Quince 'CPP': new dwarf rootstock for pear trees on organic and high density planting

In Brazil, pear production presents the same incipient situation over the last 15 years, due mostly to low production technology. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate the development, growth and production of the pear tree cultivars Cascatense, Tenra and Hosui grafted on 'CPP' quince rootstock, using 'FT' pear as interstem. This trial was carried out in Guarapuava, State of Paraná, Southern region of Brazil, by five productive cycles. The pear trees were planted in September of 2004, spaced at 1.0 x 4.0 m (2,500 trees ha-1), trained to the modified central leader, on a Four-wire trellis, with drip irrigation and cultivated under organic production system. The following variables were evaluated: sprouting, anthesis, yield, fruit weight, soluble solids content, titratable acidity, pulp firmness, canopy area per plant and per hectare and trunk diameter. The pear tree cv. Tenra was outstanding most of the years for fruit yield, and, consequently, showed the highest accumulated yield over the period (51.6 t ha-1), followed by the cultivars Cascatense (39.7 t ha-1) and Hosui (18.7 t ha-1). All pear cultivars presented suitable physical-chemical characteristics for commercial purposes, with minimal average soluble solids content of 11% at harvest. The maximum canopy area per hectare was attained for cv. Cascatense (3063.2 m²), that was considered insufficient for a high yield. These results suggest the needs for studies with higher density planting and other training systems, searching optimize canopy volume. One of the most limiting factors in the organic pear orchard was the incidence of pear dieback caused by Botriosphaeria dothidea, severe more often in pear trees cv. Hosui.

Spatiotemporal variability in radial growth of trees in the Central Pyrenees: climatic and site influences.

To understand how tree growth has responded to recent climate warming, an understanding of the tree-climate-site complex is necessary. To achieve this, radial growth variability among 204 trees established before 1850 was studied in relation to both climatic and site factors. Seventeen forest stands were sampled in the Spanish Central Pyrenees. Three species were studied: Pinus uncinata, Abies alba, and Pinus sylvestris. For each tree, a ring-width residual chronology was built. All trees cross-dated well, indicating a common influence of the regional climate. For the 1952-1993 period, the radial growth of all species, especially P. uncinata, was positively correlated with warm Novembers during the year before ring formation and warm Mays of the year the annual ring formed. Differences in species-stand elevation modulated the growth-climate associations. Radial growth in P. uncinata at high elevation sites was reduced when May temperatures were colder and May precipitation more abundant. In the 20th century, two contrasting periods in radial growth were observed: one (1900-1949) with low frequency of narrow and wide rings, low mean annual sensitivity, and low common growth variation; and another (1950-1994) with the reverse characteristics. The increased variability in radial growth since the 1950s was observed for all species and sites, which suggests a climatic cause. The low shared variance among tree chronologies during the first half of the 20th century may result from a"relaxation" of the elevation gradient, allowing local site conditions to dominate macroclimatic influence. These temporal trends may be related to the recently reported increase of climatic variability and warmer conditions. This study emphasizes the need to carefully assess the relationships between radial growth and site conditions along ecological gradients to improve dendroclimatic reconstructions.

Patients' characteristics associated with the decision of "do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation" order in a Swiss hospital.

BACKGROUND: According to Swiss legislation, do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation (DNACPR) order can be made at any time by patients only, unless the resuscitation is considered as futile, based on the doctors' evaluation. Little is known about how this decision is made, and which are the factors influencing this decision. METHODS: Observational, cross-sectional study was conducted between March and May 2013 on 194 patients hospitalized in the general internal medicine ward of a Swiss hospital. The associations between patients' DNACPR orders and gender, age, marital status, nationality, religion, number and type of comorbidities were assessed. RESULTS: 102 patients (53%) had a DNACPR order: 27% issued by the patient him/herself, 12% by his/her relatives and 61% by the medical team. Patients with a DNACPR order were significantly older: 80.7±10.8 vs. 67.5±15.1years in the "with" and "without" DNACPR order group, respectively, p<0.001. Oncologic disease was associated with a DNACPR order issued by the medical team (37.5% vs. 16.9% in the "with" and "without" DNACPR order group, respectively, p<0.05). Being protestant was associated with a DNACPR order issued by the patient (57.9% vs. 25.9% in the "with" and "without" DNACPR order group, respectively p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Over half of the patients admitted to a general internal medicine ward had a DNACPR order issued within the first 72h of hospitalization. Older age and oncologic disease were associated with a DNACPR decision by the medical team, while protestant religion was associated with a DNACPR decision by the patient.

Collective decision making in a heterogeneous environment: Lasius niger colonies preferentially forage at easy to learn locations

Many ants forage in complex environments and use a combination of trail pheromone information and route memory to navigate between food sources and the nest. Previous research has shown that foraging routes differ in how easily they are learned. In particular, it is easier to learn feeding locations that are reached by repeating (e.g. left-left or right-right) than alternating choices (left-right or right-left) along a route with two T-bifurcations. This raises the hypothesis that the learnability of the feeding sites may influence overall colony foraging patterns. We studied this in the mass-recruiting ant Lasius niger. We used mazes with two T-bifurcations, and allowed colonies to exploit two equidistant food sources that differed in how easily their locations were learned. In experiment 1, learnability was manipulated by using repeating versus alternating routes from nest to feeder. In experiment 2, we added visual landmarks along the route to one food source. Our results suggest that colonies preferentially exploited the feeding site that was easier to learn. This was the case even if the more difficult to learn feeding site was discovered first. Furthermore, we show that these preferences were at least partly caused by lower error rates (experiment 1) and greater foraging speeds (experiment 2) of foragers visiting the more easily learned feeder locations. Our results indicate that the learnability of feeding sites is an important factor influencing collective foraging patterns of ant colonies under more natural conditions, given that in natural environments foragers often face multiple bifurcations on their way to food sources.

Data Envelopment Analysis and non-discretionary inputs : How to select the most suitable model using multi-criteria decision analysis

Within Data Envelopment Analysis, several alternative models allow for an environmental adjustment. The majority of them deliver divergent results. Decision makers face the difficult task of selecting the most suitable model. This study is performed to overcome this difficulty. By doing so, it fills a research gap. First, a two-step web-based survey is conducted. It aims (1) to identify the selection criteria, (2) to prioritize and weight the selection criteria with respect to the goal of selecting the most suitable model and (3) to collect the preferences about which model is preferable to fulfil each selection criterion. Second, Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to quantify the preferences expressed in the survey. Results show that the understandability, the applicability and the acceptability of the alternative models are valid selection criteria. The selection of the most suitable model depends on the preferences of the decision makers with regards to these criteria.

Training primary care physicians in shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening : Insights from the first statewide colorectal cancer screening program in Switzerland

Background: The State of Vaud has launched the first population-based, organized, colorectal cancer screening program in Switzerland for the population aged 50 to 69. Each primary care physician (PCP) has been invited to participate in an interactive session preparing them to enroll patients in the screening program. We aimed at testing the impact of an interactive seminar for PCPs on their intention to discuss the options of no screening, screening with the fecal-immunological test (FIT) and colonoscopy. We measured attitude, intentions and knowledge through questionnaires filled by PCPs before and after a 2.5 hour-long interactive seminar. The main outcome was the proportion of physicians foreseeing to offer coloscopy vs FIT on an equal basis. Physicians estimated the proportion of their patients prescribed a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) vs coloscopy over the months before the seminar and after the interactive seminar. We used a clinical vignette to test for knowledge about screening indications. The interactive seminar included powerpoint presentations with quizzes and clickers, an 8-minute video presenting a shared decision making (SDM) consultation around CRC screening and distribution of educational materials such as a SDM decision aid and background epidemiological information.

Organisational Buying Decision Process for Biodegradable Implants

Työn tavoitteena oli selvittää organisaation ostopäätösprosessi, kun tuotteina ovat biohajoavat kasvo- ja kallokirurgian implantit. Ensin selvitettiin biohajoavien implanttien markkinapotentiaalia, biohajoavien materiaalien lisäksi implanttien valmistuksessa käytettäviä muita materiaaleja sekä implanteilta vaadittavia ominaisuuksia kirjallisuuden ja internetin sekä asiantuntijahaastatteluiden avulla. Kirjallisuuden avulla selvitettiin myös organisaatioiden ostopäätösprosessien yleisiä piirteitä ja vaiheita. Biohajoavien kasvo- ja kallokirurgian implanttien ostopäätösprosessia tutkittiin kirjallisen kyselytutkimuksen avulla, joka oli suunnattu alan asiantuntijoille Euroopassa, Yhdysvalloissa sekä Kanadassa. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin mm. tärkeimpiä käytettävien implanttien materiaalivalintaan vaikuttavia kriteereitä, ostopäätösprosessiin osallistuvia organisaation jäseniä, sekä heidän roolejaan päätöksenteossa, implantteja koskevan informaation etsintää sekä ostopäätösprosessin vaiheita. Kirjallisuudesta, internetistä, asiantuntijahaastatteluista ja kyselytutkimuksesta saatu tieto koottiin vuokaaviomalliksi, joka kuvaa kasvo- ja kallokirurgian implanttien ostopäätösprosessia organisaatioissa. Lopuksi esitettiin myös ehdotuksia markkinointisuunnitelmaan sekä jatkotutkimusehdotukset.

Customer Research on a Group of European Book Publishers: Trends, Modes of Operation and Decision-Making Processes

Työn päätarkoitus oli tuottaa Stora Enson käyttöön tietoa kirjakustantajista, yhdestä yrityksen asiakassegmentistä. Yritys oli kiinnostunut useista asioista, jotka koskivat asiakkaita ja heidän mielipiteitään. Tarkoitus on, että Stora Enso voi käyttää tutkimuksella koottua tietoa oman toimintansa suunnittelun tukena. Kerätty sekundääritieto esittelee eurooppalaisen kirjakustantamisen nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta sekä teorioita, jotka tukevat tutkittuja aihealueita. Primääritieto kerättiin henkilökohtaisilla haastatteluilla. Otanta koostui kymmenestä kirjakustantajasta, jotka toimivat Suomessa sekä Stora Enson päämarkkina-alueilla. Tutkimus tarjoaa päivitetyn kuvauksen kirjakustantamisesta. Haastateltavien mielipiteet alan trendeistä olivat yhteneviä yleisen mielipiteen kanssa, eikä suuria mielipide-eroavaisuuksia havaittu. Kustantajien toimintatapoja ja päätöksentekoprosesseja voidaan kuvata monimutkaisiksi, koska useat asiat vaikuttavat kirjan syntyyn ja paperin ostoprosessiin. Lisäksi tutkimus esittelee haastateltavien mielipiteitä paperin merkityksestä heidän liiketoiminnassaan.

Topworking of 'Bengal' lychee trees in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to evaluate the performance of 'Feizixiao', 'Nuomici', 'Heiye', 'Kway May Pink' and 'Bengal' lychee cultivars topworked onto bearing 'Bengal' trees. The experiments were carried out in commercial orchard at Rio das Pedras Farm in Jundiaí, state of São Paulo. The experimental design consisted of randomized blocks in a subdivided parcel arrangement, in which the parcel consisted of five cultivars and the sub-parcel consisted of six evaluation periods. Five replicates of three plants per parcel and six grafts per plant, (with two grafts per main branch) were used. The trees were approximately 10 years old propagated by air layering and planted with 6 x 4 m (416 plants/ha) spacing. The following characteristics were evaluated: success rate of the grafts, number of shoots, shoot length, number of nodes, number of leaves and chlorophyll content (SPAD). The control ('Bengal'/'Bengal') had the highest grafting success rate with 89.9%. On the other hand, 'Heiye', 'Feizixião', 'Nuomici' and 'Kway May Pink' had, respectively, 60.6, 55.0, 52.6 and 47.0% grafting success rates. All of the shoot grafts had normal growth with no signs of incompatibility. Therefore, the cultivars studied are compatible with 'Bengal' and may be used on commercial orchards.

Some optimization and decision problems in proportional reinsurance

Reinsurance is one of the tools that an insurer can use to mitigate the underwriting risk and then to control its solvency. In this paper, we focus on the proportional reinsurance arrangements and we examine several optimization and decision problems of the insurer with respect to the reinsurance strategy. To this end, we use as decision tools not only the probability of ruin but also the random variable deficit at ruin if ruin occurs. The discounted penalty function (Gerber & Shiu, 1998) is employed to calculate as particular cases the probability of ruin and the moments and the distribution function of the deficit at ruin if ruin occurs.

A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Cooperation versus competition effects on information sharing and use in group decision making

Information processing in groups has long been seen as a cooperative process. In contrast with this assumption, group members were rarely found to behave cooperatively: They withhold unshared information and stick to initial incorrect decisions. In the present article, we examined how group members' cooperative and competitivemotives impact on group information processing and propose that information sharing and use in groups could be seen as strategic behavior. We reviewed the latest developments in the literature investigating different forms of strategic information processing and their underlying mechanisms. This review suggests that explicit cooperative goals are needed for effective group decision-making.

The development of decision limits for the GH-2000 detection methodology using additional insulin-like growth factor-I and amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen assays.

The GH-2000 and GH-2004 projects have developed a method for detecting GH misuse based on measuring insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and the amino-terminal pro-peptide of type III collagen (P-III-NP). The objectives were to analyze more samples from elite athletes to improve the reliability of the decision limit estimates, to evaluate whether the existing decision limits needed revision, and to validate further non-radioisotopic assays for these markers. The study included 998 male and 931 female elite athletes. Blood samples were collected according to World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) guidelines at various sporting events including the 2011 International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) World Athletics Championships in Daegu, South Korea. IGF-I was measured by the Immunotech A15729 IGF-I IRMA, the Immunodiagnostic Systems iSYS IGF-I assay and a recently developed mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) method. P-III-NP was measured by the Cisbio RIA-gnost P-III-P, Orion UniQ? PIIINP RIA and Siemens ADVIA Centaur P-III-NP assays. The GH-2000 score decision limits were developed using existing statistical techniques. Decision limits were determined using a specificity of 99.99% and an allowance for uncertainty because of the finite sample size. The revised Immunotech IGF-I - Orion P-III-NP assay combination decision limit did not change significantly following the addition of the new samples. The new decision limits are applied to currently available non-radioisotopic assays to measure IGF-I and P-III-NP in elite athletes, which should allow wider flexibility to implement the GH-2000 marker test for GH misuse while providing some resilience against manufacturer withdrawal or change of assays. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.