An MMP13-selective inhibitor delays primary tumor growth and the onset of tumor-associated osteolytic lesions in experimental models of breast cancer

We investigated the effects of the matrix metalloproteinase 13 (MMP13)-selective inhibitor, 5-(4-{4-[4-(4-fluorophenyl)-1,3-oxazol-2-yl]phenoxy}phenoxy)-5-(2-methoxyethyl) pyrimidine-2,4,6(1H,3H,5H)-trione (Cmpd-1), on the primary tumor growth and breast cancer-associated bone remodeling using xenograft and syngeneic mouse models. We used human breast cancer MDA-MB-231 cells inoculated into the mammary fat pad and left ventricle of BALB/c Nu/Nu mice, respectively, and spontaneously metastasizing 4T1.2-Luc mouse mammary cells inoculated into mammary fat pad of BALB/c mice. In a prevention setting, treatment with Cmpd-1 markedly delayed the growth of primary tumors in both models, and reduced the onset and severity of osteolytic lesions in the MDA-MB-231 intracardiac model. Intervention treatment with Cmpd-1 on established MDA-MB-231 primary tumors also significantly inhibited subsequent growth. In contrast, no effects of Cmpd-1 were observed on soft organ metastatic burden following intracardiac or mammary fat pad inoculations of MDA-MB-231 and 4T1.2-Luc cells respectively. MMP13 immunostaining of clinical primary breast tumors and experimental mice tumors revealed intra-tumoral and stromal expression in most tumors, and vasculature expression in all. MMP13 was also detected in osteoblasts in clinical samples of breast-to-bone metastases. The data suggest that MMP13-selective inhibitors, which lack musculoskeletal side effects, may have therapeutic potential both in primary breast cancer and cancer-induced bone osteolysis.

A comparison of mathematical models for phase separation in high-rate LiFePO4 cathodes

We construct a two-scale mathematical model for modern, high-rate LiFePO4cathodes. We attempt to validate against experimental data using two forms of the phase-field model developed recently to represent the concentration of Li+ in nano-sized LiFePO4crystals. We also compare this with the shrinking-core based model we developed previously. Validating against high-rate experimental data, in which electronic and electrolytic resistances have been reduced is an excellent test of the validity of the crystal-scale model used to represent the phase-change that may occur in LiFePO4material. We obtain poor fits with the shrinking-core based model, even with fitting based on “effective” parameter values. Surprisingly, using the more sophisticated phase-field models on the crystal-scale results in poorer fits, though a significant parameter regime could not be investigated due to numerical difficulties. Separate to the fits obtained, using phase-field based models embedded in a two-scale cathodic model results in “many-particle” effects consistent with those reported recently.

Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.

Methodology for developing real-time motorway traffic risk identification models using individual-vehicle data

Most of existing motorway traffic safety studies using disaggregate traffic flow data aim at developing models for identifying real-time traffic risks by comparing pre-crash and non-crash conditions. One of serious shortcomings in those studies is that non-crash conditions are arbitrarily selected and hence, not representative, i.e. selected non-crash data might not be the right data comparable with pre-crash data; the non-crash/pre-crash ratio is arbitrarily decided and neglects the abundance of non-crash over pre-crash conditions; etc. Here, we present a methodology for developing a real-time MotorwaY Traffic Risk Identification Model (MyTRIM) using individual vehicle data, meteorological data, and crash data. Non-crash data are clustered into groups called traffic regimes. Thereafter, pre-crash data are classified into regimes to match with relevant non-crash data. Among totally eight traffic regimes obtained, four highly risky regimes were identified; three regime-based Risk Identification Models (RIM) with sufficient pre-crash data were developed. MyTRIM memorizes the latest risk evolution identified by RIM to predict near future risks. Traffic practitioners can decide MyTRIM’s memory size based on the trade-off between detection and false alarm rates. Decreasing the memory size from 5 to 1 precipitates the increase of detection rate from 65.0% to 100.0% and of false alarm rate from 0.21% to 3.68%. Moreover, critical factors in differentiating pre-crash and non-crash conditions are recognized and usable for developing preventive measures. MyTRIM can be used by practitioners in real-time as an independent tool to make online decision or integrated with existing traffic management systems.

Beyond tasks and gateways: discovering BPMN models with subprocesses, boundary events and activity markers

Existing techniques for automated discovery of process models from event logs largely focus on extracting flat process models. In other words, they fail to exploit the notion of subprocess, as well as structured error handling and repetition constructs provided by contemporary process modeling notations, such as the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN). This paper presents a technique for automated discovery of BPMN models containing subprocesses, interrupting and non-interrupting boundary events, and loop and multi-instance markers. The technique analyzes dependencies between data attributes associated with events, in order to identify subprocesses and to extract their associated logs. Parent process and subprocess models are then discovered separately using existing techniques for flat process model discovery. Finally, the resulting models and logs are heuristically analyzed in order to identify boundary events and markers. A validation with one synthetic and two real-life logs shows that process models derived using the proposed technique are more accurate and less complex than those derived with flat process model discovery techniques.

Models for studying cellular invasion of basement membranes

Invasion of extracellular matrices is crucial to a number of physiological and pathophysiological states, including tumor cell metastasis, arthritis, embryo implantation, wound healing, and early development. To isolate invasion from the additional complexities of these scenarios a number of in vitro invasion assays have been developed over the years. Early studies employed intact tissues, like denuded amniotic membrane (1) or embryonic chick heart fragments (2), however recently, purified matrix components or complex matrix extracts have been used to provide more uniform and often more rapid analyses (for examples, see the following integrin studies). Of course, the more holistic view of invasion offered in the earlier assays is valuable and cannot be fully reproduced in these more rapid assays, but advantages of reproducibility among replicates, ease of preparation and analysis, and overall high throughput favor the newer assays. In this chapter, we will focus on providing detailed protocols for Matrigel-based assays (Matrigel=reconstituted basement membrane; reviewed in ref. (3)). Matrigel is an extract from the transplantable Engelbreth-Holm-Swarm murine sarcoma that deposits a multilammelar basement membrane. Matrigel is available commercially (Becton Dickinson, Bedford, MA), and can be manipulated as a liquid at 4°C into a variety of different formats. Alternatively, cell culture inserts precoated with Matrigel can be purchased for even greater simplicity.

Accurately defining the reference condition for summary biotic metrics: A comparison of four approaches

Protocols for bioassessment often relate changes in summary metrics that describe aspects of biotic assemblage structure and function to environmental stress. Biotic assessment using multimetric indices now forms the basis for setting regulatory standards for stream quality and a range of other goals related to water resource management in the USA and elsewhere. Biotic metrics are typically interpreted with reference to the expected natural state to evaluate whether a site is degraded. It is critical that natural variation in biotic metrics along environmental gradients is adequately accounted for, in order to quantify human disturbance-induced change. A common approach used in the IBI is to examine scatter plots of variation in a given metric along a single stream size surrogate and a fit a line (drawn by eye) to form the upper bound, and hence define the maximum likely value of a given metric in a site of a given environmental characteristic (termed the 'maximum species richness line' - MSRL). In this paper we examine whether the use of a single environmental descriptor and the MSRL is appropriate for defining the reference condition for a biotic metric (fish species richness) and for detecting human disturbance gradients in rivers of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. We compare the accuracy and precision of the MSRL approach based on single environmental predictors, with three regression-based prediction methods (Simple Linear Regression, Generalised Linear Modelling and Regression Tree modelling) that use (either singly or in combination) a set of landscape and local scale environmental variables as predictors of species richness. We compared the frequency of classification errors from each method against set biocriteria and contrast the ability of each method to accurately reflect human disturbance gradients at a large set of test sites. The results of this study suggest that the MSRL based upon variation in a single environmental descriptor could not accurately predict species richness at minimally disturbed sites when compared with SLR's based on equivalent environmental variables. Regression-based modelling incorporating multiple environmental variables as predictors more accurately explained natural variation in species richness than did simple models using single environmental predictors. Prediction error arising from the MSRL was substantially higher than for the regression methods and led to an increased frequency of Type I errors (incorrectly classing a site as disturbed). We suggest that problems with the MSRL arise from the inherent scoring procedure used and that it is limited to predicting variation in the dependent variable along a single environmental gradient.

Development and application of a predictive model of freshwater fish assemblage composition to evaluate river health in eastern Australia

Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).

A comparison of three models for mine water management

Water management is vital for mine sites both for production and sustainability related issues. Effective water management is a complex task since the role of water on mine sites is multifaceted. Computers models are tools that represent mine site water interaction and can be used by mine sites to inform or evaluate their water management strategies. There exist several types of models that can be used to represent mine site water interactions. This paper presents three such models: an operational model, an aggregated systems model and a generic systems model. For each model the paper provides a description and example followed by an analysis of its advantages and disadvantages. The paper hypotheses that since no model is optimal for all situations, each model should be applied in situations where it is most appropriate based upon the scale of water interactions being investigated, either unit (operation), inter-site (aggregated systems) or intra-site (generic systems).

Vertical alignment of process models – how can we get there?

There is a wide variety of drivers for business process modelling initiatives, reaching from business evolution and process optimisation over compliance checking and process certification to process enactment. That, in turn, results in models that differ in content due to serving different purposes. In particular, processes are modelled on different abstraction levels and assume different perspectives. Vertical alignment of process models aims at handling these deviations. While the advantages of such an alignment for inter-model analysis and change propagation are out of question, a number of challenges has still to be addressed. In this paper, we discuss three main challenges for vertical alignment in detail. Against this background, the potential application of techniques from the field of process integration is critically assessed. Based thereon, we identify specific research questions that guide the design of a framework for model alignment.

Integrated access control for smart buildings using building information models

This thesis investigates the use of building information models for access control and security applications in critical infrastructures and complex building environments. It examines current problems in security management for physical and logical access control and proposes novel solutions that exploit the detailed information available in building information models. The project was carried out as part of the Airports of the Future Project and the research was modelled based on real-world problems identified in collaboration with our industry partners in the project.

Service innovation and business models

Western economies are highly dependent on service innovation for their growth and employment. An important driver for economic growth is, therefore, the development of new, innovative services like electronic services, mobile end-user services, new financial or personalized services. Service innovation joins four trends that currently shape the western economies: the growing importance of services, the need for innovation, changes in consumer and business markets, and the advancements in information and communication technology (ICT).

A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models.

Semiparametric estimation of count regression models

This paper develops a semiparametric estimation approach for mixed count regression models based on series expansion for the unknown density of the unobserved heterogeneity. We use the generalized Laguerre series expansion around a gamma baseline density to model unobserved heterogeneity in a Poisson mixture model. We establish the consistency of the estimator and present a computational strategy to implement the proposed estimation techniques in the standard count model as well as in truncated, censored, and zero-inflated count regression models. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the finite sample behavior of the estimator is quite good. The paper applies the method to a model of individual shopping behavior. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Survival models of community tenure and length of hospital stay for the seriously mentally ill : a 10-year perspective

Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.