Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe.

Changes in chlamydia control activities in Europe between 2007 and 2012: a cross-national survey.

BACKGROUND In 2012, the levels of chlamydia control activities including primary prevention, effective case management with partner management and surveillance were assessed in 2012 across countries in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA), on initiative of the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) survey, and the findings were compared with those from a similar survey in 2007. METHODS Experts in the 30 EU/EEA countries were invited to respond to an online questionnaire; 28 countries responded, of which 25 participated in both the 2007 and 2012 surveys. Analyses focused on 13 indicators of chlamydia prevention and control activities; countries were assigned to one of five categories of chlamydia control. RESULTS In 2012, more countries than in 2007 reported availability of national chlamydia case management guidelines (80% vs. 68%), opportunistic chlamydia testing (68% vs. 44%) and consistent use of nucleic acid amplification tests (64% vs. 36%). The number of countries reporting having a national sexually transmitted infection control strategy or a surveillance system for chlamydia did not change notably. In 2012, most countries (18/25, 72%) had implemented primary prevention activities and case management guidelines addressing partner management, compared with 44% (11/25) of countries in 2007. CONCLUSION Overall, chlamydia control activities in EU/EEA countries strengthened between 2007 and 2012. Several countries still need to develop essential chlamydia control activities, whereas others may strengthen implementation and monitoring of existing activities.

Assessment of the Hong Kong Liver Cancer Staging System in Europe.

BACKGROUND & AIMS European and American guidelines have endorsed the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system. The aim of this study was to assess the performance of the recently developed Hong Kong Liver Cancer (HKLC) classification as a staging system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Europe. METHODS We used a pooled set of 1693 HCC patients combining three prospective European cohorts. Discrimination ability between the nine substages and five stages of the HKLC classification system was assessed. To evaluate the predictive power of the HKLC and BCLC staging systems on overall survival, Nagelkerke pseudo R2, Bayesian Information Criterion and Harrell's concordance index were calculated. The number of patients who would benefit from a curative therapy was assessed for both staging system. RESULTS The HKLC classification in nine substages shows suboptimal discrimination between the staging groups. The classification in five stages shows better discrimination between groups. However, the BCLC classification performs better than the HKLC classification in the ability to predict OS. The HKLC treatment algorithm tags significantly more patients to curative therapy than the BCLC. CONCLUSIONS The BCLC staging system performs better for European patients than the HKLC staging system in predicting OS. Twice more patients are eligible for a curative therapy with the HKLC algorithm, whether this translates in survival benefit remains to be investigated. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Sport clubs in Europe. A cross-national comparative perspective

​This book presents an up-to-date portrait of the characteristics of sport clubs in various European countries and their role in society and the national sport system. Furthermore, it offers a cross-national comparative perspective of sport clubs in twenty European countries. Containing both empirical data and information on the political and historical backgrounds of sport clubs, the book is organized in three parts. First, the authors provide an overview of the theoretical approach of the book and a description of the framework used for the country chapters. Second, the country chapters, written by experts within the field, provide a systematic overview of the available information on sport clubs in each country. These chapters are structured to answer the following questions: (1) What is the position of sport clubs within the national sport structure? (2) Which role do they fulfil in policy and society? (3) What are their basic characteristics and what factors influence the development of sport clubs? The book is concluded with a systematic comparison of the participating countries with the purpose of forging a clear link between the functioning of policy systems, observed problems, and possible solutions, and with a future research agenda on sport clubs. In an era of increased collaboration between European states, sport provides a natural vehicle through which to compare changes in culture, economics, and policy across nations. Sport Clubs in Europe will appeal to scholars of nonprofit management, sports management and sports sociology as well as administrators and policy makers in the international sports community.

Tuberculosis-related mortality in people living with HIV in Europe and Latin America: an international cohort study

BACKGROUND Management of tuberculosis in patients with HIV in eastern Europe is complicated by the high prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, low rates of drug susceptibility testing, and poor access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). We report 1 year mortality estimates from a multiregional (eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America) prospective cohort study: the TB:HIV study. METHODS Consecutive HIV-positive patients aged 16 years or older with a diagnosis of tuberculosis between Jan 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, were enrolled from 62 HIV and tuberculosis clinics in 19 countries in eastern Europe, western Europe, and Latin America. The primary endpoint was death within 12 months after starting tuberculosis treatment; all deaths were classified according to whether or not they were tuberculosis related. Follow-up was either until death, the final visit, or 12 months after baseline, whichever occurred first. Risk factors for all-cause and tuberculosis-related deaths were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox models. FINDINGS Of 1406 patients (834 in eastern Europe, 317 in western Europe, and 255 in Latin America), 264 (19%) died within 12 months. 188 (71%) of these deaths were tuberculosis related. The probability of all-cause death was 29% (95% CI 26-32) in eastern Europe, 4% (3-7) in western Europe, and 11% (8-16) in Latin America (p<0·0001) and the corresponding probabilities of tuberculosis-related death were 23% (20-26), 1% (0-3), and 4% (2-8), respectively (p<0·0001). Patients receiving care outside eastern Europe had a 77% decreased risk of death: adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0·23 (95% CI 0·16-0·31). In eastern Europe, compared with patients who started a regimen with at least three active antituberculosis drugs, those who started fewer than three active antituberculosis drugs were at a higher risk of tuberculosis-related death (aHR 3·17; 95% CI 1·83-5·49) as were those who did not have baseline drug-susceptibility tests (2·24; 1·31-3·83). Other prognostic factors for increased tuberculosis-related mortality were disseminated tuberculosis and a low CD4 cell count. 18% of patients were receiving ART at tuberculosis diagnosis in eastern Europe compared with 44% in western Europe and 39% in Latin America (p<0·0001); 12 months later the proportions were 67% in eastern Europe, 92% in western Europe, and 85% in Latin America (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION Patients with HIV and tuberculosis in eastern Europe have a risk of death nearly four-times higher than that in patients from western Europe and Latin America. This increased mortality rate is associated with modifiable risk factors such as lack of drug susceptibility testing and suboptimal initial antituberculosis treatment in settings with a high prevalence of drug resistance. Urgent action is needed to improve tuberculosis care for patients living with HIV in eastern Europe. FUNDING EU Seventh Framework Programme.

Abies – Circum-Mediterranean firs in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

Most European firs occur predominantly in small to medium-sized populations in the Mediterranean region, sometimes with fragmented and limited distributions, except for silver fir (Abies alba). They all are genetically closely related and can easily hybridise, perhaps as a consequence of late speciation during the late Quaternary. Circum-Mediterranean firs occur principally in mountain areas with medium to high precipitations rates which are mostly concentrated during the winter period. The species are able to tolerate long droughts in summer and tend to form pure stands when in optimal habitats. In the past firs have been extensively logged for construction and fire wood and their stands were replaced by other more disturbance adapted species or converted into rural areas. Nowadays with the exception of silver fir and Caucasian fir (Abies nordmanniana), circum-Mediterranean firs do not have a wide commercial interest. In Turkey they are still exploited for timber wood, while other firs have an ornamental use in gardening. Great importance is given to their preservation, especially to those populations which have very limited areas and specimens, with the creation of protected reserves and conservation programmes. Wild fires, livestock grazing and genetic drift represent actually their main threats.

Betula pendula, Betula pubescens and other birches in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) and downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) are short-lived, relatively small broadleaved trees that occur throughout most of Europe, particularly in northern regions. In southern Europe, birch trees are confined to mountainous areas, as they do not tolerate prolonged summer drought. Birch has a light canopy of small serrated leaves, and characteristic smooth, white to grey bark. In northern regions, birch trees can dominate the landscape up to the tree-line, whereas in the centre of their range they often occur early in secondary succession because of their abundant seed production, low demands on soil quality, and intolerance of shade. Birch trees provide the predominant hard wood source in northern Europe, and some varieties of Betula pendula produce highly priced veneers, while Betula pubescens is mostly used for pulp and fire wood. Other rarer species of birch are endemic to Europe contributing to the continental biodiversity even at high elevations and latitudes.

Castanea sativa in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

The sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) is the only native species of the genus in Europe. The broad diffusion and active management by man resulted in the establishment of the species at the limits of its potential ecological range, which makes it difficult to trace its original natural area. The present distribution ranges from North-Western Africa (e.g. Morocco) to North-Western Europe (southern England, Belgium) and from south-western Asia (e.g. Turkey) to Eastern Europe (e.g. Romania), the Caucasus (Georgia, Armenia) and the Caspian Sea. In Europe the main chestnut forests are concentrated in a few countries such as Italy, France and the Iberian Peninsula. The sweet chestnut has a remarkable multipurpose character, and may be managed for timber production (coppice and high forest) as well as for fruit production (traditional orchards), including a broad range of secondary products and ecosystem services.

Fraxinus excelsior in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

Common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) is a medium-sized deciduous tree with large compound leaves that develop relatively late in spring. It flowers before leaf-buds burst and trees can carry male, female, or hermaphrodite flowers, or different combinations of the flower types. It grows throughout the European temperate zone, but is absent from the driest Mediterranean areas because it does not tolerate extended summer drought, and from the northern boreal regions, with its seedlings in particular being vulnerable to late spring frost. Soils exert a strong control on common ash distribution locally. The species grows best on fertile soils where soil pH exceeds 5.5. It rarely forms pure stands, more often it is found in small groups in mixed stands. Ash trees produce high quality timber that combines light weight, strength, and flexibility. Before the mass use of steel, it was used for a wide range of purposes, from agricultural implements to construction of boat and car frames. Today

Larix decidua and other larches in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

The European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) is a pioneer, very long-lived, fast-growing coniferous tree, which occurs in the central and eastern mountains of Europe, forming open forests or pasture woods at the upper tree limits. Larch is the only deciduous conifer in Europe as an adaptation to continental alpine climates. In fact, it is able to tolerate very cold temperatures during winter and, by losing its needles, avoids foliage desiccation. It is a transitional species, colonising open terrain after natural disturbances. It forms pure stands but more often it is found with other alpine tree species, which tend to replace it if no other disturbances occur. Thanks to its adaptability and the durability of its wood, the European larch represents an important silvicultural tree species in the alpine regions, planted even outside its natural ranges. Its wood is largely used for carpentry, furniture and pulp for paper. In lower altitudes or with high precipitation rates, larch is more susceptible to fungal diseases. Outbreaks of insect defoliators, principally caused by the larch bud moth (Zeiraphera diniana), can limit tree development, with economic losses in plantations, but they rarely lead to the death of the trees.

Picea abies in Europe: distribution, habitat, usage and threats

Among the coniferous species, Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) is one of the most important trees in Europe both for economic and ecological aspects, with a long tradition of cultivation. It can be a big tree, reaching 50-60 m in height with a straight and regular trunk, particularly used for timber constructions, pulpwood for paper and furniture. This widespread species dominates the Boreal forests in Northern Europe and the subalpine areas of the Alps and Carpathian Mountains. Thanks to its high performances in different site conditions, it can also be found outside its natural distribution on lower elevations in more temperate forests. Norway spruce has been massively planted up to its niche limits, where it is particularly susceptible to heat and drought, due to its shallow root system. For this reason it is expected to be severely affected under global warming conditions. Disturbed and weakened plants can be easily attacked by rot fungi such as Heterobasidion annosum and Armillaria, or by the bark beetles Ips typographus, one of the most destructive spruce forest pests.