Pay-as-you-go social security and the distribution of bequests

This paper studies the impact of an unfunded social security system on the distribution of bequests in a framework where savings are due both by life cycle and by random altruistic motivations. We show that the impact of social security on the distribution of bequests depends crucially on the importance of the bequest motive in explaining savings behavior. If the bequest motive is strong, then an increase in the social security tax raises the bequests left by altruistic parents. On the other hand, when the importance of bequests in motivating savings is sufficiently low, theincrease in the social security tax could result in a reduction of the bequests left by altruistic parents under some conditions on the attitude of individuals toward risk and on the relative returns associated with private saving and social security. Some implications concerning the transitional effects of introducing an unfunded social security scheme are also discussed.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care: external validation of a clinical prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: The Marburg Heart Score (MHS) aims to assist GPs in safely ruling out coronary heart disease (CHD) in patients presenting with chest pain, and to guide management decisions. AIM: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS in an independent sample and to evaluate the generalisability to new patients. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional diagnostic study with delayed-type reference standard in general practice in Hesse, Germany. METHOD: Fifty-six German GPs recruited 844 males and females aged ≥ 35 years, presenting between July 2009 and February 2010 with chest pain. Baseline data included the items of the MHS. Data on the subsequent course of chest pain, investigations, hospitalisations, and medication were collected over 6 months and were reviewed by an independent expert panel. CHD was the reference condition. Measures of diagnostic accuracy included the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and predictive values. RESULTS: The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.80 to 0.88). For a cut-off value of 3, the MHS showed a sensitivity of 89.1% (95% CI = 81.1% to 94.0%), a specificity of 63.5% (95% CI = 60.0% to 66.9%), a positive predictive value of 23.3% (95% CI = 19.2% to 28.0%), and a negative predictive value of 97.9% (95% CI = 96.2% to 98.9%). CONCLUSION: Considering the diagnostic accuracy of the MHS, its generalisability, and ease of application, its use in clinical practice is recommended.

Impact of etanercept-methotrexate therapy on patient-reported outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis patients with up to 12 months of symptoms.

Background/Purpose: Patient-reported outcomes (PROs) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are critical in evaluating RA treatment effects on function and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL). Significant improvement in PROs has been reported in RA studies of biologic agents, including etanercept (ETN), but most studies have been conducted in patients with established disease. In addition to assessing treatment effects in early RA, there is interest in therapeutic strategies that allow dose reduction or withdrawal of biologic therapy (biologic-free) after induction of response. The PRIZE trial is an ongoing, 3-period study to evaluate the efficacy of combined ETN and methotrexate (MTX) therapy in patients with early, moderate-to-severe RA and to assess whether efficacy (remission) can be maintained with ETN dose reduction or biologic-free (Period 2) or drug-free (Period 3). Herein we report PROs associated with ETN 50 mg QW plus MTX (ETN50/MTX) therapy administered for 52 wks in Period 1 (induction) of the PRIZE trial. Methods: In Period 1, MTX- and biologic-naı‥ve patients with early, active RA (symptom onset 12 mo from enrollment; DAS28 _3.2) received open-label ETN50/MTX for 52 wks. The starting dose of MTX was 10 mg QW; at the discretion of the investigator, titration was permitted up to a maximum of 25 mg QW to achieve remission. Corticosteroid boosts were administered to patients not achieving low disease state at wks 13 and 26, unless contraindicated or not tolerated. PROs were assessed using the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) total score; Patient Acceptable Symptom State (PASS); EuroQol-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) total index; Short Form Health Survey (SF-36); Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy (FACIT)-Fatigue; Work Instability Scale for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RAWIS); and Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire: Rheumatoid Arthritis (WPAI:RA). Results: A total of 306 patients received treatment in Period 1 (mITT population); 222 (73%) patients completed the period. The majority of patients were female (70%), with a mean age of 50 y, mean DAS28 of 6.0 (median, 6.0), and duration of disease symptoms from onset of 6.5 months (median, 6.3 mo). Significant and clinically meaningful improvements in PROs, including in HAQ, EQ-5D, SF-36, and FACIT-Fatigue, were demonstrated with ETN50/MTX therapy from baseline to the final on therapy visit (Table; P_0.0001). Similar improvements were observed in all dimensions of RA-WIS and WPAI:RA (Table; P_0.0001). Conclusion: Combination therapy with ETN50/MTX for 52 wks in patients with _12 mo of symptomatic, active RA resulted in significant, clinically important improvements in measures of physical function, including normal HAQ (66.6% of patients), HR-QoL, fatigue, and work productivity. These outcomes are consistent with those reported in prior studies in patients with more established disease.

Energy security of the Baltic States

Energy security is an important topic on the world agenda and has augmented its importance since the term “peak oil” was coined. Energy security is a crucial issue for most countries but some are more dependent on foreign supply than others. Traditionally, the Baltic States have been dependent on Russia for much of their oil and gas supplies, which makes them vulnerable to political pressure. Therefore, energy security, that is ensuring sufficient supply and safe delivery and in this case reduce dependency on a single provider – Russia, entails a conspicuous foreign policy dimension. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been described as energy islands within the EU. This paper tries to answer the question if energy security of the Baltic States has improved since their accession to the EU in 2004. Additionally, it will analyse the prospects of energy security, noting that one of the Lithuanian aims during its European presidency in 2013 is to improve energy security of the Baltic States by fostering cooperation with EU member states.

Do Objective Measures of Blood Alcohol Concentrations Make More Sense than Self-reports in Emergency Department Studies?

Purpose: Concerns about self-reports have led to calls for objective measures of blood alcohol concentration (BAC). The present study compared objective measures with self-reports. Methods: BAC from breath or blood samples were obtained from 272 randomly sampled injured patients who were admitted to a Swiss emergency department (ED). Self-reports were compared a) between those providing and refusing a BAC test, and b) to estimated peak BAC (EPBAC) values based on BACs using the Widmark formula. Results: Those providing BACs were significantly (P < 0.05) younger, more often male, and less often reported alcohol consumption before injury, but consumed higher quantities when drinking. Eighty-eight percent of those with BAC measures gave consistent reports (positive or negative). Significantly more patients reported consumption with negative BAC measures (N = 29) than vice versa (N = 3). Duration of consumption and times between injury and BAC measurement predicted EPBAC better than did the objective BAC measure. Conclusions: There is little evidence that patients who provide objective BAC measures deliberately conceal consumption. ED studies must rely on self-reports, eg, take the time period between injury and ED admission into account. Clearly, objective measures are of clinical relevance, eg, to provide optimal treatment in the ED. However, they may be less relevant to establishing effects in an epidemiologic sense, such as estimating risk relationships. In this respect, efforts to increase the validity and reliability of self-reports should be preferred over the collection of additional objective measures.

The use of flexible quantile-based measures in risk assessment

A new family of distortion risk measures -GlueVaR- is proposed in Belles- Sampera et al. -2013- to procure a risk assessment lying between those provided by common quantile-based risk measures. GlueVaR risk measures may be expressed as a combination of these standard risk measures. We show here that this relationship may be used to obtain approximations of GlueVaR measures for general skewed distribution functions using the Cornish-Fisher expansion. A subfamily of GlueVaR measures satisfies the tail-subadditivity property. An example of risk measurement based on real insurance claim data is presented, where implications of tail-subadditivity in the aggregation of risks are illustrated.

Extension and evaluation of JXTA protocols for supporting reliable P2P distributed computing

Peer-reviewed

Management of Exceptions on Access Control Policies

Peer-reviewed

Incidence of deep vein thrombosis and quality of venous thromboembolism prophylaxis

OBJECTIVE: to determine the incidence of deep vein thrombosis and prophylaxis quality in hospitalized patients undergoing vascular and orthopedic surgical procedures. METHODS: we evaluated 296 patients, whose incidence of deep venous thrombosis was studied by vascular ultrasonography. Risk factors for venous thrombosis were stratified according the Caprini model. To assess the quality of prophylaxis we compared the adopted measures with the prophylaxis guidelines of the American College of Chest Physicians. RESULTS: the overall incidence of deep venous thrombosis was 7.5%. As for the risk groups, 10.8% were considered low risk, 14.9%moderate risk, 24.3% high risk and 50.5% very high risk. Prophylaxis of deep venous thrombosis was correct in 57.7%. In groups of high and very high risk, adequate prophylaxis rates were 72.2% and 71.6%, respectively. Excessive use of chemoprophylaxis was seen in 68.7% and 61.4% in the low and moderate-risk groups, respectively. CONCLUSION: although most patients are deemed to be at high and very high risk for deep vein thrombosis, deficiency in the application of prophylaxis persists in medical practice.

New threats - old routines : bureaucratic adaptability in the security policy environment

Within the framework of state security policy, the focus of this dissertation are the relations between how new security threats are perceived and the policy planning and bureaucratic implementation that are designed to address them. In addition, this thesis explores and studies some of the inertias that might exist in the core of the state apparatus as it addresses new threats and how these could be better managed. The dissertation is built on five thematic and interrelated articles highlighting different aspects of when new significant national security threats are detected by different governments until the threats on the policy planning side translate into protective measures within the society. The timeline differs widely between different countries and some key aspects of this process are also studied. One focus concerns mechanisms for adaptability within the Intelligence Community, another on the policy planning process within the Cabinet Offices/National Security Councils and the third focus is on the planning process and how policy is implemented within the bureaucracy. The issue of policy transfer is also analysed, revealing that there is some imitation of innovation within governmental structures and policies, for example within the field of cyber defence. The main findings of the dissertation are that this context has built-in inertias and bureaucratic seams found in most government bureaucratic machineries. As much of the information and planning measures imply security classification of the transparency and internal debate on these issues, alternative assessments become limited. To remedy this situation, the thesis recommends ways to improve the decision-making system in order to streamline the processes involved in making these decisions. Another special focus of the thesis concerns the role of the public policy think tanks in the United States as an instrument of change in the country’s national security decision-making environment, which is viewed from the perspective as being a possible source of new ideas and innovation. The findings in this part are based on unique interviews data on how think tanks become successful and influence the policy debate in a country such as the United States. It appears clearly that in countries such as the United States think tanks smooth the decision making processes, and that this model with some adaptations also might be transferrable to other democratic countries.