Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis.Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively.Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools

Limnological characteristics and zooplankton community structure of Mediterranean coastal lagoons undergoing restoration

Entre 1999 i 2003 es va desenvolupar un projecte Life de restauració a la maresma de La Pletera, afectada per un pla urbanització, i a la llacuna del Ter Vell, amb un elevat grau d'eutròfia (aiguamolls del Baix Ter, NE Península Ibèrica). L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és establir el funcionament d'ambdós ecosistemes, analitzar-ne la problemàtica ambiental i avaluar els efectes de la restauració. A la maresma de la Pletera, es va analitzar el paper de la hidrologia en la composició i dinàmica dels nutrients i del zooplàncton en cinc llacunes, tres de les quals havien estat creades dins el projecte de restauració com a nous refugis per una espècie de peix amenaçada (Aphanius iberus). La hidrologia es va caracteritzar per un llarg període de confinament sense entrades d'aigua, interromput de manera irregular per inundacions puntuals. La dinàmica del nitrogen inorgànic es va relacionar amb les entrades d'aigua, mentre que la del fòsfor, del nitrogen total i de la matèria orgànica es va relacionar amb els processos d'acumulació i reciclatge intern durant el confinament. El zooplàncton es va analitzar mitjançant la combinació d'aproximacions taxonòmiques i de mides. L'estructura de mides de la comunitat es va veure més afectada per les interaccions tròfiques (depredació i competència) mentre que l'estructura taxonòmica va ser més sensible a factors abiòtics (nutrients). El ràpid creixement de la població A. iberus en les noves llacunes va suggerir que aquestes havien proporcionat l'hàbitat adequat per a l'espècie, almenys a curt termini. Les actuacions de restauració a la llacuna del Ter Vell es van centrar en la millora de la qualitat de l'aigua mitjançant (1) la construcció d'uns aiguamolls per depurar l'aigua d'entrada i (2) el dragat del sediment en diversos punts. Simultàniament a la restauració, però de forma independent, la gestió agrícola de l'aigua va reduir dràsticament el cabal d'entrada d'aigua dolça a la llacuna, provocant un canvi en el règim hídric. Es van analitzar els efectes a curt termini d'aquest canvi sobre la limnologia i el zooplàncton de la llacuna. Abans del canvi, la hidrologia era artificial ja que s'havia prolongat l'entrada d'aigua dolça d'acord amb la demanda agrícola, i per tant la llacuna presentava una elevada taxa de renovació de l'aigua i majors concentracions de nutrients. Després del canvi, la hidrologia va dependre més del clima, es van reduir les entrades d'aigua i es va allargar el període de confinament. La composició y dinàmica dels nutrients va tendir a assemblar-se a l'observada a les llacunes de la maresma, mentre que la comunitat del zooplàncton no ho va fer. L'estat ecològic de la llacuna va millorar després del canvi en el règim hídric.

Gestão de processos de ativação e recuperação com o uso das tecnologias nas empresas de Telecom, direcionada a usuários finais, sediado na região oeste do Estado do Pará

O estudo realizado abriu discursão sobre a gestão de processos de ativação e recuperação e o conhecimento dos gestores desses processos relacionados com o uso das tecnologias. A análise objetivou observar a qualidade no atendimento das empresas de Telecom aos clientes da região Oeste do Pará, foi observado as estratégias empregadas por essas empresas para que seus serviços pudessem se tornar mais viáveis, certamente que o compromisso e responsabilidade dos gestores das empresas de Telecom tem sido bastante árdua, as problemáticas geográficas da região em estudo são muitas. Um dos problemas impactantes é a via de acesso da cidade mãe até as cidades vizinhas, depende de barcos, lanchas, balsas ou via terrestre; as adversidades são inúmeras e podem modificar comportamento e forma estratégica de se trabalhar nos processos analisados, inclusive em tempos de chuva a situação fica mais comprometedora aos técnicos de ativação e recuperação. Percebe que esses fatores alteram resultados estipulados pelas empresas, isso faz com que os gestores repensem e refaçam suas estratégias nos dois processos. O trabalho avaliou a estratégia usada pelos gestores de TI (Tecnologia da Informação) ou gestores geral das empresas usuárias para melhor atender sua clientela interna, e conseguir discernir as práticas dos serviços Telecom, melhorando o diálogo com os gestores Telecom, aumentando a qualidade e satisfação de seus clientes internos, tendo um equilíbrio de conhecimento nos conceitos tecnológicos.

An Estimate of Nest Loss in Canada Due to Industrial Forestry Operations

Annual loss of nests by industrial (nonwoodlot) forest harvesting in Canada was estimated using two avian point-count data sources: (1) the Boreal Avian Monitoring Project (BAM) dataset for provinces operating in this biome and (2) available data summarized for the major (nonboreal) forest regions of British Columbia. Accounting for uncertainty in the proportion of harvest occurring during the breeding season and in avian nesting densities, our estimate ranges from 616 thousand to 2.09 million nests. Estimates of the impact on numbers of individuals recruited into the adult breeding population were made based on the application of survivorship estimates at various stages of the life cycle. Future improvements to this estimate are expected as better and more extensive avian breeding pair density estimates become available and as provincial forestry statistics become more refined, spatially and temporally. The effect of incidental take due to forestry is not uniform and is disproportionately centered in the southern boreal. Those species whose ranges occur primarily in these regions are most at risk for industrial forestry in general and for incidental take in particular. Refinements to the nest loss estimate for industrial forestry in Canada will be achieved primarily through the provision of more accurate estimates of the area of forest harvested annually during the breeding season stratified by forest type and Bird Conservation Region (BCR). A better understanding of survivorship among life-history stages for forest birds would also allow for better modeling of the effect of nest loss on adult recruitment. Finally, models are needed to project legacy effects of forest harvesting on avian populations that take into account forest succession and accompanying cumulative effects of landscape change.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones

The clustering in time (seriality) of extratropical cyclones is responsible for large cumulative insured losses in western Europe, though surprisingly little scientific attention has been given to this important property. This study investigates and quantifies the seriality of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere using a point-process approach. A possible mechanism for serial clustering is the time-varying effect of the large-scale flow on individual cyclone tracks. Another mechanism is the generation by one parent cyclone of one or more offspring through secondary cyclogenesis. A long cyclone-track database was constructed for extended October March winters from 1950 to 2003 using 6-h analyses of 850-mb relative vorticity derived from the NCEP NCAR reanalysis. A dispersion statistic based on the varianceto- mean ratio of monthly cyclone counts was used as a measure of clustering. It reveals extensive regions of statistically significant clustering in the European exit region of the North Atlantic storm track and over the central North Pacific. Monthly cyclone counts were regressed on time-varying teleconnection indices with a log-linear Poisson model. Five independent teleconnection patterns were found to be significant factors over Europe: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the east Atlantic western Russian pattern, and the polar Eurasian pattern. The NAO alone is not sufficient for explaining the variability of cyclone counts in the North Atlantic region and western Europe. Rate dependence on time-varying teleconnection indices accounts for the variability in monthly cyclone counts, and a cluster process did not need to be invoked.

Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate?

Extratropical cyclones and how they may change in a warmer climate have been investigated in detail with a high-resolution version of the ECHAM5 global climate model. A spectral resolution of T213 (63 km) is used for two 32-yr periods at the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and integrated for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. Extremes of pressure, vorticity, wind, and precipitation associated with the cyclones are investigated and compared with a lower-resolution simulation. Comparison with observations of extreme wind speeds indicates that the model reproduces realistic values. This study also investigates the ability of the model to simulate extratropical cyclones by computing composites of intense storms and contrasting them with the same composites from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Composites of the time evolution of intense cyclones are reproduced with great fidelity; in particular the evolution of central surface pressure is almost exactly replicated, but vorticity, maximum wind speed, and precipitation are higher in the model. Spatial composites also show that the distributions of pressure, winds, and precipitation at different stages of the cyclone life cycle compare well with those from ERA-40, as does the vertical structure. For the twenty-first century, changes in the distribution of storms are very similar to those of previous study. There is a small reduction in the number of cyclones but no significant changes in the extremes of wind and vorticity in both hemispheres. There are larger regional changes in agreement with previous studies. The largest changes are in the total precipitation, where a significant increase is seen. Cumulative precipitation along the tracks of the cyclones increases by some 11% per track, or about twice the increase in global precipitation, while the extreme precipitation is close to the globally averaged increase in column water vapor (some 27%). Regionally, changes in extreme precipitation are even higher because of changes in the storm tracks.

Evolving graphs: dynamical models, inverse problems and propagation

Applications such as neuroscience, telecommunication, online social networking, transport and retail trading give rise to connectivity patterns that change over time. In this work, we address the resulting need for network models and computational algorithms that deal with dynamic links. We introduce a new class of evolving range-dependent random graphs that gives a tractable framework for modelling and simulation. We develop a spectral algorithm for calibrating a set of edge ranges from a sequence of network snapshots and give a proof of principle illustration on some neuroscience data. We also show how the model can be used computationally and analytically to investigate the scenario where an evolutionary process, such as an epidemic, takes place on an evolving network. This allows us to study the cumulative effect of two distinct types of dynamics.

Human exposure modelling for chemical risk assessment: a review of current approaches and research and policy implications

A wide variety of exposure models are currently employed for health risk assessments. Individual models have been developed to meet the chemical exposure assessment needs of Government, industry and academia. These existing exposure models can be broadly categorised according to the following types of exposure source: environmental, dietary, consumer product, occupational, and aggregate and cumulative. Aggregate exposure models consider multiple exposure pathways, while cumulative models consider multiple chemicals. In this paper each of these basic types of exposure model are briefly described, along with any inherent strengths or weaknesses, with the UK as a case study. Examples are given of specific exposure models that are currently used, or that have the potential for future use, and key differences in modelling approaches adopted are discussed. The use of exposure models is currently fragmentary in nature. Specific organisations with exposure assessment responsibilities tend to use a limited range of models. The modelling techniques adopted in current exposure models have evolved along distinct lines for the various types of source. In fact different organisations may be using different models for very similar exposure assessment situations. This lack of consistency between exposure modelling practices can make understanding the exposure assessment process more complex, can lead to inconsistency between organisations in how critical modelling issues are addressed (e.g. variability and uncertainty), and has the potential to communicate mixed messages to the general public. Further work should be conducted to integrate the various approaches and models, where possible and regulatory remits allow, to get a coherent and consistent exposure modelling process. We recommend the development of an overall framework for exposure and risk assessment with common approaches and methodology, a screening tool for exposure assessment, collection of better input data, probabilistic modelling, validation of model input and output and a closer working relationship between scientists and policy makers and staff from different Government departments. A much increased effort is required is required in the UK to address these issues. The result will be a more robust, transparent, valid and more comparable exposure and risk assessment process. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of Fe-rich coatings on the dissolution of anorthite at pH 2.6

Surface coatings are very common on mineral grains in soils but most laboratory dissolution experiments are carried out on pristine, uncoated mineral grains. An experiment designed to unambiguously isolate the effect of surface coatings on mineral dissolution from any influence of solution saturation state is reported. Two aliquots of 53 to 63 mum anorthite feldspar powder were used. One was dissolved in pH 2.6 HCl, the other in pH 2.6 FeCl3 solution, both for similar to6000 h in flow-through reactors. An amorphous Fe-rich, Al-, Ca- and Si-free orange precipitate coated the anorthite dissolved in the FeCl3 solution. BET surface area of the anorthite increased from 0.16 to 1.65 m(2) g(-1) in the HCl experiment and to 3.89 m(2) g(-1) in the FeCl3 experiment. The increase in surface area in the HCl experiment was due to the formation of etch pits on the anorthite grain surface whilst the additional increase in the FeCl3 experiment was due to the micro- and meso-porous nature of the orange precipitate. This precipitate did not inhibit or slow the dissolution of the anorthite. Steady state dissolution rates for the anorthite dissolved in the HCl and FeCl3 were similar to2.5 and 3.2 X 10(-10) mol(feldspar) m(-2) s(-1) respectively. These rates are not significantly different after the cumulative uncertainty of 17% in their value due to uncertainty in the inputs parameters used in their calculation is taken into account. Results from this experiment support previous theoretical and inference-based conclusions that porous coatings should not inhibit mineral dissolution. Copyright (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd.

Solute movement through intact columns of cryoturbated Upper Chalk

Cryoturbated Upper Chalk is a dichotomous porous medium wherein the intra-fragment porosity provides water storage and the inter-fragment porosity provides potential pathways for relatively rapid flow near saturation. Chloride tracer movement through 43 cm long and 45 cm diameter undisturbed chalk columns was studied at water application rates of 0.3, 1.0, and 1.5 cm h(-1). Microscale heterogeneity in effluent was recorded using a grid collection system consisting of 98 funnel-shaped cells each 3.5 cm in diameter. The total porosity of the columns was 0.47 +/- 0.02 m(3) m(-3), approximately 13% of pores were >15 mu m diameter, and the saturated hydraulic conductivity was 12.66 +/- 1.31 m day(-1). Although the column remained unsaturated during the leaching even at all application rates, proportionate flow through macropores increased as the application rate decreased. The number of dry cells (with 0 ml of effluent) increased as application rate decreased. Half of the leachate was collected from 15, 19 and 22 cells at 0.3, 1.0, 1.5 cm h(-1) application rates respectively. Similar breakthrough curves (BTCs) were obtained at all three application rates when plotted as a function of cumulative drainage, but they were distinctly different when plotted as a function of time. The BTCs indicate that the columns have similar drainage requirement irrespective of application rates, as the rise to the maxima (C/C-o) is almost similar. However, the time required to achieve that leaching requirement varies with application rates, and residence time was less in the case of a higher application rate. A two-region convection-dispersion model was used to describe the BTCs and fitted well (r(2) = 0.97-0-99). There was a linear relationship between dispersion coefficient and pore water velocity (correlation coefficient r = 0.95). The results demonstrate the microscale heterogeneity of hydrodynamic properties in the Upper Chalk. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An application of the GLUE methodology for estimating the parameters of the INCA-N model

The conceptual and parameter uncertainty of the semi-distributed INCA-N (Integrated Nutrients in Catchments-Nitrogen) model was studied using the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology combined with quantitative experimental knowledge, the concept known as 'soft data'. Cumulative inorganic N leaching, annual plant N uptake and annual mineralization proved to be useful soft data to constrain the parameter space. The INCA-N model was able to simulate the seasonal and inter-annual variations in the stream-water nitrate concentrations, although the lowest concentrations during the growing season were not reproduced. This suggested that there were some retention processes or losses either in peatland/wetland areas or in the river which were not included in the INCA-N model. The results of the study suggested that soft data was a way to reduce parameter equifinality, and that the calibration and testing of distributed hydrological and nutrient leaching models should be based both on runoff and/or nutrient concentration data and the qualitative knowledge of experimentalist. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recent glacier retreat in the Caucasus Mountains, Russia, and associated increase in supraglacial debris cover and supra-/proglacial lake development

This paper reports changes in supraglacial debris cover and supra-/proglacial lake development associated with recent glacier retreat (1985-2000) in the central Caucasus Mountains, Russia. Satellite imagery (Landsat TM and ETM+) was used to map the surface area and supraglacial debris cover on six neighbouring glaciers in the Adylsu valley through a process of manual digitizing on a false-colour composite of bands 5, 4, 3 (red, green, blue). The distribution and surface area of supraglacial and proglacial lakes was digitized for a larger area, which extended to the whole Landsat scene. We also compare our satellite interpretations to field observations in the Adylsu valley. Supraglacial debris cover ranges from < 5% to > 25% on individual glaciers, but glacier retreat between 1985 and 2000 resulted in a 3-6% increase in the proportion of each glacier covered by debris. The only exception to this trend was a very small glacier where debris cover did not change significantly and remote mapping proved more difficult. The increase in debris cover is characterized by a progressive upglacier migration, which we suggest is being driven by focused ablation (and therefore glacier thinning) at the up-glacier limit of the debris cover, resulting in the progressive exposure of englacial debris. Glacier retreat has also been accompanied by an increase in the number of proglacial and supraglacial lakes in our study area, from 16 in 1985 to 24 in 2000, representing a 57% increase in their cumulative surface area. These lakes appear to be impounded by relatively recently lateral and terminal moraines and by debris deposits on the surface of the glacier. The changes in glacier surface characteristics reported here are likely to exert a profound influence on glacier mass balance and their future response to climate change. They may also increase the likelihood of glacier-related hazards (lake outbursts, debris slides), and future monitoring is recommended.

ARCOM construction management abstracts 1983-1998

The purpose of this document is to provide a single source of reference for every paper published in the journals directly related to research in Construction Management. It is indexed by author and keyword and contains the titles, authors, abstracts and keywords of every article from the following journals: • Building Research and Information (BRI) • Construction Management and Economics (CME) • Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management (ECAM) • Journal of Construction Procurement (JCP) • RICS Research Papers (RICS) The index entries give short forms of the bibliographical citations, rather than page numbers, to enable annual updates to the abstracts. Each annual update will carry cumulative indexes, so that only one index needs to be consulted.

Failure to regulate: counterproductive recruitment of top-down prefrontal-subcortical circuitry in major depression

Although depressed mood is a normal occurrence in response to adversity in all individuals, what distinguishes those who are vulnerable to major depressive disorder (MDD) is their inability to effectively regulate negative mood when it arises. Investigating the neural underpinnings of adaptive emotion regulation and the extent to which such processes are compromised in MDD may be helpful in understanding the pathophysiology of depression. We report results from a functional magnetic resonance imaging study demonstrating left-lateralized activation in the prefrontal cortex (PFC) when downregulating negative affect in nondepressed individuals, whereas depressed individuals showed bilateral PFC activation. Furthermore, during an effortful affective reappraisal task, nondepressed individuals showed an inverse relationship between activation in left ventrolateral PFC and the amygdala that is mediated by the ventromedial PFC (VMPFC). No such relationship was found for depressed individuals, who instead show a positive association between VMPFC and amygdala. Pupil dilation data suggest that those depressed patients who expend more effort to reappraise negative stimuli are characterized by accentuated activation in the amygdala, insula, and thalamus, whereas nondepressed individuals exhibit the opposite pattern. These findings indicate that a key feature underlying the pathophysiology of major depression is the counterproductive engagement of right prefrontal cortex and the lack of engagement of left lateral-ventromedial prefrontal circuitry important for the downregulation of amygdala responses to negative stimuli.