896 resultados para Causal Explanations Of Cannabis Use
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The method of instrumental variable (referred to as Mendelian randomization when the instrument is a genetic variant) has been initially developed to infer on a causal effect of a risk factor on some outcome of interest in a linear model. Adapting this method to nonlinear models, however, is known to be problematic. In this paper, we consider the simple case when the genetic instrument, the risk factor, and the outcome are all binary. We compare via simulations the usual two-stages estimate of a causal odds-ratio and its adjusted version with a recently proposed estimate in the context of a clinical trial with noncompliance. In contrast to the former two, we confirm that the latter is (under some conditions) a valid estimate of a causal odds-ratio defined in the subpopulation of compliers, and we propose its use in the context of Mendelian randomization. By analogy with a clinical trial with noncompliance, compliers are those individuals for whom the presence/absence of the risk factor X is determined by the presence/absence of the genetic variant Z (i.e., for whom we would observe X = Z whatever the alleles randomly received at conception). We also recall and illustrate the huge variability of instrumental variable estimates when the instrument is weak (i.e., with a low percentage of compliers, as is typically the case with genetic instruments for which this proportion is frequently smaller than 10%) where the inter-quartile range of our simulated estimates was up to 18 times higher compared to a conventional (e.g., intention-to-treat) approach. We thus conclude that the need to find stronger instruments is probably as important as the need to develop a methodology allowing to consistently estimate a causal odds-ratio.
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Background: C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Whether CRP is causally associated with CHD or merely a marker of underlying atherosclerosis is uncertain. Methods: We used a Mendelian randomisation design to investigate the causal relationship of CRP with CHD. We identified three genetic variants in the CRP locus (rs7553007, rs1130864 and rs1205) which influence CRP levels. We tested the three SNPs for association with CHD amongst 28,112 CHD cases and 100,823 controls. We then compared the observed relationship between the SNPs and CHD, with that predicted from the association of SNPs with CRP levels, and of CRP levels with CHD. Results: SNPs in the CRP locus were not associated with CHD: rs7553007, OR 0.98 (95% CI, 0.94-1.01); rs1130864, OR 1.00 (95% CI, 0.86-1.15); rs1205, OR 1.03 (95% CI, 0.99-1.07); combined OR for all three SNPs, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97-1.02), per 20% lower CRP (figure). In contrast, the predicted OR for CHD from a 20% lower CRP level is 0.94 (95% CI, 0.94- 0.95), based on meta-analysis of observational studies. Conclusions: Though CRP variants are associated with CRP levels, and CRP levels with risk of CHD, we observed that CRP variants are not associated with CHD risk. Our Mendelian randomisation experiment strongly argues against a causal association of CRP with CHD.
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Active personal dosemeters (APD) have been found to be very efficient tools to reduce occupational doses in many applications of ionizing radiation. In order to be used in interventional radiology and cardiology (IR/IC), APDs should be able to measure low energy photons and pulsed radiation with relatively high instantaneous personal dose equivalent rates. A study concerning the optimization of the use of APDs in IR/IC was performed in the framework of the ORAMED project, a Collaborative Project (2008-2011) supported by the European Commission within its 7th Framework Program. In particular, eight commercial APDs were tested in continuous and pulsed X-ray fields delivered by calibration laboratories in order to evaluate their performances. Most of APDs provide a response in pulsed mode more or less affected by the personal dose equivalent rate, which means they could be used in routine monitoring provided that correction factors are introduced. These results emphasize the importance of adding tests in pulsed mode in type-test procedures for APDs. Some general recommendations are proposed in the end of this paper for the selection and use of APDs at IR/IC workplaces.
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Remote sensing was utilized in the Phase II Cultural Resources Investigation for this project in lieu of extensive excavations. The purpose of the present report is to compare the costs and benefits of the use of remote sensing to the hypothetical use of traditional excavation methods for this project. Estimates for this hypothetical situation are based on the project archaeologist's considerable past experience in conducting similar investigations. Only that part of the Phase II investigation involving field investigations is addressed in this report. Costs for literature review, laboratory analysis, report preparation, etc., are not included. The project manager proposed the use of this technique for the fol lowing logistic, safety and budgetary reasons.
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This study investigates the potential stages of drug use. Data from the longitudinal Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors were used (N = 5,116). Drug use (alcohol, tobacco, and 16 illicit drugs) over the previous 12 months was assessed at two time points. Patterns and trajectories of drug use were studied using latent transition analysis (LTA). This study's substantive contributions are twofold. First, the pattern of drug use displayed the well-known sequence of drug involvement (licit drugs to cannabis to other illicit drugs), but with an added distinction between two kinds of illicit drugs ("middle-stage" drugs: uppers, hallucinogens, inhaled drugs; and "final-stage" drugs: heroin, ketamine, GHB/GBL, research chemicals, crystal meth, and spice). Second, subgroup membership was stable over time, as the most likely transition was remaining in the same latent class.
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Sustainable resource use is one of the most important environmental issues of our times. It is closely related to discussions on the 'peaking' of various natural resources serving as energy sources, agricultural nutrients, or metals indispensable in high-technology applications. Although the peaking theory remains controversial, it is commonly recognized that a more sustainable use of resources would alleviate negative environmental impacts related to resource use. In this thesis, sustainable resource use is analysed from a practical standpoint, through several different case studies. Four of these case studies relate to resource metabolism in the Canton of Geneva in Switzerland: the aim was to model the evolution of chosen resource stocks and flows in the coming decades. The studied resources were copper (a bulk metal), phosphorus (a vital agricultural nutrient), and wood (a renewable resource). In addition, the case of lithium (a critical metal) was analysed briefly in a qualitative manner and in an electric mobility perspective. In addition to the Geneva case studies, this thesis includes a case study on the sustainability of space life support systems. Space life support systems are systems whose aim is to provide the crew of a spacecraft with the necessary metabolic consumables over the course of a mission. Sustainability was again analysed from a resource use perspective. In this case study, the functioning of two different types of life support systems, ARES and BIORAT, were evaluated and compared; these systems represent, respectively, physico-chemical and biological life support systems. Space life support systems could in fact be used as a kind of 'laboratory of sustainability' given that they represent closed and relatively simple systems compared to complex and open terrestrial systems such as the Canton of Geneva. The chosen analysis method used in the Geneva case studies was dynamic material flow analysis: dynamic material flow models were constructed for the resources copper, phosphorus, and wood. Besides a baseline scenario, various alternative scenarios (notably involving increased recycling) were also examined. In the case of space life support systems, the methodology of material flow analysis was also employed, but as the data available on the dynamic behaviour of the systems was insufficient, only static simulations could be performed. The results of the case studies in the Canton of Geneva show the following: were resource use to follow population growth, resource consumption would be multiplied by nearly 1.2 by 2030 and by 1.5 by 2080. A complete transition to electric mobility would be expected to only slightly (+5%) increase the copper consumption per capita while the lithium demand in cars would increase 350 fold. For example, phosphorus imports could be decreased by recycling sewage sludge or human urine; however, the health and environmental impacts of these options have yet to be studied. Increasing the wood production in the Canton would not significantly decrease the dependence on wood imports as the Canton's production represents only 5% of total consumption. In the comparison of space life support systems ARES and BIORAT, BIORAT outperforms ARES in resource use but not in energy use. However, as the systems are dimensioned very differently, it remains questionable whether they can be compared outright. In conclusion, the use of dynamic material flow analysis can provide useful information for policy makers and strategic decision-making; however, uncertainty in reference data greatly influences the precision of the results. Space life support systems constitute an extreme case of resource-using systems; nevertheless, it is not clear how their example could be of immediate use to terrestrial systems.
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Purpose: To assess the relation between cannabis and tobacco consumption among adolescents in Switzerland and whether cannabis and tobacco co-users can quit cigarette smoking. Methods: Based on individual interviews and focus groups, 22 youths aged 15-20 discussed cannabis consumption behaviours. Twenty (14 males) were cannabis consumers - of which 18 also smoked tobacco and 2 quit tobacco smoking - and 2 were former cannabis consumers (both females and daily smokers). Data were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using Atlas.ti qualitative analysis software. Results: Among the co-consumers, 9 started with tobacco, 7 with cannabis, and 2 with both. The main consumption mode among all cannabis consumers is joints, while other ways of consuming such as food preparations and water pipes are rare and experimental. Joints always mix cannabis with tobacco for 3 reasons: to burn correctly, pure cannabis is too strong, and smoking cannabis alone is too expensive. Two cannabis consumers - one former tobacco smoker and one occasional tobacco smoker - consider rolling tobacco less addictive than cigarette tobacco alone, and hence use it in their joints. Overall cannabis is considered 'natural' and less harmful to health than tobacco. Thus, many users describe their wish, in the longer term, to quit tobacco consumption without excluding occasional cannabis consumption. Nonetheless, all coconsumers declare that they smoke cigarettes as a substitute for cannabis: For example, "If I don't have a joint, I need fags; if I don't have fags, I need joints; and if I don't have anything, I go crazy!" or "About 20 minutes after smoking a joint we feel like smoking something again, because in the joint there is pure tobacco without a filter as in cigarettes, and that creates a crazy dependency!". Finally, all co-consumers state that the consumption of one of the substances increases when trying to diminish the other: "A few months ago I stopped smoking joints for a month. Well I was smoking more than a pack [of cigarettes] a day." Similarly, the 2 former cannabis consumers increased their cigarette use since quitting cannabis. Conclusions: The majority of cannabis users co-consume tobacco as a way of compensating for one substance or the other. Using tobacco within joints implies that there is a risk that even occasional joints can revive nicotine addiction. Consequently, health professionals wishing to help adolescents in substance use cessation and prevention efforts should consider both substances in a global perspective. Sources of Support: Dept. of Public Health of the canton of Vaud.
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For the detection and management of osteoporosis and osteoporosis-related fractures, quantitative ultrasound (QUS) is emerging as a relatively low-cost and readily accessible alternative to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) in certain circumstances. The following is a brief, but thorough review of the existing literature with respect to the use of QUS in 6 settings: 1) assessing fragility fracture risk; 2) diagnosing osteoporosis; 3) initiating osteoporosis treatment; 4) monitoring osteoporosis treatment; 5) osteoporosis case finding; and 6) quality assurance and control. Many QUS devices exist that are quite different with respect to the parameters they measure and the strength of empirical evidence supporting their use. In general, heel QUS appears to be most tested and most effective. Overall, some, but not all, heel QUS devices are effective assessing fracture risk in some, but not all, populations, the evidence being strongest for Caucasian females over 55 years old. Otherwise, the evidence is fair with respect to certain devices allowing for the accurate diagnosis of likelihood of osteoporosis, and generally fair to poor in terms of QUS use when initiating or monitoring osteoporosis treatment. A reasonable protocol is proposed herein for case-finding purposes, which relies on a combined assessment of clinical risk factors (CR.F) and heel QUS. Finally, several recommendations are made for quality assurance and control.
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The addition of some fat co- and by-products to feeds is usual nowadays; however, the regulations of their use are not always clear and vary between countries. For instance, the use of recycled cooking oils is not allowed in the European Union, but they are used in other countries. However, oils recovered from industrial frying processes could show satisfactory quality for this purpose. Here we studied the effects of including oils recovered from the frying industry in rabbit and chicken feeds (at 30 and 60 g/kg, respectively) on the fatty acid (FA) and tocol (tocopherol + tocotrienol) compositon of meat, liver and plasma, and on their oxidative stability. Three dietary treatments (replicated eight times) were compared: fresh non-used oil (LOX); oil discarded from the frying industry, having a high content of secondary oxidation compounds (HOX); and an intermediate level (MOX) obtained by mixing 50 : 50 of LOX and HOX. The FA composition of oil diets and tissues was assessed by GC, their tocol content by HPLC, the thiobarbituric acid value was used to assess tissue oxidation status, and the ferrous oxidation-xylenol orange method was used to assess the susceptibility of tissues to oxidation. Our results indicate that FA composition of rabbit and chicken meat, liver and plasma was scarcely altered by the addition of recovered frying oils to feed. Differences were encountered in the FA composition between species, which might be attributed mainly to differences in the FA digestion, absorption and metabolism between species, and to some physiological dietary factors (i.e. coprophagy in rabbits that involves fermentation with FA structure modification). The α-tocopherol (αT) content of tissues was reduced in response to the lower αT content in the recovered frying oil. Differences in the content of other tocols were encountered between chickens and rabbits, which might be attributable to the different tocol composition of their feeds, as well as to species differences in the digestion and metabolism of tocols. Tissue oxidation and susceptibility to oxidation were in general low and were not greatly affected by the degree of oxidation of the oil added to the feeds. The relative content of polyunsaturated fatty acids/αT in these types of samples would explain the differences observed between species in the susceptibility of each tissue to oxidation. According to our results, oils recovered from the frying industry could be useful for feed uses.
Resumo:
The addition of some fat co- and by-products to feeds is usual nowadays; however, the regulations of their use are not always clear and vary between countries. For instance, the use of recycled cooking oils is not allowed in the European Union, but they are used in other countries. However, oils recovered from industrial frying processes could show satisfactory quality for this purpose. Here we studied the effects of including oils recovered from the frying industry in rabbit and chicken feeds (at 30 and 60 g/kg, respectively) on the fatty acid (FA) and tocol (tocopherol1tocotrienol) compositon of meat, liver and plasma, and on their oxidative stability. Three dietary treatments (replicated eight times) were compared: fresh non-used oil (LOX); oil discarded from the frying industry, having a high content of secondary oxidation compounds (HOX); and an intermediate level (MOX) obtained by mixing 50 : 50 of LOX and HOX. The FA composition of oil diets and tissues was assessed by GC, their tocol content by HPLC, the thiobarbituric acid value was used to assess tissue oxidation status, and the ferrous oxidation-xylenol orange method was used to assess the susceptibility of tissues to oxidation. Our results indicate that FA composition of rabbit and chicken meat, liver and plasma was scarcely altered by the addition of recovered frying oils to feed. Differences were encountered in the FA composition between species, which might be attributed mainly to differences in the FA digestion, absorption and metabolism between species, and to some physiological dietary factors (i.e. coprophagy in rabbits that involves fermentation with FA structure modification). The a-tocopherol (aT) content of tissues was reduced in response to the lower aT content in the recovered frying oil. Differences in the content of other tocols were encountered between chickens and rabbits, which might be attributable to the different tocol composition of their feeds, as well as to species differences in the digestion and metabolism of tocols. Tissue oxidation and susceptibility to oxidation were in general low and were not greatly affected by the degree of oxidation of the oil added to the feeds. The relative content of polyunsaturated fatty acids/aT in these types of samples would explain the differences observed between species in the susceptibility of each tissue to oxidation. According to our results, oils recovered from the frying industry could be useful for feed uses.
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Marijuana is the most widely used illicit drug, however its effects on cognitive functions underling safe driving remain mostly unexplored. Our goal was to evaluate the impact of cannabis on the driving ability of occasional smokers, by investigating changes in the brain network involved in a tracking task. The subject characteristics, the percentage of Δ(9)-Tetrahydrocannabinol in the joint, and the inhaled dose were in accordance with real-life conditions. Thirty-one male volunteers were enrolled in this study that includes clinical and toxicological aspects together with functional magnetic resonance imaging of the brain and measurements of psychomotor skills. The fMRI paradigm was based on a visuo-motor tracking task, alternating active tracking blocks with passive tracking viewing and rest condition. We show that cannabis smoking, even at low Δ(9)-Tetrahydrocannabinol blood concentrations, decreases psychomotor skills and alters the activity of the brain networks involved in cognition. The relative decrease of Blood Oxygen Level Dependent response (BOLD) after cannabis smoking in the anterior insula, dorsomedial thalamus, and striatum compared to placebo smoking suggests an alteration of the network involved in saliency detection. In addition, the decrease of BOLD response in the right superior parietal cortex and in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex indicates the involvement of the Control Executive network known to operate once the saliencies are identified. Furthermore, cannabis increases activity in the rostral anterior cingulate cortex and ventromedial prefrontal cortices, suggesting an increase in self-oriented mental activity. Subjects are more attracted by intrapersonal stimuli ("self") and fail to attend to task performance, leading to an insufficient allocation of task-oriented resources and to sub-optimal performance. These effects correlate with the subjective feeling of confusion rather than with the blood level of Δ(9)-Tetrahydrocannabinol. These findings bolster the zero-tolerance policy adopted in several countries that prohibits the presence of any amount of drugs in blood while driving.
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Introduction New evidence from randomized controlled and etiology of fever studies, the availability of reliable RDT for malaria, and novel technologies call for revision of the IMCI strategy. We developed a new algorithm based on (i) a systematic review of published studies assessing the safety and appropriateness of RDT and antibiotic prescription, (ii) results from a clinical and microbiological investigation of febrile children aged <5 years, (iii) international expert IMCI opinions. The aim of this study was to assess the safety of the new algorithm among patients in urban and rural areas of Tanzania.Materials and Methods The design was a controlled noninferiority study. Enrolled children aged 2-59 months with any illness were managed either by a study clinician using the new Almanach algorithm (two intervention health facilities), or clinicians using standard practice, including RDT (two control HF). At day 7 and day 14, all patients were reassessed. Patients who were ill in between or not cured at day 14 were followed until recovery or death. Primary outcome was rate of complications, secondary outcome rate of antibiotic prescriptions.Results 1062 children were recruited. Main diagnoses were URTI 26%, pneumonia 19% and gastroenteritis (9.4%). 98% (531/541) were cured at D14 in the Almanach arm and 99.6% (519/521) in controls. Rate of secondary hospitalization was 0.2% in each. One death occurred in controls. None of the complications was due to withdrawal of antibiotics or antimalarials at day 0. Rate of antibiotic use was 19% in the Almanach arm and 84% in controls.Conclusion Evidence suggests that the new algorithm, primarily aimed at the rational use of drugs, is as safe as standard practice and leads to a drastic reduction of antibiotic use. The Almanach is currently being tested for clinician adherence to proposed procedures when used on paper or a mobile phone
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Electrical Impedance Tomography (EIT) is an imaging method which enables a volume conductivity map of a subject to be produced from multiple impedance measurements. It has the potential to become a portable non-invasive imaging technique of particular use in imaging brain function. Accurate numerical forward models may be used to improve image reconstruction but, until now, have employed an assumption of isotropic tissue conductivity. This may be expected to introduce inaccuracy, as body tissues, especially those such as white matter and the skull in head imaging, are highly anisotropic. The purpose of this study was, for the first time, to develop a method for incorporating anisotropy in a forward numerical model for EIT of the head and assess the resulting improvement in image quality in the case of linear reconstruction of one example of the human head. A realistic Finite Element Model (FEM) of an adult human head with segments for the scalp, skull, CSF, and brain was produced from a structural MRI. Anisotropy of the brain was estimated from a diffusion tensor-MRI of the same subject and anisotropy of the skull was approximated from the structural information. A method for incorporation of anisotropy in the forward model and its use in image reconstruction was produced. The improvement in reconstructed image quality was assessed in computer simulation by producing forward data, and then linear reconstruction using a sensitivity matrix approach. The mean boundary data difference between anisotropic and isotropic forward models for a reference conductivity was 50%. Use of the correct anisotropic FEM in image reconstruction, as opposed to an isotropic one, corrected an error of 24 mm in imaging a 10% conductivity decrease located in the hippocampus, improved localisation for conductivity changes deep in the brain and due to epilepsy by 4-17 mm, and, overall, led to a substantial improvement on image quality. This suggests that incorporation of anisotropy in numerical models used for image reconstruction is likely to improve EIT image quality.
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Les approches multimodales dans l'imagerie cérébrale non invasive sont de plus en plus considérées comme un outil indispensable pour la compréhension des différents aspects de la structure et de la fonction cérébrale. Grâce aux progrès des techniques d'acquisition des images de Resonance Magnetique et aux nouveaux outils pour le traitement des données, il est désormais possible de mesurer plusieurs paramètres sensibles aux différentes caractéristiques des tissues cérébraux. Ces progrès permettent, par exemple, d'étudier les substrats anatomiques qui sont à la base des processus cognitifs ou de discerner au niveau purement structurel les phénomènes dégénératifs et développementaux. Cette thèse met en évidence l'importance de l'utilisation d'une approche multimodale pour étudier les différents aspects de la dynamique cérébrale grâce à l'application de cette approche à deux études cliniques: l'évaluation structurelle et fonctionnelle des effets aigus du cannabis fumé chez des consommateurs réguliers et occasionnels, et l'évaluation de l'intégrité de la substance grise et blanche chez des jeunes porteurs de la prémutations du gène FMR1 à risque de développer le FXTAS (Fragile-X Tremor Ataxia Syndrome). Nous avons montré que chez les fumeurs occasionnels de cannabis, même à faible concentration du principal composant psychoactif (THC) dans le sang, la performance lors d'une tâche visuo-motrice est fortement diminuée, et qu'il y a des changements dans l'activité des trois réseaux cérébraux impliqués dans les processus cognitifs: le réseau de saillance, le réseau du contrôle exécutif, et le réseau actif par défaut (Default Mode). Les sujets ne sont pas en mesure de saisir les saillances dans l'environnement et de focaliser leur attention sur la tâche. L'augmentation de la réponse hémodynamique dans le cortex cingulaire antérieur suggère une augmentation de l'activité introspective. Une investigation des ef¬fets au niveau cérébral d'une exposition prolongée au cannabis, montre des changements persistants de la substance grise dans les régions associées à la mémoire et au traitement des émotions. Le niveau d'atrophie dans ces structures corrèle avec la consommation de cannabis au cours des trois mois précédant l'étude. Dans la deuxième étude, nous démontrons des altérations structurelles des décennies avant l'apparition du syndrome FXTAS chez des sujets jeunes, asymptomatiques, et porteurs de la prémutation du gène FMR1. Les modifications trouvées peuvent être liées à deux mécanismes différents. Les altérations dans le réseau moteur du cervelet et dans la fimbria de l'hippocampe, suggèrent un effet développemental de la prémutation. Elles incluent aussi une atrophie de la substance grise du lobule VI du cervelet et l'altération des propriétés tissulaires de la substance blanche des projections afférentes correspondantes aux pédoncules cérébelleux moyens. Les lésions diffuses de la substance blanche cérébrale peu¬vent être un marquer précoce du développement de la maladie, car elles sont liées à un phénomène dégénératif qui précède l'apparition des symptômes du FXTAS. - Multimodal brain imaging is becoming a leading tool for understanding different aspects of brain structure and function. Thanks to the advances in Magnetic Resonance imaging (MRI) acquisition schemes and data processing techniques, it is now possible to measure different parameters sensitive to different tissue characteristics. This allows for example to investigate anatomical substrates underlying cognitive processing, or to disentangle, at a pure structural level degeneration and developmental processes. This thesis highlights the importance of using a multimodal approach for investigating different aspects of brain dynamics by applying this approach to two clinical studies: functional and structural assessment of the acute effects of cannabis smoking in regular and occasional users, and grey and white matter assessment in young FMR1 premutation carriers at risk of developing FXTAS. We demonstrate that in occasional smokers cannabis smoking, even at low concentration of the main psychoactive component (THC) in the blood, strongly decrease subjects' performance on a visuo-motor tracking task, and globally alters the activity of the three brain networks involved in cognitive processing: the Salience, the Control Executive, and the Default Mode networks. Subjects are unable to capture saliences in the environment and to orient attention to the task; the increase in Hemodynamic Response in the Anterior Cingulate Cortex suggests an increase in self-oriented mental activity. A further investigation on long term exposure to cannabis, shows a persistent grey matter modification in brain regions associated with memory and affective processing. The degree of atrophy in these structures also correlates with the estimation of drug use in the three months prior the participation to the study. In the second study we demonstrate structural changes in young asymptomatic premutation carriers decades before the onset of FXTAS that might be related to two different mechanisms. Alteration of the cerebellar motor network and of the hippocampal fimbria/ fornix, may reflect a potential neurodevelopmental effect of the premutation. These include grey matter atrophy in lobule VI and modification of white matter tissue property in the corresponding afferent projections through the Middle Cerebellar Peduncles. Diffuse hemispheric white matter lesions that seem to appear closer to the onset of FXTAS and be related to a neurodegenerative phenomenon may mark the imminent onset of FXTAS.
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BACKGROUND. So far few studies have focused on the last steps of drug-use trajectories. Heroin has been described as a final stage, but the non-medical use of prescription opioids (NMUPOs) is often associated with heroin use. There is, however, no consensus yet about which one precedes the other. AIMS. The objective of this study was to test which of these two substances was likely to be induced by the other using a prospective design. MATERIAL AND METHODS. We used data from the Swiss Longitudinal Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) to assess exposure to heroin and NMUPO at two times points (N = 5,041). Cross-lagged panel models provided evidence regarding prospective pathways between heroin and NMUPOs. Power analyses provided evidence about significance and clinical relevance. RESULTS. Results showed that heroin use predicted later NMUPO use (? = 1.217, p < 0.001) and that the reverse pathway was non-significant (? = 0.240, p = .233). Heroin use seems to be an important determinant, causing a 150% risk increase for NMUPO use at follow-up, whereas NMUPO use at baseline increases the risk of heroin use at follow-up by a mere non-significant 20%. CONCLUSIONS. Thus, heroin users were more likely to move to NMUPOs than non-heroin users, whereas NMUPO users were not likely to move to heroin use. The pathway of substance use seemed to include first heroin use, then NMUPO use.