Measurement with Some Theory: a New Approach to Evaluate Business Cycle Models

We propose a method to evaluate cyclical models which does not require knowledge of the DGP and the exact empirical specification of the aggregate decision rules. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks and others to evaluate the model or contrast sub-models. The approach has good size and excellent power properties, even in small samples. We show how to examine the validity of a class of models, sort out the relevance of certain frictions, evaluate the importance of an added feature, and indirectly estimate structural parameters.

Social Security in Theory and Practice (II): Efficiency Theories, Narrative Theories, and Implications for Reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "government economizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory". The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

Salience theory of choice under risk

We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor of salient payoffs. By endogenizing decision weights as a function of payoffs, our model provides a novel and unified account of many empirical phenomena, including frequent risk-seeking behavior, invariance failures such as the Allais paradox, and preference reversals. It also yields new predictions, including some that distinguish it from Prospect Theory, which we test.

Experimental and computational approaches to quantitative proteomics: status quo and outlook.

Proteomics has come a long way from the initial qualitative analysis of proteins present in a given sample at a given time ("cataloguing") to large-scale characterization of proteomes, their interactions and dynamic behavior. Originally enabled by breakthroughs in protein separation and visualization (by two-dimensional gels) and protein identification (by mass spectrometry), the discipline now encompasses a large body of protein and peptide separation, labeling, detection and sequencing tools supported by computational data processing. The decisive mass spectrometric developments and most recent instrumentation news are briefly mentioned accompanied by a short review of gel and chromatographic techniques for protein/peptide separation, depletion and enrichment. Special emphasis is placed on quantification techniques: gel-based, and label-free techniques are briefly discussed whereas stable-isotope coding and internal peptide standards are extensively reviewed. Another special chapter is dedicated to software and computing tools for proteomic data processing and validation. A short assessment of the status quo and recommendations for future developments round up this journey through quantitative proteomics.

Hyperventilation complaints in music performance anxiety among classical music students.

Objective: Despite the importance of respiration and hyperventilation in anxiety disorders, research on breathing disturbances associated with hyperventilation is rare in the field of music performance anxiety (MPA, also known as stage fright). The only comparable study in this area reported a positive correlation between negative feelings of MPA and hyperventilation complaints during performance. The goals of this study were (a) to extend these previous findings to the period before performance, (b) to test whether a positive correlation also exists between hyperventilation complaints and the experience of stage fright as a problem, (c) to investigate instrument-specific symptom reporting, and (d) to confirm gender differences in negative feelings of MPA and hyperventilation complaints reported in other studies. Methods: We assessed 169 university students of classical music with a questionnaire comprising: the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory for negative feelings of MPA, the Nijmegen Questionnaire for hyperventilation complaints, and a single item for the experience of stage fright as a problem. Results: We found a significant positive correlation between hyperventilation complaints and negative feelings of MPA before performance and a significant positive correlation between hyperventilation complaints and the experience of stage fright as a problem. Wind musicians/singers reported a significantly higher frequency of respiratory symptoms than other musicians. Furthermore, women scored significantly higher on hyperventilation complaints and negative feelings of MPA. Conclusion: These results further the findings of previous reports by suggesting that breathing disturbances associated with hyperventilation may play a role in MPA prior to going on stage. Experimental studies are needed to confirm whether hyperventilation complaints associated with negative feelings of MPA manifest themselves at the physiological level. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Partitioning of reproduction in mother-daughter versus sibling associations : a test of optimal skew theory

A critical feature of cooperative animal societies is the reproductive skew, a shorthand term for the degree to which a dominant individual monopolizes overall reproduction in the group. Our theoretical analysis of the evolutionarily stable skew in matrifilial (i.e., mother-daughter) societies, in which relatednesses to offspring are asymmetrical, predicts that reproductive skews in such societies should tend to be greater than those of semisocial societies (i.e., societies composed of individuals of the same generation, such as siblings), in which relatednesses to offspring are symmetrical. Quantitative data on reproductive skews in semisocial and matrifilial associations within the same species for 17 eusocial Hymenoptera support this prediction. Likewise, a survey of reproductive partitioning within 20 vertebrate societies demonstrates that complete reproductive monopoly is more likely to occur in matrifilial than in semisocial societies, also as predicted by the optimal skew model.

Computational fluid dynamics of the right ventricular outflow tract and of the pulmonary artery: a bench model of flow dynamics.

OBJECTIVES: The reconstruction of the right ventricular outflow tract (RVOT) with valved conduits remains a challenge. The reoperation rate at 5 years can be as high as 25% and depends on age, type of conduit, conduit diameter and principal heart malformation. The aim of this study is to provide a bench model with computer fluid dynamics to analyse the haemodynamics of the RVOT, pulmonary artery, its bifurcation, and left and right pulmonary arteries that in the future may serve as a tool for analysis and prediction of outcome following RVOT reconstruction. METHODS: Pressure, flow and diameter at the RVOT, pulmonary artery, bifurcation of the pulmonary artery, and left and right pulmonary arteries were measured in five normal pigs with a mean weight of 24.6 ± 0.89 kg. Data obtained were used for a 3D computer fluid-dynamics simulation of flow conditions, focusing on the pressure, flow and shear stress profile of the pulmonary trunk to the level of the left and right pulmonary arteries. RESULTS: Three inlet steady flow profiles were obtained at 0.2, 0.29 and 0.36 m/s that correspond to the flow rates of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 l/min flow at the RVOT. The flow velocity profile was constant at the RVOT down to the bifurcation and decreased at the left and right pulmonary arteries. In all three inlet velocity profiles, low sheer stress and low-velocity areas were detected along the left wall of the pulmonary artery, at the pulmonary artery bifurcation and at the ostia of both pulmonary arteries. CONCLUSIONS: This computed fluid real-time model provides us with a realistic picture of fluid dynamics in the pulmonary tract area. Deep shear stress areas correspond to a turbulent flow profile that is a predictive factor for the development of vessel wall arteriosclerosis. We believe that this bench model may be a useful tool for further evaluation of RVOT pathology following surgical reconstructions.

Perioperative thirst: an analysis from the perspective of the Symptom Management Theory

A theoretical study aimed to analyze the existing knowledge in the literature on the perioperative thirst symptom from the perspective of Symptom Management Theory, and supplemented with the experience of the study group and thirst research. Thirst is described as a very intense symptom occurring in the perioperative period, and for this reason it cannot be ignored. The Symptom Management Theory is adequate for understanding the thirst symptom and is a deductive theory, focused on the domains of the Person, Environment and Health / Illness Status, as well as on the dimensions of Experience, Management Strategies and Symptom Outcomes. Using the theory leads us to consider perioperative thirst in its multifactorial aspects, analyzing the interrelation of its domains and dimensions in order to draw attention to this symptom that has been insufficiently valued, recorded and treated in clinical practice.

Determination or determinants? A debate based on the Theory on the Social Production of Health

This article aims to discuss the concepts of Social Determination of Health and Social Determinants of Health, by establishing a comparison between each of their guiding perspectives and investigating their implications on the development of health policies and health actions. We propose a historical and conceptual reflection, highlighting the Theory on the Social Production of Health, followed by a debate on the concepts, with a comparative approach among them.

Intimate partner violence against pregnant women: the environment according to Levine's nursing theory

Abstract OBJECTIVE Analyzing the elements that compose the environment of pregnant women who have experienced intimate partner violence in the light of Levine's Nursing Theory. METHOD A qualitative, descriptive study conducted from September to January 2012, with nine pregnant women in a Municipal Health Center in Rio de Janeiro. The interviews were semi-structured and individual. The theoretical framework was based on Levine's Nursing Theory. RESULTS Thematic analysis evidenced the elements that composed the external environment, such as violence perpetrated by intimate partners before and during pregnancy, violence in childhood and adolescence, alcohol consumption and drug use by the partner, unemployment, low education and economic dependency, which affected health and posed risks to the pregnancy. CONCLUSION Violence perpetrated by an intimate partner was the main external factor that influenced the internal environment with repercussions on health. This theory represents a tool in nursing care which will aid in detecting cases and the fight against violence.

Development of premature children: caregivers' understanding according to the Bioecological Theory

Abstract OBJECTIVE Understanding the conceptions of premature children caregivers on child development and associated factors. METHOD An exploratory-descriptive qualitative study of 12 families with children under three years of age. Interviews were submitted to thematic content analysis, systematized into the categories of Bioecological Theory of Human Development: Process, Person, Context and Time, and in the Functional Development category. RESULTS There are concerns about impairment in the current and future development of a Person/child defined as fragile as a result of premature birth (Time dimension), minimized by the scope of observable competencies such as motor skills. The Context, especially family and health services, and Proximal Processes, described as one-way caregiver interactions, are considered determinants of development. Functional Development is considered a natural consequence and result of education. The support network is crucial, supporting or limiting care. CONCLUSION Concerns about the development mobilize caregivers to stimulate the premature child/person and requests family and healthcare assistance.

A theory of optimal random crackdowns

An incentives based theory of policing is developed which can explain the phenomenon of random “crackdowns,” i.e., intermittent periods of high interdiction/surveillance. For a variety of police objective functions, random crackdowns can be part of the optimal monitoring strategy. We demonstrate support for implications of the crackdown theory using traffic data gathered by the Belgian Police Department and use the model to estimate the deterrence effectof additional resources spent on speeding interdiction.

The genetical theory of social behaviour.

We survey the population genetic basis of social evolution, using a logically consistent set of arguments to cover a wide range of biological scenarios. We start by reconsidering Hamilton's (Hamilton 1964 J. Theoret. Biol. 7, 1-16 (doi:10.1016/0022-5193(64)90038-4)) results for selection on a social trait under the assumptions of additive gene action, weak selection and constant environment and demography. This yields a prediction for the direction of allele frequency change in terms of phenotypic costs and benefits and genealogical concepts of relatedness, which holds for any frequency of the trait in the population, and provides the foundation for further developments and extensions. We then allow for any type of gene interaction within and between individuals, strong selection and fluctuating environments and demography, which may depend on the evolving trait itself. We reach three conclusions pertaining to selection on social behaviours under broad conditions. (i) Selection can be understood by focusing on a one-generation change in mean allele frequency, a computation which underpins the utility of reproductive value weights; (ii) in large populations under the assumptions of additive gene action and weak selection, this change is of constant sign for any allele frequency and is predicted by a phenotypic selection gradient; (iii) under the assumptions of trait substitution sequences, such phenotypic selection gradients suffice to characterize long-term multi-dimensional stochastic evolution, with almost no knowledge about the genetic details underlying the coevolving traits. Having such simple results about the effect of selection regardless of population structure and type of social interactions can help to delineate the common features of distinct biological processes. Finally, we clarify some persistent divergences within social evolution theory, with respect to exactness, synergies, maximization, dynamic sufficiency and the role of genetic arguments.