Mixture density networks

Minimization of a sum-of-squares or cross-entropy error function leads to network outputs which approximate the conditional averages of the target data, conditioned on the input vector. For classifications problems, with a suitably chosen target coding scheme, these averages represent the posterior probabilities of class membership, and so can be regarded as optimal. For problems involving the prediction of continuous variables, however, the conditional averages provide only a very limited description of the properties of the target variables. This is particularly true for problems in which the mapping to be learned is multi-valued, as often arises in the solution of inverse problems, since the average of several correct target values is not necessarily itself a correct value. In order to obtain a complete description of the data, for the purposes of predicting the outputs corresponding to new input vectors, we must model the conditional probability distribution of the target data, again conditioned on the input vector. In this paper we introduce a new class of network models obtained by combining a conventional neural network with a mixture density model. The complete system is called a Mixture Density Network, and can in principle represent arbitrary conditional probability distributions in the same way that a conventional neural network can represent arbitrary functions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Mixture Density Networks using both a toy problem and a problem involving robot inverse kinematics.

Comparison of estimates and calculations of risk of coronary heart disease by doctors and nurses using different calculation tools in general practice: cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of using different risk calculation tools on how general practitioners and practice nurses evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with clinical data routinely available in patients' records. DESIGN: Subjective estimates of the risk of coronary heart disease and results of four different methods of calculation of risk were compared with each other and a reference standard that had been calculated with the Framingham equation; calculations were based on a sample of patients' records, randomly selected from groups at risk of coronary heart disease. SETTING: General practices in central England. PARTICIPANTS: 18 general practitioners and 18 practice nurses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Agreement of results of risk estimation and risk calculation with reference calculation; agreement of general practitioners with practice nurses; sensitivity and specificity of the different methods of risk calculation to detect patients at high or low risk of coronary heart disease. RESULTS: Only a minority of patients' records contained all of the risk factors required for the formal calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease (concentrations of high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were present in only 21%). Agreement of risk calculations with the reference standard was moderate (kappa=0.33-0.65 for practice nurses and 0.33 to 0.65 for general practitioners, depending on calculation tool), showing a trend for underestimation of risk. Moderate agreement was seen between the risks calculated by general practitioners and practice nurses for the same patients (kappa=0.47 to 0.58). The British charts gave the most sensitive results for risk of coronary heart disease (practice nurses 79%, general practitioners 80%), and it also gave the most specific results for practice nurses (100%), whereas the Sheffield table was the most specific method for general practitioners (89%). CONCLUSIONS: Routine calculation of the risk of coronary heart disease in primary care is hampered by poor availability of data on risk factors. General practitioners and practice nurses are able to evaluate the risk of coronary heart disease with only moderate accuracy. Data about risk factors need to be collected systematically, to allow the use of the most appropriate calculation tools.

Towards a unified understanding of event-related changes in the EEG:the Firefly model of synchronization through cross-frequency phase modulation

Although event-related potentials (ERPs) are widely used to study sensory, perceptual and cognitive processes, it remains unknown whether they are phase-locked signals superimposed upon the ongoing electroencephalogram (EEG) or result from phase-alignment of the EEG. Previous attempts to discriminate between these hypotheses have been unsuccessful but here a new test is presented based on the prediction that ERPs generated by phase-alignment will be associated with event-related changes in frequency whereas evoked-ERPs will not. Using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which allows measurement of narrow-band changes in the EEG without predefining frequency bands, evidence was found for transient frequency slowing in recognition memory ERPs but not in simulated data derived from the evoked model. Furthermore, the timing of phase-alignment was frequency dependent with the earliest alignment occurring at high frequencies. Based on these findings, the Firefly model was developed, which proposes that both evoked and induced power changes derive from frequency-dependent phase-alignment of the ongoing EEG. Simulated data derived from the Firefly model provided a close match with empirical data and the model was able to account for i) the shape and timing of ERPs at different scalp sites, ii) the event-related desynchronization in alpha and synchronization in theta, and iii) changes in the power density spectrum from the pre-stimulus baseline to the post-stimulus period. The Firefly Model, therefore, provides not only a unifying account of event-related changes in the EEG but also a possible mechanism for cross-frequency information processing.

Surface catalysed Suzuki-Miyaura cross-coupling by Pd nanoparticles:an operando XAS study

Size-controlled, catalytically active PVP-stabilised Pd nanoparticles have been studied by operando liquid phase XAS during the Suzuki cross-coupling of iodonanisole and phenylboronic acid in MeOH-toluene using KOMe base. XAS reveals nanoparticles are stable to metal leaching throughout the reaction, with surface density Pd defect sites directly implicated in the catalytic cycle. The efficacy of popular selective chemical and structural poisons for distinguishing heterogeneous and homogeneous contributions in Pd catalysed cross-couplings is also explored. © 2010 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Sonogashira cross-coupling and homocoupling on a silver surface:chlorobenzene and phenylacetylene on Ag(100)

Scanning tunneling microscopy, temperature-programmed reaction, near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy, and density functional theory calculations were used to study the adsorption and reactions of phenylacetylene and chlorobenzene on Ag(100). In the absence of solvent molecules and additives, these molecules underwent homocoupling and Sonogashira cross-coupling in an unambiguously heterogeneous mode. Of particular interest is the use of silver, previously unexplored, and chlorobenzene—normally regarded as relatively inert in such reactions. Both molecules adopt an essentially flat-lying conformation for which the observed and calculated adsorption energies are in reasonable agreement. Their magnitudes indicate that in both cases adsorption is predominantly due to dispersion forces for which interaction nevertheless leads to chemical activation and reaction. Both adsorbates exhibited pronounced island formation, thought to limit chemical activity under the conditions used and posited to occur at island boundaries, as was indeed observed in the case of phenylacetylene. The implications of these findings for the development of practical catalytic systems are considered.

Linking herbivory and pollination: Costs and selection implications in Centrosema virginianum Bentham (Fabaceae: Papilionoideae)

This research first evaluated levels and type of herbivory experienced by Centrosema virginianum plants in their native habitat and how florivory affected the pollinator activity. I found that populations of C. virginianum in two pine rockland habitat fragments experienced higher herbivory levels (15% and 22%) compared with plants in the protected study site (8.6%). I found that bees (Hymenoptera) pollinated butterfly pea. Furthermore, I found that florivores had a negative effect in the pollinators visitation rates and therefore in the seed set of the population. ^ I then conducted a study using a greenhouse population of C. virginianum. I applied artificial herbivory treatments: control, mild herbivory and severe herbivory. Flower size, pollen produced, ovules produced and seeds produced were negatively affected by herbivory. I did not find difference in nectar volume and quality by flowers among treatments. Surprisingly, severely damaged plants produced flowers with larger pollen than those from mildly damaged and undamaged plants. Results showed that plants tolerated mild and severe herbivory with 6% and 17% reduction of total fitness components, respectively. However, the investment of resources was not equisexual. ^ A comparison in the ability of siring seeds between large and small pollen was necessary to establish the biological consequence of size in pollen performance. I found that fruits produced an average of 18.7 ± 1.52 and 17.7 ± 1.50 from large and small pollen fertilization respectively. These findings supported a pollen number-size trade-off in plants under severe herbivory treatments. As far as I know, this result has not previously been reported. ^ Lastly, I tested how herbivory influenced seed abortion patterns in plants, examining how resources are allocated on different regions within fruits under artificial herbivory treatments. I found that self-fertilized fruits had greater seed abortion rates than cross-fertilized fruits. The proportion of seeds aborted was lower in the middle regions of the fruits in cross-fertilized fruits, producing more vigorous progeny. Self-fertilized fruits did not show patterns of seedling vigor. I also found that early abortion was higher closer to the peduncular end of the fruits. Position of seeds within fruits could be important in the seed dispersion mechanism characteristic of this species. ^

Comparison of snail density, standing stock, and body size between Caribbean karst wetlands and other freshwater ecosystems

Synthesizing data from multiple studies generates hypotheses about factors that affect the distribution and abundance of species among ecosystems. Snails are dominant herbivores in many freshwater ecosystems, but there is no comprehensive review of snail density, standing stock, or body size among freshwater ecosystems. We compile data on snail density and standing stock, estimate body size with their quotient, and discuss the major pattern that emerges. We report data from 215 freshwater ecosystems taken from 88 studies that we placed into nine categories. Sixty-five studies reported density, seven reported standing stock, and 16 reported both. Despite the breadth of studies, spatial and temporal sampling scales were limited. Researchers used 25 different sampling devices ranging in area from 0.0015 to 2.5 m2. Most ecosystem categories had similar snail densities, standing stocks, and body sizes suggesting snails shared a similar function among ecosystems. Caribbean karst wetlands were a striking exception with much lower density and standing stock, but large body size. Disparity in body size results from the presence of ampullariids in Caribbean karst wetlands suggesting that biogeography affects the distribution of taxa, and in this case size, among aquatic ecosystems. We propose that resource quality explains the disparity in density and standing stock between Caribbean karst wetlands and other categories. Periphyton in Caribbean karst wetlands has high carbon-to-phosphorous ratios and defensive characteristics that inhibit grazers. Unlike many freshwater ecosystems where snails are key grazers, we hypothesize that a microbial loop captures much of the primary production in Caribbean karst wetlands.

The influence of neighbourhood formality status and socio-economic position on self-rated health among adult men and women: a multilevel, cross sectional, population study from Aleppo, Syria

Background There is substantial evidence from high income countries that neighbourhoods have an influence on health independent of individual characteristics. However, neighbourhood characteristics are rarely taken into account in the analysis of urban health studies from developing countries. Informal urban neighbourhoods are home to about half of the population in Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria (population>2.5 million). This study aimed to examine the influence of neighbourhood socioeconomic status (SES) and formality status on self-rated health (SRH) of adult men and women residing in formal and informal urban neighbourhoods in Aleppo. Methods The study used data from 2038 survey respondents to the Aleppo Household Survey, 2004 (age 18–65 years, 54.8% women, response rate 86%). Respondents were nested in 45 neighbourhoods. Five individual-level SES measures, namely education, employment, car ownership, item ownership and household density, were aggregated to the level of neighbourhood. Multilevel regression models were used to investigate associations. Results We did not find evidence of important SRH variation between neighbourhoods. Neighbourhood average of household item ownership was associated with a greater likelihood of reporting excellent SRH in women; odds ratio (OR) for an increase of one item on average was 2.3 (95% CI 1.3-4.4 (versus poor SRH)) and 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.5 (versus normal SRH)), adjusted for individual characteristics and neighbourhood formality. After controlling for individual and neighbourhood SES measures, women living in informal neighbourhoods were less likely to report poor SRH than women living in formal neighbourhoods (OR= 0.4; 95% CI (0.2- 0.8) (versus poor SRH) and OR=0.5; 95%; CI (0.3-0.9) (versus normal SRH). Conclusions Findings support evidence from high income countries that certain characteristic of neighbourhoods affect men and women in different ways. Further research from similar urban settings in developing countries is needed to understand the mechanisms by which informal neighbourhoods influence women’s health.

Linking Old Librarianship to New: Aligning 5-Steps of The Innovator's DNA in Creating Thematic Discovery Systems for the Everglades

This poster presentation from the May 2015 Florida Library Association Conference, along with the Everglades Explorer discovery portal at http://ee.fiu.edu, demonstrates how traditional bibliographic and curatorial principles can be applied to: 1) selection, cross-walking and aggregation of metadata linking end-users to wide-spread digital resources from multiple silos; 2) harvesting of select PDFs, HTML and media for web archiving and access; 3) selection of CMS domains, sub-domains and folders for targeted searching using an API. Choosing content for this discovery portal is comparable to past scholarly practice of creating and publishing subject bibliographies, except metadata and data are housed in relational databases. This new and yet traditional capacity coincides with: Growth of bibliographic utilities (MarcEdit); Evolution of open-source discovery systems (eXtensible Catalog); Development of target-capable web crawling and archiving systems (Archive-it); and specialized search APIs (Google). At the same time, historical and technical changes – specifically the increasing fluidity and re-purposing of syndicated metadata – make this possible. It equally stems from the expansion of freely accessible digitized legacy and born-digital resources. Innovation principles helped frame the process by which the thematic Everglades discovery portal was created at Florida International University. The path -- to providing for more effective searching and co-location of digital scientific, educational and historical material related to the Everglades -- is contextualized through five concepts found within Dyer and Christensen’s “The Innovator’s DNA: Mastering the five skills of disruptive innovators (2011). The project also aligns with Ranganathan’s Laws of Library Science, especially the 4th Law -- to "save the time of the user.”

Estimating density of a rare and cryptic high-mountain Galliform species, the Buff-throated Partridge Tetraophasis szechenyii

Estimates of abundance or density are essential for wildlife management and conservation. There are few effective density estimates for the Buff-throated Partridge Tetraophasis szechenyii, a rare and elusive high-mountain Galliform species endemic to western China. In this study, we used the temporary emigration N-mixture model to estimate density of this species, with data acquired from playback point count surveys around a sacred area based on indigenous Tibetan culture of protection of wildlife, in Yajiang County, Sichuan, China, during April–June 2009. Within 84 125-m radius points, we recorded 53 partridge groups during three repeats. The best model indicated that detection probability was described by covariates of vegetation cover type, week of visit, time of day, and weather with weak effects, and a partridge group was present during a sampling period with a constant probability. The abundance component was accounted for by vegetation association. Abundance was substantially higher in rhododendron shrubs, fir-larch forests, mixed spruce-larch-birch forests, and especially oak thickets than in pine forests. The model predicted a density of 5.14 groups/km², which is similar to an estimate of 4.7 – 5.3 groups/km² quantified via an intensive spot-mapping effort. The post-hoc estimate of individual density was 14.44 individuals/km², based on the estimated mean group size of 2.81. We suggest that the method we employed is applicable to estimate densities of Buff-throated Partridges in large areas. Given importance of a mosaic habitat for this species, local logging should be regulated. Despite no effect of the conservation area (sacred) on the abundance of Buff-throated Partridges, we suggest regulations linking the sacred mountain conservation area with the official conservation system because of strong local participation facilitated by sacred mountains in land conservation.

Effects of alternating current voltage amplitude and oxide capacitance on mid-gap interface state defect density extractions in In0.53Ga 0.47As capacitors

This work looks at the effect on mid-gap interface state defect density estimates for In0.53Ga0.47As semiconductor capacitors when different AC voltage amplitudes are selected for a fixed voltage bias step size (100 mV) during room temperature only electrical characterization. Results are presented for Au/Ni/Al2O3/In0.53Ga0.47As/InP metal–oxide–semiconductor capacitors with (1) n-type and p-type semiconductors, (2) different Al2O3 thicknesses, (3) different In0.53Ga0.47As surface passivation concentrations of ammonium sulphide, and (4) different transfer times to the atomic layer deposition chamber after passivation treatment on the semiconductor surface—thereby demonstrating a cross-section of device characteristics. The authors set out to determine the importance of the AC voltage amplitude selection on the interface state defect density extractions and whether this selection has a combined effect with the oxide capacitance. These capacitors are prototypical of the type of gate oxide material stacks that could form equivalent metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistors beyond the 32 nm technology node. The authors do not attempt to achieve the best scaled equivalent oxide thickness in this work, as our focus is on accurately extracting device properties that will allow the investigation and reduction of interface state defect densities at the high-k/III–V semiconductor interface. The operating voltage for future devices will be reduced, potentially leading to an associated reduction in the AC voltage amplitude, which will force a decrease in the signal-to-noise ratio of electrical responses and could therefore result in less accurate impedance measurements. A concern thus arises regarding the accuracy of the electrical property extractions using such impedance measurements for future devices, particularly in relation to the mid-gap interface state defect density estimated from the conductance method and from the combined high–low frequency capacitance–voltage method. The authors apply a fixed voltage step of 100 mV for all voltage sweep measurements at each AC frequency. Each of these measurements is repeated 15 times for the equidistant AC voltage amplitudes between 10 mV and 150 mV. This provides the desired AC voltage amplitude to step size ratios from 1:10 to 3:2. Our results indicate that, although the selection of the oxide capacitance is important both to the success and accuracy of the extraction method, the mid-gap interface state defect density extractions are not overly sensitive to the AC voltage amplitude employed regardless of what oxide capacitance is used in the extractions, particularly in the range from 50% below the voltage sweep step size to 50% above it. Therefore, the use of larger AC voltage amplitudes in this range to achieve a better signal-to-noise ratio during impedance measurements for future low operating voltage devices will not distort the extracted interface state defect density.

Gaussian Process Kernels for Cross-Spectrum Analysis in Electrophysiological Time Series

Multi-output Gaussian processes provide a convenient framework for multi-task problems. An illustrative and motivating example of a multi-task problem is multi-region electrophysiological time-series data, where experimentalists are interested in both power and phase coherence between channels. Recently, the spectral mixture (SM) kernel was proposed to model the spectral density of a single task in a Gaussian process framework. This work develops a novel covariance kernel for multiple outputs, called the cross-spectral mixture (CSM) kernel. This new, flexible kernel represents both the power and phase relationship between multiple observation channels. The expressive capabilities of the CSM kernel are demonstrated through implementation of 1) a Bayesian hidden Markov model, where the emission distribution is a multi-output Gaussian process with a CSM covariance kernel, and 2) a Gaussian process factor analysis model, where factor scores represent the utilization of cross-spectral neural circuits. Results are presented for measured multi-region electrophysiological data.

DEP-derived density from two snow trenches from Kohnen Station, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica from the 2012/13 field season

The density of firn is an important property for monitoring and modeling the ice sheet as well as to model the pore close-off and thus to interpret ice core-based greenhouse gas records. One feature, which is still in debate, is the potential existence of an annual cycle of firn density in low-accumulation regions. Several studies describe or assume seasonally successive density layers, horizontally evenly distributed, as seen in radar data. On the other hand, high-resolution density measurements on firn cores in Antarctica and Greenland showed no clear seasonal cycle in the top few meters. A major caveat of most existing snow-pit and firn-core based studies is that they represent one vertical profile from a laterally heterogeneous density field. To overcome this, we created an extensive dataset of horizontal and vertical density data at Kohnen Station, Dronning Maud Land on the East Antarctic Plateau. We drilled and analyzed three 90 m long firn cores as well as 160 one meter long vertical profiles from two elongated snow trenches to obtain a two dimensional view of the density variations. The analysis of the 45 m wide and 1 m deep density fields reveals a seasonal cycle in density. However, the seasonality is overprinted by strong stratigraphic noise, making it invisible when analyzing single firn cores. Our density dataset extends the view from the local ice-core perspective to a hundred meter scale and thus supports linking spatially integrating methods such as radar and seismic studies to ice and firn cores.

The Effect of Foam Core Density on the Flexural and Axial Behaviour of Sandwich Panels of Varying Slenderness with Natural Flax-FRP and Glass-FRP Composite Skins

This study investigates the effect of foam core density and skin type on the behaviour of sandwich panels as structural beams tested in four-point bending and axially compressed columns of varying slenderness and skin thickness. Bio-composite unidirectional flax fibre-reinforced polymer (FFRP) is compared to conventional glass-FRP (GFRP) as the skin material used in conjunction with three polyisocyanurate (PIR) foam cores with densities of 32, 64 and 96 kg/m3. Eighteen 1000 mm long flexural specimens were fabricated and tested to failure comparing the effects of foam core density between three-layer FFRP skinned and single-layer GFRP skinned panels. A total of 132 columns with slenderness ratios (kLe/r) ranging from 22 to 62 were fabricated with single-layer GFRP skins, and one-, three-, and five-layer FFRP skins for each of the three foam core densities. The columns were tested to failure in concentric axial compression using pinned-end conditions to compare the effects of each material type and panel height. All specimens had a foam core cross-section of 100x50 mm with 100 mm wide skins of equal thickness. In both flexural and axial loading, panels with skins comprised of three FFRP layers showed equivalent strength to those with a single GFRP layer for all slenderness ratios and core densities examined. Doubling the core density from 32 to 64 kg/m3 and tripling the density to 96 kg/m3 led to flexural strength increases of 82 and 213%, respectively. Both FFRP and GFRP columns showed a similar variety of failure modes related to slenderness. Low slenderness of 22-25 failed largely due to localized single skin buckling, while those with high slenderness of 51-61 failed primarily by global buckling followed by secondary skin buckling. Columns with intermediate slenderness experienced both localized and global failure modes. High density foam cores more commonly exhibited core shear failure. Doubling the core density of the columns resulted in peak axial load increases, across all slenderness ratios, of 73, 56, 72 and 71% for skins with one, three and five FFRP layers, and one GFRP layer, respectively. Tripling the core density resulted in respective peak load increases of 116, 130, 176 and 170%.

Linking environmental variables with regional- scale variability in ecological structure and standing stock of carbon within UK kelp forests

Kelp forests represent some of the most productive and diverse habitats on Earth. Understanding drivers of ecological patterns at large spatial scales is critical for effective management and conservation of marine habitats. We surveyed kelp forests dominated by Laminaria hyperborea (Gunnerus) Foslie 1884 across 9° latitude and >1000 km of coastline and measured a number of physical parameters at multiple scales to link ecological structure and standing stock of carbon with environmental variables. Kelp density, biomass, morphology and age were generally greater in exposed sites within regions, highlighting the importance of wave exposure in structuring L. hyperborea populations. At the regional scale, wave-exposed kelp canopies in the cooler regions (the north and west of Scotland) were greater in biomass, height and age than in warmer regions (southwest Wales and England). The range and maximal values of estimated standing stock of carbon contained within kelp forests was greater than in historical studies, suggesting that this ecosystem property may have been previously undervalued. Kelp canopy density was positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and fine-scale water motion, whereas kelp canopy biomass and the standing stock of carbon were positively correlated with large-scale wave fetch and light levels and negatively correlated with temperature. As light availability and summer temperature were important drivers of kelp forest biomass, effective management of human activities that may affect coastal water quality is necessary to maintain ecosystem functioning, while increased temperatures related to anthropogenic climate change may impact the structure of kelp forests and the ecosystem services they provide.