Calibration and application of the MN2D dynamics model to the avalanches of Las Leñas (Argentina)

During the winters of 1999 and 2000 large avalanches occurred in the ski resort of Las Leñas (Los Andes, Mendoza, Argentina). On 8 September 1999 an avalanche of new, dry snow ran over a path with a 1000 m vertical drop. On 30 June and on 1 July 2000 five avalanches of similar vertical drop, which start with new snow, entrained very wet snow during their descent, and evolved into dense snow avalanches. To use the MN2D dynamics model correctly, calibration of model parameters is necessary. Also, no previous works with the use of dynamics models exist in South America. The events used to calibrate the model occurred during the winters of 1999 and 2000 and are a good sample of the kind of avalanches which can occur in this area of the Andes range. By considering the slope morphology and topography, the snow and meteorological conditions and the results of the model simulations, it was estimated that these avalanches were not extreme events with a return period greater than one hundred years. This implies that, in natural conditions, bigger, extreme avalanches could happen. In this work, the MN2D dynamics model is calibrated with two different avalanches of the same magnitude: dry and wet. The importance of the topographic data in the simulation is evaluated. It is concluded that MN2D dynamics model can be used to simulate dry extreme avalanches in Argentinean Andes but not to simulate extreme wet avalanches, which are much more sensitive to the topography.

Carbohydrate and nitrogen stores in Festuca paniculata under mowing explain dominance in subalpine grasslands

Cessation of traditional management threatens semi-natural grassland diversity through the colonisation or increase of competitive species adapted to nutrient-poor conditions. Regular mowing is one practice that controls their abundance. This study evaluated the ecophysiological mechanisms limiting short- and long-term recovery after mowing for Festuca paniculata, a competitive grass that takes over subalpine grasslands in the Alps following cessation of mowing. We quantified temporal variations in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content, starch, fructan and total soluble sugars in leaves, stem bases and roots of F. paniculata during one growth cycle in mown and unmown fields and related them to the dynamics of soil mineral N concentration and soil moisture. Short-term results suggest that the regrowth of F. paniculata following mowing might be N-limited, first because of N dilution by C increments in the plant tissue, and second, due to low soil mineral N and soil moisture at this time of year. However, despite short-term effects of mowing on plant growth, C and N content and concentration at the beginning of the following growing season were not affected. Nevertheless, total biomass accumulation at peak standing biomass was largely reduced compared to unmown fields. Moreover, lower C storage capacity at the end of the growing season impacted C allocation to vegetative reproduction during winter, thereby dramatically limiting the horizontal growth of F. paniculata tussocks in the long term. We conclude that mowing reduces the growth of F. paniculata tussocks through both C and N limitation. Such results will help understanding how plant responses to defoliation regulate competitive interactions within plant communities.

Telomere dynamics rather than age predict life expectancy in the wild.

Despite accumulating evidence from in vitro studies that cellular senescence is linked to telomere dynamics, how this relates to whole-organism senescence and longevity is poorly understood and controversial. Using data on telomere length in red blood cells and long-term survival from wild Alpine swifts of a range of ages, we report that the telomere length and the rate of telomere loss are predictive of life expectancy, and that slow erosion of relatively long telomeres is associated with the highest survival probabilities. Importantly, because telomere dynamics, rather than chronological age, predict life expectancy, our study provides good evidence for a mechanistic link between telomere erosion and reduced organism longevity under natural conditions, chronological age itself possibly not becoming a significant predictor until very old ages beyond those in our sample.

MMPBSA decomposition of the binding energy throughout a molecular dynamics simulation of Amyloid-Beta (Aß10-35) aggregation

Recent experiments with amyloid-beta (Aß) peptides indicate that the formation of toxic oligomers may be an important contribution to the onset of Alzheimer's disease. The toxicity of Aß oligomers depend on their structure, which is governed by assembly dynamics. However, a detailed knowledge of the structure of at the atomic level has not been achieved yet due to limitations of current experimental techniques. In this study, replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations are used to identify the expected diversity of dimer conformations of Aß10-35 monomers. The most representative dimer conformation has been used to track the dimer formation process between both monomers. The process has been characterized by means of the evolution of the decomposition of the binding free energy, which provides an energetic profile of the interaction. Dimers undergo a process of reorganization driven basically by inter-chain hydrophobic and hydrophilic interactions and also solvation/desolvation processes.

The Limits of Issue Ownership Dynamics : The Constraining Effect of Party Preference

Issue ownership theory argues that when a voter considers a party to be the most competent amongst others to deal with an issue (that is, the party "owns" the issue), chances are the voter will vote for that party. Recent work has shown that perceptions of issue ownership are dynamic: they are affected by the media coverage of party messages. However, based on the broad literature on partisan bias, we predict that parties' efforts to change issue ownership perceptions will have a difficult time breaching the perceptual screen created by a voter's party preference. Using two separate experiments with a similar design we show that the effect of partisan issue messages on issue competence is moderated by party preference. The effect of issue messages is reinforced when people already like a party, and blocked when people dislike a party.

Chaotic dynamics and team effectiveness: evidence from professional basketball

Considering teams as complex adaptive systems (CAS) this study deals with changes in team effectiveness over time in a specific context: professional basketball. The sample comprised 23 basketball teams whose outcomes were analysed over a 12-year period according to two objective measures. The results reveal that all the teams showed chaotic dynamics, one of the key characteristics of CAS. A relationship was also found between teams showing low-dimensional chaotic dynamics and better outcomes, supporting the idea of healthy variability in organizational behaviour. The stability of the squad was likewise found to influence team outcomes, although it was not associated with the chaotic dynamics in team effectiveness. It is concluded that studying teams as CAS enables fluctuations in team effectiveness to be explained, and that the techniques derived from nonlinear dynamical systems, developed specifically for the study of CAS, are useful for this purpose.

Dynamics of flow: a nonlinear perspective

The aims of this study are to consider the experience of flow from a nonlinear dynamics perspective. The processes and temporal nature of intrinsic motivation and flow, would suggest that flow experiences fluctuate over time in a dynamical fashion. Thus it can be argued that the potential for chaos is strong. The sample was composed of 20 employees (both full and part time) recruited from a number of different organizations and work backgrounds. The Experience Sampling Method (ESM) was used for data collection. Once obtained the temporal series, they were subjected to various analyses proper to the com- plexity theory (Visual Recurrence Analysis and Surrogate Data Analysis). Results showed that in 80% of the cases, flow presented a chaotic dynamic, in that, flow experiences delineated a complex dynamic whose patterns of change were not easy to predict. Implications of the study, its limitations and future research are discussed.

Logistic services as competitive means : segmenting the retail market for softwood lumber

Abstract

Follicular dynamics in zebu cattle

The aim of this study was to investigate the follicular dynamics during estrous cycle in Gir breed (Bos indicus) cows. Follicular growth and atresia during estrous cycle were evaluated using a portable ultrasound device. Luteal activity was evaluated by serum progesterone levels. Cycles with two (6.67%), three (60.00%), four (26.67%) and five (6.67%) follicular waves were observed. There was no difference (P>0.05) in dominant or subordinate follicles growth or atresia rates among follicular waves. The maximum diameter of the ovulatory follicle was higher than the diameter of the other dominant follicles in cycles with four waves, and higher than the diameter of the second dominant follicle in cycles with three waves (P<0.05). There was no difference (P>0.05) in estrous cycle length (21.11±1.76 and 22.25±1.71 days) or progesterone levels during diestrous (4.48±1.45 and 5.08±1.40 ng/mL) between cycles with three or four waves. Follicular dynamics in Gir cattle is characterized by a higher incidence of cycles with three or four waves, associated with a low persistence of the dominant follicle.