Experience of Development and Application of Expert Systems for Economic Macroparameters Forecasting and Operation

In this article there are considered problems of forecasting economical macroparameters, and in the first place, index of inflation. Concept of development of synthetical forecasting methods which use directly specified expert information as well as calculation result on the basis of objective economical and mathematical models for forecasting separate “slowly changeable parameters” are offered. This article discusses problems of macroparameters operation on the basis of analysis of received prognostic magnitude.

A multi-modular second life hybrid battery energy storage system for utility grid applications

The modern grid system or the smart grid is likely to be populated with multiple distributed energy sources, e.g. wind power, PV power, Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV). It will also include a variety of linear and nonlinear loads. The intermittent nature of renewable energies like PV, wind turbine and increased penetration of Electric Vehicle (EV) makes the stable operation of utility grid system challenging. In order to ensure a stable operation of the utility grid system and to support smart grid functionalities such as, fault ride-through, frequency response, reactive power support, and mitigation of power quality issues, an energy storage system (ESS) could play an important role. A fast acting bidirectional energy storage system which can rapidly provide and absorb power and/or VARs for a sufficient time is a potentially valuable tool to support this functionality. Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are one of a range suitable energy storage system because it can provide and absorb power for sufficient time as well as able to respond reasonably fast. Conventional BESS already exist on the grid system are made up primarily of new batteries. The cost of these batteries can be high which makes most BESS an expensive solution. In order to assist moving towards a low carbon economy and to reduce battery cost this work aims to research the opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their primary use in low and ultra-low carbon vehicles (EV/HEV) on the electricity grid system. This research aims to develop a new generation of second life battery energy storage systems (SLBESS) which could interface to the low/medium voltage network to provide necessary grid support in a reliable and in cost-effective manner. The reliability/performance of these batteries is not clear, but is almost certainly worse than a new battery. Manufacturers indicate that a mixture of gradual degradation and sudden failure are both possible and failure mechanisms are likely to be related to how hard the batteries were driven inside the vehicle. There are several figures from a number of sources including the DECC (Department of Energy and Climate Control) and Arup and Cenex reports indicate anything from 70,000 to 2.6 million electric and hybrid vehicles on the road by 2020. Once the vehicle battery has degraded to around 70-80% of its capacity it is considered to be at the end of its first life application. This leaves capacity available for a second life at a much cheaper cost than a new BESS Assuming a battery capability of around 5-18kWhr (MHEV 5kWh - BEV 18kWh battery) and approximate 10 year life span, this equates to a projection of battery storage capability available for second life of >1GWhrs by 2025. Moreover, each vehicle manufacturer has different specifications for battery chemistry, number and arrangement of battery cells, capacity, voltage, size etc. To enable research and investment in this area and to maximize the remaining life of these batteries, one of the design challenges is to combine these hybrid batteries into a grid-tie converter where their different performance characteristics, and parameter variation can be catered for and a hot swapping mechanism is available so that as a battery ends it second life, it can be replaced without affecting the overall system operation. This integration of either single types of batteries with vastly different performance capability or a hybrid battery system to a grid-tie 3 energy storage system is different to currently existing work on battery energy storage systems (BESS) which deals with a single type of battery with common characteristics. This thesis addresses and solves the power electronic design challenges in integrating second life hybrid batteries into a grid-tie energy storage unit for the first time. This study details a suitable multi-modular power electronic converter and its various switching strategies which can integrate widely different batteries to a grid-tie inverter irrespective of their characteristics, voltage levels and reliability. The proposed converter provides a high efficiency, enhanced control flexibility and has the capability to operate in different operational modes from the input to output. Designing an appropriate control system for this kind of hybrid battery storage system is also important because of the variation of battery types, differences in characteristics and different levels of degradations. This thesis proposes a generalised distributed power sharing strategy based on weighting function aims to optimally use a set of hybrid batteries according to their relative characteristics while providing the necessary grid support by distributing the power between the batteries. The strategy is adaptive in nature and varies as the individual battery characteristics change in real time as a result of degradation for example. A suitable bidirectional distributed control strategy or a module independent control technique has been developed corresponding to each mode of operation of the proposed modular converter. Stability is an important consideration in control of all power converters and as such this thesis investigates the control stability of the multi-modular converter in detailed. Many controllers use PI/PID based techniques with fixed control parameters. However, this is not found to be suitable from a stability point-of-view. Issues of control stability using this controller type under one of the operating modes has led to the development of an alternative adaptive and nonlinear Lyapunov based control for the modular power converter. Finally, a detailed simulation and experimental validation of the proposed power converter operation, power sharing strategy, proposed control structures and control stability issue have been undertaken using a grid connected laboratory based multi-modular hybrid battery energy storage system prototype. The experimental validation has demonstrated the feasibility of this new energy storage system operation for use in future grid applications.

Polarization-independent high-resolution spectral interrogation of FBGs using a BFBG-CCD array for optical sensing applications

Optical fibre strain sensors using Fibre Bragg Gratings (FBGs) are poised to play a major role in structural health monitoring in a variety of application from aerospace to civil engineering. At the heart of technology is the optoelectronic instrumentation required to convert optical signals into measurands. Users are demanding compact, lightweight, rugged and low cost solutions. This paper describes development of a new device based on a blazed FBG and CCD array that can potentially meet the above demands. We have shown that this very low cost technique may be used to interrogate a WDM array of sensor gratings with highly accurate and highly repeatable results unaffected by the polarisation state of the radiation. In this paper, we present results showing that sensors may be interrogated with an RMS error of 1.7pm, drift below 0.12pm and dynamic range of up to 65nm.

Development and Implementation of NURBS Models of Quadratic Curves and Surfaces

This article goes into the development of NURBS models of quadratic curves and surfaces. Curves and surfaces which could be represented by one general equation (one for the curves and one for the surfaces) are addressed. The research examines the curves: ellipse, parabola and hyperbola, the surfaces: ellipsoid, paraboloid, hyperboloid, double hyperboloid, hyperbolic paraboloid and cone, and the cylinders: elliptic, parabolic and hyperbolic. Many real objects which have to be modeled in 3D applications possess specific features. Because of this these geometric objects have been chosen. Using the NURBS models presented here, specialized software modules (plug-ins) have been developed for a 3D graphic system. An analysis of their implementation and the primitives they create has been performed.

Development, Annotation and Protection of Digital Archive “Bulgarian Folklore Heritage”

The key to prosperity in today's world is access to digital content and skills to create new content. Investigations of folklore artifacts is the topic of this article, presenting research related to the national program „Knowledge Technologies for Creation of Digital Presentation and Significant Repositories of Folklore Heritage” (FolkKnow). FolkKnow aims to build a digital multimedia archive "Bulgarian Folklore Heritage” (BFH) and virtual information portal with folk media library of digitized multimedia objects from a selected collection of the fund of Institute of Ethnology and Folklore Studies with Ethnographic Museum (IEFSEM) of the Bulgarian Academy of Science (BAS). The realization of the project FolkKnow gives opportunity for wide social applications of the multimedia collections, for the purposes of Interactive distance learning/self-learning, research activities in the field of Bulgarian traditional culture and for the cultural and ethno-tourism. We study, analyze and implement techniques and methods for digitization of multimedia objects and their annotation. In the paper are discussed specifics approaches used to building and protect a digital archive with multimedia content. Tasks can be systematized in the following guidelines: * Digitization of the selected samples * Analysis of the objects in order to determine the metadata of selected artifacts from selected collections and problem areas * Digital multimedia archive * Socially-oriented applications and virtual exhibitions artery * Frequency dictionary tool for texts with folklore themes * A method of modern technologies of protecting intellectual property and copyrights on digital content developed for use in digital exposures.

A micro industry with closed energy and water cycles for sustainable rural development

Sustainable development requires combining economic viability with energy and environment conservation and ensuring social benefits. It is conceptualized that for designing a micro industry for sustainable rural industrialization, all these aspects should be integrated right up front. The concept includes; (a) utilization of local produce for value addition in a cluster of villages and enhancing income of the target population; (b) use of renewable energy and total utilization of energy generated by co and trigeneration (combining electric power production with heat utilization for heating and cooling); (c) conservation of water and complete recycling of effluents; (d) total utilization of all wastes for achieving closure towards a zero waste system. Enhanced economic viability and sustainability is achieved by integration of appropriate technologies into the industrial complex. To prove the concept, a model Micro Industrial Complex (MIC) has been set up in a semi arid desert region in Rajasthan, India at village Malunga in Jodhpur district. A biomass powered boiler and steam turbine system is used to generate 100-200 KVA of electric power and high energy steam for heating and cooling processes downstream. The unique feature of the equipment is a 100-150 kW back-pressure steam turbine, utilizing 3-4 tph (tonnes per hour) steam, developed by M/s IB Turbo. The biomass boiler raises steam at about 20 barg 3 tph, which is passed through a turbine to yield about 150 kW of electrical power. The steam let out at a back pressure of 1-3 barg has high exergy and this is passed on as thermal energy (about 2 MW), for use in various applications depending on the local produce and resources. The biomass fuel requirement for the boiler is 0.5-0.75 tph depending on its calorific value. In the current model, the electricity produced is used for running an oil expeller to extract castor oil and the castor cake is used as fuel in the boiler. The steam is used in a Multi Effect Distillation (MED) unit for drinking water production and in a Vapour Absorption Machine (VAM) for cooling, for banana ripening application. Additional steam is available for extraction of herbs such as mint and processing local vegetables. In this paper, we discuss the financial and economic viability of the system and show how the energy, water and materials are completely recycled and how the benefits are directed to the weaker sections of the community.

Trends in Digital Cultural Heritage Management and Applications

We present some recent trends in the field of digital cultural heritage management and applications including digital cultural data curation, interoperability, open linked data publishing, crowd sourcing, visualization, platforms for digital cultural heritage, and applications. We present some examples from research and development projects of MUSIC/TUC in those areas.

Functional carbon nanotubes for photonic applications

Carbon nanomaterials are an active frontier of research in current nanotechnology. Single wall Carbon Nanotube (SWNT) is a unique material which has already found several applications in photonics, electronics, sensors and drug delivery. This thesis presents a summary of the author’s research on functionalisation of SWNTs, a study of their optical properties, and potential for an application in laser physics. The first significant result is a breakthrough in controlling the size of SWNT bundles by varying the salt concentrations in N-methyl 2-pyrrolidone (NMP) through a salting out effect. The addition of Sodium iodide leads to self-assembly of CNTs into recognizable bundles. Furthermore, a stable dispersion can be made via addition polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) polymer to SWNTs-NMP dispersion, which indicates a promising direction for SWNT bundle engineering in organic solvents. The second set of experiments are concerned with enhancement of photoluminescence (PL), through the formation of novel macromolecular complexes of SWNTs with polymethine dyes with emission from enhanced nanotubes in the range of dye excitation. The effect appears to originate from exciton energy transfer within the solution. Thirdly, SWNT base-saturable absorbers (SA) were developed and applied to mode locking of fibre lasers. SWNT-based SAs were applied in both composite and liquid dispersion forms and achieved stable ultrashort generation at 1000nm, 1550nm, and 1800 nm for Ytterbium, Erbium and Thulium-doped fibre laser respectively. The work presented here demonstrates several innovative approaches for development of rapid functionalised SWNT-based dispersions and composites with potential for application in various photonic devices at low cost.

A simulation conceptual modelling procedure for SCM applications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to outline a seven-phase simulation conceptual modelling procedure that incorporates existing practice and embeds a process reference model (i.e. SCOR). Design/methodology/approach – An extensive review of the simulation and SCM literature identifies a set of requirements for a domain-specific conceptual modelling procedure. The associated design issues for each requirement are discussed and the utility of SCOR in the process of conceptual modelling is demonstrated using two development cases. Ten key concepts are synthesised and aligned to a general process for conceptual modelling. Further work is outlined to detail, refine and test the procedure with different process reference models in different industrial contexts. Findings - Simulation conceptual modelling is often regarded as the most important yet least understood aspect of a simulation project (Robinson, 2008a). Even today, there has been little research development into guidelines to aid in the creation of a conceptual model. Design issues are discussed for building an ‘effective’ conceptual model and the domain-specific requirements for modelling supply chains are addressed. The ten key concepts are incorporated to aid in describing the supply chain problem (i.e. components and relationships that need to be included in the model), model content (i.e. rules for determining the simplest model boundary and level of detail to implement the model) and model validation. Originality/value – Paper addresses Robinson (2008a) call for research in defining and developing new approaches for conceptual modelling and Manuj et al., (2009) discussion on improving the rigour of simulation studies in SCM. It is expected that more detailed guidelines will yield benefits to both expert (i.e. avert typical modelling failures) and novice modellers (i.e. guided practice; less reliance on hopeful intuition)

Correlations between garden design plant applications and climate change

Possible effects of climate change means great challenges to landscape design professionals in Hungary. Our climate will shift towards the Mediterranean and we have to prepare for this with among others, choosing correctly the plants to be planted. Teaching garden design dendrology has not recognized yet the necessity and urgency of this matter. Quick measures are required due to the long life-time and slow development of woody taxons. This paper presents the double relationship between landscape design and climate change emphasizing the outdoor architectural methods of adjustment. Such techniques recognized abroad are presented like precipitation drainage by vegetation and extensive green roof. Finally the effects of climate change on ornamental plants application are presented together with the associated project started at the Corvinus University of Budapest in 2010.

Ionized cluster beam deposition: Modeling, cluster size measurement and applications

Clusters are aggregations of atoms or molecules, generally intermediate in size between individual atoms and aggregates that are large enough to be called bulk matter. Clusters can also be called nanoparticles, because their size is on the order of nanometers or tens of nanometers. A new field has begun to take shape called nanostructured materials which takes advantage of these atom clusters. The ultra-small size of building blocks leads to dramatically different properties and it is anticipated that such atomically engineered materials will be able to be tailored to perform as no previous material could.^ The idea of ionized cluster beam (ICB) thin film deposition technique was first proposed by Takagi in 1972. It was based upon using a supersonic jet source to produce, ionize and accelerate beams of atomic clusters onto substrates in a vacuum environment. Conditions for formation of cluster beams suitable for thin film deposition have only recently been established following twenty years of effort. Zinc clusters over 1,000 atoms in average size have been synthesized both in our lab and that of Gspann. More recently, other methods of synthesizing clusters and nanoparticles, using different types of cluster sources, have come under development.^ In this work, we studied different aspects of nanoparticle beams. The work includes refinement of a model of the cluster formation mechanism, development of a new real-time, in situ cluster size measurement method, and study of the use of ICB in the fabrication of semiconductor devices.^ The formation process of the vaporized-metal cluster beam was simulated and investigated using classical nucleation theory and one dimensional gas flow equations. Zinc cluster sizes predicted at the nozzle exit are in good quantitative agreement with experimental results in our laboratory.^ A novel in situ real-time mass, energy and velocity measurement apparatus has been designed, built and tested. This small size time-of-flight mass spectrometer is suitable to be used in our cluster deposition systems and does not suffer from problems related to other methods of cluster size measurement like: requirement for specialized ionizing lasers, inductive electrical or electromagnetic coupling, dependency on the assumption of homogeneous nucleation, limits on the size measurement and non real-time capability. Measured ion energies using the electrostatic energy analyzer are in good accordance with values obtained from computer simulation. The velocity (v) is measured by pulsing the cluster beam and measuring the time of delay between the pulse and analyzer output current. The mass of a particle is calculated from m = (2E/v$\sp2).$ The error in the measured value of background gas mass is on the order of 28% of the mass of one N$\sb2$ molecule which is negligible for the measurement of large size clusters. This resolution in cluster size measurement is very acceptable for our purposes.^ Selective area deposition onto conducting patterns overlying insulating substrates was demonstrated using intense, fully-ionized cluster beams. Parameters influencing the selectivity are ion energy, repelling voltage, the ratio of the conductor to insulator dimension, and substrate thickness. ^

Engineering access control for distributed enterprise applications

Access control (AC) is a necessary defense against a large variety of security attacks on the resources of distributed enterprise applications. However, to be effective, AC in some application domains has to be fine-grain, support the use of application-specific factors in authorization decisions, as well as consistently and reliably enforce organization-wide authorization policies across enterprise applications. Because the existing middleware technologies do not provide a complete solution, application developers resort to embedding AC functionality in application systems. This coupling of AC functionality with application logic causes significant problems including tremendously difficult, costly and error prone development, integration, and overall ownership of application software. The way AC for application systems is engineered needs to be changed. ^ In this dissertation, we propose an architectural approach for engineering AC mechanisms to address the above problems. First, we develop a framework for implementing the role-based access control (RBAC) model using AC mechanisms provided by CORBA Security. For those application domains where the granularity of CORBA controls and the expressiveness of RBAC model suffice, our framework addresses the stated problem. ^ In the second and main part of our approach, we propose an architecture for an authorization service, RAD, to address the problem of controlling access to distributed application resources, when the granularity and support for complex policies by middleware AC mechanisms are inadequate. Applying this architecture, we developed a CORBA-based application authorization service (CAAS). Using CAAS, we studied the main properties of the architecture and showed how they can be substantiated by employing CORBA and Java technologies. Our approach enables a wide-ranging solution for controlling the resources of distributed enterprise applications. ^

Semantic distributed database management with applications to the Internet dissemination of environmental data

The research presented in this dissertation is comprised of several parts which jointly attain the goal of Semantic Distributed Database Management with Applications to Internet Dissemination of Environmental Data. ^ Part of the research into more effective and efficient data management has been pursued through enhancements to the Semantic Binary Object-Oriented database (Sem-ODB) such as more effective load balancing techniques for the database engine, and the use of Sem-ODB as a tool for integrating structured and unstructured heterogeneous data sources. Another part of the research in data management has pursued methods for optimizing queries in distributed databases through the intelligent use of network bandwidth; this has applications in networks that provide varying levels of Quality of Service or throughput. ^ The application of the Semantic Binary database model as a tool for relational database modeling has also been pursued. This has resulted in database applications that are used by researchers at the Everglades National Park to store environmental data and to remotely-sensed imagery. ^ The areas of research described above have contributed to the creation TerraFly, which provides for the dissemination of geospatial data via the Internet. TerraFly research presented herein ranges from the development of TerraFly's back-end database and interfaces, through the features that are presented to the public (such as the ability to provide autopilot scripts and on-demand data about a point), to applications of TerraFly in the areas of hazard mitigation, recreation, and aviation. ^

Development of prediction models for freeway incident durations using data mining techniques

The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^

Algebraic theory of minimal nondeterministic finite automata with applications

Since the 1950s, the theory of deterministic and nondeterministic finite automata (DFAs and NFAs, respectively) has been a cornerstone of theoretical computer science. In this dissertation, our main object of study is minimal NFAs. In contrast with minimal DFAs, minimal NFAs are computationally challenging: first, there can be more than one minimal NFA recognizing a given language; second, the problem of converting an NFA to a minimal equivalent NFA is NP-hard, even for NFAs over a unary alphabet. Our study is based on the development of two main theories, inductive bases and partials, which in combination form the foundation for an incremental algorithm, ibas, to find minimal NFAs. An inductive basis is a collection of languages with the property that it can generate (through union) each of the left quotients of its elements. We prove a fundamental characterization theorem which says that a language can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element inductive basis. A partial is an incompletely-specified language. We say that an NFA recognizes a partial if its language extends the partial, meaning that the NFA’s behavior is unconstrained on unspecified strings; it follows that a minimal NFA for a partial is also minimal for its language. We therefore direct our attention to minimal NFAs recognizing a given partial. Combining inductive bases and partials, we generalize our characterization theorem, showing that a partial can be recognized by an n-state NFA if and only if it can be generated by an n-element partial inductive basis. We apply our theory to develop and implement ibas, an incremental algorithm that finds minimal partial inductive bases generating a given partial. In the case of unary languages, ibas can often find minimal NFAs of up to 10 states in about an hour of computing time; with brute-force search this would require many trillions of years.