The great February 1986 flood [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): There were many similarities between the February 1986 storm and that of December 1964 and also December 1955. The 1964 storm hit hardest a little further north and the North Coast took the brunt of that storm. December 1955 also produced higher north coastal area runoff. December 1955 produced greater peaks in the central part of the state than the 1964 flood and is perhaps more comparable south of the Lake Tahoe-American River area. But the real surprise this time was the volume. Four reservoirs, Folsom, Black Butte, Pardee, and Comanche, were filled completely and became surcharged (storing more water than the designed capacity). The 10 day total rainfall amounted to half the normal annual totals at many precipitation stations. The February 1986 flood is a vivid reminder of the extremes of California climate and the value of the extensive system of flood control works in the state. Before the storm, especially in January, there was much concern about the dryness of the water year. Then with the deluge, California's flood control systems were tested. By and large the system worked preventing untold damage and misery for most dwellers in the flat lands.

A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

Global analysis of mRNA half-lives and de novo transcription in a dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis

Dinoflagellates possess many physiological processes that appear to be under post-transcriptional control. However, the extent to which their genes are regulated post-transcriptionally remains unresolved. To gain insight into the roles of differential mRNA stability and de novo transcription in dinoflagellates, we biosynthetically labeled RNA with 4-thiouracil to isolate newly transcribed and pre-existing RNA pools in Karenia brevis. These isolated fractions were then used for analysis of global mRNA stability and de novo transcription by hybridization to a K. brevis microarray. Global K. brevis mRNA half-lives were calculated from the ratio of newly transcribed to pre-existing RNA for 7086 array features using the online software HALO (Half-life Organizer). Overall, mRNA half-lives were substantially longer than reported in other organisms studied at the global level, ranging from 42 minutes to greater than 144 h, with a median of 33 hours. Consistent with well-documented trends observed in other organisms, housekeeping processes, including energy metabolism and transport, were significantly enriched in the most highly stable messages. Shorter-lived transcripts included a higher proportion of transcriptional regulation, stress response, and other response/regulatory processes. One such family of proteins involved in post-transcriptional regulation in chloroplasts and mitochondria, the pentatricopeptide repeat (PPR) proteins, had dramatically shorter half-lives when compared to the arrayed transcriptome. As transcript abundances for PPR proteins were previously observed to rapidly increase in response to nutrient addition, we queried the newly synthesized RNA pools at 1 and 4 h following nitrate addition to N-depleted cultures. Transcriptome-wide there was little evidence of increases in the rate of de novo transcription during the first 4 h, relative to that in N-depleted cells, and no evidence for increased PPR protein transcription. These results lend support to the growing consensus of post-transcriptional control of gene expression in dinoflagellates.

Small-boat surveys for coastal dolphins: line-transect surveys of Hector’s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus hectori)

Management of coastal species of small cetaceans is often impeded by a lack of robust estimates of their abundance. In the Austral summers of 1997−98, 1998−99, and 1999−2000 we conducted line-transect surveys of Hector’s dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori) abundance off the north, east, and south coasts of the South Island of New Zealand. Survey methods were modified for the use of a 15-m sailing catamaran, which was equipped with a collapsible sighting platform giving observers an eye-height of 6 m. Eighty-six percent of 2061 km of survey effort was allocated to inshore waters (4 nautical miles [nmi] or 7.4 km from shore), and the remainder to offshore waters (4−10 nmi or 7.4–18.5 km from shore). Transects were placed at 45° to the shore and spaced apart by 1, 2, 4, or 8 nmi according to pre-existing data on dolphin density. Survey effort within strata was uniform. Detection functions for sheltered waters and open coasts were fitted separately for each survey. The effect of attraction of dolphins to the survey vessel and the fraction of dolphins missed on the trackline were assessed with simultaneous boat and helicopter surveys in January 1999. Hector’s dolphin abundance in the coastal zone to 4 nmi offshore was calculated at 1880 individuals (CV=15.7%, log-normal 95% CI=1384−2554). These surveys are the first line-transect surveys for cetaceans in New Zealand’s coastal waters.

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.

意大利威尼托（Veneto）的刺叶栎林-植物社会学生物多样性研究

刺叶栎( Quercus ilex L．)是地中海的常绿树种，属于古老的第三纪植物区系成份。本文根据苏黎世——蒙特利尔学派的植被学基本原理，全面地研究了分布在整个威尼托(Veneto)大区的剌叶栎林，详细研究刺叶栎林的群落组成、结构及类型划分。同时，对威尼托的刺叶栎林同北京山区的栎林进行了比较研究。最后，着重研究了威尼托刺叶栎林的生物多样性。 威尼托的刺叶栎林主要分布在亚得里亚海沿岸（包括Foci del Tagtiamento和Bosco Nordio e Rosolina Mare两地）、Lago di Garda和Colli Euganei。 在气候上，亚得里亚海沿岸属于半地中海气候。加尔达湖区域(Laqo di Garda)则是接近欧洲中部的大陆性气候，且维持半地中海的气候特点。Co t l i Euganei是这两地气候的过渡类型，且更接近亚得里亚海沿岸的类型。 在亚得里亚海沿岸的刺叶栎林可以分为三类，第一类(I)是一些矮树丛，这是Fraxinus ornus和Quercus ilex混交林的前身，较干旱。第二类群落(II)缺少乔木层，灌木层是由一些盖度不大的刺叶栎代替，更干旱。第三类群落(Ⅲ)是一群在外貌上相同的成熟群落．Fraxinus ornus和Quercus ilex得到充分发展，较中生。 在加尔达湖区的刺叶栎林可划分为三类。第一类群落(I)代表一组耐旱、开敞的矮树丛，含有Sesterio Variae-Ostryelum群丛的特征种，这一类可划分为SesLerio Variae-Ostryetum群 丛，土壤贫脊和干旱。第二类群落(Ⅱ)代表一类较郁闭的矮树丛，含有较多的Prunetalia群落目的成份，土壤较贫脊。第三类群(Ⅲ)代表一类郁闭的群落，乔木具有很大的密度因而林下灌木不能充分发展。SesLerio Variae-Ostryetum群丛和Prunetalia群落目的成份均不多。 在Colli Euganei的刺叶栎林可划分为二类。第一类群落(I)是一些不郁闲的矮树林组成。大体上分为地中海旱生栎林和地中海假灌丛。第二类群落(II)代表了较中生状态的植被，刺叶标种群绝对郁闭。 北京地处华北大平原的西北部。北京山地的气候为温带陆地性季风气候，其地带性的落叶阔叶林是以栎林为典型。虽然这些栎林同意大利威尼托刺叶栎林是两种不同的森林类型，但两者之间是存在着一定的联系。其共有的科有20个，共有属有11个。他们在植物组成中，以禾本科，蔷薇科和豆科的植物种类为最多。在乔木层中，他们都是以壳斗科的栎属(Quercus)为优势，其中木犀科的白蜡属(Fraxinus)和槭树属(Acer)较多。 本文对威尼托大区刺叶栎林的物种多度分布格局进行了全面探讨，计算出刺叶栎林的几何分布模型、Broken-stick分布模型、Log分布模型、Log-normat分布模型等四种物种多度分布的理论模型，并将这些理论分布模型用“序列／多度”图解和“多度／频度”图解表示出来。其中，几何分布模型．Broken-stick1分布模型用“序列／多度”图解表示。Broken-stick2分布模型、Log分布模型、Log-normal分布模型用“多度／频度”图解表示。 对上述四个物种多度的理论分布同实际现察的物种多度分布进行X2分析，在5％的显著性水平上，对整个威托大区的刺叶 栎林，几何分布模型最能代表其物种多度分布，显著性最大;Log-normal分布模型也可以用来代表威尼托刺叶标妹的物种多度分布，其显著性次于几何分布模型的显著性。这表明威尼托的刺叶栎林尚处于演替的早期阶段，这些刺叶栎林曾受到严重破坏，现正在恢复。 通过比较Foci del Tagtiamento和Bosco Nordio加尔达湖区、Colli Euganei四个地方刺叶栎林的物种多度的几何分布模型和Log-normal分布模型，显示出Lago di Garda（加尔达湖区）的刺叶栎林生物多样性最好、Foci del Tagtiamento刺叶栎林生物多样性较好．Bosco Nordio的剌叶栎林生物多样性较差．Colli Euganei的刺叶栎林生物多样性最差。 再利用多样性指数计算全部威尼托大区剌叶栎林的生物多样性。计算的多样性指数有丰富度指数（包括Margalef指数、Men-hinick指数、Monk指数）、多样性指数(Shannon信息指数、Bri llouin个息指数、Gini指数、PIE指数、Mcintosh指数)、优势度指数(Berger-Parker指数、Simpson指数)、均一度指数(Pielou均一度指数、Brillouin均一度指数，PIE的V’均一度指数．PIE的V均一度指数，N2的V’均一度指数，N2的V均一度指数，Mclntosh均一度指数，Hill的F10均一度指数，Hill的E21均一度指数，Hill的F21的一度指数）。通过比较丰富度指数，多样性指数、均一度指数与优势度之间的关系，结果，Simpson优势度指数同Men-hinick物种丰富度指数、Shannon信息指数、Bril-louin信息指数、Pielou均一度指数，Brillouin均一度指数，Mcintosh均一度指数、PIE的V’均一度指数呈负相关关系，因此，上述生物多样性指数可以较好地反映威尼托大区刺叶栎林的生物多样性。反映出的结果是：加尔达湖区刺叶栎林生物多样性最好，Foci del Tagtiamento刺叶栎林生物多样性较好，Bosco Nordio的剌叶栎林生物多样性较差．Colli Euganei的刺叶栎林生物多样性最差。 生物多样性的研究显示出生物多样性同生境状况的密切联系。往往受人为干扰严重的群落生物多样性低、如Coli Euganei和亚得里亚海岸刺叶栋林;而受人为破坏较轻的群落其生物多样性高，如加尔达湖区刺叶栎。 生物多样性的研究还显示出生物多样性同群落演替的发展阶段密切相关，在群落演替初期，由于缺乏优势种，而又有大量物种侵入，物多样性相对较高。在群落演替中期，由于形成了一个或几个优势种，优势度的增加导致了生物多样性相对减低。如Foci del Tagtiamento刺叶栎林生物多样性高于Bosco Nordio刺叶栎林的生物多样性。到演替后期，随着更多物种的侵入，群落结构的复杂化、生物多样性又将逐步提高。