The 1999 Brazilian financial crisis: how to create a financial crisis by trying to avoid one

This paper attempts to understand the Brazilian financial crisis mainly from an ‘endogenous-failure’ perspective. It argues that the general mechanisms that led to this financial crisis were in essence endogenous to the workings of an economy facing a sudden liberalisation, a surge in capital inflows, ineffective regulation and weak governance. This paper will also argue that within this general framework, there is a very specific ‘Minskyian’ feature to the Brazilian crisis, which made it different from other financial crises both in Latin America and in East Asia: how a particularly radical monetary policy led to a major financial fragility in the financial sector and State finances, and to an unmanageable Ponzi finance in the accounts of the Federal Government.

A note on financial regulation and the brazilian response to the 2008‐09 financial crisis

Brazil was frequently criticized for its interventionist and heavy financial regulation up until the 2008‐09 world financial crisis.  According to the neo‐liberal or pro‐market view that predominated in academic and financial circles during the early 2000s, economic development came together with financial deepening, which in its turn could only be achieved through financial liberalization and deregulation. The currency crises of the 1990s notwithstanding, by the mid‐2000s Brazil’s segmented financial market and its restrictive reserve and capital requirements were seen as a symbol of inefficiency and backwardness by most financial specialists.  To the luck of the Brazilian population, most of the advices of such specialists were ignored by the Brazilian authorities, so that, when the 2008 financial crisis hit the world economy, Brazil still had powerful and efficient instruments to deal with the problem.  The objective of this note is to present the mains aspects of the Brazilian financial regulation and how they helped the economy to deal with the consequences of 2008‐09 financial meltdown.

A note on Brazilian financial regulation and governance

The question posed by Theme 4 of this workshop is indeed a very broad one and would demand a thorough research on the topics involved. I am afraid I did not have the proper time to think it over and I would not be able to provide a wide ranging answer to this question. Thus, I will be selective and I will present the following issues that need to be addressed to support Brazilian development: i) competition among banks; ii) high rate of interest on liquidity; iii) approval by the Congress of a Complementary Law to regulate the financial sector as required by the 1988 Brazilian Constitution; iv) exploitation of workers through the governance of the Job Time Guarantee Fund (FGTS) and iv) state-owned versus government owned enterprises.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

Coordination in brazilian pharmaceutical supply chains

Supply chain coordination (SCC) can be a challenge for many organizations as different firms in the same chain has different expectations and interdependencies (Arshinder & Deshmukh, 2008). Lack of SCC can result in the bullwhip effect and poor performance for a firm and its partners. By investigating the phenomenon in the Brazilian pharmaceutical supply chain using a qualitative research, this paper aims to understand the main issues that avoid a better integrated chain. Results of 21 interviews suggested that the lack of coordination in this environment was influenced by the network design and the history of the sector in Brazil, as well as scarce resources

Applying supply chain management models in the banking industry: a brazilian case analysis

The study presents the results and recommendations deriving from the application of two supply chain management analysis models as proposed by the Supply Chain Council (SCOR, version 10.0) and by Lambert (1997, Framework for Supply Chain Management) on the logistics of cash transfers in Brazil. Cash transfers consist of the transportation of notes to and from each node of the complex network formed by the bank branches, ATMs, armored transportation providers, the government custodian, Brazilian Central Bank and financial institutions. Although the logistic to sustain these operations is so wide-ranged (country-size), complex and subject to a lot of financial regulations and security procedures, it has been detected that it was probably not fully integrated. Through the use of a primary and a secondary data research and analysis, using the above mentioned models, the study ends up with propositions to strongly improve the operations efficiency

Brazilian competitiveness on international trade

In recent years, Brazil benefited from foreign trade expansion and its exports of goods grew by 16.5%. If this strong growth trend keeps up for the next years, today’s bottlenecks may have a negative impact on the competitiveness of the country’s products in the global market. This is especially critical for one of the main “green fuels” producers in a scenario where the demand for this energy source grows due to rising oil prices and environmental concerns. Based on a survey that collected data from 250 Brazilian exporters, this study focuses on the constraints that reduce the competitiveness of exports. This study differs from previous ones in that it considers the professionals directly involved with export activities and evaluates different aspects, including logistics, operations, taxes, legal, bureaucratic and informational ones. Results show that the most important constraints strongly affect costs and delivery reliability

Exclusivity contracts and competition : the case of the Brazilian fuels market

Exclusivity contracts can help stations by providing brand-value that allows them to obtain higher profits, relative to unbranded retailers. However, branded retailers may have a stronger negative effect over its competitors’ profits. It is not clear which one of these two effects dominates (brand-value vs competition effect). Therefore, the impact of exclusivity over the number of participants in the downstream market is not determined. In this paper, I empirically study the effects of exclusivity agreements on competition in the Brazilian gasoline sector. In order to do so, I estimate an entry model of endogenous product-type choices using data of retailers’ locations and contract choices along with data from the 2010 Brazilian Census. I use my estimates to simulate entry decisions under two counterfactual scenarios: i) mandatory exclusivity and ii) no exclusivity.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its components in Brazilian women with polycystic ovary syndrome

SOARES, Elvira Maria Mafaldo et al. Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its components in Brazilian women with polycystic ovary syndrome. Fertility and Sterility, v.89, n.3, p.649-655, mar. 2008

Dream characteristics in a Brazilian sample: an online survey focusing on lucid dreaming

During sleep, humans experience the offline images and sensations that we call dreams, which are typically emotional and lacking in rational judgment of their bizarreness. However, during lucid dreaming (LD), subjects know that they are dreaming, and may control oneiric content. Dreaming and LD features have been studied in North Americans, Europeans and Asians, but not among Brazilians, the largest population in Latin America. Here we investigated dreams and LD characteristics in a Brazilian sample (n=3,427; median age=25 years) through an online survey. The subjects reported recalling dreams at least once a week (76%), and that dreams typically depicted actions (93%), known people (92%), sounds/voices (78%), and colored images (76%). The oneiric content was associated with plans for the upcoming days (37%), memories of the previous day (13%), or unrelated to the dreamer (30%). Nightmares usually depicted anxiety/fear (65%), being stalked (48%), or other unpleasant sensations(47%). These data corroborate Freudian notion of day residue in dreams, and suggest that dreams and nightmares are simulations of life situations that are related to our psychobiological integrity. Regarding LD, we observed that 77% of the subjects experienced LD at least once in life (44% up to 10 episodes ever), and for 48% LD subjectively lasted less than 1 min. LD frequency correlated weakly with dream recall frequency (r =0.20,p< 0.01), and LD control was rare (29%). LD occurrence was facilitated when subjects did not need to wake up early (38%), a situation that increases rapid eye movement sleep (REMS) duration, or when subjects were under stress (30%), which increases REMS transitions into waking. These results indicate that LD is relatively ubiquitous but rare, unstable, difficult to control, and facilitated by increases in REMS duration and transitions to wake state. Together with LD incidence in USA, Europe and Asia, our data from Latin America strengthen the notion that LD is a general phenomenon of the human species.

Cooperação e competição entre políticas no Brasil: os cursos da governabilidade no presidencialismo da catalização

Public policies have been studied in the various fields of humanities and social sciences, from different theoretical and technical aspects. However, there is still a lack of studies that incorporate the dimension that encompasses the political action and its interference in such actions, also recognizing the importance of the institutional setting of the Brazilian presidential model in implementing these policies. This fragmented and multiparty system has led to power heterogeneous sets of political parties. Thus, the ministerial offices, more than assisting the President´s government project, manage particularized agendas, which are party biased and have the influence of interest groups in hegemonic themes addressed by government agencies. When these agendas operate in sectoral and specialized policies, the friction level is apparently low. However, when this occurs in intersectoral actions, such as in regional development, there is evidence of strong signs of competition among government agencies, which in theory, should operate in an integrated manner. Although this is not a specific feature of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva´s government- the period to be studied- there was similar behavior in Fernando Henrique Cardoso´s presidency, one realizes that the expansion of coalition on behalf of governance is increasingly interfering in the outcome of intersectoral public policies, due to these multiple arguments in action. In order to understand these processes, this study focused on the Sustainable and Integrated Development Programme for Differentiated Meso-Regions (PROMESO), part of the National Policy for Regional Development (NPRD). The program provides interface with various government agencies and their public policies in a clear intersectoral design. The research sought to identify and analyze the relationships between government agencies and their programs with interest groups, whether political parties or other segments of civil society, highlighting the logic of favoritism, which poses in second place the integration of actions in the intersectoral policies. Therefore, besides the theoretical debate that incorporates several categories of political science, public administration, public policy, geography and economics, the study focused on secondary sources, using different government agencies databases in order to raise information. It was observed that the interference of partisan politics has been disastrous for some public policies. Thus, the research confirms that cooperative character is fragile within government agencies, often limited to official documents, and that there is indeed, a striking feature of competition, especially when it comes to transversalized policies

Exclusão social e projetos habitacionais. Um estudo sobre conjuntos habitacionais, segregação e exclusão social em Natal/RN

In Natal s urban growth process it is given that the performance period of the National Housing Bank (BNH, 1964-1986) was marked by the intense expansion of the urban grid and configuration of outskirts, through the construction of social housing developments. Implanted in segregated areas of the existing formal city, the population installed in these complexes was also excluded from their rights, considering that the housing defines itself not only by the physical dwelling, but also by its access to urban infrastructure, facilities, services, and others. From this reality and the verification of the city s exclusion and sociospatial segregation processes, we aimed to quantitatively demonstrate levels of social exclusion in Natal, based on the methodology developed by Sposati (2000) and adapted by Genovez (2002), which relates IBGE s (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) database underlying variables such as income, schooling and dwelling s quality. The research unveiled some spatial patterns promoted by the social housings: in these areas islands were developed with higher indicators than surrounding areas, revealing internal hierarchies in the city s outskirts

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)