Update on the population structure of MRSA causing infection in a central hospital and in healthcare centers in Portugal

RESUMO:Staphylococcus aureus é um dos principais agentes patogénicos humanos, sendo frequentemente associado a infecções nosocomiais e infecções na comunidade. A prevalência de S. aureus resistentes à meticilina (MRSA) em hospitais portugueses é uma das mais elevadas da Europa e tem sido caracterizada extensivamente; contrariamente, a prevalência e epidemiologia de MRSA na comunidade em Portugal não tem sido devidamente seguida. Com o objectivo de compreender as causas possíveis do aumento na frequência de MRSA num dos maiores hospitais centrais portugueses (HSM) ao longo de 17 anos, isolados de MRSA recolhidos em 1993 (n=54) e 2010 (n=180) de pus, sangue e urina foram analisados por PFGE, MLST, tipagem do spa e tipagem de SCCmec. Os resultados mostraram que ocorreu uma mudança global nos tipos clonais predominantes, onde o clone ST22-IVh substituiu os clones, ST239-IIIvar e ST247-I, representando mais de 70% da população actual. Além disso, entre 1993 e 2010 verificou-se um aumento na diversidade genética dos tipos clonais de MRSA. Para determinar a frequência e a natureza clonal de MRSA e S. aureus sensíveis à meticilina (MSSA) isolados de infecções de pele e tecidos moles (SSTI) em pessoas que frequentam centros de saúde em Portugal, 73 amostras foram recolhidas em nove centros de saúde (Rede Médicos Sentinela). Isolou-se um total de 40 S. aureus (55%), dos quais 17,5% eram MRSA. Os isolados de MRSA pertenciam aos clones ST22-IVh (n=4), ST5-IVc (n=2) e ST105-II (n=1), que foram descritos neste estudo como sendo clones de origem hospitalar. Os nossos resultados sugerem que o aumento da frequência de MRSA no HSM pode estar associado à emergência de um clone de MRSA com maior capacidade epidémica. Além disso, verificámos que a principal causa de SSTI em pessoas que frequentam centros de saúde em Portugal são MRSA de origem hospitalar e não MRSA associados à comunidade.------ABSTRACT: Staphylococcus aureus is one of the most important human pathogens, being a major cause of infections worldwide both in the hospital and in the community. In Portugal, the prevalence of methicillin resistant S. aureus (MRSA) in hospitals is one of the highest in Europe and has been characterized extensively; contrarily the prevalence and epidemiology of MRSA in the community has not been followed in a meaningful way. To understand the epidemiological events that could explain a steep increase in MRSA frequency in a major Portuguese central hospital (HSM) within a 17 year period, two MRSA collections recovered in 1993 (n=54) and 2010 (n=180) from pus, blood and urine were analyzed by PFGE, MLST, spa and SCCmec typing. The results showed that a major clonal shift occurred, wherein ST22-IVh clone has replaced the previous ST239-IIIvar and ST247-I clones and accounts for more than 70% of the present population. Moreover, an increase in genetic diversity of MRSA clonal types was observed between the two study periods. With the aim of determining the frequency and clonal nature of MRSA and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) causing skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) in patients attending healthcare centers in Portugal, 73 samples were collected from nine healthcare centers (Medicos Sentinela Network). A total of 40 S. aureus were isolated, accounting for 55% of the SSTI, of which 17.5% were MRSA. MRSA isolates belonged to ST22-IVh (n=4), ST5-IVc (n=2) and ST105-II (n=1) that have also been described in the hospital in an equivalent period. Our results suggest that the increase in MRSA frequency in HSM may be associated to the emergence of a MRSA clone with higher epidemic potential. Moreover, we propose that the spillover of MRSA from the hospital rather than community-associated-MRSA was the main cause of SSTI in persons attending healthcare centers in Portugal.

BIWiki - Using a Business Intelligence Wiki to Form a Virtual Community of Practice for Portuguese Master's Students

Web 2.0 software in general and wikis in particular have been receiving growing attention as they constitute new and powerful tools, capable of supporting information sharing, creation of knowledge and a wide range of collaborative processes and learning activities. This paper introduces briefly some of the new opportunities made possible by Web 2.0 or the social Internet, focusing on those offered by the use of wikis as learning spaces. A wiki allows documents to be created, edited and shared on a group basis; it has a very easy and efficient markup language, using a simple Web browser. One of the most important characteristics of wiki technology is the ease with which pages are created and edited. The facility for wiki content to be edited by its users means that its pages and structure form a dynamic entity, in permanent evolution, where users can insert new ideas, supplement previously existing information and correct errors and typos in a document at any time, up to the agreed final version. This paper explores wikis as a collaborative learning and knowledge-building space and its potential for supporting Virtual Communities of Practice (VCoPs). In the academic years (2007/8 and 2008/9), students of the Business Intelligence module at the Master's programme of studies on Knowledge Management and Business Intelligence at Instituto Superior de Estatistica e Gestao de Informacao of the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal, have been actively involved in the creation of BIWiki - a wiki for Business Intelligence in the Portuguese language. Based on usage patterns and feedback from students participating in this experience, some conclusions are drawn regarding the potential of this technology to support the emergence of VCoPs; some provisional suggestions will be made regarding the use of wikis to support information sharing, knowledge creation and transfer and collaborative learning in Higher Education.

Mental health care assessed based on structure, process and outcome : a retrospective cohort study

RESUMO: As doenças mentais são comuns, universais e associadas a uma significativa sobrecarga pessoal, familiar, social e económica. Os Serviços de Saúde Mental devem abordar de forma adequada as necessidades dos pacientes e familiares tanto ao nível clínico como também ao nível social. O presente estudo foi realizado num período de grande transformação nos sistemas de saúde primário e de saúde mental em Portugal, num Departamento de Psiquiatria desenvolvido com base nos princípios da OMS. Os objectivos incluem a caracterização: 1) das Unidades Funcionais do Departamento; 2) dos pacientes internados pela primeira vez no internamento de agudos; 3) da utilização dos serviços nas equipas comunitárias após a alta; e 4) da avaliação de alguns dos indicadores de qualidade do departamento, com recurso ao modelo de Donabedian sobre a articulação entre a Estrutura-Processo-Resultados. Metodologia: Foi escolhido um estudo de coorte retrospectivo. Todos os pacientes internados pela primeira vez entre 2008 e 2010 foram incluídos no estudo. Os seus processos clínicos e a base de dados do hospital onde são registados todos os contactos que estes tiveram com os profissionais de saúde mental foram revistos de forma a obter dados sociodemográficos e clínicos, durante o período do estudo e após a alta. Os instrumentos utilizados foram o WHO-ICMHC (Classificação Internacional de Cuidados de Saúde Mental), para caracterizar o Departamento, o AIESMP (Avaliação Inicial de Enfermagem em Saúde Mental e Psiquiatria) para recolha dos dados sociodemográficos, e o VSSS (Escala de Satisfação com os Serviços de Verona) de forma a avaliar a satisfação dos pacientes em relação aos cuidados recebidos. A análise estatística incluiu a análise descritiva, quantitativa e qualitativa dos dados. Resultados: As Unidades Funcionais do Departamento revelaram níveis elevados de articulação e consistência com as necessidades de cuidados psiquiátricos e reabilitação psicossocial dos pacientes. Os 543 pacientes admitidos pela primeira vez eram maioritariamente (56.9%) mulheres, caucasianas (81.2%), com diagnóstico de perturbações do humor (66.3%), internadas voluntariamente (59.7%), e uma idade média de 45.1 anos. Estas eram significativamente mais velhas, mais frequentemente empregadas, casadas/coabitar e tinham uma prevalência mais elevada de perturbações do humor, comparativamente aos homens. O internamento compulsivo era mais significativo nos homens (54.7%). A taxa de abandono no pós-alta (4.2%) e a taxa de reinternamentos (2.9%) na quinzena após a alta revelaram-se inferiores aos padrões na literatura internacional. De forma global, a satisfação dos pacientes com os cuidados de saúde mental foi positiva. Conclusões: Os cuidados prestados mostraram-se eficazes, adaptados e baseados nas necessidades e problemas específicos dos pacientes. A continuidade e a abrangência de cuidados foram difundidos e mantidos ao longo do processo de cuidados. Este Departamento pode ser considerado um exemplo de como proporcionar tratamento digno e eficiente, e uma referência para futuros serviços de psiquiatria.-------------- ABSTRACT: Mental health disorders are common, universal, and associated with heavy personal, family, social and economic burden. Mental health services should be aimed at adequately addressing patients’ and families’ needs at clinical and social level. The current study was carried out at a time of great transformation in the health and mental health systems in Portugal, in a Psychiatric Department developed taking in consideration the WHO principles. The objectives included characterizing: 1) the Psychiatric Department’s different units; 2) the patients admitted for the first time to the inpatient unit; 3) their use of community mental health services after discharge; and 4) assessing some of the department’s quality indicators, with resource to Donabedian’s Structure-Process-Outcome model. Methodology: A retrospective cohort design was chosen. All the firstly admitted patients in the period between 2008 and 2010 were included in the study. Their clinical records and the hospital’s database which registers all of the contacts the patients had with the mental health professionals during the study period, were reviewed to retrieve sociodemographic and clinical data and information on follow-up. The instruments used were the WHO International Classification of Mental Health Care (ICMHC) to characterize the department, the Initial Nurses’ Assessment in Mental Health and Psychiatry (AIESMP) for patients’ sociodemographic data, and the Verona Service Satisfaction Scale (VSSS) to assess patients’ satisfaction with care received. Statistical analysis included descriptive, quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data. Results: The Department’s Functional units revealed high levels of articulation, and were consistent with patients’ needs for psychiatric care and psychosocial rehabilitation. The 543 patients firstly admitted were mainly (56.9%) female, Caucasian (81.2%), diagnosed with mood disorders (66.3%), voluntarily admitted (59.7%), and with a mean age of 45.1 years. Female patients were significantly older, more frequently employed, married/cohabiting and had a higher prevalence of mood disorders when compared to males. Involuntary admission was more significant in males (54.7%). Dropout rates during follow-up (4.2%) and readmission rates (2.9%) in the fortnight following discharge were lower than standards in international literature. Overall patients’ satisfaction with mental health care was positive. Conclusions: The care delivered was effective, adapted and based on the patients’ specific needs and problems. Continuity and comprehensiveness of care was endorsed and maintained throughout the care process. This department may be considered an example of both humane and effective treatment, and a reference for future psychiatric care.

Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) in Portugal:

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), a human pathogen confined to hospitals (HAMRSA) for over 30 years have been emerging worldwide in the last two decades as a leading cause of severe infections in healthy individuals in the community (CA-MRSA). Despite its clinical significance, in the beginning of our studies no information existed on the prevalence, and population structure of CA-MRSA in Portugal. Moreover, it remained to be clarified how CA-MRSA emerged in our country. In particular, it was not known if CA-MRSA emerged locally by acquisition of the staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) by established methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) in the community, if they were imported from abroad or have escaped from the hospital.(...)

Aggregating community resources of care and assistance services for the elderly population

Changes in population age structure are a major concern and represent a priority in the agendas and policies of the developed world, which are demanding for renewed models of social and healthcare as well as assistance services to the elderly population. Studies indicate that as far as possible these types of services should desirably be provided at the user’s home, and that ICT-based solutions can have tremendous impact on the delivery of new services. This paper highlight and discusses some of the main results of a project undertaken in a Portuguese Municipality that demonstrates the potential contribution of an e-Marketplace of care and assistance services to the well-being of elderly people. Studies undertaken allowed identifying the main services that should be provided by such e-Marketplace (termed GuiMarket), the relevance that the population grant to this platform and, conversely, the fact that the Digital Divide phenomena influences the potential utilization of this project (and alike projects). The findings support that there is a strong relation between age and qualifications, and between access to ICT and the intended use of GuiMarket.

Structure-property relationships in polymer nanocomposites

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciência e Engenharia de Polímeros e Compósitos

Diversity and structure of microcrustacean assemblages (Cladocera and Copepoda) and limnological variability in perennial and intermittent pools in a semi-arid region, Bahia, Brazil

Temporary wetlands undergo recurrent drought due to the scarcity of water, which disrupts the hydrological connectivity with adjacent aquatic systems. However, some environments retain water for longer periods, allowing greater persistence of the community. The current study evaluated differences in the microcrustacean assemblages and limnological variability between perennial and intermittent pools in a semi-arid region of Brazil. The abiotic features (water temperature, pH, total alkalinity, electrical conductivity and depth) of intermittent pools were affected more than perennial pools due to loss of water volume. This may have contributed to a higher average richness and diversity index in some intermittent pools and differences in the structure of the assemblages. The lowest species richness and diversity were recorded where physical factors, such as a large quantity of suspended solids and variability in the electrical conductivity of the water and pH, make the environment unsuitable for these organisms. These results suggest that community development in intermittent pools is interrupted by the dry season; when the water returns, due to rainfall or rising groundwater, each pond undergoes a different process of colonization. In these circumstances, the biological importance of temporary aquatic environments is clear, since such pools provide shelters and have an important role in the maintenance of the regional diversity of aquatic environments.

Bird community in an Araucaria forest fragment in relation to changes in the surrounding landscape in Southern Brazil

The dynamics of the bird community in a small forest fragment was evaluated along seven years in relation to changes in the surrounding landscape. The study area is an Araucaria forest fragment in Southern Brazil (state of Paraná). The sampling period covered the years 1988 through 1994 and the mark-release-recapture method was utilized. The landscape analysis was based on Landsat TM images, and changes in exotic tree plantations, native forest, open areas (agriculture, pasture, bare soil, and abandoned field), and "capoeira"(native vegetation < 2 m) were quantified. The relationship between landscape changes and changes in abundance diversity of forest birds, open-area birds, forest-edge birds, and bamboo specialists was evaluated. Richness estimates were run for each year studied. The richness recorded in the study area comprised 96 species. The richness estimates were 114, 118 and 110 species for Chao 1, Jackknife 1 and Bootstrap, respectively. The bird community varied in species richness, abundance and diversity from year to year. As for species diversity, 1991, 1993 and 1994 were significantly different from the other years. Changes in the landscape contributed to the increase in abundance and richness for the groups of forest, open-area and bamboo-specialist species. An important factor discussed was the effect of the flowering of "taquara" (Poaceae), which contributed significantly to increasing richness of bamboo seed eaters, mainly in 1992 and 1993. In general, the results showed that landscape changes affected the dynamics and structure of the bird community of this forest fragment over time, and proved to have an important role in conservation of the avian community in areas of intensive forestry and agricultural activities.

Modelling the distribution of bats in relation to landscape structure in a temperate mountain environment

1. Landscape modification is often considered the principal cause of population decline in many bat species. Thus, schemes for bat conservation rely heavily on knowledge about species-landscape relationships. So far, however, few studies have quantified the possible influence of landscape structure on large-scale spatial patterns in bat communities. 2. This study presents quantitative models that use landscape structure to predict (i) spatial patterns in overall community composition and (ii) individual species' distributions through canonical correspondence analysis and generalized linear models, respectively. A geographical information system (GIS) was then used to draw up maps of (i) overall community patterns and (ii) distribution of potential species' habitats. These models relied on field data from the Swiss Jura mountains. 3. Fight descriptors of landscape structure accounted for 30% of the variation in bat community composition. For some species, more than 60% of the variance in distribution could be explained by landscape structure. Elevation, forest or woodland cover, lakes and suburbs, were the most frequent predictors. 4. This study shows that community composition in bats is related to landscape structure through species-specific relationships to resources. Due to their nocturnal activities and the difficulties of remote identification, a comprehensive bat census is rarely possible, and we suggest that predictive modelling of the type described here provides an indispensable conservation tool.

Strategic Review of Medical Training and Career Structure Final Report

  Final report of the Strategic Review Working Group chaired by Professor Brian MacCraith (President, DCU) This final report focuses on issues relating to strategic medical workforce planning and career planning and mentoring supports for trainee doctors and makes recommendations. It also addresses specific issues in relation to the specialties of public health medicine, general practice and the community-based aspects of psychiatry.   Download the report here.  

Where do these bugs come from? Phenotypic structure ofTriatoma infestans populations after control interventions in the Argentine Chaco

House re-invasion by native triatomines after insecticide-based control campaigns represents a major threat for Chagas disease vector control. We conducted a longitudinal intervention study in a rural section (Area III, 407 houses) of Pampa del Indio, northeastern Argentina, and used wing geometric morphometry to compare pre-spray and post-spray (re-infestant bugs) Triatoma infestanspopulations. The community-wide spraying with pyrethroids reduced the prevalence of house infestation by T. infestans from 31.9% to < 1% during a four-year follow-up, unlike our previous studies in the neighbouring Area I. Two groups of bug collection sites differing in wing shape variables before interventions (including 221 adults from 11 domiciles) were used as a reference for assigning 44 post-spray adults. Wing shape variables from post-spray, high-density bug colonies and pre-spray groups were significantly different, suggesting that re-infestant insects had an external origin. Insects from one house differed strongly in wing shape variables from all other specimens. A further comparison between insects from both areas supported the existence of independent re-infestation processes within the same district. These results point to local heterogeneities in house re-infestation dynamics and emphasise the need to expand the geographic coverage of vector surveillance and control operations to the affected region.

The mycorrhizal contribution to plant productivity, plant nutrition and soil structure in experimental grassland.

Previous studies have shown that arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) can influence plant diversity and ecosystem productivity. However, little is known about the effects of AMF and different AMF taxa on other important community properties such as nutrient acquisition, plant survival and soil structure. We established experimental grassland microcosms and tested the impact of AMF and of different AMF taxa on a number of grassland characteristics. We also tested whether plant species benefited from the same or different AMF taxa in subsequent growing seasons. AMF enhanced phosphorus acquisition, soil aggregation and survival of several plant species, but AMF did not increase total plant productivity. Moreover, AMF increased nitrogen acquisition by some plant species, but AMF had no effect on total N uptake by the plant community. Plant growth responses to AMF were temporally variable and some plant species obtained the highest biomass with different AMF in different years. Hence the results indicate that it may be beneficial for a plant to be colonized by different AMF taxa in different seasons. This study shows that AMF play a key role in grassland by improving plant nutrition and soil structure, and by regulating the make-up of the plant community.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Occurrence and Structure of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungal Communities in Cassava after Cultivation of Cover Crops as Observed by the “PCR-DGGE” Technique

ABSTRACT Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is a highly mycotrophic crop, and prior soil cover may affect the density of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMFs), as well as the composition of the AMFs community in the soil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence and the structure of AMFs communities in cassava grown after different cover crops, and the effect of the cover crop on mineral nutrition and cassava yield under an organic farming system. The occurrence and structure of the AMFs community was evaluated through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). A randomized block experimental design was used with four replications. Six different cover crop management systems before cassava were evaluated: black oats, vetch, oilseed radish, intercropped oats + vetch, intercropped oats + vetch + oilseed radish, plus a control (fallow) treatment mowed every 15 days. Oats as a single crop or oats intercropped with vetch or with oilseed radish increased AMFs inoculum potential in soil with a low number of propagules, thus benefiting mycorrhizal colonization of cassava root. The treatments did not affect the structure of AMFs communities in the soil since the AMFs communities were similar in cassava roots in succession to different cover crops. AMFs colonization was high despite high P availability in the soil. The cassava crop yield was above the regional average, and P levels in the leaves were adequate, regardless of which cover crop treatments were used. One cover crop cycle prior to the cassava crop was not enough to observe a significant response in variables, P in plant tissue, crop yield, and occurrence and structure of AMFs communities in the soil. In the cassava roots in succession, the plant developmental stage affected the groupings of the structure of the AMF community.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results