Some Robust Exact Results on Sample Autocorrelations and Tests of Randomness

Ce Texte Presente Plusieurs Resultats Exacts Sur les Seconds Moments des Autocorrelations Echantillonnales, Pour des Series Gaussiennes Ou Non-Gaussiennes. Nous Donnons D'abord des Formules Generales Pour la Moyenne, la Variance et les Covariances des Autocorrelations Echantillonnales, Dans le Cas Ou les Variables de la Serie Sont Interchangeables. Nous Deduisons de Celles-Ci des Bornes Pour les Variances et les Covariances des Autocorrelations Echantillonnales. Ces Bornes Sont Utilisees Pour Obtenir des Limites Exactes Sur les Points Critiques Lorsqu'on Teste le Caractere Aleatoire D'une Serie Chronologique, Sans Qu'aucune Hypothese Soit Necessaire Sur la Forme de la Distribution Sous-Jacente. Nous Donnons des Formules Exactes et Explicites Pour les Variances et Covariances des Autocorrelations Dans le Cas Ou la Serie Est un Bruit Blanc Gaussien. Nous Montrons Que Ces Resultats Sont Aussi Valides Lorsque la Distribution de la Serie Est Spheriquement Symetrique. Nous Presentons les Resultats D'une Simulation Qui Indiquent Clairement Qu'on Approxime Beaucoup Mieux la Distribution des Autocorrelations Echantillonnales En Normalisant Celles-Ci Avec la Moyenne et la Variance Exactes et En Utilisant la Loi N(0,1) Asymptotique, Plutot Qu'en Employant les Seconds Moments Approximatifs Couramment En Usage. Nous Etudions Aussi les Variances et Covariances Exactes D'autocorrelations Basees Sur les Rangs des Observations.

Mesure du Progres Technique: Theories et Methodes

Ce Texte Constitue un Survol des Differentes Approches Destines a Mesurer le Progres Technique. Nous Utilisons une Notation Uniforme Tout au Long des Demonstrations Mathematiques et Nous Faisons Ressortir les Hypotheses Qui Rendent L'application des Methodes Proposees Envisageable et Qui En Limitent la Portee. les Diverses Approches Sont Regroupees D'apres une Classification Suggeree Par Diewert (1981) Selon Laquelle Deux Groupes Sont a Distinguer. le Premier Groupe Contient Toutes les Methodes Definissant le Progres Technique Comme le Taux de Croissance D'un Indice des Outputs Divise Par un Indice des Inputs (Approche de Divisia). L'autre Groupe Inclut Toutes les Methodes Definissant le Progres Technique Comme Etant le Deplacement D'une Fonction Representant la Technologie (Production, Cout, Distance). Ce Second Groupe Est Subdivise Entre L'approche Econometrique,La Theorie des Nombres Indices et L 'Approche Non Parametrique. une Liste des Pricipaux Economistes a Qui L'on Doit les Diverses Approches Est Fournie. Cependant Ce Survol Est Suffisamment Detaille Pour Etre Lu Sans Se Referer aux Articles Originaux.

Capital Income Taxation, Depletion, Allowances and Non-Renewable Resource Extraction

Dans Cet Article, Nous Etudions les Distorsions Que Cause L'impot Sur le Revenu des Societes Dans le Profil de Production des Firmes Extractives et Dans L'allocation des Ressources Entre les Secteurs D'extraction et les Autres Secteurs Soumis a L'impot Sur les Societes. Nous Etudions En Particulier L'allocation D'epuisement, Dont Nous Montrons Qu'elle Peut Trouver Sa Justification, Non Pas a Assurer la Neutralite de L'impot, Mais En Permettant L'etablissement de Taux Effectifs D'imposition Identiques Dans les Secteurs D'extraction et Dans les Autres Secteurs.

Functional Forms and Educational Production Functions

Different Functional Forms Are Proposed and Applied in the Context of Educational Production Functions. Three Different Specifications - the Linerar, Logit and Inverse Power Transformation (Ipt) - Are Used to Explain First Grade Students' Results to a Mathematics Achievement Test. with Ipt Identified As the Best Functional Form to Explain the Data, the Assumption of Differential Impact of Explanatory Variables on Achievement Following the Status of the Student As a Low Or High Achiever Is Retained. Policy Implications of Such Result in Terms of School Interventions Are Discussed in the Paper.

Lien Entre Capital Fictif, Markup Flexible et Inflation

Dans Cet Article J'ai Cherche a Demontrer les Liens Qui Existent Entre la Theorie Quantitative de la Monnaie, la Theorie du \"Markup\" et L'inflation. Bien Qu'il Ne Soit Pas Necessaire D'admettre L'equilibre et les Courbes Is-Lm, Ma Theorie du Capital Fictif Est Compatible Avec le Q de Tobin. le Principal Avantage de la Theorie du \"Markup\" Flexible Est de Montrer Comment L'inflation Est Fonction Non Seulement du Prix et de la Productivite du Travail, Mais Aussi du Prix de la Productivite du Capital, de Son Taux D'amortissement et de Son Taux de Financement. les Nouveaux Resultats Econometriques Obtenus a Partir des Donnees Annuelles Canadiennes Illustrent Hors de Tout Doute le Bien Fonde de la Relation Entre Capital Fictif et Inflation.

On Stackelberg Equilibria with Differentiated Products: the Critical Role of the Strategy Space.

Nous Considerons Dans Cet Article un Modele de Duopole Avec Produits Differencies; Nous Montrons Que le Caractere Substituts Vs Complements de Ces Produits Est un Facteur Important Dans la Determination du Mode de Concurrence Strategique (Cournot-Bertrand, Nash Mixte, Stackelberg; En Prix Ou Quantites) Que L'on Est Susceptible D'observer. Si les Produits Sont Substituts (Complements), la Concurrence Sera du Type Cournot (Bertrand) Plutot Que du Type Nash Mixte a Moins Qu'une Firme Puisse Affirmer Son Leadership et Forcer une Concurrence a la Stackelberg Mais Quel Soit le Role Tenu Par une Firme, Il Sera Preferable Pour Elle Que la Concurrence S'exprime En Quantite (Prix). Par Ailleurs, la Concurrence a la Bertrand Est Toujours la Meilleure du Point de Vue des Consommateurs et du Point de Vue de L'efficacite Sociale, et Ce, Que les Produits Soient Susbtituts Ou Complements.

La Theorie Generale du Markup: une Critique des Post-Keynesiens Americains

Cet Article Se Divise En Trois Sections: la Premiere Contient une Critique de Certains Post-Keynesiens, Notamment Americains, Concernant Leur Hypothese de la Rigidite du Markup Dans la Relation Prix-Salaires. Contrairement a Kalecki Qui Admettait Volontiers la Flexibilite du Markup Face a la Rigidite des Prix et des Salaires, on Demontre Que la Position des Post-Keynesiens Americains N'est Qu'une Variante de L'approche Monetariste. la Deuxieme Section Contient une Generalisation de L'hypothese de la Variabilite du Markup Causee Par Tous les Facteurs de Production, Notamment la Variabilite Provenant des Mouvements de Capital Reel et Financier. En Utilisant les Donnees Annuelles Pour L'ensemble des Industries Canadienne Entre 1973 et 1982, on Estime Dans la Derniere Section Que les Couts Salariaux au Canada Ne Sont Responsables Que de 16% de L'inflation au Cours de la Derniere Decennie Alors Que les Couts du Capital Reel et Financier Compte Pour 84% de la Hausse des Prix.

Les politiques commerciales, industrielles, régionales, et d'adaptation dans le Rapport de la Commission MacDonald: un Commentaire

The effect of long discussions between commissioners with divergent views on certain issues is obvious in the report: it is more oriented towards the short term than expected. Undue attention was paid to trade liberalization with the U.S., a region of the world which the report describes as one in relative decline. The report does not deal with a scenario wherein trade liberalization with the U.S.A. is seen as a necessary transitory measure leading towards diversification of Canada's trade relation away from North America. Such an examination would point to a different approach to the U.S.A. in the short term. The report does not deal with services, information and te telecommunication which are fundamental to the economic development of Canada. There is also overemphasis on commercial policy and relative neglect on the use of domestic policies, among them industrial policy, in the pursuit of Canada's objectives. The report notes the interdependence between commercial and domestic policies and rightly recommend that provinces must, as a consequence, be involved in trade liberalization discussions. It is argued that the report underestimates the pressures for extra- territorial application of U.S. policies to Canada and the pressure for harmonization of policies which would follow trade liberalization. The report pays no attention to the implications of offshore investment going primarily to the U.S.A. and does not pay adequate attention to the role of investment to deal with adjustment problems. Available studies would have allowed the commissioners to clarify the determinants of investment decisions by Canadian head offices who have established subsidiaries in the U.S.A. but they were not examined. Little attention was paid to the role of transnationals and intrafirm trade in examining the implications of trade liberalization. The importance given to the reduction of regional disparities in earned incomes is welcome. However, the recommandation to leave regional development to provinces and municipalities denies the importance of national policies in the attainment of regionalization job equilization the impact of new CAD-CAM-telecommunications technologies on location decisions for the production of goods and services was not examined. Nor were the extent of and changes in interregional (i.e. interprovincial and more particularly province-state) trade flows examined. Knowledge of these patterns is essential in the formulation of industrial and adjustment policies in light of trade liberalization. The report recommends passive industrial adjustment policies focussed on the U.S., a reflection of the concern of the commissioners for the short term and the U.S.A. The implementation of the report's recommendations would lead to a centralization of economic power at the nationallevel, hence the need to establish a renewed senate to favour the formulation of regionally sensitive national policies.

Methodology in Economics: the Logic of Appraisal

This Paper Intends to Develop a Coherent Methodological Framework Concerned with the Appraisal of Scientific Theories in Economics, and Which Is Based on a Postulated Aim of Science. We First Define the Scope of a Methodological Inquiry (Precise Definition of What Is Meant by the Logic of Appraisal of Scientific Theories) and Review the Work of Popper and Lakatos in the Philosophy of Science. We Then Use Their Results to Develop a Rational Structure of Scientific Activity. We Identify and Analyse Both a Micro and Macro Framework for the Process of Appraisal and Single Out the Importance of So-Called 'Fundamental Assumptions' in Creating Externalities in the Appraisal Process Which Forces Us to Adop a Multi-Level Analysis. Special Attention Is Given to the Role and Significance of the Abstraction Process and the Use of Assumptions in General. the Proposed Structure of Scientific Activity Is Illustrated with Examples From Economics.

Dealing with Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection Simultaneously

Although Insurers Face Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard When They Set Insurance Contracts, These Two Types of Asymmetrical Information Have Been Given Separate Treatments Sofar in the Economic Literature. This Paper Is a First Attempt to Integrate Both Problems Into a Single Model. We Show How It Is Possible to Use Time in Order to Achieve a First-Best Allocation of Risks When Both Problems Are Present Simultaneously.

Industrial Adjustment: Context, Causes, Impacts and Methods for Analysis

Adjustement is an ongoing process by which factors of reallocated to equalize their returns in different uses. Adjustment occurs though market mechanisms or intrafirm reallocation of resources as a result of changes in terms of trade, government policies, resource availability, technological change, etc. These changes alter production opportunities and production, transaction and information costs, and consequently modify production functions, organizational design, etc. In this paper we define adjustment (section 2); review empirical estimates of the extent of adjustment in Canada and abroad (section 3); review selected features of the trade policy and adjustment context of relevance for policy formulation among which: slow growth, a shift to services, a shift to the Pacific Rim, the internationalization of production, investment distribution communications the growing use of NTB's, changes in foreign direct investment patterns, intrafirm and intraindustry trade, interregional trade flows, differences in micro economic adjustment processes of adjustment as between subsidiaries and Canadian companies (section 4); examine methodologies and results of studies of the impact of trade liberalization on jobs (section 5); and review the R. Harris general equilibrium model (section 6). Our conclusion emphasizes the importance of harmonizing commercial and domestic policies dealing with adjustment (section 7). We close with a bibliography of relevant publications.

Estimating the Tobit Model with Serial Correlation: an Operational Approach

Several Authors Have Discussed Recently the Limited Dependent Variable Regression Model with Serial Correlation Between Residuals. the Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimators Obtained by Ignoring Serial Correlation Altogether, Have Been Shown to Be Consistent. We Present Alternative Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimators Which Are Obtained by Ignoring Serial Correlation Only Selectively. Monte Carlo Experiments on a Model with First Order Serial Correlation Suggest That Our Alternative Estimators Have Substantially Lower Mean-Squared Errors in Medium Size and Small Samples, Especially When the Serial Correlation Coefficient Is High. the Same Experiments Also Suggest That the True Level of the Confidence Intervals Established with Our Estimators by Assuming Asymptotic Normality, Is Somewhat Lower Than the Intended Level. Although the Paper Focuses on Models with Only First Order Serial Correlation, the Generalization of the Proposed Approach to Serial Correlation of Higher Order Is Also Discussed Briefly.

Tests of Joint Hypotheses for Time Series Regression with a Unit Root

This Paper Studies Tests of Joint Hypotheses in Time Series Regression with a Unit Root in Which Weakly Dependent and Heterogeneously Distributed Innovations Are Allowed. We Consider Two Types of Regression: One with a Constant and Lagged Dependent Variable, and the Other with a Trend Added. the Statistics Studied Are the Regression \"F-Test\" Originally Analysed by Dickey and Fuller (1981) in a Less General Framework. the Limiting Distributions Are Found Using Functinal Central Limit Theory. New Test Statistics Are Proposed Which Require Only Already Tabulated Critical Values But Which Are Valid in a Quite General Framework (Including Finite Order Arma Models Generated by Gaussian Errors). This Study Extends the Results on Single Coefficients Derived in Phillips (1986A) and Phillips and Perron (1986).

Bureaucratic Corruption As a Constraint on Voter Choice

It Has Often Been Assumed That a Country's Tax Level, Tax Structure Progressivity and After-Tax Income Distribution Are Chosen by Voters Subject Only to Their Budget Constraints. This Paper Argues That At Certain Income Levels Voters' Decisions May Be Constrained by Bureaucratic Corruption. the Theoretical Arguments Are Developed in Asymmetry Limits the Capacity of the Fiscal System to Generate Revenues by Means of Direct Taxes. This Hypothesis Is Tested Witha Sample of International Data by Means of a Simultaneous Equation Model. the Distortions Resulting From Corruption Ar Captured Through Their Effects on a Latent Variable Defined As the Overall Fiscal Structure. Evidence Is Found of Causality Running From This Latent Variable to the Level of Taxes and the Degree of After Tax Inequality.

A Survey Measure of Risk Aversion

We Use Survey Data on the Well-Being of Individuals to Measure Attitude Toward Risk. Risk Neutrality Cannot Be Rejected by the Data.