The population dynamical consequences of density-dependence in fungal plant pathogens

Almost all stages of a plant pathogen life cycle are potentially density dependent. At small scales and short time spans appropriate to a single-pathogen individual, density dependence can be extremely strong, mediated both by simple resource use, changes in the host due to defence reactions and signals between fungal individuals. In most cases, the consequences are a rise in reproductive rate as the pathogen becomes rarer, and consequently stabilisation of the population dynamics; however, at very low density reproduction may become inefficient, either because it is co-operative or because heterothallic fungi do not form sexual spores. The consequence will be historically determined distributions. On a medium scale, appropriate for example to several generations of a host plant, the factors already mentioned remain important but specialist natural enemies may also start to affect the dynamics detectably. This could in theory lead to complex (e.g. chaotic) dynamics, but in practice heterogeneity of habitat and host is likely to smooth the extreme relationships and make for more stable, though still very variable, dynamics. On longer temporal and longer spatial scales evolutionary responses by both host and pathogen are likely to become important, producing patterns which ultimately depend on the strength of interactions at smaller scales.

Declining survival rates in a reintroduced population of the Mauritius kestrel: evidence for non-linear density dependence and environmental stochasticity

1. We studied a reintroduced population of the formerly critically endangered Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus Temmink from its inception in 1987 until 2002, by which time the population had attained carrying capacity for the study area. Post-1994 the population received minimal management other than the provision of nestboxes. 2. We analysed data collected on survival (1987-2002) using program MARK to explore the influence of density-dependent and independent processes on survival over the course of the population's development. 3.We found evidence for non-linear, threshold density dependence in juvenile survival rates. Juvenile survival was also strongly influenced by climate, with the temporal distribution of rainfall during the cyclone season being the most influential climatic variable. Adult survival remained constant throughout. 4. Our most parsimonious capture-mark-recapture statistical model, which was constrained by density and climate, explained 75.4% of the temporal variation exhibited in juvenile survival rates over the course of the population's development. 5. This study is an example of how data collected as part of a threatened species recovery programme can be used to explore the role and functional form of natural population regulatory processes. With the improvements in conservation management techniques and the resulting success stories, formerly threatened species offer unique opportunities to further our understanding of the fundamental principles of population ecology.

The addition reaction between silylene and ethyne: further isotope studies, pressure dependence studies, and quantum chemical calculations

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of dideutero-silylene, SiD2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane-d(3), have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with C2H2. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at five temperatures in the range 297-600 K. The second-order rate constants obtained by extrapolation to the high-pressure limits at each temperature fitted the Arrhenius equation log(k(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-10.05 +/- 0.05) + (3.43 +/- 0.36 kJ mol(-1))/RT ln 10. The rate constants were used to obtain a comprehensive set of isotope effects by comparison with earlier obtained rate constants for the reactions of SiH2 with C2H2 and C2D2. Additionally, pressure-dependent rate constants for the reaction of SiH2 with C2H2 in the presence of He (1-100 Tort) were obtained at 300, 399, and 613 K. Quantum chemical (ab initio) calculations of the SiC2H4 reaction system at the G3 level support the initial formation of silirene, which rapidly isomerizes to ethynylsilane as the major pathway. Reversible formation of vinylsilylene is also an important process. The calculations also indicate the involvement of several other intermediates, not previously suggested in the mechanism. RRKM calculations are in semiquantitative agreement with the pressure dependences and isotope effects suggested by the ab initio calculations, but residual discrepancies suggest the possible involvement of the minor reaction channel, SiH2 + C2H2 - SWPO + C2H4. The results are compared and contrasted with previous studies of this reaction system.

Uniformization of affine dependence programs for parallel embedded system design

This paper is concerned with the uniformization of a system of afine recurrence equations. This transformation is used in the design (or compilation) of highly parallel embedded systems (VLSI systolic arrays, signal processing filters, etc.). In this paper, we present and implement an automatic system to achieve uniformization of systems of afine recurrence equations. We unify the results from many earlier papers, develop some theoretical extensions, and then propose effective uniformization algorithms. Our results can be used in any high level synthesis tool based on polyhedral representation of nested loop computations.

Non-testability of equal weights spatial dependence

We show that any invariant test for spatial autocorrelation in a spatial error or spatial lag model with equal weights matrix has power equal to size. This result holds under the assumption of an elliptical distribution. Under Gaussianity, we also show that any test whose power is larger than its size for at least one point in the parameter space must be biased.

Temperature dependence of protein dynamics simulated with three different water models

The effect of variation of the water model on the temperature dependence of protein and hydration water dynamics is examined by performing molecular dynamics simulations of myoglobin with the TIP3P, TIP4P, and TIP5P water models and the CHARMM protein force field at temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The atomic mean-square displacements, solvent reorientational relaxation times, pair angular correlations between surface water molecules, and time-averaged structures of the protein are all found to be similar, and the protein dynamical transition is described almost indistinguishably for the three water potentials. The results provide evidence that for some purposes changing the water model in protein simulations without a loss of accuracy may be possible.

The gas-phase reaction between silylene and 2-butyne: kinetics, isotope studies, pressure dependence studies and quantum chemical calculations

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reactions of silylene, SiH2, and dideutero-silylene, SiD2, generated by laser. ash photolysis of phenylsilane and phenylsilane-d(3), respectively, have been carried out to obtain rate coefficients for their bimolecular reactions with 2-butyne, CH3C CCH3. The reactions were studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas at five temperatures in the range 294-612 K. The second-order rate coefficients, obtained by extrapolation to the high pressure limits at each temperature, fitted the Arrhenius equations where the error limits are single standard deviations: log(k(H)(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-9.67 +/- 0.04) + (1.71 +/- 0.33) kJ mol(-1)/RTln10 log(k(D)(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-9.65 +/- 0.01) + (1.92 +/- 0.13) kJ mol(-1)/RTln10 Additionally, pressure-dependent rate coefficients for the reaction of SiH2 with 2-butyne in the presence of He (1-100 Torr) were obtained at 301, 429 and 613 K. Quantum chemical (ab initio) calculations of the SiC4H8 reaction system at the G3 level support the formation of 2,3-dimethylsilirene [cyclo-SiH2C(CH3)=C(CH3)-] as the sole end product. However, reversible formation of 2,3-dimethylvinylsilylene [CH3CH=C(CH3)SiH] is also an important process. The calculations also indicate the probable involvement of several other intermediates, and possible products. RRKM calculations are in reasonable agreement with the pressure dependences at an enthalpy value for 2,3-dimethylsilirene fairly close to that suggested by the ab initio calculations. The experimental isotope effects deviate significantly from those predicted by RRKM theory. The differences can be explained by an isotopic scrambling mechanism, involving H - D exchange between the hydrogens of the methyl groups and the D-atoms in the ring in 2,3-dimethylsilirene-1,1-d(2). A detailed mechanism involving several intermediate species, which is consistent with the G3 energy surface, is proposed to account for this.

The dependence of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation on surface temperature and relative humidity

A simulation of the earth's clear-sky long-wave radiation budget is used to examine the dependence of clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) on surface temperature and relative humidity. the simulation uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global reanalysed fields to calculate clear-sky OLR over the period from January 1979 to December 1993, thus allowing the seasonal and interannual time-scales to be resolved. the clear-sky OLR is shown to be primarily dependent on temperature changes at high latitudes and on changes in relative humidity at lower latitudes. Regions exhibiting a ‘super-greenhouse’ effect are identified and are explained by considering the changes in the convective regime associated with the Hadley circulation over the seasonal cycle, and with the Walker circulation over the interannual time-scale. the sensitivity of clear-sky OLR to changes in relative humidity diminishes with increasing relative humidity. This is explained by the increasing saturation of the water-vapour absorption bands with increased moisture. By allowing the relative humidity to vary in specified vertical slabs of the troposphere over an interannual time-scale it is shown that changes in humidity in the mid troposphere (400 to 700 hPa) are of most importance in explaining clear-sky OLR variations. Relative humidity variations do not appear to affect the positive thermodynamic water-vapour feedback significantly in response to surface temperature changes.

Crosstalk with insulin and dependence on PI3K/Akt/mTOR rather than MAPK pathways in upregulation of basal growth following long-term oestrogen deprivation in three human breast cancer cell lines

Background: MCF-7, T-47-D, ZR-75-1 human breast cancer cell lines are dependent on oestrogen for growth but can adapt to grow during long-term oestrogen deprivation. This serves as a model for identification of therapeutic targets in endocrine-resistant breast cancer. Methods: An overlooked complication of this model is that it involves more than non-addition of oestrogen, and inadequate attention has been given to separating molecular events associated with each of the culture manipulations. Results: Insulin and oestradiol were shown to protect MCF-7 cells against upregulation of basal growth, demonstrating a crosstalk in the growth adaptation process. Increased phosphorylation of p44/42MAPK and c-Raf reflected removal of insulin from the medium and proliferation of all three cell lines was inhibited to a lesser extent by PD98059 and U0126 following long-term oestrogen/insulin withdrawal, demonstrating a reduced dependence on the MAPK pathway. By contrast, long-term oestrogen/insulin deprivation did not alter levels of phosphorylated Akt and did not alter the dose-response of growth inhibition with LY294002 in any of the three cell lines. The IGF1R inhibitor picropodophyllin inhibited growth of all MCF-7 cells but only in the long-term oestrogen/insulin-deprived cells was this paralleled by reduction in phosphorylated p70S6K, a downstream target of mTOR. Long-term oestrogen/insulin-deprived MCF-7 cells had higher levels of phosphorylated p70S6K and developed increased sensitivity to growth inhibition by rapamycin. Conclusions: The greater sensitivity to growth inhibition by rapamycin in all three cell lines following long-term oestrogen/insulin deprivation suggests rapamycin-based therapies might be more effective in breast cancers with acquired oestrogen resistance. Keywords Akt, breast cancer cells, endocrine resistance, insulin, MAPK, MCF-7 cells, mTOR, oestrogen, oestrogen-deprived, PI3K, picropodophyllin, rapamycin, T-47-D cells, ZR-75-1 cells

Dependence of Indian monsoon rainfall on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea and the impact of coupled model sea surface temperature biases

The Arabian Sea is an important moisture source for Indian monsoon rainfall. The skill of climate models in simulating the monsoon and its variability varies widely, while Arabian Sea cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases are common in coupled models and may therefore influence the monsoon and its sensitivity to climate change. We examine the relationship between monsoon rainfall, moisture fluxes and Arabian Sea SST in observations and climate model simulations. Observational analysis shows strong monsoons depend on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea, however detecting consistent signals with contemporaneous summer SST anomalies is complicated in the observed system by air/sea coupling and large-scale induced variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation feeding back onto the monsoon through development of the Somali Jet. Comparison of HadGEM3 coupled and atmosphere-only configurations suggests coupled model cold SST biases significantly reduce monsoon rainfall. Idealised atmosphere-only experiments show that the weakened monsoon can be mainly attributed to systematic Arabian Sea cold SST biases during summer and their impact on the monsoon-moisture relationship. The impact of large cold SST biases on atmospheric moisture content over the Arabian Sea, and also the subsequent reduced latent heat release over India, dominates over any enhancement in the land-sea temperature gradient and results in changes to the mean state. We hypothesize that a cold base state will result in underestimation of the impact of larger projected Arabian Sea SST changes in future climate, suggesting that Arabian Sea biases should be a clear target for model development.

Integrating spatial dependence into stochastic frontier analysis

An approach to incorporate spatial dependence into stochastic frontier analysis is developed and applied to a sample of 215 dairy farms in England and Wales. A number of alternative specifications for the spatial weight matrix are used to analyse the effect of these on the estimation of spatial dependence. Estimation is conducted using a Bayesian approach and results indicate that spatial dependence is present when explaining technical inefficiency.