Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

Scientometric analysis of some disciplines: Comparison of Indian institutions with other international institutions

We have carried out a three-part study comparing the research performance of Indian institutions with that of other international institutions. In the first part, the publication profiles of various Indian institutions were examined and ranked based on the h-index and p-index. We found that the institutions of national importance contributed the highest in terms of publications and citations per institution. In the second part of the study, we looked at the publication profiles of various Indian institutions in the high-impact journals and compared these profiles against that of the top Asian and US universities. We found that the number of papers in these journals from India was miniscule compared to the US universities. Recognizing that the publication profiles of various institutions depend on the field/departments, we studied the publication profiles of many science and engineering departments at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore, the Indian Institutes of Technology, as well as top Indian universities. Because the number of faculty in each department varies widely, we have computed the publications and citations per faculty per year for each department. We have also compared this with other departments in various Asian and US universities. We found that the top Indian institution based on various parameters in various disciplines was IISc, but overall even the top Indian institutions do not compare favourably with the top US or Asian universities.

Optimum aperture distributions in the presence of blockage

A method is presented for optimising the performance indices of aperture antennas in the presence of blockage. An N-dimensional objective function is formed for maximising the directivity factor of a circular aperture with blockage under sidelobe-level constraints, and is minimised using the simplex search method. Optimum aperture distributions are computed for a circular aperture with blockage of circular geometry that gives the maximum directivity factor under sidelobe-level constraints.

Bayesian Analysis of a Superimposed Renewal Process

Stochastic behavior of an aero-engine failure/repair process has been analyzed from a Bayesian perspective. Number of failures/repairs in the component-sockets of this multi-component system are assumed to follow independent renewal processes with Weibull inter-arrival times. Based on the field failure/repair data of a large number of such engines and independent Gamma priors on the scale parameters and log-concave priors on the shape parameters, an exact method of sampling from the resulting posterior distributions of the parameters has been proposed. These generated parameter values are next utilised in obtaining the posteriors of the expected number of system repairs, system failure rate, and the conditional intensity function, which are computed using a recursive formula.

Comparative Study of Predictions of Flexural Strength of Steel Fiber Concrete

Several methods are available for predicting flexural strength of steel fiber concrete composites. In these methods, direct tensile strength, split cylinder strength, and cube strength are the basic engineering parameters that must be determined to predict the flexural strength of such composites. Various simplified forms of stress distribution are used in each method to formulate the prediction equations for flexural strength. In this paper, existing methods are reviewed and compared, and a modified empirical approach is developed to predict the flexural strength of fiber concrete composites. The direct tensile strength of the composite is used as the basic parameter in this approach. Stress distribution is established from the findings of flexural tests conducted as part of this investigation on fiber concrete prisms. A comparative study of the test values of an earlier investigation on fiber concrete slabs and the computed values from existing methods, including the one proposed, is presented.

Vibrational analysis of 1,3-thiazolidine-2-thione and its selenium analogue

The i.r. spectra of 1,3-thiazolidine-2-thione, ?2-selone and their N-deuteriated derivatives have been investigated in the region between 4000 and 20 cm?1. A complete assignment of the fundamental vibrational frequencies has been made based upon the normal coordinate analysis carried out using a simple Urey�Bradley force field supplemented by the valence force constants for the out-of-plane vibrations of the planar molecular skeleton. The proposed assignments are discussed in relation to the group frequencies in structurally related molecules and in terms of the computed potential energy distributions among the symmetry coordinates.

Systems analysis for planning of air fleets and maintenance facilities

The high cost and extraordinary demands made on sophisticated air defence systems, pose hard challenges to the managers and engineers who plan the operation and maintenance of such systems. This paper presents a study aimed at developing simulation and systems analysis techniques for the effective planning and efficient operation of small fleets of aircraft, typical of the air force of a developing country. We consider an important aspect of fleet management: the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet. At this stage, we consider a single flying-base, where the operationally ready aircraft are stationed, and a repair-depot, where the planes are overhauled. An important measure of operational effectiveness is ‘ availability ’, which may be defined as the expected fraction of the fleet fit for use at a given instant. The tour of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot system through a cycle of ‘ operationally ready ’ and ‘ scheduled overhaul ’ phases is represented first by a deterministic flow process and then by a cyclic queuing process. Initially the steady-state availability at the flying-base is computed under the assumptions of Poisson arrivals, exponential service times and an equivalent singleserver repair-depot. This analysis also brings out the effect of fleet size on availability. It defines a ‘ small ’ fleet essentially in terms of the important ‘ traffic ’ parameter of service rate/maximum arrival rate.A simulation model of the system has been developed using GPSS to study sensitivity to distributional assumptions, to validate the principal assumptions of the analytical model such as the single-server assumption and to obtain confidence intervals for the statistical parameters of interest.

Exploring glueball wave functions on the lattice

We calculate the string tension and 0++ and 2++ glueball masses in pure gauge QCD using an improved lattice action. We compare various smearing methods, and find that the best glueball signal is obtained using smeared Wilson loops of a size of about 0.5 fm. Our results for mass ratios m0++/√σ=3.5(3) and m2++/m0++=1.6(2) are consistent with those computed with the simple plaquette action.

Madelung energy and hole location in YBa2Cu4O8

The Madelung energy of YBa2Cu4O8 has been computed for different locations of the hole in the structure. The lowest-energy configuration corresponds to partial localization of the hole on O(1) and O(11) sites.

Roofed polyquinanes: synthesis and electronic structure

Starting from readily available norbornenobenzoquinone 7 and employing a photothermal metathesis reaction as the main strategy, novel "roofed" polyquinane bisenones 3 and 13 have been synthesized. Among these, the former is potentially serviceable for further elaboration to dodecahedrane 1. Catalytic hydrogenation of 3 provided the dione 12, which fully inscribes the circumference of dodecahedrane sphere. The "roofed" C-16-bisenone 3 has been successfully annulated to C19-bisenone 24 and C19-trisenone 26 by employing the Greene methodology and Pauson-Khand reaction, respectively. The molecular structures of 3 and 13 were computed using molecular mechanics and semiempirical MO methods. The nonbonded distances between the double bonds vary strongly with the method employed. The interactions between the pi-MO's were, therefore, probed by means of photoelectron (PE) spectroscopy. Comparison with the PE spectra of a series of model systems with increasing complexity enabled an unambiguous assignment of the observed peaks. The symmetric and antisymmetric combinations of the pi-MO's of the enone moieties of 3 and 13 show large splittings, characteristic of propano-bridged systems in which through-space and through-bond effects act in concert.

Dental identification and aspects of medico-legal investigations of the Finnish victims of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004

Tsunami waves of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004 claimed approximately 230 000 lives and started the biggest identification operation in Interpol's history. The aim of this study was to resolve methods of the identification and results received. The viewpoint is mainly that of forensic odontology, but also includes other means of identification and results of the medico-legal examination performed in Finland. Of the 5395 victims in Thailand, approximately 2 400 were foreigners from 36 nations including 177 Finnish nationals. Additionally, a Finnish woman perished in Sri Lanka and a severely injured man after the evacuation in a hospital. The final numbers of missing persons and dead bodies registered in the Information Management Centre in Phuket,Thailand, were 3 574 ante-mortem (AM) and 3 681 post-mortem (PM) files. The number of identifications by December 2006 was 3 271 or 89% of the victims registered. Of Finnish victims, 172 have been identified in Thailand and 163 repatriated to Finland. One adult and four children are still missing. For AM data, a list of Finnish missing persons including 178 names was published on 30 December 2004. By February 2005 all useful dental AM data were available. Five persons on the list living in Finland lacked records. Based on the AM database, for the children under age 18 years (n=60) dental identification could be established for 12 (20%). The estimated number for adults (n=112) was 96 (86%). The final identification rate, based on PM examinations in Finland, was 14 (25%) for children (n= 56) and 98 (90%) for adults (n= 109). The number of Finnish victims identified by dental methods, 112 (68%), was high compared to all examined in Thailand (43%). DNA was applied for 26 Finnish children and for 6 adults, fingerprints for 24 and 7, respectively. In 12 cases two methods were applied. Every victim (n=165) underwent in Finland a medico-legal investigation including an autopsy with sampling specimens for DNA, the toxicological and histological investigation. Digital radiographs and computed tomography were taken of the whole body to verify autopsy findings and bring out changes caused by trauma, autolysis, and sampling for DNA in Thailand. Data for identification purposes were also noted. Submersion was the cause of death for 101 of 109 adults (92.7%), and trauma for 8 (7.3%). Injuries were 33 times contributing factors for submersion and 3 times for trauma-based death. Submersion was the cause of death for 51 (92.7%) children and trauma for 4 (7.3%). Injuries were in 3 cases contributing factors in submersion and once in trauma-based death. The success of the dental identification of Finnish victims is mainly based on careful registration of dental records, and on an education program from 1999 in forensic odontology.

Thermodynamics Of Aluminum Strontium Alloys

The activity of strontium in liquid Al-Sr alloys (X(Sr) less-than-or-equal-to 0.17) at 1323 K has been determined using the Knudsen effusion-mass loss technique. At higher concentrations (X(Sr) greater-than-or-equal-to 0.28), the activity of strontium has been determined by the pseudoisopiestic technique. Activity of aluminium has been derived by Gibbs-Duhem integration. The concentration - concentration structure factor of Bhatia and Thornton at zero wave vector has been computed from the thermodynamic data. The behaviour of the mean square thermal fluctuation in composition and the thermodynamic mixing functions suggest association tendencies in the liquid state. The associated solution model with Al2Sr as the predominant complex can account for the properties of the liquid alloy. Thermodynamic data for the intermetallic compunds in the Al-Sr system have been derived using the phase diagram and the Gibbs' energy and enthalpy of mixing of liquid alloys. The data indicate the need for redetermination of the phase diagram near the strontium-rich corner.

Vapor-Pressure Of Calcium Corresponding To The Reduction Of Calcia By Aluminum

The equilibrium pressure of calcium corresponding to the reduction reaction 6CaO (s) + 2Al (l) half-arrow-right-over-half-arrow-left 3CaO.Al2O3 (s) + 3Ca (g) has been measured by Knudsen effusion - mass loss analysis in the temperature range 1190 - 1500 K. The measured vapour pressure can be expressed as a function of temperature by the relation: log p(Ca) (Pa) = -10,670/T + 9.267 The calcium generated is partially absorbed by aluminium to form an alloy. The equilibrium composition of the alloy at 1373 K was found to be 22 mol% Ca - 78 mol% Al. The measured vapour pressure is in good agreement with that computed from thermodynamic data.

Polarization studies in electromagnetic scattering by small Solar-system particles

In remote-sensing studies, particles that are comparable to the wavelength exhibit characteristic features in electromagnetic scattering, especially in the degree of linear polarization. These features vary with the physical properties of the particles, such as shape, size, refractive index, and orientation. In the thesis, the direct problem of computing the unknown scattered quantities using the known properties of the particles and the incident radiation is solved at both optical and radar spectral regions in a unique way. The internal electromagnetic fields of wavelength-scale particles are analyzed by using both novel and established methods to show how the internal fields are related to the scattered fields in the far zone. This is achieved by using the tools and methods that were developed specifically to reveal the internal field structure of particles and to study the mechanisms that relate the structure to the scattering characteristics of those particles. It is shown that, for spherical particles, the internal field is a combination of a forward propagating wave with the apparent wavelength determined by the refractive index of the particle, and a standing wave pattern with the apparent wavelength the same as for the incident wave. Due to the surface curvature and dielectric nature of the particle, the incident wave front undergoes a phase shift, and the resulting internal wave is focused mostly at the forward part of the particle similar to an optical lens. This focusing is also seen for irregular particles. It is concluded that, for both spherical and nonspherical particles, the interference at the far field between the partial waves that originate from these concentrated areas in the particle interior, is responsible for the specific polarization features that are common for wavelength-scale particles, such as negative values and local extrema in the degree of linear polarization, asymmetry of the phase function, and enhancement of intensity near the backscattering direction. The papers presented in this thesis solve the direct problem for particles with both simple and irregular shapes to demonstrate that these interference mechanisms are common for all dielectric wavelength-scale particles. Furthermore, it is shown that these mechanisms can be applied to both regolith particles in the optical wavelengths and hydrometeors at microwave frequencies. An advantage from this kind of study is that it does not matter whether the observation is active (e.g., polarimetric radar) or passive (e.g., optical telescope). In both cases, the internal field is computed for two mutually perpendicular incident polarizations, so that the polarization characteristics can then be analyzed according to the relation between these fields and the scattered far field.

Improving the phenomenology of Kl3 form factors with analyticity and unitarity

The shape of the vector and scalar K-l3 form factors is investigated by exploiting analyticity and unitarity in a model-independent formalism. The method uses as input dispersion relations for certain correlators computed in perturbative QCD in the deep Euclidean region, soft-meson theorems, and experimental information on the phase and modulus of the form factors along the elastic part of the unitarity cut. We derive constraints on the coefficients of the parameterizations valid in the semileptonic range and on the truncation error. The method also predicts low-energy domains in the complex t plane where zeros of the form factors are excluded. The results are useful for K-l3 data analyses and provide theoretical underpinning for recent phenomenological dispersive representations for the form factors.