Temporal dynamics of emotional responding: amygdala recovery predicts emotional traits

An individual’s affective style is influenced by many things, including the manner in which an individual responds to an emotional challenge. Emotional response is composed of a number of factors, two of which are the initial reactivity to an emotional stimulus and the subsequent recovery once the stimulus terminates or ceases to be relevant. However, most neuroimaging studies examining emotional processing in humans focus on the magnitude of initial reactivity to a stimulus rather than the prolonged response. In this study, we use functional magnetic resonance imaging to study the time course of amygdala activity in healthy adults in response to presentation of negative images. We split the amygdala time course into an initial reactivity period and a recovery period beginning after the offset of the stimulus. We find that initial reactivity in the amygdala does not predict trait measures of affective style. Conversely, amygdala recovery shows predictive power such that slower amygdala recovery from negative images predicts greater trait neuroticism, in addition to lower levels of likability of a set of social stimuli (neutral faces). These data underscore the importance of taking into account temporal dynamics when studying affective processing using neuroimaging.

Reconciling observed and modelled phytoplankton dynamics in a major lowland UK river system, the Thames

This study aims to elucidate the key mechanisms controlling phytoplankton growth and decay within the Thames basin through the application of a modified version of an established river-algal model and comparison with observed stream water chlorophyll-a concentrations. The River Thames showed a distinct simulated phytoplankton seasonality and behaviour having high spring, moderate summer and low autumn chlorophyll-a concentrations. Three main sections were identified along the River Thames with different phytoplankton abundance and seasonality: (i) low chlorophyll-a concentrations from source to Newbridge; (ii) steep concentration increase between Newbridge and Sutton; and (iii) high concentrations with a moderate increase in concentration from Sutton to the end of the study area (Maidenhead). However, local hydrologic (e.g. locks) and other conditions (e.g. radiation, water depth, grazer dynamics, etc.) affected the simulated growth and losses. The model achieved good simulation results during both calibration and testing through a range of hydrological and nutrient conditions. Simulated phytoplankton growth was controlled predominantly by residence time, but during medium–low flow periods available light, water temperature and herbivorous grazing defined algal community development. These results challenge the perceived importance of in-stream nutrient concentrations as the perceived primary control on phytoplankton growth and death.

Assessing levels of uncertainty in recent temperature time series

We examine to what degree we can expect to obtain accurate temperature trends for the last two decades near the surface and in the lower troposphere. We compare temperatures obtained from surface observations and radiosondes as well as satellite-based measurements from the Microwave Soundings Units (MSU), which have been adjusted for orbital decay and non-linear instrument-body effects, and reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA) and the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). In regions with abundant conventional data coverage, where the MSU has no major influence on the reanalysis, temperature anomalies obtained from microwave sounders, radiosondes and from both reanalyses agree reasonably. Where coverage is insufficient, in particular over the tropical oceans, large differences are found between the MSU and either reanalysis. These differences apparently relate to changes in the satellite data availability and to differing satellite retrieval methodologies, to which both reanalyses are quite sensitive over the oceans. For NCEP, this results from the use of raw radiances directly incorporated into the analysis, which make the reanalysis sensitive to changes in the underlying algorithms, e.g. those introduced in August 1992. For ERA, the bias-correction of the one-dimensional variational analysis may introduce an error when the satellite relative to which the correction is calculated is biased itself or when radiances change on a time scale longer than a couple of months, e.g. due to orbit decay. ERA inhomogeneities are apparent in April 1985, October/November 1986 and April 1989. These dates can be identified with the replacements of satellites. It is possible that a negative bias in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used in the reanalyses may have been introduced over the period of the satellite record. This could have resulted from a decrease in the number of ship measurements, a concomitant increase in the importance of satellite-derived SSTs, and a likely cold bias in the latter. Alternately, a warm bias in SSTs could have been caused by an increase in the percentage of buoy measurements (relative to deeper ship intake measurements) in the tropical Pacific. No indications for uncorrected inhomogeneities of land surface temperatures could be found. Near-surface temperatures have biases in the boundary layer in both reanalyses, presumably due to the incorrect treatment of snow cover. The increase of near-surface compared to lower tropospheric temperatures in the last two decades may be due to a combination of several factors, including high-latitude near-surface winter warming due to an enhanced NAO and upper-tropospheric cooling due to stratospheric ozone decrease.

Testing for significance of phase synchronisation dynamics in the EEG

A number of tests exist to check for statistical significance of phase synchronisation within the Electroencephalogram (EEG); however, the majority suffer from a lack of generality and applicability. They may also fail to account for temporal dynamics in the phase synchronisation, regarding synchronisation as a constant state instead of a dynamical process. Therefore, a novel test is developed for identifying the statistical significance of phase synchronisation based upon a combination of work characterising temporal dynamics of multivariate time-series and Markov modelling. We show how this method is better able to assess the significance of phase synchronisation than a range of commonly used significance tests. We also show how the method may be applied to identify and classify significantly different phase synchronisation dynamics in both univariate and multivariate datasets.

Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change

Dynamics affects the distribution and abundance of stratospheric ozone directly through transport of ozone itself and indirectly through its effect on ozone chemistry via temperature and transport of other chemical species. Dynamical processes must be considered in order to understand past ozone changes, especially in the northern hemisphere where there appears to be significant low-frequency variability which can look “trend-like” on decadal time scales. A major challenge is to quantify the predictable, or deterministic, component of past ozone changes. Over the coming century, changes in climate will affect the expected recovery of ozone. For policy reasons it is important to be able to distinguish and separately attribute the effects of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases on both ozone and climate. While the radiative-chemical effects can be relatively easily identified, this is not so evident for dynamics — yet dynamical changes (e.g., changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation) could have a first-order effect on ozone over particular regions. Understanding the predictability and robustness of such dynamical changes represents another major challenge. Chemistry-climate models have recently emerged as useful tools for addressing these questions, as they provide a self-consistent representation of dynamical aspects of climate and their coupling to ozone chemistry. We can expect such models to play an increasingly central role in the study of ozone and climate in the future, analogous to the central role of global climate models in the study of tropospheric climate change.

Four-dimensional data assimilation and balanced dynamics

The problem of spurious excitation of gravity waves in the context of four-dimensional data assimilation is investigated using a simple model of balanced dynamics. The model admits a chaotic vortical mode coupled to a comparatively fast gravity wave mode, and can be initialized such that the model evolves on a so-called slow manifold, where the fast motion is suppressed. Identical twin assimilation experiments are performed, comparing the extended and ensemble Kalman filters (EKF and EnKF, respectively). The EKF uses a tangent linear model (TLM) to estimate the evolution of forecast error statistics in time, whereas the EnKF uses the statistics of an ensemble of nonlinear model integrations. Specifically, the case is examined where the true state is balanced, but observation errors project onto all degrees of freedom, including the fast modes. It is shown that the EKF and EnKF will assimilate observations in a balanced way only if certain assumptions hold, and that, outside of ideal cases (i.e., with very frequent observations), dynamical balance can easily be lost in the assimilation. For the EKF, the repeated adjustment of the covariances by the assimilation of observations can easily unbalance the TLM, and destroy the assumptions on which balanced assimilation rests. It is shown that an important factor is the choice of initial forecast error covariance matrix. A balance-constrained EKF is described and compared to the standard EKF, and shown to offer significant improvement for observation frequencies where balance in the standard EKF is lost. The EnKF is advantageous in that balance in the error covariances relies only on a balanced forecast ensemble, and that the analysis step is an ensemble-mean operation. Numerical experiments show that the EnKF may be preferable to the EKF in terms of balance, though its validity is limited by ensemble size. It is also found that overobserving can lead to a more unbalanced forecast ensemble and thus to an unbalanced analysis.

Zonal-mean dynamics of extended recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings

The recovery of the Arctic polar vortex following stratospheric sudden warmings is found to take upward of 3 months in a particular subset of cases, termed here polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. The anomalous zonal-mean circulation above the pole during this recovery is characterized by a persistently warm lower stratosphere, and above this a cold midstratosphere and anomalously high stratopause, which descends as the event unfolds. Composites of these events in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model show the persistence of the lower-stratospheric anomaly is a result of strongly suppressed wave driving and weak radiative cooling at these heights. The upper-stratospheric and lower-mesospheric anomalies are driven immediately following the warming by anomalous planetary-scale eddies, following which, anomalous parameterized nonorographic and orographic gravity waves play an important role. These details are found to be robust for PJO events (as opposed to sudden warmings in general) in that many details of individual PJO events match the composite mean. Azonal-mean quasigeostrophic model on the sphere is shown to reproduce the response to the thermal and mechanical forcings produced during a PJO event. The former is well approximated by Newtonian cooling. The response can thus be considered as a transient approach to the steady-state, downward control limit. In this context, the time scale of the lower-stratospheric anomaly is determined by the transient, radiative response to the extended absence of wave driving. The extent to which the dynamics of the wave-driven descent of the stratopause can be considered analogous to the descending phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is also discussed.

Tropical Atlantic variability modes (1979–2002). Part I: Time-evolving SST modes related to West African rainfall

This work presents a description of the 1979–2002 tropical Atlantic (TA) SST variability modes coupled to the anomalous West African (WA) rainfall during the monsoon season. The time-evolving SST patterns, with an impact on WA rainfall variability, are analyzed using a new methodology based on maximum covariance analysis. The enhanced Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) dataset, which includes measures over the ocean, gives a complete picture of the interannual WA rainfall patterns for the Sahel dry period. The leading TA SST pattern, related to the Atlantic El Niño, is coupled to anomalous precipitation over the coast of the Gulf of Guinea, which corresponds to the second WA rainfall principal component. The thermodynamics and dynamics involved in the generation, development, and damping of this mode are studied and compared with previous works. The SST mode starts at the Angola/Benguela region and is caused by alongshore wind anomalies. It then propagates westward via Rossby waves and damps because of latent heat flux anomalies and Kelvin wave eastward propagation from an off-equatorial forcing. The second SST mode includes the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean, showing how the Mediterranean SST anomalies are those that are directly associated with the Sahelian rainfall. The global signature of the TA SST patterns is analyzed, adding new insights about the Pacific– Atlantic link in relation to WA rainfall during this period. Also, this global picture suggests that the Mediterranean SST anomalies are a fingerprint of large-scale forcing. This work updates the results given by other authors, whose studies are based on different datasets dating back to the 1950s, including both the wet and the dry Sahel periods.

Averaging, slaving and balance dynamics in a simple atmospheric model

We report numerical results from a study of balance dynamics using a simple model of atmospheric motion that is designed to help address the question of why balance dynamics is so stable. The non-autonomous Hamiltonian model has a chaotic slow degree of freedom (representing vortical modes) coupled to one or two linear fast oscillators (representing inertia-gravity waves). The system is said to be balanced when the fast and slow degrees of freedom are separated. We find adiabatic invariants that drift slowly in time. This drift is consistent with a random-walk behaviour at a speed which qualitatively scales, even for modest time scale separations, as the upper bound given by Neishtadt’s and Nekhoroshev’s theorems. Moreover, a similar type of scaling is observed for solutions obtained using a singular perturbation (‘slaving’) technique in resonant cases where Nekhoroshev’s theorem does not apply. We present evidence that the smaller Lyapunov exponents of the system scale exponentially as well. The results suggest that the observed stability of nearly-slow motion is a consequence of the approximate adiabatic invariance of the fast motion.

Wave-activity conservation laws and stability theorems for semi-geostrophic dynamics: part 2. pseudoenergy-based theory

This paper represents the second part of a study of semi-geostrophic (SG) geophysical fluid dynamics. SG dynamics shares certain attractive properties with the better known and more widely used quasi-geostrophic (QG) model, but is also a good prototype for balanced models that are more accurate than QG dynamics. The development of such balanced models is an area of great current interest. The goal of the present work is to extend a central body of QG theory, concerning the evolution of disturbances to prescribed basic states, to SG dynamics. Part 1 was based on the pseudomomentum; Part 2 is based on the pseudoenergy. A pseudoenergy invariant is a conserved quantity, of second order in disturbance amplitude relative to a prescribed steady basic state, which is related to the time symmetry of the system. We derive such an invariant for the semi-geostrophic equations, and use it to obtain: (i) a linear stability theorem analogous to Arnol'd's ‘first theorem’; and (ii) a small-amplitude local conservation law for the invariant, obeying the group-velocity property in the WKB limit. The results are analogous to their quasi-geostrophic forms, and reduce to those forms in the limit of small Rossby number. The results are derived for both the f-plane Boussinesq form of semi-geostrophic dynamics, and its extension to β-plane compressible flow by Magnusdottir & Schubert. Novel features particular to semi-geostrophic dynamics include apparently unnoticed lateral boundary stability criteria. Unlike the boundary stability criteria found in the first part of this study, however, these boundary criteria do not necessarily preclude the construction of provably stable basic states. The interior semi-geostrophic dynamics has an underlying Hamiltonian structure, which guarantees that symmetries in the system correspond naturally to the system's invariants. This is an important motivation for the theoretical approach used in this study. The connection between symmetries and conservation laws is made explicit using Noether's theorem applied to the Eulerian form of the Hamiltonian description of the interior dynamics.

A review of Holocene rainforest ecotonal dynamics at opposite ends of the Amazon - Bolivia versus Colombia

In this review paper, the aim is to compare and contrast fossil pollen evidence for Holocene rainforest ecotonal dynamics at opposite ends of the Amazon basin – the southern ecotone in NE lowland Bolivia versus the northern ecotone in lowland Colombia. During the Holocene, tropical South America experienced major changes in precipitation (Silva Dias et al. 2009). Consideration of Amazonian rainforest dynamics over this time-frame may therefore provide important insights into rainforest responsiveness to climate change.

Southern annular mode dynamics in observations and models, Part I: The influence of climatological zonal wind biases in a comprehensive GCM

A common bias among global climate models (GCMs) is that they exhibit tropospheric southern annular mode (SAM) variability that is much too persistent in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) summertime. This is of concern for the ability to accurately predict future SH circulation changes, so it is important that it be understood and alleviated. In this two-part study, specifically targeted experiments with the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) are used to improve understanding of the enhanced summertime SAM persistence. Given the ubiquity of this bias among comprehensive GCMs, it is likely that the results will be relevant for other climate models. Here, in Part I, the influence of climatological circulation biases on SAM variability is assessed, with a particular focus on two common biases that could enhance summertime SAM persistence: the too-late breakdown of the Antarctic stratospheric vortex and the equatorward bias in the SH tropospheric midlatitude jet. Four simulations are used to investigate the role of each of these biases in CMAM. Nudging and bias correcting procedures are used to systematically remove zonal-mean stratospheric variability and/or remove climatological zonal wind biases. The SAM time-scale bias is not alleviated by improving either the timing of the stratospheric vortex breakdown or the climatological jet structure. Even in the absence of stratospheric variability and with an improved climatological circulation, the model time scales are biased long. This points toward a bias in internal tropospheric dynamics that is not caused by the tropospheric jet structure bias. The underlying cause of this is examined in more detail in Part II of this study.

The effect of non-uniform radiative damping on the zonal-mean dynamics of the extratropical middle atmosphere

The effect of spatial and temporal variations in the radiative damping rate on the response to an imposed forcing or diabatic heating is examined in a zonal-mean model of the middle atmosphere. Attention is restricted to the extratropics, where a linear approach is viable. It is found that regions with weak radiative damping rates are more sensitive in terms of temperature to the remote influence of the diabatic circulation. The delay in the response in such regions can mean that ‘downward’ control is not achieved on seasonal time-scales. A seasonal variation in the radiative damping rate modulates the evolution of the response and leaves a transient-like signature in the annual mean temperature field. Several idealized examples are considered, motivated by topical questions. It is found that wave drag outside the polar vortex can significantly affect the temperatures in its interior, so that high-latitude, high-altitude gravity-wave drag is not the only mechanism for warming the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Diabatic mass transport through the 100 hPa surface is found to lag the seasonal evolution of the wave drag that drives the transport, and thus cannot be considered to be in the downward control regime. On the other hand, the seasonal variation of the radiative damping rate is found to make only a weak contribution to the annual mean temperature increase that has been observed above the ozone hole. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.

Mechanism for synchronized motion between two humans in mutual tapping experiments: Transition from alternative mode to synchronization mode

We performed mutual tapping experiments between two humans to investigate the conditions required for synchronized motion. A transition from an alternative mode to a synchronization mode was discovered under the same conditions when a subject changed from a reactive mode to an anticipation mode in single tapping experiments. Experimental results suggest that the cycle time for each tapping motion is tuned by a proportional control that is based on synchronization errors and cycle time errors. As the tapping frequency increases, the mathematical model based on the feedback control in the sensory-motor closed loop predicts a discrete mode transition as the gain factors of the proportional control decease. The conditions of the synchronization were shown as a consequence of the coupled dynamics based on the subsequent feedback loop in the sensory-motor system.

Modelling the time-evolution of phytoplankton size spectra from satellite remote sensing

A dynamic size-structured model is developed for phytoplankton and nutrients in the oceanic mixed layer and applied to extract phytoplankton biomass at discrete size fractions from remotely sensed, ocean-colour data. General relationships between cell size and biophysical processes (such as sinking, grazing, and primary production) of phytoplankton were included in the model through a bottom–up approach. Time-dependent, mixed-layer depth was used as a forcing variable, and a sequential data-assimilation scheme was implemented to derive model trajectories. From a given time-series, the method produces estimates of size-structured biomass at every observation, so estimates seasonal succession of individual phytoplankton size, derived here from remote sensing for the first time. From these estimates, normalized phytoplankton biomass size spectra over a period of 9 years were calculated for one location in the North Atlantic. Further analysis demonstrated that strong relationships exist between the seasonal trends of the estimated size spectra and the mixed-layer depth, nutrient biomass, and total chlorophyll. The results contain useful information on the time-dependent biomass flux in the pelagic ecosystem.