirmed H1N1 S-OIV cases reported to the Cameron County Department of Health and Human Services between April 26 and May 13, 2009 using the space-time permutation scan statistic software SaTScan in conjunction with geographical information system (GIS) software ArcGIS 9.3. The rate and age-adjusted relative risk of each influenza measure was calculated and a cluster analysis was conducted to determine the geographic regions with statistically higher incidence of disease. A Poisson distribution model was developed to identify the effect that socioeconomic status, population density, and certain population attributes of a census block-group had on that area's frequency of S-OIV confirmed cases over the entire outbreak. Predominant among the spatiotemporal analyses of ILI, RIDT and S-OIV cases in Cameron County is the consistent pattern of a high concentration of cases along the southern border with Mexico. These findings in conjunction with the slight northward space-time shifts of ILI and RIDT cluster centers highlight the southern border as the primary site for public health interventions. Finally, the community-based multiple regression model revealed that three factors—percentage of the population under age 15, average household size, and the number of high school graduates over age 25—were significantly associated with laboratory-confirmed S-OIV in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Together, these findings underscore the need for community-based surveillance, improve our understanding of the distribution of the burden of influenza within the community, and have implications for vaccination and community outreach initiatives.^

Effects of informative censoring on the hazard function: Application to the proportional hazards regression model

The standard analyses of survival data involve the assumption that survival and censoring are independent. When censoring and survival are related, the phenomenon is known as informative censoring. This paper examines the effects of an informative censoring assumption on the hazard function and the estimated hazard ratio provided by the Cox model.^ The limiting factor in all analyses of informative censoring is the problem of non-identifiability. Non-identifiability implies that it is impossible to distinguish a situation in which censoring and death are independent from one in which there is dependence. However, it is possible that informative censoring occurs. Examination of the literature indicates how others have approached the problem and covers the relevant theoretical background.^ Three models are examined in detail. The first model uses conditionally independent marginal hazards to obtain the unconditional survival function and hazards. The second model is based on the Gumbel Type A method for combining independent marginal distributions into bivariate distributions using a dependency parameter. Finally, a formulation based on a compartmental model is presented and its results described. For the latter two approaches, the resulting hazard is used in the Cox model in a simulation study.^ The unconditional survival distribution formed from the first model involves dependency, but the crude hazard resulting from this unconditional distribution is identical to the marginal hazard, and inferences based on the hazard are valid. The hazard ratios formed from two distributions following the Gumbel Type A model are biased by a factor dependent on the amount of censoring in the two populations and the strength of the dependency of death and censoring in the two populations. The Cox model estimates this biased hazard ratio. In general, the hazard resulting from the compartmental model is not constant, even if the individual marginal hazards are constant, unless censoring is non-informative. The hazard ratio tends to a specific limit.^ Methods of evaluating situations in which informative censoring is present are described, and the relative utility of the three models examined is discussed. ^

An individual based model spatial distribution, production and biomass for Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individualbased model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions. The NetCDF file contains model grid coordinates and bottom topography.

EPANET Input Files of New York tunnels and Pacific City used in a metamodel-based optimization study

Metamodels have proven be very useful when it comes to reducing the computational requirements of Evolutionary Algorithm-based optimization by acting as quick-solving surrogates for slow-solving fitness functions. The relationship between metamodel scope and objective function varies between applications, that is, in some cases the metamodel acts as a surrogate for the whole fitness function, whereas in other cases it replaces only a component of the fitness function. This paper presents a formalized qualitative process to evaluate a fitness function to determine the most suitable metamodel scope so as to increase the likelihood of calibrating a high-fidelity metamodel and hence obtain good optimization results in a reasonable amount of time. The process is applied to the risk-based optimization of water distribution systems; a very computationally-intensive problem for real-world systems. The process is validated with a simple case study (modified New York Tunnels) and the power of metamodelling is demonstrated on a real-world case study (Pacific City) with a computational speed-up of several orders of magnitude.

(Table 2) Distribution of alkenone unsaturation index UK37 of the eastern North Atlantic

This paper reports the concentrations and within-class distributions of long-chain alkenones and alkyl alkenoates in the surface waters (0-50 m) of the eastern North Atlantic, and correlates their abundance and distribution with those of source organisms and with water temperature and other environmental variables. We collected these samples of >0.8 µm particulate material from the euphotic zone along the JGOFS 20°W longitude transect, from 61°N to 24°N, during seven cruises of the UK-JGOFS Biogeochemical Ocean Flux Study (BOFS) in 1989-1991; the biogeographical range of our 53 samples extends from the cold (<10°C), nutrient-rich and highly productive subarctic waters of the Iceland Basin to the warm (>25°C) oligotrophic subtropical waters off Africa. Surface water concentrations of total alkenone and alkenoates ranged from <50 ng/l in oligotrophic waters below 40°N to 2000-4500 ng/l in high latitude E. huxleyi blooms, and were well correlated with E. huxleyi cell densities, supporting the assumption that E. huxleyi is the predominant source of these compounds in the present day North Atlantic. The within-class distribution of the C37 and C38 alkenones and C36 alkenoates varied strongly as a function of temperature, and was largely unaffected by nutrient concentration, bloom status and other surface water properties. The biosynthetic response of the source organisms to growth temperature differed between the cold (<16°C) waters above 47°N and the warmer waters to the south. In cold (<16°C) waters above 47°N, the relative amounts of alkenoates and C38 alkenones synthesized was a strong function of growth temperature, while the unsaturation ratio of the alkenones (C37 and C38) was uncorrelated with temperature. Conversely, in warm (>16°C) waters below 47°N, the relative proportions of alkenoates and alkenones synthesized remained constant with increasing temperature while the unsaturation ratios of the C37 and C38 methyl alkenones (Uk37 and Uk38Me, respectively) increased linearly. The fitted regressions of Uk37 and Uk38Me versus temperature for waters >16°C were both highly significant (r**2 > 0.96) and had identical slopes (0.057) that were 50% higher than the slope (0.034) of the temperature calibration of Uk37 reported by Prahl and Wakeham (1987; doi:10.1038/330367a0) over the same temperature range. These observations suggest either a physiological adjustment in biochemical response to growth temperature above a 16-17°C threshold and/or variation between different E. huxleyi strains and/or related species inhabiting the cold and warm water regions of the eastern North Atlantic. Using our North Atlantic data set, we have produced multivariate temperature calibrations incorporating all major features of the alkenone and alkenoate data set. Predicted temperatures using multivariate calibrations are largely unbiased, with a standard error of approximately ±1°C over the entire data range. In contrast, simpler calibration models cannot adequately incorporate regional diversity and nonlinear trends with temperature. Our results indicate that calibrations based upon single variables, such as Uk37, can be strongly biased by unknown systematic errors arising from natural variability in the biosynthetic response of the source organisms to growth temperature. Multivariate temperature calibration can be expected to give more precise estimates of Integrated Production Temperatures (IPT) in the sedimentary record over a wider range of paleoenvironmental conditions, when derived using a calibration data set incorporating a similar range of natural variability in biosynthetic response.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction based on dinoflagellates from the North Atlantic

The application of quantitative and semiquantitative methods to assemblage data from dinoflagellate cysts shows potential for interpreting past environments, both in terms of paleotemperature estimates and in recognizing water masses and circulation patterns. Estimates of winter sea-surface temperature (WSST) were produced by using the Impagidinium Index (II) method, and by applying a winter-temperature transfer function (TFw). Estimates of summer sea-surface temperature (SSST) were produced by using a summer-temperature transfer function (TFs), two methods based on a temperature-distribution chart (ACT and ACTpo), and a method based on the ratio of gonyaulacoid:protoperidinioid specimens (G:P). WSST estimates from the II and TFw methods are in close agreement except where Impagidinium species are sparse. SSST estimates from TFs are more variable. The value of the G:P ratio for the Pliocene data in this paper is limited by the apparent sparsity of protoperidinioids, which results in monotonous SSST estimates of 14-26°C. The ACT methods show two biases for the Pliocene data set: taxonomic substitution may force 'matches' yielding incorrect temperature estimates, and the method is highly sensitive to the end-points of species distributions. Dinocyst assemblage data were applied to reconstruct Pliocene sea-surface temperatures between 3.5-2.5 Ma from DSDP Hole 552A, and ODP Holes 646B and 642B, which are presently located beneath cold and cool-temperate waters north of 56°N. Our initial results suggest that at 3.0 Ma, WSSTs were a few degrees C warmer than the present and that there was a somewhat reduced north-south temperature gradient. For all three sites, it is likely that SSSTs were also warmer, but by an unknown, perhaps large, amount. Past oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic was probably different from the present.

Upper bound on neutrino mass based on T2K neutrino timing measurements

The Tokai to Kamioka (T2K) long-baseline neutrino experiment consists of a muon neutrino beam, produced at the J-PARC accelerator, a near detector complex and a large 295 km distant far detector. The present work utilizes the T2K event timing measurements at the near and far detectors to study neutrino time of flight as function of derived neutrino energy. Under the assumption of a relativistic relation between energy and time of flight, constraints on the neutrino rest mass can be derived. The sub-GeV neutrino beam in conjunction with timing precision of order tens of ns provide sensitivity to neutrino mass in the few MeV/c^2 range. We study the distribution of relative arrival times of muon and electron neutrino candidate events at the T2K far detector as a function of neutrino energy. The 90% C.L. upper limit on the mixture of neutrino mass eigenstates represented in the data sample is found to be m^2 < 5.6 MeV^2/c^4.

Characterization of the dose distribution in the halo region of a clinical proton pencil beam using emulsion film detectors

Proton therapy is a high precision technique in cancer radiation therapy which allows irradiating the tumor with minimal damage to the surrounding healthy tissues. Pencil beam scanning is the most advanced dose distribution technique and it is based on a variable energy beam of a few millimeters FWHM which is moved to cover the target volume. Due to spurious effects of the accelerator, of dose distribution system and to the unavoidable scattering inside the patient's body, the pencil beam is surrounded by a halo that produces a peripheral dose. To assess this issue, nuclear emulsion films interleaved with tissue equivalent material were used for the first time to characterize the beam in the halo region and to experimentally evaluate the corresponding dose. The high-precision tracking performance of the emulsion films allowed studying the angular distribution of the protons in the halo. Measurements with this technique were performed on the clinical beam of the Gantry1 at the Paul Scherrer Institute. Proton tracks were identified in the emulsion films and the track density was studied at several depths. The corresponding dose was assessed by Monte Carlo simulations and the dose profile was obtained as a function of the distance from the center of the beam spot.

Transport properties of CuGaSe(2)-based thin-film solar cells as a function of absorber composition

The transport properties of thin-film solar cells based on wide-gap CuGaSe(2) absorbers have been investigated as a function of the bulk [Ga]/[Cu] ratio ranging from 1.01 to 1.33. We find that (i) the recombination processes in devices prepared from absorbers with a composition close to stoichiometry ([Ga]/[Cu] = 1.01) are strongly tunnelling assisted resulting in low recombination activation energies (E(a)) of approx. 0.95 eV in the dark and 1.36 eV under illumination. (ii) With an increasing [Ga]/[Cu] ratio, the transport mechanism changes to be dominated by thermally activated Shockley-Read-Hall recombination with similar E(a) values of approx. 1.52-1.57 eV for bulk [Ga]/[Cu] ratios of 1.12-1.33. The dominant recombination processes take place at the interface between CdS buffer and CuGaSe(2) absorber independently from the absorber composition. The increase of E(a) with the [Ga]/[Cu] ratio correlates with the open circuit voltage and explains the better performance of corresponding solar cells.

Refining predictions of iberian plant distribution: lessons from p. nigra and p. sylvestris palaeoecological-based habitat suitability models

In recent years, challenged by the climate scenarios put forward by the IPCC and its potential impact on plant distribution, numerous predictive techniques -including the so called habitat suitability models (HSM)- have been developed. Yet, as the output of the different methods produces different distribution areas, developing validation tools are strong needs to reduce uncertainties. Focused in the Iberian Peninsula, we propose a palaeo-based method to increase the robustness of the HSM, by developing an ecological approach to understand the mismatches between the palaeoecological information and the projections of the HSMs. Here, we present the result of (1) investigating causal relationships between environmental variables and presence of Pinus sylvestris L. and P. nigra Arn. available from the 3rd Spanish Forest Inventory, (2) developing present and past presence-predictions through the MaxEnt model for 6 and 21 kyr BP, and (3) assessing these models through comparisons with biomized palaeoecological data available from the European Pollen Database for the Iberian Peninsula.

Conductance interaction identification by means of Boltzmann distribution and mutual information analysis in conductance-based neuron models

Conductance interaction identification by means of Boltzmann distribution and mutual information analysis in conductance-based neuron models.

Validation of a CFD wake model based on the actuator disk technique and the thrust coefficient. Preliminary results

A simplified CFD wake model based on the actuator-disk concept is used to simulate the wind turbine, represented by an actuator disk upon which a distribution of forces, defined as axial momentum sources, are applied on the incoming flow. The rotor is supposed to be uniformly loaded, with the exerted forces as a function of the incident wind speed, the thrust coefficient and the rotor diameter. The model is validated through experimental measurements downwind of a wind turbine in terms of wind speed deficit. Validation on turbulence intensity will also be made in the near future.

Popularity based distribution schemes for P2P assisted streaming of VoD contents

The Video on Demand (VoD) service is becoming a dominant service in the telecommunication market due to the great convenience regarding the choice of content items and their independent viewing time. However, it comes with the downsides of high server storage and capacity demands because of the large variety of content items and the high amount of traffic generated for serving all requests. Storing part of the popular contents on the peers brings certain advantages but, it still has issues regarding the overall traffic in the core of the network and the scalability. Therefore, we propose a P2P assisted model for streaming VoD contents that takes advantage of the clients unused uplink and storage capacity to serve requests of other clients and we present popularity based schemes for distribution of both the popular and unpopular contents on the peers. The proposed model and the schemes prove to reduce the streaming traffic in the core of the network, improve the responsiveness of the system and increase its scalability.

Esfuerzos inducidos en presas, arco-gravedad en operación por la acción térmica medioambiental : una aportación a su análisis y evaluación

Cyclic fluctuations of the atmospheric temperature on the dam site, of the water temperature in the reservoir and of the intensity of solar radiation on the faces of the dam cause significant stresses in the body of concrete dams. These stresses can be evaluated first by introducing in analysis models a linear temperature distribution statically equivalent to the real temperature distribution in the dam; the stress valúes obtained from this first step must be complemented (especially in the área of dam faces) with the stress valúes resuiting from the difference between the real temperature law and the linear law at each node. In the case of arch gravity dams, and because of their characteristics of arch dam featuring a thick section, both types of temperature-induced stresses are of similar importance. Thermal stress valúes are directly linked to a series of factors: atmospheric and water temperature and intensity of solar radiation at dam site, site latitude, azimuth of the dam, as well as geometrical characteristics of the dam and thermal properties of concrete. This thesis first presents a complete study of the physical phenomenon of heat exchange between the environment and the dam itself, and establishes the participation scheme of all parameters involved in the problem considered. A detailed documental review of available methods and techniques is then carried out both for the estimation of environmental thermal loads and for the evaluation of the stresses induced by these loads. Variation ranges are also established for the main parameters. The definition of the geometrical parameters of the dam is provided based on the description of a wide set of arch gravity dams built in Spain and abroad. As a practical reference of the parameters defining the thermal action of the environment, a set of zones, in which thermal parameters reach homogeneous valúes, was established for Spain. The mean valué and variation range of atmospheric temperature were then determined for each zone, based on a series of historical valúes. Summer and winter temperature increases caused by solar radiation were also defined for each zone. Since the hypothesis of thermal stratification in the reservoir has been considered, máximum and mínimum temperature valúes reached at the bottom of the reservoir were determined for each climatic zone, as well as the law of temperature variation in function of depth. Various dam-and-foundation configurations were analysed by means of finite element 3D models, in which the dam and foundation were each submitted to different load combinations. The seasonal thermal behaviour of sections of variable thickness was analysed through the application of numerical techniques to one-dimensional models. Contrasting the results of both analyses led to conclusions on the influence of environmental thermal action on the stress conditions of the structure. Las oscilaciones periódicas de la temperatura ambiente en el emplazamiento y de la temperatura del agua en el embalse, así como de la incidencia de la radiación solar sobre los paramentos de la presa, son causa de tensiones importantes en el cuerpo de las presas de hormigón. Estas tensiones pueden ser evaluadas en primer lugar introduciendo en los modelos tridimensionales de análisis, distribuciones lineales de temperatura estáticamente equivalentes a las correspondientes distribuciones reales en el cuerpo de la presa; las tensiones así obtenidas han de complementarse (sobre todo en las cercanías de los paramentos) con tensiones cuyo origen está en la temperatura diferencia entre la ley real y la lineal en cada punto. En el caso de las presas arco-gravedad y en razón de su doble característica de presas arco y de sección gruesa, ambas componentes de la tensión inducida por la temperatura son de magnitud similar. Los valores de estas tensiones de origen térmico están directamente relacionados con la temperatura del emplazamiento y del embalse, con la intensidad de la insolación, con la latitud y el azimut de la presa, con las características geométricas de la estructura y con las propiedades térmicas del hormigón. En esta tesis se realiza, en primer lugar, un estudio completo del fenómeno físico del intercambio de calor entre el medio ambiente y el cuerpo de la presa, estableciendo el mecanismo de participación de todos los parámetros que configuran el problema. En segundo lugar se realiza a cabo una revisión documental detallada de los métodos y técnicas utilizables tanto en la estimación de las cargas térmicas ambientales como en la evaluación de las tensiones inducidas por dichas cargas. En tercer lugar se establecen rangos de variación para los principales parámetros que configuran el problema. Los parámetros geométricos de la presa se definen a partir de la descripción de un amplio conjunto de presas arco-gravedad tanto españolas como del resto del mundo. Como referencia práctica de los parámetros que definen la acción térmica ambiental se establecen en España un conjunto de zonas caracterizadas por que, en cada una de ellas, los parámetros térmicos alcanzan valores homogéneos. Así, y en base a series de valores históricos, se establecen la media y la amplitud de la variación anual de la temperatura ambiental en cada una de las zonas. Igualmente, se han definido para cada zona los incrementos de temperatura que, en invierno y en verano, produce la insolación. En relación con el agua del embalse y en la hipótesis de estratificación térmica de este, se han definido los valores, aplicables en cada una de las zonas, de las temperaturas máxima y mínima en el fondo así como la ley de variación de la temperatura con la profundidad. Utilizando modelos tridimensionales de elementos finitos se analizan diferentes configuraciones de la presa y la cimentación sometidas, cada una de ellas, a diferentes combinaciones de carga. Aplicando técnicas numéricas a modelos unidimensionales se analiza el comportamiento térmico temporal de secciones de espesor variable. Considerando conjuntamente los resultados de los análisis anteriores se obtienen conclusiones parametrizadas de detalle sobre la influencia que tiene en el estado tensional de la estructura la consideración de la acción térmica ambiental.