945 resultados para Bayesian statistic
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Purpose: Intervertebral cervical disc herniation (CDH) is a relatively common disorder that can coexist with degenerative changes to worsen cervicogenic myelopathy. Despite the frequent disc abnormalities found in asymptomatic populations, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is considered excellent at detecting cervical spine myelopathy (CSM) associated with disc abnormality. The objective of this study was to investigate the intra- and inter-observer reliability of MRI detection of CSM in subjects who also had co-existing intervertebral disc abnormalities. Materials and methods: Seven experienced radiologists reviewed twice the MRI of 10 patients with clinically and/or imaging determined myelopathy. MRI assessment was performed individually, with and without operational guidelines. A Fleiss Kappa statistic was used to evaluate the intra- and inter-observer agreement. Results: The study found high intra-observer percent agreement but relatively low Kappa values on selected variables. Inter-observer reliability was also low and neither observation was improved with operational guidelines. We believe that those low values may be associated with the base rate problem of Kappa. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study demonstrated high intra-observer percent agreement in MR examination for intervertebral disc abnormalities in patients with underlying cervical myelopathy, but differing levels of intra- and inter-observer Kappa agreement among seven radiologists. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Background and Aim: There were strong evidences that nitric oxide has capital importance in the progressive vasodilatation associated with varied circulatory shock forms, including systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), in patients undergoing cardiac surgeries for cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). If CPB procedures, per se, are the inciting stimulus for inflammation, plasma nitrate/nitrite (NOx) excretion would be expected to be higher in these patients rather than in patients operated without CPB. In consequence, we hypothesized that increased levels of NOx would be predictive for vasoplegic syndrome. Methods: Thirty patients were assigned to three groups: Group 1-coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) roller pump CPB; Group 2-CABG centrifugal vortex pump CPB; and Group 3-heart valve surgery roller pump CPB. Sampling of venous blood for chemiluminescence plasma NOx dosage was achieved at the following time points: (1) before anesthesia induction; (2) after anesthesia induction; (3) before heparin infusion; (4) after heparin infusion; (5) CPB-30 minutes; (6) CPB-60 minutes; (7) before protamine infusion; (8) after protamine infusion; and (9) on return to the recovery area. Results: There were no intergroup differences regarding age and anesthetic regimen, and the number of arteries grafted was not different between the CABG groups. There were no NOx statistic differences, neither among the three groups of patients or among the surgery time. In addition, there was no correlation among NOx, lactate, and hemoglobin. Conclusions: Considering the inflammatory process intrinsic to CPB, this study reinforces the idea that plasma NOx is not useful as a biomarker of inflammatory response onset, which may or may not lead to SIRS and/or vasoplegic syndrome.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There are 2 main hypotheses concerning the cause of mirror movements (MM) in Kallmann syndrome (KS): abnormal development of the primary motor system, involving the ipsilateral corticospinal tract, and lack of contralateral motor cortex inhibitory mechanisms, mainly through the corpus callosum. The purpose of our study was to determine white and gray matter volume changes in a KS population by using optimized voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and to investigate the relationship between the abnormalities and the presence of MM, addressing the 2 mentioned hypotheses. MATERIALS AND METHODS: T1-weighted volumetric images from 21 patients with KS and 16 matched control subjects were analyzed with optimized VBM. Images were segmented and spatially normalized, and these deformation parameters were then applied to the original images before the second segmentation. Patients were divided into groups with and without MM, and a t test statistic was then applied on a voxel-by-voxel basis between the groups and controls to evaluate significant differences. RESULTS: When considering our hypothesis a priori, we found that 2 areas of increased gray matter volume, in the left primary motor and sensorimotor cortex, were demonstrated only in patients with MM, when compared with healthy controls. Regarding white matter alterations, no areas of altered volume involving the corpus callosum or the projection of the corticospinal tract were demonstrated. CONCLUSION: The VBM study did not show significant white matter changes in patients with KS but showed gray matter alterations in keeping with a hypertrophic response to a deficient pyramidal decussation in patients with MM. In addition, gray matter alterations were observed in patients without MM, which can represent more complex mechanisms determining the presence or absence of this symptom.
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Hantaviruses are rodent-borne Bunyaviruses that infect the Arvicolinae, Murinae, and Sigmodontinae subfamilies of Muridae. The rate of molecular evolution in the hantaviruses has been previously estimated at approximately 10(-7) nucleotide substitutions per site, per year (substitutions/site/year), based on the assumption of codivergence and hence shared divergence times with their rodent hosts. If substantiated, this would make the hantaviruses among the slowest evolving of all RNA viruses. However, as hantaviruses replicate with an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, with error rates in the region of one mutation per genome replication, this low rate of nucleotide substitution is anomalous. Here, we use a Bayesian coalescent approach to estimate the rate of nucleotide substitution from serially sampled gene sequence data for hantaviruses known to infect each of the 3 rodent subfamilies: Araraquara virus ( Sigmodontinae), Dobrava virus ( Murinae), Puumala virus ( Arvicolinae), and Tula virus ( Arvicolinae). Our results reveal that hantaviruses exhibit shortterm substitution rates of 10(-2) to 10(-4) substitutions/site/year and so are within the range exhibited by other RNA viruses. The disparity between this substitution rate and that estimated assuming rodent-hantavirus codivergence suggests that the codivergence hypothesis may need to be reevaluated.
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This work aims to compare different nonlinear functions for describing the growth curves of Nelore females. The growth curve parameters, their (co) variance components, and environmental and genetic effects were estimated jointly through a Bayesian hierarchical model. In the first stage of the hierarchy, 4 nonlinear functions were compared: Brody, Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and logistic. The analyses were carried out using 3 different data sets to check goodness of fit while having animals with few records. Three different assumptions about SD of fitting errors were considered: constancy throughout the trajectory, linear increasing until 3 yr of age and constancy thereafter, and variation following the nonlinear function applied in the first stage of the hierarchy. Comparisons of the overall goodness of fit were based on Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the deviance information criterion. Goodness of fit at different points of the growth curve was compared applying the Gelfand`s check function. The posterior means of adult BW ranged from 531.78 to 586.89 kg. Greater estimates of adult BW were observed when the fitting error variance was considered constant along the trajectory. The models were not suitable to describe the SD of fitting errors at the beginning of the growth curve. All functions provided less accurate predictions at the beginning of growth, and predictions were more accurate after 48 mo of age. The prediction of adult BW using nonlinear functions can be accurate when growth curve parameters and their (co) variance components are estimated jointly. The hierarchical model used in the present study can be applied to the prediction of mature BW in herds in which a portion of the animals are culled before adult age. Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, and Brody functions were adequate to establish mean growth patterns and to predict the adult BW of Nelore females. The Brody model was more accurate in predicting the birth weight of these animals and presented the best overall goodness of fit.
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It is well accepted that the Americas were the last continents reached by modern humans, most likely through Beringia. However, the precise time and mode of the colonization of the New World remain hotly disputed issues. Native American populations exhibit almost exclusively five mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplogroups (A-D and X). Haplogroups A-D are also frequent in Asia, suggesting a northeastern Asian origin of these lineages. However, the differential pattern of distribution and frequency of haplogroup X led some to suggest that it may represent an independent migration to the Americas. Here we show, by using 86 complete mitochondrial genomes, that all Native American haplogroups, including haplogroup X, were part of a single founding population, thereby refuting multiple-migration models. A detailed demographic history of the mtDNA sequences estimated with a Bayesian coalescent method indicates a complex model for the peopling of the Americas, in which the initial differentiation from Asian populations ended with a moderate bottleneck in Beringia during the last glacial maximum (LGM), around similar to 23,000 to similar to 19,000 years ago. Toward the end of the LGM, a strong population expansion started similar to 18,000 and finished similar to 15,000 years ago. These results support a pre-Clovis occupation of the New World, suggesting a rapid settlement of the continent along a Pacific coastal route.
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The aim of this study was to compare the intra-and inter-rater reliability of pressure pain threshold (PPT) and manual palpation (MP) of orofacial structures in symptomatic and symptom-free children for temporomandibular disorders (TMD). Fourteen children reporting pain in masticatory muscles or the temporomandibular joint and 16 symptom-free children were randomly assessed on three different occasions: by rater-1 in the first and third session and by rater-2 in the second session. The trained raters applied algometry and MP as recommended by the Research Diagnostic Criteria for TMD. Intraclass correlation coefficients and the Kappa statistic were used to assess the levels of reliability of PPT and MP, respectively. Excellent intra-and inter-rater reliability levels were observed for PPT values at most of the examined sites for symptom-free children and excellent and moderate reliability levels for children reporting pain. For MP, moderate and poor intra-rater and inter-rater reliability levels were observed for most sites in both groups. Algometry showed higher reliability levels for both groups of children and is recommended for pain assessment in children in association with MP. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Cannabis sativa, the most widely used illicit drug, has profound effects on levels of anxiety in animals and humans. Although recent studies have helped provide a better understanding of the neurofunctional correlates of these effects, indicating the involvement of the amygdala and cingulate cortex, their reciprocal influence is still mostly unknown. In this study dynamic causal modelling (DCM) and Bayesian model selection (BMS) were used to explore the effects of pure compounds of C. sativa [600 mg of cannabidiol (CBD) and 10 mg Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (Delta(9)-THC)] on prefrontal-subcortical effective connectivity in 15 healthy subjects who underwent a double-blind randomized, placebo-controlled fMRI paradigm while viewing faces which elicited different levels of anxiety. In the placebo condition, BMS identified a model with driving inputs entering via the anterior cingulate and forward intrinsic connectivity between the amygdala and the anterior cingulate as the best fit. CBD but not Delta(9)-THC disrupted forward connectivity between these regions during the neural response to fearful faces. This is the first study to show that the disruption of prefrontal-subocrtical connectivity by CBD may represent neurophysiological correlates of its anxiolytic properties.
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This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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Item noise models of recognition assert that interference at retrieval is generated by the words from the study list. Context noise models of recognition assert that interference at retrieval is generated by the contexts in which the test word has appeared. The authors introduce the bind cue decide model of episodic memory, a Bayesian context noise model, and demonstrate how it can account for data from the item noise and dual-processing approaches to recognition memory. From the item noise perspective, list strength and list length effects, the mirror effect for word frequency and concreteness, and the effects of the similarity of other words in a list are considered. From the dual-processing perspective, process dissociation data on the effects of length. temporal separation of lists, strength, and diagnosticity of context are examined. The authors conclude that the context noise approach to recognition is a viable alternative to existing approaches. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved)
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We derive optimal N-photon two-mode input states for interferometric phase measurements. Under canonical measurements the phase variance scales as N-2 for these states, as compared to N-1 or N-1/2 for states considered bq previous authors. We prove, that it is not possible to realize the canonical measurement by counting photons in the outputs of the interferometer, even if an adjustable auxiliary phase shift is allowed in the interferometer. However. we introduce a feedback algorithm based on Bayesian inference to control this auxiliary phase shift. This makes the measurement close to a canonical one, with a phase variance scaling slightly above N-2. With no feedback, the best result (given that the phase to be measured is completely unknown) is a scaling of N-1. For optimal input states having up to four photons, our feedback scheme is the best possible one, but for higher photon numbers more complicated schemes perform marginally better.
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Much progress has been made on inferring population history from molecular data. However, complex demographic scenarios have been considered rarely or have proved intractable. The serial introduction of the South-Central American cane Load Bufo marinas in various Caribbean and Pacific islands involves four major phases: a possible genetic admixture during the first introduction, a bottleneck associated with founding, a transitory, population boom, and finally, a demographic stabilization. A large amount of historical and demographic information is available for those introductions and can be combined profitably with molecular data. We used a Bayesian approach to combine this information With microsatellite (10 loci) and enzyme (22 loci) data and used a rejection algorithm to simultaneously estimate the demographic parameters describing the four major phases of the introduction history,. The general historical trends supported by microsatellites and enzymes were similar. However, there was a stronger support for a larger bottleneck at introductions for microsatellites than enzymes and for a more balanced genetic admixture for enzymes than for microsatellites. Verb, little information was obtained from either marker about the transitory population boom observed after each introduction. Possible explanations for differences in resolution of demographic events and discrepancies between results obtained with microsatellites and enzymes were explored. Limits Of Our model and method for the analysis of nonequilibrium populations were discussed.
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Motivation: This paper introduces the software EMMIX-GENE that has been developed for the specific purpose of a model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data, in particular, of tissue samples on a very large number of genes. The latter is a nonstandard problem in parametric cluster analysis because the dimension of the feature space (the number of genes) is typically much greater than the number of tissues. A feasible approach is provided by first selecting a subset of the genes relevant for the clustering of the tissue samples by fitting mixtures of t distributions to rank the genes in order of increasing size of the likelihood ratio statistic for the test of one versus two components in the mixture model. The imposition of a threshold on the likelihood ratio statistic used in conjunction with a threshold on the size of a cluster allows the selection of a relevant set of genes. However, even this reduced set of genes will usually be too large for a normal mixture model to be fitted directly to the tissues, and so the use of mixtures of factor analyzers is exploited to reduce effectively the dimension of the feature space of genes. Results: The usefulness of the EMMIX-GENE approach for the clustering of tissue samples is demonstrated on two well-known data sets on colon and leukaemia tissues. For both data sets, relevant subsets of the genes are able to be selected that reveal interesting clusterings of the tissues that are either consistent with the external classification of the tissues or with background and biological knowledge of these sets.
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The importance of founder events in promoting evolutionary changes on islands has been a subject of long-running controversy. Resolution of this debate has been hindered by a lack of empirical evidence from naturally founded island populations. Here we undertake a genetic analysis of a series of historically documented, natural colonization events by the silvereye species-complex (Zosterops lateralis), a group used to illustrate the process of island colonization in the original founder effect model. Our results indicate that single founder events do not affect levels of heterozygosity or allelic diversity, nor do they result in immediate genetic differentiation between populations. Instead, four to five successive founder events are required before indices of diversity and divergence approach that seen in evolutionarily old forms. A Bayesian analysis based on computer simulation allows inferences to be made on the number of effective founders and indicates that founder effects are weak because island populations are established from relatively large flocks. Indeed, statistical support for a founder event model was not significantly higher than for a gradual-drift model for all recently colonized islands. Taken together, these results suggest that single colonization events in this species complex are rarely accompanied by severe founder effects, and multiple founder events and/or long-term genetic drift have been of greater consequence for neutral genetic diversity.
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Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.