An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

Review of CARIFORUM-EU EPA - Implicatons for the British and Dutch Caribbean OCT's

The European Commission (EC) recently tabled a Green Paper on the future relations between the European Union (EU) and the Overseas Countries and Territories (OCTs). The document is intended to spark a broad public debate on the opportunity of replacing the current Overseas Association Decision (OAD) of 2001 with an “innovative partnership” for the territories when the present agreement expires on 31 December 2013. The Commission will hold an online consultation covering the issue from 1 July to 17 October 2008. This remains without prejudice to a possible revision of the OAD before the end of 2011, in accordance with its article 62. The need for the launch of the debate arose out of the recognition that the current OCT-EU association is based on an outdated development cooperation logic, whereas the OCTs potential and the challenges they are facing would require an approach that focuses on the strengthening of their competitiveness, the facilitation of regional integration and the reduction of the impact of the factors that contribute to their vulnerability.

Caridean Shrimps Associated with the Slimy Sea Plume (Pseudopterogorigia americana) in Midsummer at Guana Island, British Virgin Islands, West Indies

Fifty-one slimy sea plumes (Pseudopterogorgia americana Gmelin, 1791) were sampled for caridean shrimps at Guana Island, British Virgin Islands, during one week in July 1992. Sam- pling depth ranged from 3-22 m. Nine species were collected: Hippolyte nicholsoni Chace, 1972; Latreutes sp.; Neopontonides chacei Heard, 1986; Perclimenes cf. patae Heard and Spotte, 1991; Periclimenes cf. pauper Holthuis, 1951; Periclimenes sp.; Pseudocoutierea antillensis Chace, 1972; Tozeuma cf. cornutum Milne Edwards, 1881; and Trachycaris rugosa (Bate, 1888). A total of 1,418 specimens (including fragments) was obtained. The number of shrimp species per gorgonian ranged from 1-5; one gorgonian harbored 156 shrimps. The two predominant species, N. chacei and H. nicholsoni, occupy different mean depths (12.6 and 8.2 m, respectively). Sexual dimorphism assessed with Mann-Whitney U-tests was not apparent in the specimens of N. chacei (P > 0.05), but females of H. nicholsoni were significantly larger than males (P < 0.001). Minimum carapace length (CL, the tip of the rostrum to the posterior dorsal margin of the carapace) at which male N. chacei acquire a single appendix masculina spine is 1.25 mm; male H. nicholsoni can acquire a single spine at 0.9 mm CL. Histological sections of male N. chacei showed that shrimp with 0 or 1 spine are least likely to be mature. Female N. chacei can become ovigerous at 1.9 mm CL and female H. nicholsoni at 1.2 mm CL. The taxonomic status of 5 of the 9 species collected is uncertain.

The Pathologic Copepod Phrixocephalus cincinnatus (Copepoda: Pennellidae) in the Eye of Arrowtooth Flounder, Atherestes stomias, and Rex Sole, Glyptocephalus zachirus, from British Columbia

We report Phrixocephalus cincinnatus, a pennellid copepod infecting the eyes of flatfishes, from a single specimen of rex sole, Glyptocephalus zachirus, for the first time. In the typical host, the arrowtooth flounder, Atherestes stomias, the parasite occurred commonly in sampled populations from the Broughton Archipelago in British Columbia, infected primarily the right eye of the flounder, and on only one occasion presented more than two parasites per eye. The copepod attached to the choroid layer and ramified throughout the posterior compartment of the eye, resulting in the disruption of the retina and probably impairing host vision. Inflammation and hyperplasia progressed to necrosis and proliferation of connective tissue, resulting in the total destruction of the eye.

Acoustic Detections of Singing Humpback Whales in Deep Waters Off The British Isles

From October 1996 through September 1998, we used bottom-mounted hydrophone arrays to monitor deep-water areas north and west of the British Isles for songs of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Singing humpbacks were consistently detected between October and March from the Shetland- Faroe Islands south to waters west of the English Channel. Temporal and geographic patterns of song detections, and movements of individually tracked whales, exhibited a southwesterly trend over this period, but with no corresponding northward trend between April and September. These results, together with a review of historical data from this area, suggest that the offshore waters of the British Isles represent a migration corridor for humpbacks, at least some of which summer in Norwegian (and possibly eastern Icelandic) waters. The migratory destination of the detected animals remains unknown, but the limited data suggest that these whales are bound primarily for the West Indies rather than historical breeding areas off the northwestern coast of Africa. Humpbacks detected in British waters after early to mid- March probably do not undertake a full migration to the tropics. These data provide further evidence that singing is not confined to tropical waters in winter, but occurs commonly on migration even in high latitudes.

WOLF CONTROL IN BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA

Up to 1949, the Fish and Game Branch employed personnel, some of whom were temporary, to attempt control of the extremely high wolf pop¬ulations of the central and northern portions of British Columbia. Coyotes were also very numerous in the central and southern regions and had to be considered because of their depredations. The field men were keen and conscientious but their efforts were not co-ordinated. Control areas were severely restricted in size as techniques were not adaptable enough and because of a lack of manpower. Eventually, sheepmen went out of business entirely over wide areas, cattlemen were subjected to huge annual losses, and sportsmen were very concerned. However, stock losses constituted the major complaint and resulted in ranchers demanding action* Two major changes came out of this. First, the bounty on wolves was raised and second, the present Predator Control Division was formed. The administration was convinced that a force of experienced, fully-trained field staff under a single supervision would be far more effective than bounty payments. Unfortunately, bounties were in vogue during that time and forced the necessity of proving the worth of organized controls before any consideration could be given to the elimination of the bounty system.

A corpus of Middle English medical prologues in the Sloane Collection of The British Libray: an introduction to the genre in prose

[ES] Esta tesis trata sobre los prólogos a textos ingleses de carácter médico escritos o copiados en forma de prosa durante el siglo XV. En este trabajo se han contemplado dos objetivos generales: por un lado, la creación de un corpus con todos los prólogos inéditos que cumplen con estos criterios y que se encuentran en la colección de Sloana en la British Library de Londres, según Voigts & Kurtz: Scientific an Medical Writtings in Old and Middle English: An Electronic Reference (2000); y por otro, la presentación de estod prólogos como conjunto, incluyendo: los datos recopilados sobre la codicología de los manuscritos, afiliación de los textos, sus fuentes y el dialecto utilizado. Asimismo, como parte de esta presentación, se aporta un análisis original de la estructura, forma y contenido de los materiales seleccionados para el estudio. El propósito de esta tesis es llenar un hueco en la literatura académica acerca de los prólogos a textos médicos escritos en inglés medieval tardío, tal y como lo señala Voigts (1982:54)

Heave of large excavations in clay: modelling and analysis of two british case-histories

ABSTRACT Il presente lavoro vuole introdurre la problematica del rigonfiamento del terreno a seguito di grandi scavi in argilla. Il sollevamento del terreno dopo lo scavo può passare inosservato ma sono numerosi i casi in cui il rigonfiamento dura per molti anni e addirittura decenni, Shell Centre, London, Lion Yard, Cambridge, Bell Common, London, ecc. Questo rigonfiamento il più delle volte è impedito dalla presenza di fondazioni, si genera quindi una pressione distribuita che se non considerata in fase di progetto può portare alla fessurazione della fondazione stessa. L’anima del progetto è la modellazione e l’analisi del rigonfiamento di grandi scavi in argilla, confrontando poi i risultati con i dati reali disponibili in letteratura. L’idea del progetto nasce dalla difficoltà di ottenere stime e previsioni attendibili del rigonfiamento a seguito di grandi scavi in argilla sovraconsolidata. Inizialmente ho esaminato la teoria e i fattori che influenzano il grado e la velocità del rigonfiamento, quali la rigidezza, permeabilità, fessurazione, struttura del suolo, etc. In seguito ho affrontato lo studio del comportamento rigonfiante di argille sovraconsolidate a seguito di scarico tensionale (scavi), si è evidenziata l’importanza di differenziare il rigonfiamento primario e il rigonfiamento secondario dovuto al fenomeno del creep. Il tema centrale del progetto è l’analisi numerica tramite Flac di due grandi scavi in argilla, Lion Yard, Cambridge, e, Bell Common, London. Attraverso una dettagliata analisi parametrica sono riuscito a trovare i migliori parametri che modellano il comportamento reale nei due casi in esame, in questo modo è possibile arrivare a stime e previsioni attendibili del fenomeno rigonfiante del terreno a seguito di grandi scavi. Gli scavi modellati Lion Yard e Bell Common sono rispettivamente in Gault Clay e London Clay, grazie a famosi recenti articoli scientifici sono riuscito a evidenziare la principali propietà che diversificano i due terreni in esame, tali propietà sono estremamente differenti dalle normali caratteristiche considerate per la progettazione in presenza di terreno argilloso; sono così riuscito a implementare i migliori parametri per descrivere il comportamento dei due terreni nei diversi modelli. Ho inoltre studiato l’interazione terreno-struttura, la pressione esercitata dal rigonfiamento del terreno è strettamente funzione delle caratteristiche di connesione tra fondazione superficiale e muro di sostegno, tale pressione non deve essere ignorata in fase progettuale poichè può raggiungere importanti valori. Nello scavo di Lion Yard, considerando la presenza delle fondazioni profonde ho evidenziato il fatto che il rigonfiamento crea una forza distribuita di taglio tra i pali di fondazione ed il terreno, anche tale sollecitazione dovrebbe essere considerata ai fini della progettazione. La problematica non si ferma solo sull’interazione terreno-fondazioni, infatti durante gli scavi di importanti fondazioni londinesi lo scarico tensionale ha creato uno spostamento significativo positivo verso la superfice di tratti di tunnel della metropolita, questo fenomeno può creare seri problemi di sicurezza nella rete dei trasporti pubblici. Infine sono stati messi a confronto i risultati del programma Flac con quelli di metodi semplificati, ho trovato che utilizzando il metodo iterativo di O’Brien i risultati sono simili alla realtà e il tempo di calcolo è molto inferiore di quello richiesto utilizzando Flac, 2-3 giorni. In conclusione posso affermare che grazie ad una dettagliata analisi parametrica è stato possibile stimare il rigonfiamento del terreno, argilla sovraconsolidata, nei due casi analizzati.