The potential utility of a staging model as a course specifier: a bipolar disorder perspective.

Staging models are widely used in clinical medicine, and offer an insight into the progressive nature of many disorders. In general, the earlier stages of illness may be associated with a better prognosis and a higher treatment response. Once chronicity is reached, more complex and invasive treatments may be required, and the utility of treatments may decline. There is evidence that treatment response is greatest in the early phases of the disorder. There is also a progressive social and psychological burden of ongoing illness. This is paralleled by the twin notions of neuroprotection, which is supported by increasing evidence that structural changes in the disorder may be progressive and reversible with algorithm appropriate treatment, and that of early intervention, which posits that the optimal window for intervention is early in the illness course. A staging model compliments existing and proposed classifications of bipolar disorder, adding a temporal dimension to a cross sectional view. It may inform treatment choice and prognosis, and could have utility as a course specifier.

Hierarchical Bayesian models of subtask learning

 The current study used Bayesian hierarchical methods to challenge and extend previous work on subtask learning consistency. A general model of individual-level subtask learning was proposed focusing on power and exponential functions with constraints to test for inconsistency. To study subtask learning, we developed a novel computer-based booking task, which logged participant actions, enabling measurement of strategy use and subtask performance. Model comparison was performed using deviance information criterion (DIC), posterior predictive checks, plots of model fits, and model recovery simulations. Results showed that although learning tended to be monotonically decreasing and decelerating, and approaching an asymptote for all subtasks, there was substantial inconsistency in learning curves both at the group- and individual-levels. This inconsistency was most apparent when constraining both the rate and the ratio of learning to asymptote to be equal across subtasks, thereby giving learning curves only 1 parameter for scaling. The inclusion of 6 strategy covariates provided improved prediction of subtask performance capturing different subtask learning processes and subtask trade-offs. In addition, strategy use partially explained the inconsistency in subtask learning. Overall, the model provided a more nuanced representation of how complex tasks can be decomposed in terms of simpler learning mechanisms.

Urbanicity and lifestyle risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases in rural Uganda: a cross-sectional study

Urban living is associated with unhealthy lifestyles that can increase the risk of cardiometabolic diseases. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where the majority of people live in rural areas, it is still unclear if there is a corresponding increase in unhealthy lifestyles as rural areas adopt urban characteristics. This study examines the distribution of urban characteristics across rural communities in Uganda and their associations with lifestyle risk factors for chronic diseases.

Clustering of diet, physical activity and sedentary behaviour among Australian children: cross-sectional and longitudinal associations with overweight and obesity

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Evidence suggests diet, physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour cluster together in children, but research supporting an association with overweight/obesity is equivocal. Furthermore, the stability of clusters over time is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the clustering of diet, PA and sedentary behaviour in Australian children and cross-sectional and longitudinal associations with overweight/obesity. Stability of obesity-related clusters over 3-years was also examined. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data were drawn from the baseline (T1: 2002/03) and follow-up waves (T2: 2005/06) of the Health Eating and Play Study. Parents of Australian children aged 5-6 (n=87) and 10-12 years (n=123) completed questionnaires. Children wore accelerometers and height and weight were measured. Obesity-related clusters were determined using K-medians cluster analysis. Multivariate regression models assessed cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between cluster membership, and BMI z-score and weight status. Kappa statistics assessed cluster stability over time. RESULTS: Three clusters, labelled 'most Healthy', 'Energy-dense (ED) consumers who watch TV' and 'high sedentary behaviour/low moderate-to-vigorous physical activity' were identified at baseline and at follow-up. No cross-sectional associations were found between cluster membership, and BMI z-score or weight status at baseline. Longitudinally, children in the 'ED consumers who watch TV' cluster had a higher odds of being overweight/obese at follow-up (OR=2.8; 95% CI: 1.1, 6.9; P<0.05). Tracking of cluster membership was fair to moderate in younger (K=0.24; P=0.0001) and older children (K=0.46; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study identified an unhealthy cluster of TV viewing with ED food/drink consumption which predicted overweight/obesity in a small longitudinal sample of Australian children. Cluster stability was fair to moderate over three years and is a novel finding. Prospective research in larger samples is needed to examine how obesity-related clusters track over time and influence the development of overweight and obesity.International Journal of Obesity accepted article preview online, 24 April 2015. doi:10.1038/ijo.2015.66.

Validation of patient health questionnaire (PHQ) for major depression in Chinese outpatients with multiple somatic symptoms: A multicenter cross-sectional study

Background: Despite the high co-morbidity of depressive symptoms in patients with multiple somatic symptoms, the validity of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) has not yet been investigated in Chinese patients with multiple somatic symptoms. Methods: The multicenter cross-sectional study was conducted in ten outpatient departments located in four cities in China. The psychometric properties of the PHQ-9 were examined by confirmative factor analysis (CFA). Criterion validation was undertaken by comparing results with depression diagnoses obtained from the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) as the gold standard. Results: Overall, 491 patients were recruited of whom 237 had multiple somatic symptoms (SOM+ group, PHQ-15 ≥ 10). Cronbach's α of the PHQ-9 was 0.87, 0.87, and 0.90 for SOM+ patients, SOM- patients, and total sample respectively. All items and the total score were moderately correlated. The factor models of PHQ-9 tested by CFA yielded similar diagnostic performance when compared to sum score estimation. Multi-group confirmatory factor analysis based on unidimensional model showed similar psychometric properties over the groups with low and high somatic symptom burden. The optimal cut-off point to detect depression in Chinese outpatients was 10 for PHQ-9 (sensitivity=0.77, specificity=0.76) and 3 for PHQ-2 (sensitivity=0.77, specificity=0.74). Limitations: Potential selection bias and nonresponse bias with applied sampling method. Conclusions: PHQ-9 (cut-off point=10) and PHQ-2 (cut-off point=3) were reliable and valid to detect major depression in Chinese patients with multiple somatic symptoms.

Use of illicit tobacco following introduction of standardised packaging of tobacco products in Australia: results from a national cross-sectional survey

ABSTRACT
Objectives: To assess whether following standardisation of tobacco packaging in Australia, smokers were, as predicted by the tobacco industry, more likely to use illicit tobacco.
Methods: National cross-sectional telephone surveys conducted continuously from April 2012 (6 months before implementation of plain packaging (PP)) to March 2014 (15 months after) using responses from current cigarette smokers (n=8679). Changes between pre-PP, the transition to PP and PP phase were examined using logistic regression models.
Results: Among those whose factory-made cigarettes were purchased in Australia, compared with pre-PP, there were no significant increases in the PP phase in use of: ‘cheap whites’ (<0.1%; OR=0.24, 95% CI 0.04 to 1.56, p=0.134); international brands purchased for 20% or more below the recommended retail price (0.2%; OR=3.49, 95% CI 0.66 to 18.35, p=0.140); or packs purchased from informal sellers (<0.1%; OR=0.24, 95% CI 0.04 to 1.47, p=0.124). The prevalence of any use of unbranded illicit tobacco remained at about 3% (adjusted OR=0.79, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.08, p=0.141).
Conclusions: While unable to quantify the total extent of use of illicit manufactured cigarettes, in this large national survey we found no evidence in Australia of increased use of two categories of manufactured cigarettes likely to be contraband, no increase in purchase from informal sellers and no increased use of unbranded illicit ‘chop-chop’ tobacco.

Negative appraisals of insulin therapy are common among adults with Type 2 diabetes using insulin: results from diabetes MILES - Australia cross-sectional survey

AIM: To identify insulin therapy appraisals among adults with Type 2 diabetes using insulin and how negative appraisals relate to clinical, self-care and psychosocial outcomes. METHODS: Diabetes MILES - Australia 2011 was a national survey of adults with diabetes, focused on behavioural and psychosocial issues. Subgroup analyses were conducted on the responses of 273 adults with Type 2 diabetes using insulin (46% women; mean ± sd age: 59 ± 9 years; diabetes duration: 12 ± 7 years; years using insulin: 4 ± 4). They completed validated measures of insulin therapy appraisals (ITAS), depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7), diabetes distress (PAID) and diabetes-specific self-efficacy (DES-SF). RESULTS: Insulin was perceived to be very important, and its benefits (e.g. improves health) were endorsed by most (82%). Fifty-one per cent believed that taking insulin means their diabetes has become worse; 51% that insulin causes weight gain; 39% that they have 'failed to manage' their diabetes. Those with the greatest and least 'ITAS negative' scores did not differ by diabetes duration or years using insulin, or by average number of insulin injections or blood glucose checks per day. Those with more negative insulin appraisals were significantly younger (Mean Diff. = 5 years, P < 0.001), less satisfied with recent blood glucose levels (P < 0.001, d = 0.63), had reduced diabetes-specific self-efficacy (P < 0.001, d = 0.7), and were more likely to report depressive symptoms, anxiety or diabetes distress (all P < 0.001, d = 0.65-1.1). CONCLUSIONS: Negative insulin therapy appraisals are common among adults with Type 2 diabetes using insulin, and are associated with lower general and diabetes-specific emotional well-being, reduced diabetes-specific self-efficacy and satisfaction with blood glucose.

Muscle strength and areal bone mineral density at the hip in women: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: Muscle strengthening exercises are promoted for building and maintaining a healthy skeleton. We aimed to investigate the relationship between muscle strength and areal bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip in women aged 26-97 years.

METHODS: This cross-sectional study utilises data from 863 women assessed for the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. Measures of hip flexor and abductor strength were made using a hand-held dynamometer (Nicholas Manual Muscle Tester). The maximal measure from three trials on each leg was used for analyses. BMD was measured at the hip using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA; Lunar DPX-L). Total lean mass, body fat mass and appendicular lean mass were determined from whole body DXA scans. Linear regression techniques were used with muscle strength as the independent variable and BMD as the dependent variable. Models were adjusted for age and indices of body composition.

RESULTS: Measures of age-adjusted hip flexor strength and hip abductor strength were positively associated with total hip BMD. For each standard deviation (SD) increase in hip flexor strength, the increase in mean total hip BMD (SD) was 10.4 % (p = 0.009). A similar pattern was observed for hip abductor strength, with an increase in mean total hip BMD of 22.8 % (p = 0.025). All associations between hip muscle strength and total hip BMD were independent of height, but were nullified after adjusting for appendicular lean mass or total lean mass.

CONCLUSIONS: There was a positive association observed between muscle strength and BMD at the hip. However, this association was explained by measures of lean mass.

Excessive daytime sleepiness and falls among older men and women: cross-sectional examination of a population-based sample

Background: Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) has been associated with an increased risk for falls among clinical samples of older adults. However, there is little detailed information among population-representative samples. The current study aimed to assess the relationship between EDS and falls among a cohort of population-based older adults. Methods: This study assessed 367 women aged 60-93years (median 72, interquartile range 65-79) and 451 men aged 60-92years (median 73, interquartile range 66-80) who participated in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study between the years 2001 and 2008. Falls during the prior year were documented via self-report, and for men, falls risk score was obtained using an Elderly Fall Screening Test (EFST). Sleepiness was assessed using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS), and scores of≥10 indicated EDS. Differences among those with and without EDS in regard to falls were tested using logistic regression models. Results: Among women, 50 (13.6 %) individuals reported EDS. Women with EDS were more likely to report a fall, and were more likely to report the fall occurring outside. EDS was similarly associated with an increased risk of a fall following adjustment for use of a walking aid, cases of nocturia and antidepressant medication use (adjusted OR∈=∈2.54, 95 % CI 1.24-5.21). Multivariate modelling revealed antidepressant use (current) as an effect modifier (p∈<∈.001 for the interaction term). After stratifying the data by antidepressant medication use, the association between EDS and falls was sustained following adjustment for nocturia among antidepressant non-users (adjusted OR∈=∈2.63, 95 % CI 1.31-5.30). Among men, 72 (16.0 %) individuals reported EDS. No differences were detected for men with and without EDS in regard to reported falls, and a trend towards significance was noted between EDS and a high falls risk as assessed by the EFST (p∈=∈0.06), however, age explained this relationship (age adjusted OR∈=∈2.20, 95 % CI 1.03-1.10). Conclusions: For women, EDS is independently associated with at least one fall during the previous year, and this is more likely to occur whilst located outside. Amelioration of EDS may assist in improving functional outcomes among these individuals by reducing the risk for falls.

Cross-sectional study of 24-hour urinary electrolyte excretion and associated health outcomes in a convenience sample of Australian primary schoolchildren: the salt and other nutrients in children (SONIC) study protocol

BACKGROUND: Dietary sodium and potassium are involved in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Data exploring the cardiovascular outcomes associated with these electrolytes within Australian children is sparse. Furthermore, an objective measure of sodium and potassium intake within this group is lacking. OBJECTIVE: The primary aim of the Salt and Other Nutrient Intakes in Children ("SONIC") study was to measure sodium and potassium intakes in a sample of primary schoolchildren located in Victoria, Australia, using 24-hour urine collections. Secondary aims were to identify the dietary sources of sodium and potassium, examine the association between these electrolytes and cardiovascular risk factors, and assess children's taste preferences and saltiness perception of manufactured foods. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in a convenience sample of schoolchildren attending primary schools in Victoria, Australia. Participants completed one 24-hour urine collection, which was analyzed for sodium, potassium, and creatinine. Completeness of collections was assessed using collection time, total volume, and urinary creatinine. One 24-hour dietary recall was completed to assess dietary intake. Other data collected included blood pressure, body weight, height, waist and hip circumference. Children were also presented with high and low sodium variants of food products and asked to discriminate salt level and choose their preferred variant. Parents provided demographic information and information on use of discretionary salt. Descriptive statistics will be used to describe sodium and potassium intakes. Linear and logistic regression models with clustered robust standard errors will be used to assess the association between electrolyte intake and health outcomes (blood pressure and body mass index/BMI z-score and waist circumference) and to assess differences in taste preference and discrimination between high and low sodium foods, and correlations between preference, sodium intake, and covariates. RESULTS: A total of 780 children across 43 schools participated. The results from this study are expected at the end of 2015. CONCLUSIONS: This study will provide the first objective measure of sodium and potassium intake in Australian schoolchildren and improve our understanding of the relationship of these electrolytes to cardiovascular risk factors. Furthermore, this study will provide insight into child taste preferences and explore related factors. Given the cardiovascular implications of consuming too much sodium and too little potassium, monitoring of these nutrients during childhood is an important public health initiative.

Neighbourhood environment, sitting time and motorised transport in older adults: a cross-sectional study in Hong Kong

OBJECTIVES: Sitting time is a public health concern. This study examined associations of objectively measured neighbourhood environmental attributes with non-transport sitting time and motorised transport in 484 Hong Kong older adults. Neighbourhood attributes encouraging walking may help older adults replace some sitting time at home and on motorised transport with light-to-moderate-intensity activities such as strolling around the neighbourhood or walking to/from neighbourhood destinations. Thus, we hypothesised environmental attributes found to be related to walking would show associations with non-transport sitting time and motorised transport opposite to those seen for walking. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: Hong Kong, an ultradense urban environment. PARTICIPANTS: 484 ethnic Chinese Hong Kong residents aged 65+ recruited from membership lists of four Hong Kong Elderly Health Centres representing catchment areas of low and high transport-related walkability stratified by socioeconomic status (response rate: 78%). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Attributes of participants' neighbourhood environments were assessed by environmental audits, while non-transport sitting time and motorised transport were ascertained using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Long Form (Chinese version). RESULTS: Daily non-transport sitting minutes were 283 (SD=128) and motorised transport 23 (SD=28). Prevalence of signs of crime/disorder, streetlights, public facilities (toilets and benches) and pedestrian safety were independently negatively related, and sloping streets positively related, to sitting outcomes. Places of worship in the neighbourhood were predictive of more, and prevalence of public transit points of less, non-transport sitting. Associations of either or both sitting outcomes with prevalence of food/grocery stores and presence of parks were moderated by path obstructions and signs of crime/disorder. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that access to specific destinations and relatively low-cost, minimal impact modifications to the urban form, such as street lighting, public toilets, benches and public transit points, could potentially reduce sitting time and associated negative health outcomes in Hong Kong older adults.

Marginal and Interaction Effects in Ordered Response Models

In discrete choice models the marginal effect of a variable of interest that is interacted with another variable differs from the marginal effect of a variable that is not interacted with any variable. The magnitude of the interaction effect is also not equal to the marginal effect of the interaction term. I present consistent estimators of both marginal and interaction effects in ordered response models. This procedure is general and can easily be extended to other discrete choice models.

Cross-sectional averages versus principal components

In spite of the increased use of factor-augmented regressions in recent years, little is known regarding the relative merits of the two main approaches to estimation and inference, namely, the cross-sectional average and principal component estimators. By providing a formal comparison of the approaches, the current paper fills this gap in the literature.

A simple test for cointegration in dependent panels with structural breaks

This paper develops a very simple test for the null hypothesis of no cointegration in panel data. The test is general enough to allow for heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, unit-specific time trends, cross-sectional dependence and unknown structural breaks in both the intercept and slope of the cointegrated regression, which may be located at different dates for different units. The limiting distribution of the test is derived, and is found to be normal and free of nuisance parameters under the null. A small simulation study is also conducted to investigate the small-sample properties of the test. In our empirical application, we provide new evidence concerning the purchasing power parity hypothesis. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2008.

Is there really a unit root in the inflation rate? More evidence from panel data models

Time series unit root evidence suggests that inflation is nonstationary. By contrast, when using more powerful panel unit root tests, Culver and Papell (1997) find that inflation is stationary. In this article, we test the robustness of this result by applying a battery of recent panel unit root tests. The results suggest that the stationarity of inflation holds even after controlling for cross-sectional dependence and structural change.