Learning from failure - rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study).

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. METHODS/DESIGN: Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs.We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. DISCUSSION: Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

Concrete Pavement Mixture Design and Analysis (MDA): Factors Influencing Drying Shrinkage, TPF-5(205), 2014

This literature review focuses on factors influencing drying shrinkage of concrete. Although the factors are normally interrelated, they can be categorized into three groups: paste quantity, paste quality, and other factors.

Subsidy design: wealth versus benefits

A government would like to subsidize an indivisible good. Consumers' valuations of the good vary according to their wealth and benefits from the good. A subsidy scheme may be based on consumers' wealth or benefit information. We translate a wealth-based policy to a benefit-based policy, and vice versa, and give a necessary and sufficient condition for the pair of policies to implement the same assignment: consumers choose to purchase the good under the wealth-based policy if and only if they choose to do so under the translated benefit-based policy. General taxation allows equivalent policies to require the same budget.

A design science approach to support the assessment of disruptive technology : the Swiss mobile payment case

Abstract In this thesis we present the design of a systematic integrated computer-based approach for detecting potential disruptions from an industry perspective. Following the design science paradigm, we iteratively develop several multi-actor multi-criteria artifacts dedicated to environment scanning. The contributions of this thesis are both theoretical and practical. We demonstrate the successful use of multi-criteria decision-making methods for technology foresight. Furthermore, we illustrate the design of our artifacts using build and-evaluate loops supported with a field study of the Swiss mobile payment industry. To increase the relevance of this study, we systematically interview key Swiss experts for each design iteration. As a result, our research provides a realistic picture of the current situation in the Swiss mobile payment market and reveals previously undiscovered weak signals for future trends. Finally, we suggest a generic design process for environment scanning.

Computer-Aided Business Model Design

There is a lack of dedicated tools for business model design at a strategic level. However, in today's economic world the need to be able to quickly reinvent a company's business model is essential to stay competitive. This research focused on identifying the functionalities that are necessary in a computer-aided design (CAD) tool for the design of business models in a strategic context. Using design science research methodology a series of techniques and prototypes have been designed and evaluated to offer solutions to the problem. The work is a collection of articles which can be grouped into three parts: First establishing the context of how the Business Model Canvas (BMC) is used to design business models and explore the way in which CAD can contribute to the design activity. The second part extends on this by proposing new technics and tools which support elicitation, evaluation (assessment) and evolution of business models design with CAD. This includes features such as multi-color tagging to easily connect elements, rules to validate coherence of business models and features that are adapted to the correct business model proficiency level of its users. A new way to describe and visualize multiple versions of a business model and thereby help in addressing the business model as a dynamic object was also researched. The third part explores extensions to the business model canvas such as an intermediary model which helps IT alignment by connecting business model and enterprise architecture. And a business model pattern for privacy in a mobile environment, using privacy as a key value proposition. The prototyped techniques and proposition for using CAD tools in business model modeling will allow commercial CAD developers to create tools that are better suited to the needs of practitioners.

Lomborg, Vanhanen ja Intelligent Design - kommentti Matti Kamppiselle

Kommentti Matti Kamppisen kirjoitukseen TT -lehdessä 1/2005

Development of Preliminary Load and Resistance Factor Design of Drilled Shafts in Iowa, RB03-012, 2014

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) mandated utilizing the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approach for all new bridges initiated in the United States after October 1, 2007. To achieve part of this goal, a database for Drilled Shaft Foundation Testing (DSHAFT) was developed and reported on by Garder, Ng, Sritharan, and Roling in 2012. DSHAFT is aimed at assimilating high-quality drilled shaft test data from Iowa and the surrounding regions. DSHAFT is currently housed on a project website (http://srg.cce.iastate.edu/dshaft) and contains data for 41 drilled shaft tests. The objective of this research was to utilize the DSHAFT database and develop a regional LRFD procedure for drilled shafts in Iowa with preliminary resistance factors using a probability-based reliability theory. This was done by examining current design and construction practices used by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) as well as recommendations given in the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) LRFD Bridge Design Specifications and the FHWA drilled shaft guidelines. Various analytical methods were used to estimate side resistance and end bearing of drilled shafts in clay, sand, intermediate geomaterial (IGM), and rock. Since most of the load test results obtained from O-cell do not pass the 1-in. top displacement criterion used by the Iowa DOT and the 5% of shaft diameter for top displacement criterion recommended by AASHTO, three improved procedures are proposed to generate and extend equivalent top load-displacement curves that enable the quantification of measured resistances corresponding to the displacement criteria. Using the estimated and measured resistances, regional resistance factors were calibrated following the AASHTO LRFD framework and adjusted to resolve any anomalies observed among the factors. To illustrate the potential and successful use of drilled shafts in Iowa, the design procedures of drilled shaft foundations were demonstrated and the advantages of drilled shafts over driven piles were addressed in two case studies.

Evaluation of clinician-operated sonography and fine-needle aspiration in the assessment of salivary gland tumours.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the combination of ultrasound (US) + fine-needle aspiration (FNA) in the assessment of salivary gland tumours in the hands of the otolaryngologist. DESIGN: A retrospective review of case notes was performed. SETTING: Two university teaching hospitals in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and three patients with a total of 106 focal masses of the salivary glands were included. Clinician-operated US + FNA were the first line of investigation for these lesions. All patients underwent surgical excision of the lesion, which allowed for confirmation of diagnosis by histopathology in 104 lesions and by laboratory testing in two lesions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary--diagnostic accuracy in identifying true salivary gland neoplasms and detecting malignancy. Secondary--predicting an approximate and specific diagnosis in these tumours. RESULTS: The combination of US + FNA achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 99% in identifying and differentiating true salivary gland neoplasms from tumour-like lesions. In detecting malignancy, this combination permitted an accuracy of 98%. An approximate diagnosis was possible in 89%, and a specific diagnosis in 69% of our patients. CONCLUSIONS: Due to economic factors and a high diagnostic accuracy, the combination of US + FNA represents the investigation method of choice for most salivary gland tumours. We suggest that the otolaryngologist be employed in carrying out these procedures, as is already the rule in other medical specialties, while computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging should be reserved to those few lesions, which cannot be delineated completely by sonography.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Ubiquitin Ligases of the N-End Rule Pathway: Assessment of Mutations in UBR1 That Cause the Johanson-Blizzard Syndrome.

Background: Johanson-Blizzard syndrome (JBS; OMIM 243800) is an autosomal recessive disorder that includes congenital exocrine pancreatic insufficiency, facial dysmorphism with the characteristic nasal wing hypoplasia, multiple malformations, and frequent mental retardation. Our previous work has shown that JBS is caused by mutations in human UBR1, which encodes one of the E3 ubiquitin ligases of the N-end rule pathway. The N-end rule relates the regulation of the in vivo half-life of a protein to the identity of its N-terminal residue. One class of degradation signals (degrons) recognized by UBR1 are destabilizing N-terminal residues of protein substrates.Methodology/Principal Findings: Most JBS-causing alterations of UBR1 are nonsense, frameshift or splice-site mutations that abolish UBR1 activity. We report here missense mutations of human UBR1 in patients with milder variants of JBS. These single-residue changes, including a previously reported missense mutation, involve positions in the RING-H2 and UBR domains of UBR1 that are conserved among eukaryotes. Taking advantage of this conservation, we constructed alleles of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae UBR1 that were counterparts of missense JBS-UBR1 alleles. Among these yeast Ubr1 mutants, one of them (H160R) was inactive in yeast-based activity assays, the other one (Q1224E) had a detectable but weak activity, and the third one (V146L) exhibited a decreased but significant activity, in agreement with manifestations of JBS in the corresponding JBS patients.Conclusions/Significance: These results, made possible by modeling defects of a human ubiquitin ligase in its yeast counterpart, verified and confirmed the relevance of specific missense UBR1 alleles to JBS, and suggested that a residual activity of a missense allele is causally associated with milder variants of JBS.

Referral from primary care to a physical activity programme: establishing long-term adherence? A randomized controlled trial. Rationale and study design

Background: Declining physical activity is associated with a rising burden of global disease. There is little evidence about effective ways to increase adherence to physical activity. Therefore, interventions are needed that produce sustained increases in adherence to physical activity and are cost-effective. The purpose is to assess the effectiveness of a primary care physical activity intervention in increasing adherence to physical activity in the general population seen in primary care. Method and design: Randomized controlled trial with systematic random sampling. A total of 424 subjects of both sexes will participate; all will be over the age of 18 with a low level of physical activity (according to the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, IPAQ), self-employed and from 9 Primary Healthcare Centres (PHC). They will volunteer to participate in a physical activity programme during 3 months (24 sessions; 2 sessions a week, 60 minutes per session). Participants from each PHC will be randomly allocated to an intervention (IG) and control group (CG). The following parameters will be assessed pre and post intervention in both groups: (1) health-related quality of life (SF-12), (2) physical activity stage of change (Prochaska's stages of change), (3) level of physical activity (IPAQ-short version), (4) change in perception of health (vignettes from the Cooperative World Organization of National Colleges, Academies, and Academic Associations of Family Physicians, COOP/WONCA), (5) level of social support for the physical activity practice (Social Support for Physical Activity Scale, SSPAS), and (6) control based on analysis (HDL, LDL and glycated haemoglobin).Participants' frequency of visits to the PHC will be registered over the six months before and after the programme. There will be a follow up in a face to face interview three, six and twelve months after the programme, with the reduced version of IPAQ, SF-12, SSPAS, and Prochaska's stages. Discussion: The pilot study showed the effectiveness of an enhanced low-cost, evidence-based intervention in increased physical activity and improved social support. If successful in demonstrating long-term improvements, this randomised controlled trial will be the first sustainable physical activity intervention based in primary care in our country to demonstrate longterm adherence to physical activity. Trial Registration: A service of the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Developed by the National Library of Medicine. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT00714831.

El principio del Universal Design. Concepto y desarrollos en la enseñanza superior

Los principios, las prácticas y la investigación sobre diseño universal han sidoimplantados progresivamente en diferentes ámbitos, respecto al diseño y la preparación de entornos para la atención a las necesidades de las personas con discapacidad. En el contexto internacional, este desarrollo ha estado vinculado al avance en derechos sobre igualdad de oportunidades. En el contexto legislativo español, en la Ley 51/2003 se introducen definiciones sobre «accesibilidad universal» y «diseño para todos», con lo que se genera un marco que posibilita el análisis de fuentes conceptuales y de aplicación en nuestro contexto, de las aportaciones del diseño universal, así como su consideración para la fundamentación de prácticas de innovación e investigación en nuestros ámbitos universitarios. En este trabajo, a partir de una amplia revisión de fuentes y aportaciones de gran trayectoria en este campo, se presentan y analizan distintos enfoques, a través de los cuales se están desarrollando y aplicando prácticas de diseño universal en el ámbito de la enseñanza universitaria, y se plantean sus implicaciones educativas. Este análisis permite concluir que las aplicaciones del diseño universal parecen más prometedoras para el progreso hacia metas de inclusión en el entorno universitario que una perspectiva de «adaptación curricular»; aunque se pone de manifiesto la necesidad de que la investigación que se desarrolle en nuestros contextos aporte pruebas y elementos que favorezcan su implementa- ción. Aplicar prácticas docentes y de planificación en la enseñanza universitaria con bases en el diseño universal podría contribuir a superar, eliminar o evitar en un futuro barreras en el aprendizaje, no solo limitadoras del progreso de las personas con discapacidad, sino también del conjunto del alumnado. Asimismo, las conclusiones de este trabajo plantean aplicaciones y estimaciones de nuevas muestras empíricas como puntos de partida para futuras y posibles determinaciones de enfoques conceptuales.

Concrete Pavement Mixture Design and Analysis (MDA): Development and Evaluation of Vibrating Kelly Ball Test (VKelly Test) for the Workability of Concrete, 2015

Due to the low workability of slipform concrete mixtures, the science of rheology is not strictly applicable for such concrete. However, the concept of rheological behavior may still be considered useful. A novel workability test method (Vibrating Kelly Ball or VKelly test) that would quantitatively assess the responsiveness of a dry concrete mixture to vibration, as is desired of a mixture suitable for slipform paving, was developed and evaluated. The objectives of this test method are for it to be cost-effective, portable, and repeatable while reporting the suitability of a mixture for use in slipform paving. The work to evaluate and refine the test was conducted in three phases: 1. Assess whether the VKelly test can signal variations in laboratory mixtures with a range of materials and proportions 2. Run the VKelly test in the field at a number of construction sites 3. Validate the VKelly test results using the Box Test developed at Oklahoma State University for slipform paving concrete The data collected to date indicate that the VKelly test appears to be suitable for assessing a mixture’s response to vibration (workability) with a low multiple operator variability. A unique parameter, VKelly Index, is introduced and defined that seems to indicate that a mixture is suitable for slipform paving when it falls in the range of 0.8 to 1.2 in./√s.

Concrete Pavement Mixture Design and Analysis (MDA): An Innovative Approach To Proportioning Concrete Mixtures, TPF-5(205), 2015

Mixture proportioning is routinely a matter of using a recipe based on a previously produced concrete, rather than adjusting the proportions based on the needs of the mixture and the locally available materials. As budgets grow tighter and increasing attention is being paid to sustainability metrics, greater attention is beginning to be focused on making mixtures that are more efficient in their usage of materials yet do not compromise engineering performance. Therefore, a performance-based mixture proportioning method is needed to provide the desired concrete properties for a given project specification. The proposed method should be user friendly, easy to apply in practice, and flexible in terms of allowing a wide range of material selection. The objective of this study is to further develop an innovative performance-based mixture proportioning method by analyzing the relationships between the selected mix characteristics and their corresponding effects on tested properties. The proposed method will provide step-by-step instructions to guide the selection of required aggregate and paste systems based on the performance requirements. Although the provided guidance in this report is primarily for concrete pavements, the same approach can be applied to other concrete applications as well.