881 resultados para Cadeias de Markov. Algoritmos genéticos


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O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a produção e composição do leite de vacas de corte das raças Charolês (C), Nelore (N), mestiças CN filhas de touros C e mestiças NC filhas de touros N, mantidas em pastagem nativa e submetidas a diferentes manejos no pré-desmame: suplementadas com farelo de arroz integral (0,7% do peso vivo) e que desmamaram aos 42 ou 63 dias pós-parto, ou não suplementadas e que desmamaram aos 63 dias. A idade das vacas variou de 3 a 12 anos, sendo agrupadas em quatro classes: primíparas, jovens, adultas e velhas. Os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância, cujo modelo estatístico incluiu os efeitos de manejo, grupo genético e idade da vaca, período e as interações entre esses fatores. Os teores de lactose e gordura não foram influenciados pelos fatores estudados. Houve interação significativa entre idade da vaca e período para a produção de leite e entre manejo e idade da vaca para o teor de proteína. Vacas suplementadas apresentaram maior produção de leite (3,85 contra 3,25 L/dia), teor de extrato seco total - EST (12,18 contra 11,83%) e teor de extrato seco desengordurado - ESD (8,75 contra 8,57%). A produção de leite decresceu com o avanço do período de lactação, sendo a queda mais acentuada nas vacas não suplementadas. Vacas CN produziram mais leite (4,17 L/dia) do que as puras, não diferindo das NC (3,76 L/dia). Vacas N apresentaram produção de leite similar (3,76 L/dia) às C (3,11 L/dia). No entanto, as primeiras apresentaram leite com melhor qualidade, incluindo proteína (3,16 contra 2,86%), EST (12,52 contra 11,46%) e ESD (8,87 contra 8,49%). Vacas adultas apresentaram maior teor de ESD, seguidas das vacas jovens, das primíparas e das velhas, com valores de 8,86; 8,62; 8,62; e 8,54%, respectivamente.

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Os objetivos neste trabalho foram comparar estimativas de parâmetros genéticos obtidas por meio de dois modelos - um contendo apenas efeitos aditivos e de dominância e outro que incluiu os efeitos aditivo-conjunto (complementaridade) e epistático - e testar alternativas de critérios objetivos para determinação do coeficiente lambda na aplicação da regressão de cumeeira. Os resultados obtidos revelaram que a escolha de um critério para determinação do coeficiente lambda em regressão de cumeeira depende não apenas do conjunto de dados e do modelo utilizado, mas, sobretudo, de um conhecimento prévio acerca do fenômeno estudado e do significado prático e da interpretação dos parâmetros encontrados. Pelo uso de modelos mais completos para avaliação de efeitos genéticos em bovinos de corte, pode-se identificar a contribuição dos efeitos aditivo-conjunto e epistático, que encontram-se embutidos no efeito de heterose estimado por modelos mais simples. A regressão de cumeeira é uma ferramenta que viabiliza a obtenção dessas estimativas mesmo na presença de forte multicolinearidade.

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Dados de 39.578 controles leiteiros de 3.766 primeiras lactações de vacas da raça Holandesa, ocorridas de 1994 a 2002, foram analisados com os objetivos de estimar parâmetros genéticos para as produções de leite no dia do controle (PLDC) e para a produção até 305 dias de lactação (P305) e comparar estes dois critérios de seleção. Os componentes de variância foram estimados pelo método da máxima verossimilhança restrita, sob modelo animal univariado ou bivariado. Para as PLDC, os modelos incluíram o efeito aleatório genético aditivo, o efeito fixo de grupo contemporâneo e, como covariáveis, a idade da vaca ao parto (efeitos linear e quadrático) e os dias em lactação (efeito linear). Para a P305, foi utilizado o mesmo modelo, substituindo dias em lactação por duração da lactação. Os grupos de contemporâneos foram formados por ano, mês do controle e rebanho (para as PLDC) e por ano, época do parto e rebanho (para a P305). As herdabilidades estimadas para a P305 foram de 0,27 e 0,25 para as análises univariadas e bivariadas, respectivamente. Para as PLDC, as herdabilidades variaram de 0,11 a 0,31. Para o modelo bivariado (pelo qual avaliaram-se simultaneamente P305 e as PLDC), as herdabilidades para os controles (PLDC) foram menores, variando de 0,08 a 0,25. As maiores estimativas ocorreram para as produções do 4º e 5º controles, correspondendo aos 2º e 3º meses de lactação. As correlações genéticas entre P305 e os controles individuais foram positivas e elevadas, variando de 0,83 a 1,00. Os resultados indicaram que a seleção direta para P305, como tradicionalmente realizada, implicaria maiores ganhos genéticos para a produção de leite (PL) na maioria dos controles quinzenais. Além disso, a seleção direta para as produções parciais poderia proporcionar ganhos correlacionados também para a P305, mas estes ganhos seriam menores que os obtidos via seleção direta.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Este artigo pretende apresentar alguns dos conceitos de coordenação de sistemas agroindustriais (SAGs) e de competitividade entre cadeias, mais especificamente as cadeias de carnes (bovinos, suínos e aves). em seguida, são analisados alguns exemplos recentes de diferentes formas de coordenação de SAGs e como elas afetam a competitividade entre as cadeias.

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Seventy beef males of three breeding systems (BS), straightbreds Charolais (Ch) and Nellore (Ne), G1 crossbreds: 1/2 Ch + 1/2 Ne (1/2 Ch) and 1/2 Ne + 1/2 Ch (1/2 Ne) and G2 crossbreds: 3/4 Ch + 1/4 Ne (3/4 Ch) and 3/4 Ne + 1/4 Ch (3/4 Ne) were used. The number of animals by genetic group was, respectively, 15, 12,8, 12,14 and 9. Thirty-five males were castrated (C) at seven months and 35 were kept intact (1). The animals were feedlot finished from 20 to 24 months. The longissimus dorsi muscle was used for the meat evaluation. No significant interaction was observed between genetic composition and sexual condition, for the variables studied. The I males displayed meat with darker color (3.05 vs. 3.78 points) with less amount of marbling (4.26 vs. 5.75 points) and less amount of ether extract (1.73 vs. 2.88%). However they presented larger (66.03 vs. 60.50 cm(2)) longissimus dorsi area and meat with better palatability, juiciness and tenderness. Ch animals had larger longissimus dorsi than the Ne. In the G I group, the 1/2 Ch meat showed larger amount of marbling and ether extract and less cooking losses than the 1/2 Ne meat. Between G2 animals, the 3/4 Ne showed meat with larger thawing losses and larger amount of ether extract. In G1 animals meat, the heterosis level reached 18.54% for longissimus dorsiarea, 28.10% for ether extract and 64.01% for amount of marbling. In G2, the heterosis was -17.30% for lean texture and 10.40% for longissimus dorsi area.

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The kidding intervals (IDP) of dairy goats raised in Southeastern Brazil were studied to quantify the influence of environmental factors and to estimate genetic parameters by means of least squares (MMQ) and restricted maximum likelihood (REML). The data analyzed were obtained from five farms and three breeds (Alpine, Saanen, and Toggenburg). The overall mean and standard error of IDP, as estimated by MMQ, were 339 +/- 12.70 days. The interaction of year x season of parturition influenced IDP. In two of the years studied, goats kidding at the end of the kidding season showed a shorter IDP when compared to those that were kidding after the end of the season. A quadratic trend of IDP over years was observed across the three kidding periods. For the three seasons. IDP increased from 1986 until mid-1989 and decreased thereafter. The heritability and repeatability of IDP, as estimated by MMQ and REML, were: 0.046 +/- 0.071 and 0.103 +/- 0.043, and 0.00026 and 0.08411, respectively. These estimates indicate that little genetic gain can be expected from selection for this trait.

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The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for body weights at weaning (PD), 12 months old (P12) and adult age (PAD), culling age (TPR, days in herd), number (ND10) and kilograms (QD10) of calves weaned up to ten years of age, total number (NDT) and total kilograms (QDT) of calves weaned during herd life, and kilograms of calves weaned per year in herd (QTPR) of Canchim (5/8 Charolais + 3/8 Zebu) females from one herd. Data consisted of 3,249, 3.111, 1,138, 1,340, 1,362, 1,362, 1,340, 1,340 and 1,340 records of PD, P12, PAD, TPR, ND10, QD10, NDT, QDT and QTPR. respectively. Variance and covariance components were estimated by bivariate analyses between PD, P12 and PAD and other production traits using Bayesian inference. The models included the additive direct, permanent environmental and residual random effects and the fixed effects year and month of birth or calving, calving age and age of the animal, depending on the trait. QD10, QDT and QTPR of each female were obtained by adjusting the weaning weights of calves for year and month of birth, sex and age of cow. Average of heritability estimates were 0.38 (PD), 0.40 (P12), 0.54 (PAD), 0.22 (TPR), 0.22 (ND10), 0.24 (QD10), 0.23 (NDT), 0.23 (QDT) and 0.32 (QTPR), indicating genetic variability to obtain response by selection. Genetic correlations between TPR (-0.02, 0.26 and -0.12), ND10 (0.04, 0.10 and -0.29), QD10 (0.37, 0.39 and -0.13), NDT (-0.03, 0.14 and -0.25), QDT (0.20, 0.33 and -0.16), QTPR (0.21, 0.28 and -0.19) and body weights (PD, P12 and PAD) suggest that selection of females based on weaning and 12-month body weights will not affect productivity. However, it may be decreased by increasing female adult body weight.

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When the (X) over bar chart is in use, samples are regularly taken from the process, and their means are plotted on the chart. In some cases, it is too expensive to obtain the X values, but not the values of a correlated variable Y. This paper presents a model for the economic design of a two-stage control chart, that is. a control chart based on both performance (X) and surrogate (Y) variables. The process is monitored by the surrogate variable until it signals an out-of-control behavior, and then a switch is made to the (X) over bar chart. The (X) over bar chart is built with central, warning. and action regions. If an X sample mean falls in the central region, the process surveillance returns to the (Y) over bar chart. Otherwise. The process remains under the (X) over bar chart's surveillance until an (X) over bar sample mean falls outside the control limits. The search for an assignable cause is undertaken when the performance variable signals an out-of-control behavior. In this way, the two variables, are used in an alternating fashion. The assumption of an exponential distribution to describe the length of time the process remains in control allows the application of the Markov chain approach for developing the cost function. A study is performed to examine the economic advantages of using performance and surrogate variables. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This paper presents an economic design of (X) over bar control charts with variable sample sizes, variable sampling intervals, and variable control limits. The sample size n, the sampling interval h, and the control limit coefficient k vary between minimum and maximum values, tightening or relaxing the control. The control is relaxed when an (X) over bar value falls close to the target and is tightened when an (X) over bar value falls far from the target. A cost model is constructed that involves the cost of false alarms, the cost of finding and eliminating the assignable cause, the cost associated with production in an out-of-control state, and the cost of sampling and testing. The assumption of an exponential distribution to describe the length of time the process remains in control allows the application of the Markov chain approach for developing the cost function. A comprehensive study is performed to examine the economic advantages of varying the (X) over bar chart parameters.

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Data on age at first kidding (IPP) were collected on seven farms in the Brazilian Southeastern region which explored breds. Least squares (LS) were used to evaluate the effects of environmental factors and to estimate variance components, and the derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood (DFREML) method was used to estimate the variance components of IPP and to genetically evaluate the goats used in the southest region of Brazil. The LS mean and standard error of IPP were 607.18 +/- 17.09 days. The interaction of year x kidding season had a significantly influenced IPP, indicating that management conditions varied among the seasons within each specific year, with a direct influence on body weight which is the main criterion adopted by farmers to decide when the animal is ready to breed. The effect of farm-breed combination influenced the IPP. The compararison among levels of farm-breed were done by cluster analysis. The results indicated that the individual goat management within each farm had a greater influence than breed, since goats of different breeds showed high and similar values on those farms having a high mean IPP. Heritability estimates obtained by LS using intraclass correlations among paternal half-sibs and those obtained by REML were 0.220 and 0.369, respectively.

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The objective of this work was to estimate, by meta-analysis, the heritability (h(2)) and the genetic (r(g)) and phenotypic (r(f)) correlations of residual feed intake (RFI), and of its component traits in beef cattle from 19 breeds or genetic groups. Twenty-two scientific papers published from 1963 to 2011, from eight countries, totaling 52,637 cattle of ages from 28 days up to slaughter, were evaluated. The estimates of RFI, dry matter intake (DMI), average daily gain (ADG) and metabolic weight (BW0.75) were weighted by the inverse of sample variance. The variation between studies of h(2) for each trait was analyzed by weighted least squares. The effects of sex, country and breed were significant for h(2) of RFI, explaining 67% of variation between studies. For DMI, country and breed effects were significant and explained 96% of variation. Pooled estimates of h(2) were: 0.255+/-0.008, 0.278+/-0.012, 0.321+/-0.015, and 0.397+/-0.032 for RFI, DMI, ADG and BW0.75, respectively. Pooled estimates of genetic and phenotypic correlations were low between RFI and ADG and between RFI and BW0.75 (from -0.021+/-0.034 to 0.025+/-0.035), and moderate between RFI and DMI (0.636+/-0.035 and 0.698+/-0.041) and between DMI, ADG and BW0.75 (0.441+/-0.062 to 0.688+/-0.032). The trait RFI has lower heritability estimates than its components.

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The objectives of this study were to obtain heritability and genetic, phenotypic and environmental correlation estimates for birth (B), weaning (WW), yearling (YW) and 18 - (EW) and 24 - month (TW) weights, and to propose selection criteria for body weight in Canchim cattle. The data were analyzed by the least-squares method with models that included the fixed effects of herd, year and month of birth, sex of calf and age of cow at calving, and the random effects of sire within herd. The heritability estimates obtained were equal to 0.36 0.06 (BW), 0.47 0.06 (WW), 0.53 0.07 (YW), 0.54 0.08 (EW) and 0.27 0.06 (TW). The genetic correlations were equal to 0.51 (BW and WW), 0.36 (BW and YW), 0.14 (BW and EW), 0.00 (BW and TW), 0.92 (WW and YW), 0.77 (WW and EW), 0.75 (WW and TW), 0.94 (YW and EW), 0.86 (YW and TW) and 0.85 (EW and TW). The phenotypic correlations ranged from 0.19 to 0.72, and the environmental correlations from 0.11 to 0.61. The results showed that, in general, mass selection for weight will result in genetic progress, selection for weight at any age will result in correlated changes at other ages, and EW and TW are good selection criteria for increasing weight in the Canchim breed.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)