The Ukrainian Orthodox Church's stance on the revolution and war. OSW Commentary No. 151, 27.10.2014

Volodymyr (secular name Viktor Sabodan), the Metropolitan of Kyiv and All-Ukraine, the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), which recognises the honorary primacy of the Moscow Patriarchate, died on 5 July 2014 at the age of 79. He was replaced by Metropolitan Onufry (secular name Orest Berezovsky), aged 70. The fact that this representative of the moderate trend, far from politics, was elected signifies that the UOC’s previous policy will be continued in the coming years: strengthening the Church’s independence without questioning its canonical bonds with Moscow. Metropolitan Onufry’s task is to wait out the hard times, rather than to embark upon an active policy. The political developments this year have significantly weakened pro-Russian views and sentiments among the Ukrainian public, including members of the UOC. On the other hand, they have also contributed to the radicalisation of views within firmly pro-Russian circles. The hierarchs of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church have distanced themselves from these developments. The reasons for this included a lack of unity among them as regards this issue, as well as the leadership crisis linked to Metropolitan Volodymyr’sillness. The main problems the Ukrainian Orthodox Church is facing today are as follows: meeting the expectations of those of its members who hold patriotic views (mainly the younger generation) without at the same time antagonising its numerous members who are pro-Russian; and also continuing to disregard the Kyiv Patriarchate and maintaining bonds with the Russian Orthodox Church. Therefore, we may expect the UOC to continue avoiding taking a clear stance on the present conflict, instead focusing on charity.

No change in the Russian Caucasus. The Winter Olympics amid a local war. OSW Study 47/2014

The North Caucasus has been the most unstable region of the Russian Federation since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Considering the scale of violence, the conflict in the region should be regarded as a local civil war between the Salafi Islamic armed underground and the secular authorities of the North Caucasus republics, supported by the security services. The Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who has made himself de facto independent from Moscow, holds a particularly strong position in the region and his ambition is to gain control of the neighbouring territories. The Russian leadership, which sees the security of the Winter Olympics in Sochi as its top priority, is facing a strategic choice between trying to integrate the North Caucasus with the rest of the federation, or isolating the region and accepting the existence of an informal "internal abroad” within Russia. The cultural processes taking place in the region, including Islamisation, de-modernisation and de-Russification, have been driving the North Caucasus ever further away from the rest of Russia, strengthening a mutual sense of foreignness.

"Creeping" civil war in the North Caucasus. OSW Commentary No. 50, 2011-03-15

Over the last year, the situation in Russia’s North Caucasus has become further destabilised. Attacks and armed clashes happen daily, and destabilisation is spreading to an increasingly large area. The extent of violence in the region is so great that it can already be stated that a de facto civil war is taking place, the warring parties being the Islamic armed underground movement which operates under the banner of the so-called Emirate of the North Caucasus, and the secular governments of the individual republics, who are supported by local and federal branches of the Russian Federation’s Interior Ministry and Federal Security Service. Moscow has no idea how to successfully tackle the Caucasus rebellion. Force has proved to be costly and unproductive, while the attempts made since early 2010 to integrate the region with the rest of Russia by implementing development programmes have not brought the desired results, because of widespread corruption and faint interest from businessmen who are afraid to invest in such an unsafe region. A growing problem for Moscow, particularly for the prestige of the state, is attacks by militants on areas near Sochi, where the 2014 Winter Olympics is to take place. It must be assumed that over the next 3 years before the Olympics, Moscow’s priority in the region will be to ensure the safety of Olympic preparations, and then the games themselves. It cannot be ruled out that the North Caucasus Federal District with its ‘troubled republics’ will be surrounded by a kind of cordon sanitaire (Sochi is situated in the neighbouring Southern Federal District). This could in turn strengthen these republics’ isolation, maintain the state of permanent instability, and postpone the prospects of solving the region’s acute economic and social problems.

The 'tribal areas' of the Caucasus: The North Caucasus - an enclave of 'alien civilisation' within the Russian Federation. OSW Study 34/2010

Militant Islam is currently the greatest threat to security and stability in the Russian part of the Caucasus. However, even though the armed Islamic underground is capable of organising terrorist attacks and carrying out actions of sabotage, it seems too weak to bring about any change in the Caucasus’s political status quo. Besides, militant Islam is merely a symptom (albeit the most radical and spectacular) of a much wider process, namely the widening civilisational gap between Russia and the North Caucasus, initiated by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The key elements of this process are as follows: the spontaneous re-Islamisation of social life and the dynamic growth of Islam's political influence; the de-Russification of the region; and the ongoing marginalisation of secular intellectuals. As a result, the North Caucasus, and principally Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan, are turning into an enclave separated from the rest of the Russian Federation by a growing civilisational gap, and becoming increasingly different from the rest of Russia. This situation may recall the tribal areas of Pakistan inhabited by Pashtuns (FATA) along the Afghan border.

Larry Summers’ interest rate conundrum. CEPS Hi-level Brief, 16 January 2014

Larry Summers has attracted much attention recently for invoking old theories of secular stagnation to explain the persistence of low interest rates in the recent past. The German economist Carl Christian von Weizsäcker has pointed to a retirement savings glut as the cause for low rates. In the view of Thomas Mayer, however, as expressed in this High-Level Brief, these theses lack both theoretical and empirical support and he offers as an alternative explanation the fall-out from the recent credit boom-bust cycle.

Tunisia. Supervising Tunisian Elections by civil society: How to improve it? Arab Citizenship Review No. 7. January 2015

Introduction. On October 26, 2014, Tunisia held its second democratic legislative elections. Participation among more than 5 million registered voters was at about 60%, a relatively good turnout for the country, compared to the 52% voters in 2011. Preliminary results for the 33 constituencies (27 within the country and 6 for expatriates) reveal that secular frontrunner Nidaa Tounes (Call of Tunisia) won around 37% percent of votes while moderate Islamist party Ennahdha, winner of the 2011 elections and leader of Tunisia’s post-revolution government, received 27% of votes. Other parties with notable percentages are the Free Patriotic Union (French: UPL) with 4.4% and the leftist party, Popular Front, with 3.7%. Legislative were immediately followed by two round presidential elections the first one held on November 23, the second one after one month. Conversely to what was expected, people were more attracted by presidential elections even though president has notably less prerogatives than the parliament: representing the state, he is mainly responsible for determining the general state policies in the domains of defense, foreign relations and national security (article 76.) This paradox is ascribed to national imaginary more confident in a “Zaïm” (leader) rather than a collective institution such as a parliament. The turnout was at about 64% within the national 27 constituencies. Out of 70 candidates (including 5 female), 27 (with only one female) met the legal requirements to run for the presidency. The result confirms the legislative trend and Beji Caid Essebsi, leader of Nidaa, was proclaimed the third President of Tunisia. He gained 39.46% of the votes at the first round elections. Essebsi was followed by Moncef Marzouki who received an unexpected score (33.43%) at the first round, thanks to the support of Ennahdha audience and to an active and insistent campaign focused on the idea that revolution is threatened by old regime guard “come-back.” Rewarded for his long militant live, the extreme leftist Hamma Hammami in a new look gained 7,8% of the votes while the new comer Slim Riahi received 5,5% despite rumors circulating on his personal reputation. Notably, Kalthoum Kennou gained 0,55% (18.287 votes) but listed eleventh out of 27.

Money, Finance and the Real Economy: What went wrong? CEPS Paperback, 17 March 2015

The functions of the financial system of a developed economy are often badly understood. This can largely be attributed to free-market ideology, which has spread the belief that leaving finance to its own devices would provide the best possible mechanism for allocating savings. The latest financial crisis has sparked the beginnings of a new awareness on this point, but it is far from having led to an improved understanding of the role of the financial institutions. For many people, finance remains more an enemy to be resisted than an instrument to be intelligently exploited. Its institutions, which issue and circulate money, play an important role in the working of the real economy that it would be imprudent to neglect. The allocation of savings, but also the level of activity and the growth rate depend on it. In this book, the authors carefully analyse the close links between money, finance and the real economy. In the process, they show why today the existence of a substantial potential of saving, instead of being an opportunity for the world economy, could threaten it with ‘secular stagnation’.

Neighbors and other realities: The Atlantic civilization and its enemies. ZEI Discussion Paper C228, 2015

2014 was a watershed year for the geopolitical positioning of the European Union. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, Europe is no longer exporting stability but has begun to import instability in an unprecedented way. The neighborhood policy needs a fundamental review as non-European actors pursue policy concepts and strategies that run counter to EU norms and interests. ZEI Director Prof. Dr. Ludger Kühnhardt argues that the values of the Atlantic civilization have come under pressure in a world which tends to be influenced by new conflicts or a secular nature.

The altar and the throne alliance. The Russian Orthodox Church vs. the government in Russia. OSW STUDIES 54, 2016-01-04

The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC), the largest religious community in Russia, plays an essential role in the process of the cultural and national self-identification of the Russian people. Being a socio-political institution with a centuries-long history, it possesses great symbolic capital and enjoys public respect, which has been used for political purposes. Since Vladimir Putin regained the presidency in 2012, in order to strengthen the political regime in Russia the Kremlin has begun to extensively draw upon conservative ideology and promote the traditional moral and social values which the Church is viewed as the guardian of. This has resulted in establishing closer relations between the secular government and the ROC, as well as in a greater engagement of ROC hierarchs and organisations in domestic and foreign policy issues. This situation exposes the ROC to criticism for being excessively involved in politics, and in the longer term, to the risks linked to potential destabilisation of the governmental system in Russia.

Revised age model of DSDP Site 95-612

Alkenone-based Cenozoic records of the partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) are founded on the carbon isotope fractionation that occurred during marine photosynthesis (epsilon [p37:2]). However, the magnitude of epsilon [p37:2] is also influenced by phytoplankton cell size - a consideration lacking in previous alkenone-based CO2 estimates. In this study, we reconstruct cell size trends in ancient alkenone-producing coccolithophores (the reticulofenestrids) to test the influence that cell size variability played in determining epsilon [p37:2] trends and pCO2 estimates during the middle Eocene to early Miocene. At the investigated deep-sea sites, the reticulofenestrids experienced high diversity and largest mean cell sizes during the late Eocene, followed by a long-term decrease in maximum cell size since the earliest Oligocene. Decreasing haptophyte cell sizes do not account for the long-term increase in the stable carbon isotopic composition of alkenones and associated decrease in epsilon [p37:2] values during the Paleogene, supporting the conclusion that the secular pattern of epsilon [p37:2] values is primarily controlled by decreasing CO2 concentration since the earliest Oligocene. Further, given the physiology of modern alkenone producers, and considering the timings of coccolithophorid cell size change, extinctions, and changes in reconstructed pCO2 and temperature, we speculate that the selection of smaller reticulofenestrid cells during the Oligocene primarily reflects an adaptive response to increased [CO2(aq)] limitation.

(Table T1) Paleomagnetic properties of ODP Hole 191-1179D basalts

During Ocean Drilling Program Leg 191, ~100 m of mid-Cretaceous igneous crust was cored at Site 1179 (41.08°N, 159.96°E), located within magnetic Anomaly M8 on the abyssal plain of the northwest Pacific Ocean near Shatsky Rise. Paleomagnetic data from this section are significant because they can constrain the mid-Cretaceous Pacific plate paleolatitude and paleomagnetic pole, both of which can be used to infer tectonic drift and other geodynamic processes. In this study, we analyzed the paleomagnetism of 122 samples from 40 flows in the Site 1179 basalt section. Comparison of inclination data among flows implies 13 independent measurements of the paleomagnetic field. Assuming a reversed magnetic polarity because of the site location within Anomaly M8, the data give a mean paleocolatitude of 88.1° ± 6.8° (corresponding to a paleolatitude of 1.9°N). The paleocolatitude is consistent with other mid-Cretaceous Pacific paleomagnetic data that indicate ~39° northward drift of the western Pacific plate since mid-Cretaceous time. Comparison of observed between-flow colatitude variance with that expected from secular variation data suggests that secular variation may not have been completely averaged with the 13 independent groups sampled at Site 1179. Colatitude scatter in the section is markedly less in the deepest 33 m of the hole, indicating a shift from rapidly erupted flows in the bottom ~33 m of the section to more slowly emplaced flows above.

Estimates of %NCW bathing deep North Atlantic (IODP Site 306-U1313) over the past ~3.3 Ma

The circulation and internal structure of the oceans exert a strong influence on Earth's climate because they control latitudinal heat transport and the segregation of carbon between the atmosphere and the abyss (Sigman et al., 2010, doi:10.1038/nature09149). Circulation change, particularly in the Atlantic Ocean, is widely suggested (Bartoli et al., 2005, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2005.06.020; Haug and Tiedemann, 1998, doi:10.1038/31447; Woodard et al., 2014, doi:10.1126/science.1255586; McKay et al., 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1112248109) to have been instrumental in the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation when large ice sheets first developed on North America and Eurasia during the late Pliocene, approximately 2.7 million years ago (Bailey et al., 2013, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.06.004). Yet the mechanistic link and cause/effect relationship between ocean circulation and glaciation are debated. Here we present new records of North Atlantic Ocean structure using the carbon and neodymium isotopic composition of marine sediments recording deep water for both the Last Glacial to Holocene (35-5 thousand years ago) and the late Pliocene to earliest Pleistocene (3.3-2.4 million years ago). Our data show no secular change. Instead we document major southern-sourced water incursions into the deep North Atlantic during prominent glacials from 2.7 million years ago. Our results suggest that Atlantic circulation acts as a positive feedback rather than as an underlying cause of late Pliocene Northern Hemisphere glaciation. We propose that, once surface Southern Ocean stratification (Sigman, et al., 2004, doi:10.1038/nature02357) and/or extensive sea-ice cover (McKay et al., 2012, doi:10.1073/pnas.1112248109) was established, cold-stage expansions of southern-sourced water such as those documented here enhanced carbon dioxide storage in the deep ocean, helping to increase the amplitude of glacial cycles.

Heiligenspielrezeption in der Schweiz 1929: Das Bruderklausenspiel von Oskar Eberle

Based on Hansjürgen Linke’s study about the history of the reception of religious and secular medieval plays in twentieth-century Germany, the paper examines the respective situation in Switzerland. It focusses on the Bruderklausenspiel (1929), written and staged by Oskar Eberle. The director and scholar Oskar Eberle, and the Schweizerische Gesellschaft für Theaterkultur (SGTK) were the most influential supporters of the reception of religious plays in twentieth-century Switzerland. While in Germany the revival of medieval theatre emphasized a Renaissance of a former national importance, in Switzerland, the situation was very different. The revival of religious plays had a certain confessional background, and the political idea was to strengthen national self-confidence, and to confirm the nation’s historical neutrality concerning foreign affairs.

Cori celebri per voci d'uomini.

Cover title.