Optimization of redundancy in branched water distribution systems

In developing countries many water distribution systems are branched networks with little redundancy. If any component in the distribution system fails, many users are left relying on secondary water sources. These sources oftentimes do not provide potable water and prolonged use leads to increased cases of water borne illnesses. Increasing redundancy in branched networks increases the reliability of the networks, but is oftentimes viewed as unaffordable. This paper presents a procedure for water system managers to use to determine which loops when added to a branch network provide the most benefit for users. Two methods are presented, one ranking the loops based on total number of users benefited, and one ranking the loops of number of vulnerable users benefited. A case study is presented using the water distribution system of Medina Bank Village, Belize. It was found that forming loops in upstream pipes connected to the main line had the potential to benefit the most users.

Computational study of internal and external condensing flows and experimental synthesis to investigate their attainability and stability in ground-based and space-based environments

This doctoral thesis presents the computational work and synthesis with experiments for internal (tube and channel geometries) as well as external (flow of a pure vapor over a horizontal plate) condensing flows. The computational work obtains accurate numerical simulations of the full two dimensional governing equations for steady and unsteady condensing flows in gravity/0g environments. This doctoral work investigates flow features, flow regimes, attainability issues, stability issues, and responses to boundary fluctuations for condensing flows in different flow situations. This research finds new features of unsteady solutions of condensing flows; reveals interesting differences in gravity and shear driven situations; and discovers novel boundary condition sensitivities of shear driven internal condensing flows. Synthesis of computational and experimental results presented here for gravity driven in-tube flows lays framework for the future two-phase component analysis in any thermal system. It is shown for both gravity and shear driven internal condensing flows that steady governing equations have unique solutions for given inlet pressure, given inlet vapor mass flow rate, and fixed cooling method for condensing surface. But unsteady equations of shear driven internal condensing flows can yield different “quasi-steady” solutions based on different specifications of exit pressure (equivalently exit mass flow rate) concurrent to the inlet pressure specification. This thesis presents a novel categorization of internal condensing flows based on their sensitivity to concurrently applied boundary (inlet and exit) conditions. The computational investigations of an external shear driven flow of vapor condensing over a horizontal plate show limits of applicability of the analytical solution. Simulations for this external condensing flow discuss its stability issues and throw light on flow regime transitions because of ever-present bottom wall vibrations. It is identified that laminar to turbulent transition for these flows can get affected by ever present bottom wall vibrations. Detailed investigations of dynamic stability analysis of this shear driven external condensing flow result in the introduction of a new variable, which characterizes the ratio of strength of the underlying stabilizing attractor to that of destabilizing vibrations. Besides development of CFD tools and computational algorithms, direct application of research done for this thesis is in effective prediction and design of two-phase components in thermal systems used in different applications. Some of the important internal condensing flow results about sensitivities to boundary fluctuations are also expected to be applicable to flow boiling phenomenon. Novel flow sensitivities discovered through this research, if employed effectively after system level analysis, will result in the development of better control strategies in ground and space based two-phase thermal systems.

Computational simulations of latent heat thermal energy storage systems - with innovative and first-principles based simulation for the underlying unsteady melting (and solidification) processes

This thesis develops an effective modeling and simulation procedure for a specific thermal energy storage system commonly used and recommended for various applications (such as an auxiliary energy storage system for solar heating based Rankine cycle power plant). This thermal energy storage system transfers heat from a hot fluid (termed as heat transfer fluid - HTF) flowing in a tube to the surrounding phase change material (PCM). Through unsteady melting or freezing process, the PCM absorbs or releases thermal energy in the form of latent heat. Both scientific and engineering information is obtained by the proposed first-principle based modeling and simulation procedure. On the scientific side, the approach accurately tracks the moving melt-front (modeled as a sharp liquid-solid interface) and provides all necessary information about the time-varying heat-flow rates, temperature profiles, stored thermal energy, etc. On the engineering side, the proposed approach is unique in its ability to accurately solve – both individually and collectively – all the conjugate unsteady heat transfer problems for each of the components of the thermal storage system. This yields critical system level information on the various time-varying effectiveness and efficiency parameters for the thermal storage system.

Performance Availability and Anticipatory Change Planning of Intralogistics Systems: A Simulation-Based Approach

In recent years, the ability to respond to real time changes in operations and reconfigurability in equipment are likely to become essential characteristics for next generation intralogistics systems as well as the level of automation, cost effectiveness and maximum throughput. In order to cope with turbulences and the increasing level of dynamic conditions, future intralogistics systems have to feature short reaction times, high flexibility in processes and the ability to adapt to frequent changes. The increasing autonomy and complexity in processes of today’s intralogistics systems requires new and innovative management approaches, which allow a fast response to (un)anticipated events and adaptation to changing environment in order to reduce the negative consequences of these events. The ability of a system to respond effectively a disruption depends more on the decisions taken before the event than those taken during or after. In this context, anticipatory change planning can be a usable approach for managers to make contingency plans for intralogistics systems to deal with the rapidly changing marketplace. This paper proposes a simulation-based decision making framework for the anticipatory change planning of intralogistics systems. This approach includes the quantitative assessments based on the simulation in defined scenarios as well as the analysis of performance availability that combines the flexibility corridors of different performance dimensions. The implementation of the approach is illustrated on a new intralogistics technology called the Cellular Transport System.

Nucleic acid sensing by an orthogonal reporter system based on homo-DNA

We have developed an assay for single strand DNA or RNA detection which is based on the homo-DNA templated Staudinger reduction of the profluorophore rhodamine-azide. The assay is based on a three component system, consisting of a homo-DNA/DNA hybrid probe, a set of homo-DNA reporter strands and the target DNA or RNA. We present two different formats of the assay (Omega probe and linear probe) in which the linear probe was found to perform best with catalytic turnover of the reporter strands (TON: 8) and a match/mismatch discrimination of up to 19. The advantage of this system is that the reporting (homo-DNA) and sensing (DNA) domain are decoupled from each other since the two pairing systems are bioorthogonal. This allows independent optimization of either domain which may lead to higher selectivity in in vivo imaging.

Questionnaire-based study to assess the association between management practices and mastitis within tie-stall and free-stall dairy housing systems in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND Prophylactic measures are key components of dairy herd mastitis control programs, but some are only relevant in specific housing systems. To assess the association between management practices and mastitis incidence, data collected in 2011 by a survey among 979 randomly selected Swiss dairy farms, and information from the regular test day recordings from 680 of these farms was analyzed. RESULTS The median incidence of farmer-reported clinical mastitis (ICM) was 11.6 (mean 14.7) cases per 100 cows per year. The median annual proportion of milk samples with a composite somatic cell count (PSCC) above 200,000 cells/ml was 16.1 (mean 17.3) %. A multivariable negative binomial regression model was fitted for each of the mastitis indicators for farms with tie-stall and free-stall housing systems separately to study the effect of other (than housing system) management practices on the ICM and PSCC events (above 200,000 cells/ml). The results differed substantially by housing system and outcome. In tie-stall systems, clinical mastitis incidence was mainly affected by region (mountainous production zone; incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.73), the dairy herd replacement system (1.27) and farmers age (0.81). The proportion of high SCC was mainly associated with dry cow udder controls (IRR = 0.67), clean bedding material at calving (IRR = 1.72), using total merit values to select bulls (IRR = 1.57) and body condition scoring (IRR = 0.74). In free-stall systems, the IRR for clinical mastitis was mainly associated with stall climate/temperature (IRR = 1.65), comfort mats as resting surface (IRR = 0.75) and when no feed analysis was carried out (IRR = 1.18). The proportion of high SSC was only associated with hand and arm cleaning after calving (IRR = 0.81) and beef producing value to select bulls (IRR = 0.66). CONCLUSIONS There were substantial differences in identified risk factors in the four models. Some of the factors were in agreement with the reported literature while others were not. This highlights the multifactorial nature of the disease and the differences in the risks for both mastitis manifestations. Attempting to understand these multifactorial associations for mastitis within larger management groups continues to play an important role in mastitis control programs.

3D Face Reconstruction from 2D Pictures: First Results of a Web-Based Computer Aided System for Aesthetic Procedures

The human face is a vital component of our identity and many people undergo medical aesthetics procedures in order to achieve an ideal or desired look. However, communication between physician and patient is fundamental to understand the patient’s wishes and to achieve the desired results. To date, most plastic surgeons rely on either “free hand” 2D drawings on picture printouts or computerized picture morphing. Alternatively, hardware dependent solutions allow facial shapes to be created and planned in 3D, but they are usually expensive or complex to handle. To offer a simple and hardware independent solution, we propose a web-based application that uses 3 standard 2D pictures to create a 3D representation of the patient’s face on which facial aesthetic procedures such as filling, skin clearing or rejuvenation, and rhinoplasty are planned in 3D. The proposed application couples a set of well-established methods together in a novel manner to optimize 3D reconstructions for clinical use. Face reconstructions performed with the application were evaluated by two plastic surgeons and also compared to ground truth data. Results showed the application can provide accurate 3D face representations to be used in clinics (within an average of 2 mm error) in less than 5 min.

Adaptable Visualisation Based On User Needs

Software developers often ask questions about software systems and software ecosystems that entail exploration and navigation, such as who uses this component?, and where is this feature implemented?. Software visualisation can be a great aid to understanding and exploring the answers to such questions, but visualisations require expertise to implement effectively, and they do not always scale well to large systems. We propose to automatically generate software visualisations based on software models derived from open source software corpora and from an analysis of the properties of typical developers queries and commonly used visualisations. The key challenges we see are (1) understanding how to match queries to suitable visualisations, and (2) scaling visualisations effectively to very large software systems and corpora. In the paper we motivate the idea of automatic software visualisation, we enumerate the challenges and our proposals to address them, and we describe some very initial results in our attempts to develop scalable visualisations of open source software corpora.

An adaptive Newton-method based on a dynamical systems approach

The traditional Newton method for solving nonlinear operator equations in Banach spaces is discussed within the context of the continuous Newton method. This setting makes it possible to interpret the Newton method as a discrete dynamical system and thereby to cast it in the framework of an adaptive step size control procedure. In so doing, our goal is to reduce the chaotic behavior of the original method without losing its quadratic convergence property close to the roots. The performance of the modified scheme is illustrated with various examples from algebraic and differential equations.

A chrysophyte-based quantitative reconstruction of winter severity from varved lake sediments in NE Poland during the past millennium and its relationship to natural climate variability

Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

Tumour border configuration in colorectal cancer: proposal for an alternative scoring system based on the percentage of infiltrating margin.

AIMS Information on tumour border configuration (TBC) in colorectal cancer (CRC) is currently not included in most pathology reports, owing to lack of reproducibility and/or established evaluation systems. The aim of this study was to investigate whether an alternative scoring system based on the percentage of the infiltrating component may represent a reliable method for assessing TBC. METHODS AND RESULTS Two hundred and fifteen CRCs with complete clinicopathological data were evaluated by two independent observers, both 'traditionally' by assigning the tumours into pushing/infiltrating/mixed categories, and alternatively by scoring the percentage of infiltrating margin. With the pushing/infiltrating/mixed pattern method, interobserver agreement (IOA) was moderate (κ = 0.58), whereas with the percentage of infiltrating margins method, IOA was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.86). A higher percentage of infiltrating margin correlated with adverse features such as higher grade (P = 0.0025), higher pT (P = 0.0007), pN (P = 0.0001) and pM classification (P = 0.0063), high-grade tumour budding (P < 0.0001), lymphatic invasion (P < 0.0001), vascular invasion (P = 0.0032), and shorter survival (P = 0.0008), and was significantly associated with an increased probability of lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Information on TBC gives additional prognostic value to pathology reports on CRC. The novel proposed scoring system, by using the percentage of infiltrating margin, outperforms the 'traditional' way of reporting TBC. Additionally, it is reproducible and simple to apply, and can therefore be easily integrated into daily diagnostic practice.