How different are the correlates of onset and continuation of civil wars?

It is very common to analyse the factors associated with the onset and continuation of civil wars entirely separately, as if there were likely to be no similarity between them. This is an overstatement of the theoretical position, which has established only that they may be different (i.e. less than perfectly correlated). The hypothesis that the explanatory variables are the same is not theoretically excludable and is empirically testable, both for individual variables and for combinations of them. Starting from this approach yields a rather different picture of the factors associated with the continuation of civil wars, because the relatively small sample size means that confidence intervals on individual coefficients are wide in this case. It is shown here that country size, mountainous terrain and (in most datasets) ethnic diversity seem significant for the continuation of civil wars, starting from the null hypothesis that variables affect onset and continuation probabilities identically, rather than entirely independently. One variable that affects onset and continuation significantly differently is anocracy, which we find to matter only for onset. Civil war is more likely if it occurred two years previously, as well as one year previously, which indicates that wars are more likely to restart after only one year of peace, and also more likely to stop in their first year. The combined model strengthens the result that ethnic diversity matters (it is consistently significant across datasets, whereas it is not when onset is analysed separately), although in the UCD/PRIO dataset it is significant only for onset. By contrast, if continuation is analysed independently, virtually nothing is significant except a pre-1991 dummy and a dummy for civil war two years previously.

A preliminary structural design procedure for laser beam welded airframe stiffened panels

Initial sizing procedures for aircraft stiffened panels that include the influence of welding fabrication residual process effects are missing. Herein, experimental and Finite Element analyses are coupled to generate knowledge to formulate an accurate and computationally efficient sizing procedure which will enable designers to routinely consider panel fabrication, via welding, accounting for the complex distortions and stresses induced by this manufacturing process. Validating experimental results demonstrate the need to consider welding induced material property degradation, residual stresses and distortions, as these can reduce static strength performance. However, results from fuselage and wing trade-studies, using the validated sizing procedure, establish that these potential reductions in strength performance may be overcome through local geometric tailoring during initial sizing, negating any weight penalty for the majority of design scenarios.

The Government – Voluntary Sector Compacts: Governance, Governmentality and Civil Society

In 1998 government and the main representatives of the voluntary sector in each of the four countries in the United Kingdom published "compacts" on relations between government and the voluntary sector. These were joint documents, carrying forward ideas expressed by the Labor Party when in opposition, and directed at developing a new relationship for partnership with those "not-for-profit organizations" that are involved primarily in the areas of policy and service delivery. This article seeks to use an examination of the compacts, and the processes that produced them and that they have now set in train, to explore some of the wider issues about the changing role of government and its developing relationships with civil society. In particular, it argues that the new partnership builds upon a movement from welfarism to economism which is being developed further through the compact process. Drawing upon a governmentality approach, and illustrating the account with interview material obtained from some of those involved in compact issues from within both government and those umbrella groups which represent the voluntary sector, an argument is made that this overall process represents the beginning of a new reconfiguration of the state that is of considerable constitutional significance.

Surgical optimisation and characterisation of a minimally invasive aortic banding procedure to induce cardiac hypertrophy in mice

Left ventricular pressure overload in response to aortic banding is an invaluable model for studying progression of cardiac hypertrophy and transition to heart failure. Traditional aortic banding has recently been superceded by minimally invasive transverse aortic banding (MTAB) which does not require ventilation so is less technically challenging. Although the MTAB procedure is superior, few laboratories have documented success and minimal information on the model is available. The aim of this study was to optimise conditions for MTAB and to characterise the development and progression of cardiac hypertrophy. Isofluorane proved the most suitable anaesthetic for MTAB surgery in mice and one week after surgery MTAB animals showed significant increases in systolic blood pressure (110±6 v's 78±3(mmHg), MTAB v's sham, n=7,p

Concrete building blocks made with recycled demolition aggregate

A study undertaken at the University of Liverpool has investigated the potential for using recycled demolition aggregate in the manufacture of precast concrete building blocks. Recycled aggregates derived from construction and demolition waste (C&DW) can be used to replace quarried limestone aggregate, usually used in coarse (6 mm) and fine (4 mm-to-dust) gradings. The manufacturing process used in factories, for large-scale production, involves a “vibro-compaction” casting procedure, using a relatively dry concrete mix with low cement content (˜100 kg/m3). Trials in the laboratory successfully replicated the manufacturing process using a specially modified electric hammer drill to compact the concrete mix into oversize steel moulds to produce blocks of the same physical and mechanical properties as the commercial blocks. This enabled investigations of the effect of partially replacing newly quarried with recycled demolition aggregate on the compressive strength of building blocks to be carried out in the laboratory. Levels of replacement of newly quarried with recycled demolition aggregate have been determined that will not have significant detrimental effect on the mechanical properties. Factory trials showed that there were no practical problems with the use of recycled demolition aggregate in the manufacture of building blocks. The factory strengths obtained confirmed that the replacement levels selected, based on the laboratory work, did not cause any significant strength reduction, i.e. there was no requirement to increase the cement content to maintain the required strength, and therefore there would be no additional cost to the manufacturers if they were to use recycled demolition aggregate for their routine concrete building block production.

In-situ strength assessment of concrete - The European Concrete Frame Building Project (Reprinted from Non-Destructive Testing Civil Engineering, April, pg 583-592, 2000)

A full-scale seven-storey in-situ advanced reinforced concrete building frame was constructed in the Building Research Establishment's Cardington laboratory encompassing a range of different concrete mixes and construction techniques. This provided an opportunity to use in-situ non-destructive test methods, namely Lok and CAPO tests, on a systematic basis during the construction of the building. They were used in conjunction with both standard and temperature-matched cube specimens to assess their practicality and their individual capabilities under field conditions. Results have been analysed and presented to enable comparisons of the performance of the individual test methods employed.