Population-level assessment of risks of pesticides to birds and mammals in the UK

It is generally acknowledged that population-level assessments provide,I better measure of response to toxicants than assessments of individual-level effects. population-level assessments generally require the use of models to integrate potentially complex data about the effects of toxicants on life-history traits, and to provide a relevant measure of ecological impact. Building on excellent earlier reviews we here briefly outline the modelling options in population-level risk assessment. Modelling is used to calculate population endpoints from available data, which is often about Individual life histories, the ways that individuals interact with each other, the environment and other species, and the ways individuals are affected by pesticides. As population endpoints, we recommend the use of population abundance, population growth rate, and the chance of population persistence. We recommend two types of model: simple life-history models distinguishing two life-history stages, juveniles and adults; and spatially-explicit individual-based landscape models. Life-history models are very quick to set up and run, and they provide a great deal or insight. At the other extreme, individual-based landscape models provide the greatest verisimilitude, albeit at the cost of greatly increased complexity. We conclude with a discussion of the cations of the severe problems of parameterising models.

An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK

Geological carbon dioxide storage (CCS) has the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK. Amid concerns over maintaining security, and hence diversity, of supply, CCS could allow the continued use of coal, oil and gas whilst avoiding the CO2 emissions currently associated with fossil fuel use. This project has explored some of the geological, environmental, technical, economic and social implications of this technology. The UK is well placed to exploit CCS with a large offshore storage capacity, both in disused oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. This capacity should be sufficient to store CO2 from the power sector (at current levels) for a least one century, using well understood and therefore likely to be lower-risk, depleted hydrocarbon fields and contained parts of aquifers. It is very difficult to produce reliable estimates of the (potentially much larger) storage capacity of the less well understood geological reservoirs such as non-confined parts of aquifers. With the majority of its large coal fired power stations due to be retired during the next 15 to 20 years, the UK is at a natural decision point with respect to the future of power generation from coal; the existence of both national reserves and the infrastructure for receiving imported coal makes clean coal technology a realistic option. The notion of CCS as a ‘bridging’ or ‘stop-gap’ technology (i.e. whilst we develop ‘genuinely’ sustainable renewable energy technologies) needs to be examined somewhat critically, especially given the scale of global coal reserves. If CCS plant is built, then it is likely that technological innovation will bring down the costs of CO2 capture, such that it could become increasingly attractive. As with any capitalintensive option, there is a danger of becoming ‘locked-in’ to a CCS system. The costs of CCS in our model for UK power stations in the East Midlands and Yorkshire to reservoirs in the North Sea are between £25 and £60 per tonne of CO2 captured, transported and stored. This is between about 2 and 4 times the current traded price of a tonne of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In addition to the technical and economic requirements of the CCS technology, it should also be socially and environmentally acceptable. Our research has shown that, given an acceptance of the severity and urgency of addressing climate change, CCS is viewed favourably by members of the public, provided it is adopted within a portfolio of other measures. The most commonly voiced concern from the public is that of leakage and this remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty with CCS. It is not possible to make general statements concerning storage security; assessments must be site specific. The impacts of any potential leakage are also somewhat uncertain but should be balanced against the deleterious effects of increased acidification in the oceans due to uptake of elevated atmospheric CO2 that have already been observed. Provided adequate long term monitoring can be ensured, any leakage of CO2 from a storage site is likely to have minimal localised impacts as long as leaks are rapidly repaired. A regulatory framework for CCS will need to include risk assessment of potential environmental and health and safety impacts, accounting and monitoring and liability for the long term. In summary, although there remain uncertainties to be resolved through research and demonstration projects, our assessment demonstrates that CCS holds great potential for significant cuts in CO2 emissions as we develop long term alternatives to fossil fuel use. CCS can contribute to reducing emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in the near term (i.e. peak-shaving the future atmospheric concentration of CO2), with the potential to continue to deliver significant CO2 reductions over the long term.

Probiotics and cancer: from in vitro to human studies

Studies in cell cultures and animal models provide evidence that probiotics can beneficially influence various stages in development of colon cancer including tumor initiation, promotion and metastasis. For example, oral administration of Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium strains can prevent genotoxic damage to the colonic epithelium (considered to be an early stage of the carcinogenic process). Administration to rats of probiotics reduced the incidence of carcinogen-induced pre-cancerous lesions (aberrant crypt foci) in the colon. Furthermore a combination of Bifidobacterium longum and inulin (a prebiotic) was more effective than either treatment alone. In this latter study, the dietary treatments were given after exposure to the carcinogen, which suggests that the protective effects were being exerted at the promotional phase of carcinogenesis. L. acidophilus feeding has been shown to decrease the incidence of colon tumors in rats challenged with a carcinogen and B. longum reduced the incidence of carcinogeninduced colon, liver and mammary tumors. There is limited evidence from epidemiological studies for protective effects of products containing probiotics in humans, but a number of recent dietary intervention studies in healthy subjects and in polyp and cancer patients have yielded promising results on the basis of biomarkers of cancer risk and grade of colorectal tumors.

Entropic risk analysis by a high level decision support system (e-FDSS) for construction SMEs

The method of entropy has been useful in evaluating inconsistency on human judgments. This paper illustrates an entropy-based decision support system called e-FDSS to the solution of multicriterion risk and decision analysis in projects of construction small and medium enterprises (SMEs). It is optimized and solved by fuzzy logic, entropy, and genetic algorithms. A case study demonstrated the use of entropy in e-FDSS on analyzing multiple risk criteria in the predevelopment stage of SME projects. Survey data studying the degree of impact of selected project risk criteria on different projects were input into the system in order to evaluate the preidentified project risks in an impartial environment. Without taking into account the amount of uncertainty embedded in the evaluation process; the results showed that all decision vectors are indeed full of bias and the deviations of decisions are finally quantified providing a more objective decision and risk assessment profile to the stakeholders of projects in order to search and screen the most profitable projects.

The SAFE FOODS framework for improved risk analysis of foods

Three main changes to current risk analysis processes are proposed to improve their transparency, openness, and accountability. First, the addition of a formal framing stage would allow interested parties, experts and officials to work together as needed to gain an initial shared understanding of the issue, the objectives of regulatory action, and alternative risk management measures. Second, the scope of the risk assessment is expanded to include the assessment of health and environmental benefits as well as risks, and the explicit consideration of economic- and social-impacts of risk management action and their distribution. Moreover approaches were developed for deriving improved information from genomic, proteomic and metabolomic profiling methods and for probabilistic modelling of health impacts for risk assessment purposes. Third, in an added evaluation stage, interested parties, experts, and officials may compare and weigh the risks, costs, and benefits and their distribution. As part of a set of recommendations on risk communication, we propose that reports on each stage should be made public.

A value chain approach to animal diseases risk management: technical foundations and practical framework for field application

Classical risk assessment approaches for animal diseases are influenced by the probability of release, exposure and consequences of a hazard affecting a livestock population. Once a pathogen enters into domestic livestock, potential risks of exposure and infection both to animals and people extend through a chain of economic activities related to producing, buying and selling of animals and products. Therefore, in order to understand economic drivers of animal diseases in different ecosystems and to come up with effective and efficient measures to manage disease risks from a country or region, the entire value chain and related markets for animal and product needs to be analysed to come out with practical and cost effective risk management options agreed by actors and players on those value chains. Value chain analysis enriches disease risk assessment providing a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration, which seems to be in increasing demand for problems concerning infectious livestock diseases. The best way to achieve this is to ensure that veterinary epidemiologists and social scientists work together throughout the process at all levels.

Soy products in the management of breast cancer

Purpose of review: Meta-analyses of epidemiological studies of soy consumption and breast cancer risk have demonstrated modest protective effects, usually attributed to isoflavones. Concern has been expressed, however, that the estrogenic activity of isoflavones may have adverse effects on breast cancer recurrence. Recent findings: The review covers epidemiological studies that have investigated the impact of soy consumption in breast cancer patients on recurrence and mortality. There are preliminary data to suggest that soy has differential effects on recurrence in human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 negative tumours. Recent studies on mechanisms of action of soy in breast cancer provide insights into epigenetic effects and the interaction of isoflavones with IGF-1 and with a number of polymorphisms of genes associated with breast cancer risk such as MDM2 and CYP1B1. Summary: Overall, these studies indicate that soy foods consumed at levels comparable to those in Asian populations have no detrimental effects on risk of breast cancer recurrence and in some cases significantly reduce the risk. Importantly, soy does not appear to interfere with tamoxifen or anastrozole therapy. Recent research suggests that women who are at increased risk of breast cancer due to polymorphisms in genes associated with the disease may especially benefit from high soy isoflavone intake.

In vitro and in vivo models of colorectal cancer: antigenotoxic activity of berries.

The etiology of colorectal cancer (CRC), a common cause of cancer-related mortality globally, has strong associations with diet. There is considerable epidemiological evidence that fruits and vegetables are associated with reduced risk of CRC. This paper reviews the extensive evidence, both from in vitro studies and animal models, that components of berry fruits can modulate biomarkers of DNA damage and that these effects may be potentially chemoprotective, given the likely role that oxidative damage plays in mutation rate and cancer risk. Human intervention trials with berries are generally consistent in indicating a capacity to significantly decrease oxidative damage to DNA, but represent limited evidence for anticarcinogenicity, relying as they do on surrogate risk markers. To understand the effects of berry consumption on colorectal cancer risk, future studies will need to be well controlled, with defined berry extracts, using suitable and clinically relevant end points and considering the importance of the gut microbiota.

Development of a food-exchange model to replace saturated fat with MUFAS and n-6 PUFAS in adults at moderate cardiovascular risk

The recommendation to reduce saturated fatty acid (SFA) consumption to ≤10% of total energy (%TE) is a key public health target aimed at lowering cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Replacement of SFA with unsaturated fats may provide greater benefit than replacement with carbohydrates, yet the optimal type of fat is unclear. The aim was to develop a flexible food-exchange model to investigate the effects of substituting SFAs with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) or n-6 (ω-6) polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) on CVD risk factors. In this parallel study, UK adults aged 21-60 y with moderate CVD risk (50% greater than the population mean) were identified using a risk assessment tool (n = 195; 56% females). Three 16-wk isoenergetic diets of specific fatty acid (FA) composition (%TE SFA:%TE MUFA:%TE n-6 PUFA) were designed using spreads, oils, dairy products, and snacks as follows: 1) SFA-rich diet (17:11:4; n = 65); 2) MUFA-rich diet (9:19:4; n = 64); and 3) n-6 PUFA-rich diet (9:13:10; n = 66). Each diet provided 36%TE total fat. Dietary targets were broadly met for all intervention groups, reaching 17.6 ± 0.4%TE SFA, 18.5 ± 0.3%TE MUFA, and 10.4 ± 0.3%TE n-6 PUFA in the respective diets, with significant overall diet effects for the changes in SFA, MUFA, and n-6 PUFA between groups (P < 0.001). There were no differences in the changes of total fat, protein, carbohydrate, and alcohol intake or anthropometric measures between groups. Plasma phospholipid FA composition showed changes from baseline in the proportions of total SFA, MUFA, and n-6 PUFA for each diet group, with significant overall diet effects for total SFA and MUFA between groups (P < 0.001). In conclusion, successful implementation of the food-exchange model broadly achieved the dietary target intakes for the exchange of SFA with MUFA or n-6 PUFA with minimal disruption to the overall diet in a free-living population. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01478958.

Virgin olive oil phenolics extract inhibit invasion of HT115 human colon cancer cells in vitro and in vivo

The decreased cancer risk associated with consumption of olive oil may be due to the presence of phenolics which can modulate pathways including apoptosis and invasion that are relevant to carcinogenesis. We have previously shown that a virgin olive oil phenolics extract (OVP) inhibited invasion of HT115 colon cancer cells in vitro. In the current study we assessed the in vitro effects of OVP (25 μg mL(-1)) on HT115 cell migration, spreading and integrin expression. Furthermore, the anti-metastatic activity of OVP - at a dose equivalent to 25 mg per kg per day for 2, 8 or 10 weeks - was assessed in a Severe Combined ImmunoDeficiency (SCID) Balb-c mouse model. After 24 h OVP did not inhibit cell migration but significantly reduced cell spreading on fibronectin (65% of control; p < 0.05) and expression of a range of α and β integrins was modulated. In vivo, OVP by gavage significantly (p < 0.05) decreased not only tumour volume but also the number of metastases in SCID Balb-c mice. Collectively, the data suggest that - possibly through modulation of integrin expression - OVP decreases invasion in vitro and also inhibits metastasis in vivo.

Polyphenols, glucosinolates, dietary fibre and colon cancer: Understanding the potential of specific types of fruit and vegetables to reduce bowel cancer progression

Colorectal cancer is the third most prevalent cancer worldwide and the most common diet-related cancer, influenced by diets rich in red meat, low in plant foods and high in saturated fats. Observational studies have shown that fruit and vegetable intake may reduce colorectal cancer risks, although the precise bioactive components remain unclear. This review will outline the evidence for the role of polyphenols, glucosinolates and fibres against cancer progression in the gastrointestinal tract. Those bioactive compounds are considered protective agents against colon cancer, with evidence taken from epidemiological, human clinical, animal and in vitro studies. Various mechanisms of action have been postulated, such as the potential of polyphenols and glucosinolates to inhibit cancer cell growth and the actions of insoluble fibres as prebiotics and the evidence for these actions are detailed within. In addition, recent evidence suggests that polyphenols also have the potential to shift the gut ecology in a beneficial manner. Such actions of both fibre and polyphenols in the gastrointestinal tract and through interaction with gut epithelial cells may act in an additive manner to help explain why certain fruits and vegetables, but not all, act to differing extents to inhibit cancer incidence and progression. Indeed, a focus on the individual actions of such fruit and vegetable components, in particular polyphenols, glucosinolates and fibres is necessary to help explain which components are active in reducing gastrointestinal cancer risk.

Impact of palm date consumption on microbiota growth and large intestinal health: a randomised, controlled, cross-over, human intervention study

The reported inverse association between the intake of plant-based foods and a reduction in the prevalence of colorectal cancer may be partly mediated by interactions between insoluble fibre and (poly)phenols and the intestinal microbiota. In the present study, we assessed the impact of palm date consumption, rich in both polyphenols and fibre, on the growth of colonic microbiota and markers of colon cancer risk in a randomised, controlled, cross-over human intervention study. A total of twenty-two healthy human volunteers were randomly assigned to either a control group (maltodextrin-dextrose, 37·1 g) or an intervention group (seven dates, approximately 50 g). Each arm was of 21 d duration and was separated by a 14-d washout period in a cross-over manner. Changes in the growth of microbiota were assessed by fluorescence in situ hybridisation analysis, whereas SCFA levels were assessed using HPLC. Further, ammonia concentrations, faecal water genotoxicity and anti-proliferation ability were also assessed using different assays, which included cell work and the Comet assay. Accordingly, dietary intakes, anthropometric measurements and bowel movement assessment were also carried out. Although the consumption of dates did not induce significant changes in the growth of select bacterial groups or SCFA, there were significant increases in bowel movements and stool frequency (P<0·01; n 21) and significant reductions in stool ammonia concentration (P<0·05; n 21) after consumption of dates, relative to baseline. Furthermore, date fruit intake significantly reduced genotoxicity in human faecal water relative to control (P<0·01; n 21). Our data indicate that consumption of date fruit may reduce colon cancer risk without inducing changes in the microbiota.

Assessment and improvement of biotransfer models to cow’s milk and beef used in exposure assessment tools for organic pollutants

The aim of this study was to assess and improve the accuracy of biotransfer models for the organic pollutants (PCBs, PCDD/Fs, PBDEs, PFCAs, and pesticides) into cow’s milk and beef used in human exposure assessment. Metabolic rate in cattle is known as a key parameter for this biotransfer, however few experimental data and no simulation methods are currently available. In this research, metabolic rate was estimated using existing QSAR biodegradation models of microorganisms (BioWIN) and fish (EPI-HL and IFS-HL). This simulated metabolic rate was then incorporated into the mechanistic cattle biotransfer models (RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA, and CKow). The goodness of fit tests showed that RAIDAR, ACC-HUMAN, OMEGA model performances were significantly improved using either of the QSARs when comparing the new model outputs to observed data. The CKow model is the only one that separates the processes in the gut and liver. This model showed the lowest residual error of all the models tested when the BioWIN model was used to represent the ruminant metabolic process in the gut and the two fish QSARs were used to represent the metabolic process in the liver. Our testing included EUSES and CalTOX which are KOW-regression models that are widely used in regulatory assessment. New regressions based on the simulated rate of the two metabolic processes are also proposed as an alternative to KOW-regression models for a screening risk assessment. The modified CKow model is more physiologically realistic, but has equivalent usability to existing KOW-regression models for estimating cattle biotransfer of organic pollutants.

The risk of water stress

Water resources are under stress in many regions due to increasing demands and, in places, falling quality. Climate change has the potential to change the risks of water stress.1 The focus in this section is on strategic definitions of water stress, which are based on generalized indicators of the amount of water that is available and the demands on that resource. Operational definitions, on the other hand, are typically based on the reliability of the supply of appropriate quality water and are strongly determined by local conditions.

The risk of river flooding

This section of the report outlines the effect of different levels of climate change on exposure to river flood risk, at national and watershed scales.