Oceanic controls on the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf: model experiments under recent past conditions and a potential future scenario

In this paper we clearly demonstrate that changes in oceanic nutrients are a first order factor in determining changes in the primary production of the northwest European continental shelf on time scales of 5–10 yr. We present a series of coupled hydrodynamic ecosystem modelling simulations, using the POLCOMS-ERSEM system. These are forced by both reanalysis data and a single example of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OA-GCM) representative of possible conditions in 2080–2100 under an SRES A1B emissions scenario, along with the corresponding present day control. The OA-GCM forced simulations show a substantial reduction in surface nutrients in the open-ocean regions of the model domain, comparing future and present day time-slices. This arises from a large increase in oceanic stratification. Tracer transport experiments identify a substantial fraction of on-shelf water originates from the open-ocean region to the south of the domain, where this increase is largest, and indeed the on-shelf nutrient and primary production are reduced as this water is transported on-shelf. This relationship is confirmed quantitatively by comparing changes in winter nitrate with total annual nitrate uptake. The reduction in primary production by the reduced nutrient transport is mitigated by on-shelf processes relating to temperature, stratification (length of growing season) and recycling. Regions less exposed to ocean-shelf exchange in this model (Celtic Sea, Irish Sea, English Channel, and Southern North Sea) show a modest increase in primary production (of 5–10%) compared with a decrease of 0–20% in the outer shelf, Central and Northern North Sea. These findings are backed up by a boundary condition perturbation experiment and a simple mixing model.

Natural iron fertilization of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean by continental shelf sources of the Antarctic Peninsula

In large parts of the Southern Ocean, primary production is limited due to shortage of iron (Fe). We measured vertical Fe profiles in the western Weddell Sea, Weddell-Scotia Confluence, and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), showing that Fe is derived from benthic Fe diffusion and sediment resuspension in areas characterized by high turbulence due to rugged bottom topography. Our data together with literature data reveal an exponential decrease of dissolved Fe (DFe) concentrations with increasing distance from the continental shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and the western Weddell Sea. This decrease can be observed 3500 km eastward of the Antarctic Peninsula area, downstream the ACC. We estimated DFe summer fluxes into the upper mixed layer of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and found that horizontal advection dominates DFe supply, representing 54 ± 15% of the total flux, with significant vertical advection second most important at 29 ± 13%. Horizontal and vertical diffusion are weak with 1 ± 2% and 1 ± 1%, respectively. The atmospheric contribution is insignificant close to the Antarctic continent but increases to 15 ± 10% in the remotest waters (>1500 km offshore) of the ACC. Translating Southern Ocean carbon fixation by primary producers into biogenic Fe fixation shows a twofold excess of new DFe input close to the Antarctic continent and a one-third shortage in the open ocean. Fe recycling, with an estimated “fe” ratio of 0.59, is the likely pathway to balance new DFe supply and Fe fixation.