Evaluation of the conductor-like screening model for real solvents for the prediction of the water activity coefficient at infinite dilution in ionic liquids

Ionic liquids (ILs) have attracted great attention, from both industry and academia, as alternative fluids for very different types of applications. The large number of cations and anions allow a wide range of physical and chemical characteristics to be designed. However, the exhaustive measurement of all these systems is impractical, thus requiring the use of a predictive model for their study. In this work, the predictive capability of the conductor-like screening model for real solvents (COSMO-RS), a model based on unimolecular quantum chemistry calculations, was evaluated for the prediction water activity coefficient at infinite dilution, gamma(infinity)(w), in several classes of ILs. A critical evaluation of the experimental and predicted data using COSMO-RS was carried out. The global average relative deviation was found to be 27.2%, indicating that the model presents a satisfactory prediction ability to estimate gamma(infinity)(w) in a broad range of ILs. The results also showed that the basicity of the ILs anions plays an important role in their interaction with water, and it considerably determines the enthalpic behavior of the binary mixtures composed by Its and water. Concerning the cation effect, it is possible to state that generally gamma(infinity)(w) increases with the cation size, but it is shown that the cation-anion interaction strength is also important and is strongly correlated to the anion ability to interact with water. The results here reported are relevant in the understanding of ILs-water interactions and the impact of the various structural features of its on the gamma(infinity)(w) as these allow the development of guidelines for the choice of the most suitable lLs with enhanced interaction with water.

Sensitisation waves in a bidomain fire-diffuse-fire model of intracellular Ca²⁺ dynamics

We present a bidomain threshold model of intracellular calcium (Ca²⁺) dynamics in which, as suggested by recent experiments, the cytosolic threshold for Ca²⁺ liberation is modulated by the Ca²⁺ concentration in the releasing compartment. We explicitly construct stationary fronts and determine their stability using an Evans function approach. Our results show that a biologically motivated choice of a dynamic threshold, as opposed to a constant threshold, can pin stationary fronts that would otherwise be unstable. This illustrates a novel mechanism to stabilise pinned interfaces in continuous excitable systems. Our framework also allows us to compute travelling pulse solutions in closed form and systematically probe the wave speed as a function of physiologically important parameters. We find that the existence of travelling wave solutions depends on the time scale of the threshold dynamics, and that facilitating release by lowering the cytosolic threshold increases the wave speed. The construction of the Evans function for a travelling pulse shows that of the co-existing fast and slow solutions the slow one is always unstable.

Comparing simulation output accuracy of discrete event and agent based models: a quantitative approach

In our research we investigate the output accuracy of discrete event simulation models and agent based simulation models when studying human centric complex systems. In this paper we focus on human reactive behaviour as it is possible in both modelling approaches to implement human reactive behaviour in the model by using standard methods. As a case study we have chosen the retail sector, and here in particular the operations of the fitting room in the women wear department of a large UK department store. In our case study we looked at ways of determining the efficiency of implementing new management policies for the fitting room operation through modelling the reactive behaviour of staff and customers of the department. First, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our models to the performance of the real system. This experiment also allowed us to establish differences in output accuracy between the two modelling methods. In a second step a multi-scenario experiment was carried out to study the behaviour of the models when they are used for the purpose of operational improvement. Overall we have found that for our case study example both, discrete event simulation and agent based simulation have the same potential to support the investigation into the efficiency of implementing new management policies.

Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

DEVELOPMENT OF A NUCLEIC ACID-BASED SPECIFIC GROWTH MODEL FOR JUVENILE BLUE CRAB, CALLINECTES SAPIDUS

The evaluation and identification of habitats that function as nurseries for marine species has the potential to improve conservation and management. A key assessment of nursery habitat is estimating individual growth. However, the discrete growth of crustaceans presents a challenge for many traditional in situ techniques to accurately estimate growth over a short temporal scale. To evaluate the use of nucleic acid ratios (R:D) for juvenile blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), I developed and validated an R:D-based index of growth in the laboratory. R:D based growth estimates of crabs collected in the Patuxent River, MD indicated growth ranged from 0.8-25.9 (mg·g-1·d-1). Overall, there was no effect of size on growth, whereas there was a weak, but significant effect of date. These data provide insight into patterns of habitat-specific growth. These results highlight the complexity of the biological and physical factors which regulate growth of juvenile blue crabs in the field.

Stomach fullness modulates prey size choice in the frillfin goby, Bathygobius soporator

Behaviours related to foraging and feeding in predator-prey systems are fundamental to our understanding of food webs. From the perspective of a predator, the selection of prey size depends upon a number of factors including prey vulnerability, prey size, and the predator's motivation to eat. Thus, feeding motivation and prey visual cues are supposed to influence predator decisions and it is predicted that prey selection by visual cues is modulated by the predator's stomach fullness prior to attacking a prey. This study was conducted using an animal model from the rocky shores ecosystem, a predatory fish, the frillfin goby Bathygobius soporator, and a benthic prey, the mottled shore crab Pachygrapsus transversus. Our results demonstrate that frillfin gables are capable of visually evaluating prey size and that the size evaluation process is modulated by the level of stomach fullness. Predators with an empty stomach (0% fullness) attacked prey that was larger than the predicted optimal size. Partially satiated predators (50% stomach fullness) selected prey close to the optimal size, while fully satiated predators (100% stomach fullness) showed no preference for size. This finding indicates an integrative response of the predator that depends on the input of both internal and external sensory information when choosing prey. Predator perceptions of visual cues (prey size) and stomach fullness modulate foraging decisions. As a result, a flexible feeding behaviour emerges, evidencing a clearly adaptive response in line with optimal foraging theory predictions. (C) 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Detecting Free Riders in Collective Brands through a Hierarchical Choice Process

Free-riding behaviors exist in tourism and they should be analyzed from a comprehensive perspective; while the literature has mainly focused on free riders operating in a destination, the destinations themselves might also free ride when they are under the umbrella of a collective brand. The objective of this article is to detect potential free-riding destinations by estimating the contribution of the different individual destinations to their collective brands, from the point of view of consumer perception. We argue that these individual contributions can be better understood by reflecting the various stages that tourists follow to reach their final decision. A hierarchical choice process is proposed in which the following choices are nested (not independent): “whether to buy,” “what collective brand to buy,” and “what individual brand to buy.” A Mixed Logit model confirms this sequence, which permits estimation of individual contributions and detection of free riders.

Life-cycle portfolio choice with liquid and illiquid financial assets

Traditionally, quantitative models that have studied households׳ portfolio choices have focused exclusively on the different risk properties of alternative financial assets. We introduce differences in liquidity across assets in the standard life-cycle model of portfolio choice. More precisely, in our model, stocks are subject to transaction costs, as considered in recent macroliterature. We show that when these costs are calibrated to match the observed infrequency of households׳ trading, the model is able to generate patterns of portfolio stock allocation over age and wealth that are constant or moderately increasing, thus more in line with the existing empirical evidence.

A discrete-time queueing system with feedback and optional service

Queueing systems constitute a central tool in modeling and performance analysis. These types of systems are in our everyday life activities, and the theory of queueing systems was developed to provide models for forecasting behaviors of systems subject to random demand. The practical and useful applications of the discrete-time queues make the researchers to con- tinue making an e ort in analyzing this type of models. Thus the present contribution relates to a discrete-time Geo/G/1 queue in which some messages may need a second service time in addition to the rst essential service. In day-to-day life, there are numerous examples of queueing situations in general, for example, in manufacturing processes, telecommunication, home automation, etc, but in this paper a particular application is the use of video surveil- lance with intrusion recognition where all the arriving messages require the main service and only some may require the subsidiary service provided by the server with di erent types of strategies. We carry out a thorough study of the model, deriving analytical results for the stationary distribution. The generating functions of the number of messages in the queue and in the system are obtained. The generating functions of the busy period as well as the sojourn times of a message in the server, the queue and the system are also provided.

EFFECTIVE FUNCTION CHOICE IN THE R SCRIPTING LANGUAGE

This project examines the current available work on the explicit and implicit parallelization of the R scripting language and reports on experimental findings for the development of a model for predicting effective points for automatic parallelization to be performed, based upon input data sizes and function complexity. After finding or creating a series of custom benchmarks, an interval based on data size and time complexity where replacement becomes a viable option was found; specifically between O(N) and O(N3) exclusive. As data size increases, the benefits of parallel processing become more apparent and a point is reached where those benefits outweigh the costs in memory transfer time. Based on our observations, this point can be predicted with a fair amount of accuracy using regression on a sample of approximately ten data sizes spread evenly between a system determined minimum and maximum size.

Ensemble Stream Model for Data-Cleaning in Sensor Networks

Ensemble Stream Modeling and Data-cleaning are sensor information processing systems have different training and testing methods by which their goals are cross-validated. This research examines a mechanism, which seeks to extract novel patterns by generating ensembles from data. The main goal of label-less stream processing is to process the sensed events to eliminate the noises that are uncorrelated, and choose the most likely model without over fitting thus obtaining higher model confidence. Higher quality streams can be realized by combining many short streams into an ensemble which has the desired quality. The framework for the investigation is an existing data mining tool. First, to accommodate feature extraction such as a bush or natural forest-fire event we make an assumption of the burnt area (BA*), sensed ground truth as our target variable obtained from logs. Even though this is an obvious model choice the results are disappointing. The reasons for this are two: One, the histogram of fire activity is highly skewed. Two, the measured sensor parameters are highly correlated. Since using non descriptive features does not yield good results, we resort to temporal features. By doing so we carefully eliminate the averaging effects; the resulting histogram is more satisfactory and conceptual knowledge is learned from sensor streams. Second is the process of feature induction by cross-validating attributes with single or multi-target variables to minimize training error. We use F-measure score, which combines precision and accuracy to determine the false alarm rate of fire events. The multi-target data-cleaning trees use information purity of the target leaf-nodes to learn higher order features. A sensitive variance measure such as f-test is performed during each node’s split to select the best attribute. Ensemble stream model approach proved to improve when using complicated features with a simpler tree classifier. The ensemble framework for data-cleaning and the enhancements to quantify quality of fitness (30% spatial, 10% temporal, and 90% mobility reduction) of sensor led to the formation of streams for sensor-enabled applications. Which further motivates the novelty of stream quality labeling and its importance in solving vast amounts of real-time mobile streams generated today.

Contrast and lustre:a model that accounts for eleven different forms of contrast discrimination in binocular vision

Our goal here is a more complete understanding of how information about luminance contrast is encoded and used by the binocular visual system. In two-interval forced-choice experiments we assessed observers' ability to discriminate changes in contrast that could be an increase or decrease of contrast in one or both eyes, or an increase in one eye coupled with a decrease in the other (termed IncDec). The base or pedestal contrasts were either in-phase or out-of-phase in the two eyes. The opposed changes in the IncDec condition did not cancel each other out, implying that along with binocular summation, information is also available from mechanisms that do not sum the two eyes' inputs. These might be monocular mechanisms. With a binocular pedestal, monocular increments of contrast were much easier to see than monocular decrements. These findings suggest that there are separate binocular (B) and monocular (L,R) channels, but only the largest of the three responses, max(L,B,R), is available to perception and decision. Results from contrast discrimination and contrast matching tasks were described very accurately by this model. Stimuli, data, and model responses can all be visualized in a common binocular contrast space, allowing a more direct comparison between models and data. Some results with out-of-phase pedestals were not accounted for by the max model of contrast coding, but were well explained by an extended model in which gratings of opposite polarity create the sensation of lustre. Observers can discriminate changes in lustre alongside changes in contrast.

‘‘Model age-based” and ‘‘copy when uncertain” biases in children’s social learning of a novel task

Theoretical models of social learning predict that individuals can benefit from using strategies that specify when and whom to copy. Here the interaction of two social learning strategies, model age-based biased copying and copy when uncertain, was investigated. Uncertainty was created via a systematic manipulation of demonstration efficacy (completeness) and efficiency (causal relevance of some actions). The participants, 4- to 6-year-old children (N = 140), viewed both an adult model and a child model, each of whom used a different tool on a novel task. They did so in a complete condition, a near-complete condition, a partial demonstration condition, or a no-demonstration condition. Half of the demonstrations in each condition incorporated causally irrelevant actions by the models. Social transmission was assessed by first responses but also through children’s continued fidelity, the hallmark of social traditions. Results revealed a bias to copy the child model both on first response and in continued interactions. Demonstration efficacy and efficiency did not affect choice of model at first response but did influence solution exploration across trials, with demonstrations containing causally irrelevant actions decreasing exploration of alternative methods. These results imply that uncertain environments can result in canalized social learning from specific classes of mode

Simulation by discrete mass modeling of offshore wind turbine system with DC link

This paper presents an integrated model for an offshore wind turbine taking into consideration a contribution for the marine wave and wind speed with perturbations influences on the power quality of current injected into the electric grid. The paper deals with the simulation of one floating offshore wind turbine equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator, and a two-level converter connected to an onshore electric grid. The use of discrete mass modeling is accessed in order to reveal by computing the total harmonic distortion on how the perturbations of the captured energy are attenuated at the electric grid injection point. Two torque actions are considered for the three-mass modeling, the aerodynamic on the flexible part and on the rigid part of the blades. Also, a torque due to the influence of marine waves in deep water is considered. Proportional integral fractional-order control supports the control strategy. A comparison between the drive train models is presented.

Offshore Wind Energy System with DC Transmission Discrete Mass: Modeling and Simulation

This paper presents an integrated model for an offshore wind energy system taking into consideration a contribution for the marine wave and wind speed with perturbations influences on the power quality of current injected into the electric grid. The paper deals with the simulation of one floating offshore wind turbine equipped with a PMSG and a two-level converter connected to an onshore electric grid. The use of discrete mass modeling is accessed in order to reveal by computing the THD on how the perturbations of the captured energy are attenuated at the electric grid injection point. Two torque actions are considered for the three-mass modeling, the aerodynamic on the flexible part and on the rigid part of the blades. Also, a torque due to the influence of marine waves in deep water is considered. PI fractional-order control supports the control strategy. A comparison between the drive train models is presented.