Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000

Genuine Savings (GS), also known as ‘net adjusted savings’, is a composite indicator of the sustainability of economic development. Genuine Savings reflects year-on-year changes in the total wealth or capital of a country, including net investment in produced capita, investment in human capital, depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution. A negative Genuine Savings rate suggests that the stock of national wealth is declining and that future utility must be less than current utility, indicating that economic development is non-sustainable (Hamilton and Clemens, 1999). We make use of data over a 150 year period to examine the relationship between Genuine Savings and a number of indicators of well-being over time, and compare the relative changes in human, produced, and components of natural capital over the period. Overall, we find that the magnitude of genuine savings is positively related to changes in future consumption, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. However, the relationships between genuine savings and infant mortality or average heights are less clear.

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Predicting the past: Understanding the causes of bank distress in the Netherlands in the 1920s

Why do some banks fail in financial crises while others survive? This article answers this question by analysing the effect of the Dutch financial crisis of the 1920s on 142 banks, of which 33 failed. We find that choices of balance sheet composition and product market strategy made in the lead-up to the crisis had a significant impact on banks’ subsequent chances of experiencing distress. We document that high-risk banks – those operating highly-leveraged portfolios and attracting large quantities of deposits – were more likely to fail. Branching and international activities also increased banks’ default probabilities. We measure the effects of board interlocks, which have been characterized in the extant literature as contributing to the Dutch crisis. We find that boards mattered: failing banks had smaller boards, shared directors with smaller and very profitable banks and had a lower concentration of interlocking directorates in non-financial firms.

Development of a planar waveguide microarray for the monitoring and early detection of five harmful algal toxins in water and cultures

A novel multiplex microarray has been developed for the detection of five groups of harmful algal and cyanobacterial toxins found in marine, brackish, and freshwater environments including domoic acid (DA), okadaic acid (OA, and analogues), saxitoxin (STX, and analogues), cylindrospermopsin (CYN) and microcystins (MC, and analogues). The sensitivity and specificity were determined and feasibility to be used as a screening tool investigated. Results for algal/cyanobacterial cultures (n = 12) and seawater samples (n = 33) were compared to conventional analytical methods, such as high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Detection limits for the 15 min assay were 0.37, 0.44, 0.05, 0.08, and 0.40 ng/mL for DA, OA, STX, CYN, and MC, respectively. The correlation of data obtained from the microarray compared to conventional analysis for the 12 cultures was r(2) = 0.83. Analysis of seawater samples showed that 82, 82, 70, 82, and 12% of samples were positive (>IC20) compared to 67, 55, 36, 0, and 0% for DA, OA, STX, CYN, and MC, respectively, for conventional analytical methods. The discrepancies in results can be attributed to the enhanced sensitivity and cross-reactivity profiles of the antibodies in the MBio microarray. The feasibility of the microarray as a rapid, easy to use, and highly sensitive screening tool has been illustrated for the five-plex detection of biotoxins. The research demonstrates an early warning screening assay to support national monitoring agencies by providing a faster and more accurate means of identifying and quantifying harmful toxins in water samples.

When terror hits home: Identity Fused Americans who saw Boston bombing victims as “family” provided aid

When tragedy strikes a group, only some group members characteristically rush to the aid of the victims. What motivates the altruism of these exceptional individuals? Here, we provide one set of answers based on data collected before and shortly after the 15 April 2013, Boston Marathon bombings. The results of three studies indicated that Americans who were strongly “fused” with their country were especially inclined to provide various forms of support to the bombing victims. Moreover, the degree to which participants reported perceiving fellow Americans as psychological kin statistically mediated links between fusion and pro-group outcomes. Together, these findings shed new light on relationships between personal and group identity, cognitive representations of group members, and personally costly, pro-group actions.

Low-Power Process-Variation Tolerant Arithmetic Units Using Input-Based Elastic Clocking

In this paper we propose a design methodology for low-power high-performance, process-variation tolerant architecture for arithmetic units. The novelty of our approach lies in the fact that possible delay failures due to process variations and/or voltage scaling are predicted in advance and addressed by employing an elastic clocking technique. The prediction mechanism exploits the dependence of delay of arithmetic units upon input data patterns and identifies specific inputs that activate the critical path. Under iso-yield conditions, the proposed design operates at a lower scaled down Vdd without any performance degradation, while it ensures a superlative yield under a design style employing nominal supply and transistor threshold voltage. Simulation results show power savings of upto 29%, energy per computation savings of upto 25.5% and yield enhancement of upto 11.1% compared to the conventional adders and multipliers implemented in the 70nm BPTM technology. We incorporated the proposed modules in the execution unit of a five stage DLX pipeline to measure performance using SPEC2000 benchmarks [9]. Maximum area and throughput penalty obtained were 10% and 3% respectively.

Regional variation in five indicators of health in early childhood: a cohort study

Background Persistent and marked differences in adult morbidity and mortality between regions in the United Kingdom (UK) are often referred to as the north-south gradient (or divide) and the Scottish effect, and are only partly explained by adult levels of socioeconomic status (SES) or risk factors which suggests variation arising earlier in life. The aim of the current study was to examine regional variations in five health indicators in children in England and Scotland at birth and three years of age.
Methods Respondents were 10,500 biological Caucasian mothers of singleton children recruited to the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Outcome variables were: gestational age and weight at birth, and height, body mass index (BMI), and externalising behaviour at age three. Region/Country was categorised as: South (reference), Midlands, North, and Scotland. Respondents provided information on child, maternal, household, and socioeconomic characteristics when the cohort infant/child was aged nine months and again when aged three years. 
Results There were no significant regional variations for gestational age or birthweight. However, at age three there was a north-south gradient for externalising behaviour and a north-south divide in BMI which attenuated on adjustment. However, a north-south divide in height was not fully explained by the adjusted model. There was also evidence of a ‘Midlands effect’, with increased likelihoods of shorter stature and behaviour problems. Results showed a Scottish effect for height and BMI in the unadjusted models, and height in the adjusted model. However, Scottish children were less likely to show behaviour problems in crude and adjusted models. 
Conclusions Findings indicated no marked regional differences in children at birth, but by age three some regional health differences were evident, and though not distinct north-south gradients or Scottish effects, are evidence of health inequalities appearing at an early age and dependent on geographic location.

Multi-detection method for five common microalgal toxins based on the use of microspheres coupled to a flow-cytometry system

Freshwater and brackish microalgal toxins, such as microcystins, cylindrospermopsins, paralytic toxins, anatoxins or other neurotoxins are produced during the overgrowth of certain phytoplankton and benthic cyanobacteria, which includes either prokaryotic or eukaryotic microalgae. Although, further studies are necessary to define the biological role of these toxins, at least some of them are known to be poisonous to humans and wildlife due to their occurrence in these aquatic systems. The World Health Organization (WHO) has established as provisional recommended limit 1 μg of microcystin-LR per liter of drinking water. In this work we present a microsphere-based multi-detection method for five classes of freshwater and brackish toxins: microcystin-LR (MC-LR), cylindrospermopsin (CYN), anatoxin-a (ANA-a), saxitoxin (STX) and domoic acid (DA). Five inhibition assays were developed using different binding proteins and microsphere classes coupled to a flow-cytometry Luminex system. Then, assays were combined in one method for the simultaneous detection of the toxins. The IC₅₀'s using this method were 1.9 ± 0.1 μg L⁻¹ MC-LR, 1.3 ± 0.1 μg L⁻¹ CYN, 61 ± 4 μg L⁻¹ ANA-a, 5.4 ± 0.4 μg L⁻¹ STX and 4.9 ± 0.9 μg L⁻¹ DA. Lyophilized cyanobacterial culture samples were extracted using a simple procedure and analyzed by the Luminex method and by UPLC–IT-TOF-MS. Similar quantification was obtained by both methods for all toxins except for ANA-a, whereby the estimated content was lower when using UPLC–IT-TOF-MS. Therefore, this newly developed multiplexed detection method provides a rapid, simple, semi-quantitative screening tool for the simultaneous detection of five environmentally important freshwater and brackish toxins, in buffer and cyanobacterial extracts.

Forgoing primacy: Damaging democratic policing in the West Bank

Since the Oslo Accords were signed between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in September 1993, the international community has supported civil policing programmes. It has done so as part of its development commitments to Palestinian state-building. Such programmes were, until the outbreak of the second Intifada in 2000, largely regarded as successful in terms of supporting the establishment of a Palestinian civil police (PCP). Such programmes were essentially Western imported models which loosely mixed community and public order policing approaches. With re-engagement in the Palestinian security sector (PSS) in the West Bank in 2007, the international community has once again sought to play a major role in PSS reform. This role includes supporting rehabilitation and retraining of the PCP as a principal institution of state-building. Such activities alongside the so-called transformation efforts within the wider realm of the PSS have re-established as their goal law and order. Within the transformation agenda, there are inherent demands with respect to Israel and the Palestinian National Authority's security and counterterrorism agendas. This analysis examines these activities, and accompanying political intent to contend that such approaches are undermining principles of democratic policing including civil police primacy (CPP). CPP reinforces police universality and means supporting rule of law by putting security under governmental control with proper mechanisms of accountability. This article argues that support to the security sector in the West Bank has increasingly only paid lip service or sought to subvert normative approaches to democratic policing.

Emotional insecurity in the family and community and youth delinquency in Northern Ireland: A person-oriented analysis across five-waves

Background: Over one billion children are exposed worldwide to political violence and armed conflict. Currently, conclusions about bases for adjustment problems are qualified by limited longitudinal research from a process-oriented, social-ecological perspective. In this study, we examined a theoretically-based model for the impact of multiple levels of the social ecology (family, community) on adolescent delinquency. Specifically, this study explored the impact of children’s emotional insecurity about both the family and community on youth delinquency in Northern Ireland. Methods: In the context of a five-wave longitudinal research design, participants included 999 mother-child dyads in Belfast (482 boys, 517 girls), drawn from socially-deprived, ethnically-homogenous areas that had experienced political violence. Youth ranged in age from 10 to 20 and were 12.18 (SD = 1.82) years old on average at Time 1. Findings: The longitudinal analyses were conducted in hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), allowing for the modeling of inter-individual differences in intra-individual change. Intra-individual trajectories of emotional insecurity about the family related to children’s delinquency. Greater insecurity about the community worsened the impact of family conflict on youth’s insecurity about the family, consistent with the notion that youth’s insecurity about the community sensitizes them to exposure to family conflict in the home. Conclusions: The results suggest that ameliorating children’s insecurity about family and community in contexts of political violence is an important goal toward improving adolescents’ well-being, including reduced risk for delinquency.